Gold Analysis : Reaches 1,820.00 Level

1. Gold Analysis: Reaches 1,820.00
Level

2. Points To Be Covered Today:
• The Rate Had Reached The 1,820.00 Mark
• GBP/USD Analysis
• XAU/USD Bears Await Break Below 100-day SMA At $1,796
• Gold Also Capitalized On Risk-off Flows
• Gold Also Capitalized On Risk-off Flows
• XAU/USD Continued To Move Sideways
• Gold Could Stay Resilient
• Gold Technical Outlook
• Gold Sentimental Poll

3. The Rate Had Reached The 1,820.00 Mark
• On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's monetary statement caused a drop, which tested
the support zone below the 1,795.00 mark.
• The support zone held and the yellow metal's price started a surge, which passed the
resistance of the 55, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages and broke the upper trend
line of a channel down pattern.
• By the middle of Thursday's trading, the rate had reached the 1,820.00 mark.
• In the case that the price continues to surge, the metal could reach the resistance zone
that surrounds the 1,825.00 mark. Above it, other round price levels could provide
resistance.
• On the other hand, a potential decline would look for support in the 1,810.00 level before
reaching the 55, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages.

4. XAU/USD

5. GBP/USD Analysis
• The GBP/USD currency exchange rate has passed the resistance of the 1.3900
marks and the weekly R2 simple pivot point at 1.3919. The next target for the rate
appears to be the 1.4000 level.
• If the rate reaches and passes the resistance of the 1.4000 marks, the pair, in
theory, should reach for the combined resistance of the 1.4050 marks and the
weekly R3 simple pivot point at the same exact level.
• However, if the 1.4000 mark holds, as it did in late June, the pair could look for
support in the 1.3900 level and trade sideways until it is approached by the 55 and
100-hour simple moving averages from below.

6. GBP/USD analysis - I

7. Gold Breaks Out All Eyes On 1860
• On today's daily watchlist our main focus is Gold and the USD. After
yesterday's FOMC day the DXY broke the reversal pattern that we
had been following for over a week now.
• We remain very long biased Gold, even more after yesterday's
Inflation speach by Chairman Powell.
• The DXY broke with the revesal pattern at the 93 level and with the
Federal Reserve keeping the pace on this round of QE we see even
more downside in the near future.

8. XAU/USD Bears Await Break Below 100-day SMA At
$1,796
• Gold closed near the lower limit of the weekly channel.
• Additional losses are likely if XAU/USD breaks below the 100-day SMA.
• FOMC meeting and US Q2 GDP data highlight next week’s economic calendar.
• Following a four-week winning streak, the XAU/USD pair struggled to make a
decisive move in either direction and fluctuated between key technical levels.
• After rising above $1,820 on Tuesday, gold turned south in the second half of the
week but managed to close the week a little above the key 100-day SMA, which is
currently located at $1,796.

9. Gold Also Capitalized On Risk-off Flows
• In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases and
fundamental developments, risk perception remained the primary
market driver earlier in the week.
• The sharp decline witnessed in Wall Street’s main indexes on
Monday and Tuesday allowed the greenback to find demand.
• However, gold also capitalized on risk-off flows, suggesting that the
precious metal is looking to recapture its safe-haven status and
limited XAU/USD’s upside.

10. XAU/USD Continued To Move Sideways
• Although the USD lost its strength amid the improving market sentiment mid-week,
XAU/USD continued to move sideways in its weekly range.
• On Thursday, the US Department of Labor reported there were 419,000 initial claims
for unemployment benefits in the US during the week ending July 17.
• This reading came in worse than the market expectation of 350,000 but was largely
ignored by market participants.
• Other data from the US showed that Existing Home Sales increased by 1.4% on a
monthly basis while the national median home price for existing homes increased by
23.4% from June 2020 to $363,000.

11. The ECB Revised Its Forward Guidance
• In the meantime, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday
that it left the interest rates unchanged on the main refinancing operations,
the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility unchanged at 0.00%,
0.25% and -0.50%, respectively, as expected.
• In its policy statement, the ECB revised its forward guidance and said that it
will allow a temporary overshoot of inflation before taking policy action.
• The ECB’s commitment to a dovish policy outlook weighed on the shared
currency and helped the USD continue to outperform its rivals.

12. The IHS Markit’s Preliminary PMI Reports
• On Friday, the IHS Markit’s preliminary PMI reports revealed that the economic
activity in the manufacturing sector continued to expand at a record-setting pace in
July with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 63.1 from 62.1 in June.
• On a negative note, the Services PMI edged lower to 59.8 from 64.6 and fell short of
analysts’ estimate of 64.8. Commenting on the data, "inflationary pressures and
supply constraints – both in terms of labour and materials shortages - nevertheless
remain major sources of uncertainty among businesses.
• As does the delta variant, all of which has pushed business optimism about the year
ahead to the lowest seen so far this year," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business
Economist at IHS Markit.

13. The Conference Board’s (CB) Consumer
Confidence Index
• Next week will be quite busy with regards to high-tier data releases.
• On Tuesday, June Durable Goods will be released from the US alongside the
Conference Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence Index.
• The University of Michigan’s (UoM) preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for
July showed a negative shift in consumer sentiment and a sharp increase in
inflation expectations.
• A similar picture in the CB’s report is likely to provide a boost to the USD.

14. FOMC
• On Wednesday, the FOMC will announce its Interest Rate Decision and
publish the Monetary Policy Statement.
• While delivering his prepared remarks at a congressional hearing earlier in
the month, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell said the job market was still a
ways off from progress needed to begin the bond-buying taper.
• However, policymakers are expected to discuss the tapering plan going
forward at next week’s meeting and a signal toward a reduction in asset
purchases before the end of the year is likely to lift the greenback.

15. Gold Could Stay Resilient
• Nevertheless, gold could stay resilient if a hawkish shift in
the Fed’s policy outlook triggers a selloff in US stocks.
• On the other hand, the Fed could opt out to adopt a more
cautious tone due to the uncertainty caused by the
coronavirus delta variant and weigh heavily on the USD by
hinting at a possible delay in tapering.

16. US Bureau Of Economic Analysis
• On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its initial
estimate of the second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, which
is expected to improve to 7.9% on a yearly basis from 6.4%.
• Finally, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s
preferred gauge of inflation, will be featured in the US economic docket on
Friday.
• Annual Core PCE inflation is forecast to rise to 3.7% from 3.4% in June. A
stronger-than-expected inflation reading could support the USD ahead of the
weekend and vice versa.

17. Gold Technical Outlook
• Gold’s near-term technical outlook remains neutral with a bearish bias as the price
stays near the lower limit of the weekly consolidation channel. Additionally, the
Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart retreated below 50,
suggesting that buyers are struggling to remain in control.
• Nonetheless, sellers could wait for XAU/USD to make a daily close below $1,796
(100-day SMA) before looking to ramp up the bearish pressure. Below that level,
$1,790 (Friday low) aligns as interim support ahead of $1,775 (Fibonacci 61.8
retracement April-June uptrend).
• On the flip side, the 200-day SMA seems to have formed a tough resistance at
$1,820. In case buyers lift the price above that hurdle, $1,830 (Fibonacci 38.2%
retracement) and $1,835 (50-day SMA) could be seen as the next targets.

18. Gold Technical Outlook - I

19. Gold Sentimental Poll

20. Gold Analysis: Reaches 1,820.00
Level

21. Thanks for listening
Gold Analysis: Reaches 1,820.00 Level