CASE STUDY ON PROBABILITY

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Unit No.5.
PROBABILITY
Presented By:
Dr. V. M. Tidake
Ph. D (Financial Management), MBA(FM), MBA(HRM) BE(Chem)
Dean, EDP & Associate Professor MBA
1
Sanjivani College of Engineering, Kopargaon
Department of MBA
www.sanjivanimba.org.in

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302-DECISION SCIENCE
Unit No.5. Probability
5.10 Case 7:
Probability
Presented By:
Dr. V. M. Tidake
Ph. D (Financial Management), MBA(FM), MBA(HRM) BE(Chem)
Dean EDP & Associate Professor MBA
2
Sanjivani College of Engineering, Kopargaon
Department of MBA
www.sanjivanimba.org.in

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NETWORK ANALYSIS
 At the End of the Session Student will be able to
understand-
A. Case 7: Probability

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Probability
Probability that a man will be alive 25 years hence is 0.3
and the probability that his wife will be alive 25 years
hence is 0.4. Find the probability that 25 years hence-
i. Both will be alive,
ii. Only the man will be alive,
iii. Only the woman will be alive,
iv. At least one of them will be alive.

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Probability
Let, A Event that man is alive 25 years hence
B His wife will be alive 25 years hence
𝑃 𝐴 = 0.3 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 𝐵 = 0.4
𝑃 𝑚𝑎𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑏𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 = 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 0.3 = 0.7
𝑃 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑎𝑛 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑏𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 = 𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − 0.4= 0.6

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Probability
i) Probability that man and his wife will be alive
= P(AՈB)
= P 𝐴 . 𝑃 𝐵
= 0.3*0.4= 0.12
ii) Probability that only man is alive i.e. man will be alive and
his wife not
= P(AՈB)
= P(A).P(B) = 0.3*0.6 = 0.18

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Probability
iii) Similarly probability that only woman will be
alive is-
= P(AՈB)
= P(A).P(B) = 0.7*0.4 = 0.28
iv) Probability that at least one of them is alive is
= P(AՍB)
= P(A) + P(B) - P(AՈB) = (0.3) + (0.4) – (0.12) =
0.58

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EXERCISE
 Solve the Case 7 on Probability.

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For More Details Contact1
Dr. V M Tidake
tidkevishal@gmail.com
tidkevishalmba@sanjivani.org.in