Theory and methods in Climate scenarios.

1. S C E N A R I O S
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
W H Y
W H A T
H O W
Deep in our hearts,
we would all choose
a scenario with no
surprises. —Pierre Wack

2. W H Y S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
 BECAUSE WE CAN ACT
 BECAUSE WE SEEK TO ANTICIPATE UNKNOWNS (DISCONTINUITIES)
 BECAUSE TRANSISTIONS ARE ACCELERATING

3. W H Y N O W ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
BECAUSE WE CAN ACT
… at least more effectively
than we could before…
Technology
 Climate models
 Tracking sea ice/glacier loss
 Satellite imagery
 Spatial modeling
(Cellular Automata)
We understand better the
impact of our choices
We know we can do anything
we put our minds to

4. W H Y S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
DISCONTINUITIES
 i.e. atomic warfare: It’s not
about the future
(Herman Kahn).
 We know the future will be
different from the past, so
why project?
 Exogenous events
unanticipated by science
‘We live in Extremistan, not Mediocristan’
—Nassim Nicholas Taleb

5. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
W H Y S C E N A R I O S ?
BECAUSE TRANSITIONS ARE ACCELERATING:

6. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

7. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

8. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

9. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

10. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

11. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

12. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

13. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
F I R S T T R A N S I T I O N

14. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
S E C O N D T R A N S I T I O N

15. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
T H I R D T R A N S I T I O N

16. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
S E C O N D A N D T H I R D T R A N S I T I O N

17. W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS?  Top graphs more like scenarios
 Timeline based on current
knowledge / technologies

18. W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS? Assumptions:
 Policy likely inadequate
 Markets likely to lead to regime
change

19. W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS? Assumptions:
 Policy likely to favor natural gas
 Markets likely to favor solar PV

20. W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS? Assumptions:
 Markets lag on decarbonization
 Policy best tool for eliminating
liquid fuels for passenger
vehicles

21. W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
Not about the future
Not about predictions
IT’S ABOUT CONSEQUENCES FROM CHOICES WE MAKE RIGHT NOW.

22. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
LADIES HOME JOURNAL, 1900
F A L S E S O M E W H A T T R U E T R U T H Y
P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S

23. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN FOR HILDEBRAND’S CHOCOLATE, 1900 Themes: Transportation, Leisure
Allegory?: North Pole warming
Sci-Fi?
P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S

24. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
ADVERTISEMENT FROM JAPAN: MID-CENTURY Themes: Transportation,
Urbanization
P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S

25. P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
FILM CONCEPT ART, 2006 Themes: Transportation,
Overconsumption, Hopelessness,
Urbanization

26. S C E N A R I O S N O W
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
APPLETON ON LYNAS
Six degrees of climate inferno:
 Below 2˚ = avoid apocalypse.
 IPCC hasn’t imagined
Dante’s darkest scenarios.
1˚
2˚
3˚
4˚
5˚
6˚
APOCALYPSENOAPOCALYPSE
?
NOIPCCDATA
7+˚
1˚
2˚
3˚
4˚
5˚
6˚
7˚
Drought in W. US
‘Day turns to night’
Flight from S. Spain
Super-hurricane
Odessa: Texas
Mass extinction
Beyond
IPCC estimate*

27. 3˚
S C E N A R I O S N O W
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
REVISED IPCC SCENARIOS (2013) * Predicted change from
period 1986-2005
Source: IPCC
2˚
4˚
5˚
6˚
7+˚
Predicted temperature increases under two scenarios
Rise in average surface temperature by 2081-2100*
Lowest scenario (RCP 2.6) Highest scenario (RCP 8.5)

28. C O N V E N T I O N A L
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
MARKET
FORTRESS
WORLD
ECO-
COMMUNAL
POLICY BARBARISM
NEW
SUSTAIN-
ABILITY
 Growth outpaces efficiency
 Private Sector, International
banks, WTO
 UN is ‘toothless
 Brown Tech
 Government Initiatives
 Global Citizens movement
 May be sustainable,
but may be undesirable
 Could evolve into
New Sustainability
 'Planetary apartheid’
 Rich in protective enclaves
 Fortress collapse would
lead to breakdown
 Breakdown
 Think Mad Max
 Could have a ‘second wind’,
evolving into Eco-Communalism
 Earth Stewards
 Think Gandhi and friends
in Hobbiton
 Permaculture
 Market-constraining policies
 Poor and Rich de-polarize
 UN supersedes nation-state
 Green Tech
B R E A K D O W N S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y

29. W I N N E R S A N D L O S E R S
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
 Private Sector
 International banks, WTO
 Brown Tech
 Government
 Global Citizens movement
 The rich—sort-of
 Survivalist enthusiasts
 Hippies
 Global Citizens Movement
 The middle class
 UN
 Green Tech
MARKET
FORTRESS
WORLD
ECO-
COMMUNAL
POLICY BARBARISM
NEW
SUSTAIN-
ABILITY

30. W I N N E R S A N D L O S E R S
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
MARKET
FORTRESS
WORLD
ECO-
COMMUNAL
POLICY BARBARISM
NEW
SUSTAIN-
ABILITY
 Governments
 Private enterprise
 The poor
 Everyone
 The rich
 No-one

31. S C E N A R I O M A T R I X
OGILVY AND SCHWARTZ
List factors and trends
Choose 2 most critical
Assemble in matrix
List potential outcomes in
respective cells
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
 Outcome
 Outcome
 Outcome
 Outcome
A B
A
B

32. Pop. Growth
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
 Outcome
 Outcome
 Outcome
 Outcome
Low High
Low
High
EnergyDescent
 Population growth
 Global governance
 Oil prices
 Urbanization
 Energy descent
 Solar technology
 Etc.

33. D I S C U S S I O N
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
WHAT REASONS DO WE HAVE TO BE PESSIMISTIC / OPTIMISTIC?
WHAT DO WE THINK IS LIKELY?
WHAT ARE SOME DISCONTINUITIES WE HAVEN’T CONSIDERED?