The mosaic of causal theory
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The document discusses causal pluralism and proposes a "causal mosaic" approach to causal theory. It argues that causality cannot be reduced to a single concept but rather is made up of multiple concepts. These concepts address different scientific and philosophical problems and form a network or "mosaic" where each concept plays a specific role. The causal mosaic is dynamic and depends on scientific and philosophical perspectives. The document advocates a pluralistic approach that uses examples and counterexamples to build connections between concepts rather than seeking a single winning account of causation.
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The mosaic of causal theory
- 1. The mosaic of causal theory* Federica Russo Philosophy | Humanities | Amsterdam russofederica.wordpress.com | @federicarusso *Joint work with Phyllis Illari
- 2. Overview Approaches to causality Conceptual analysis, analysis of scientific practice Causal pluralism A plurality of pluralism Fragmenting causal theory How to build a causal mosaic 2
- 4. Conceptual analysis What explicates the concept of ‘causality’ What makes causal claims true What is causality, metaphysically 4
- 5. How good are intuitions? Exploit everyday intuitions to draw conclusions about the metaphysics of causation from everyday or toy examples Examples The ‘Billy and Suzy’ episodes The assassins … Some conclusions There are two concepts of cause: production and dependence Counterfactual accounts are seriously flawed … 5
- 6. Analysis of scientific practice Growing CitS / PSP / PI Philosophical questions about causation (and other topics) are motivated by methodological and practical problems in real science Start from scientific practice to bottom up philosophy Partly descriptive and partly normative Examples Causal assessment in medicine Causal reasoning in quantitative social science … Some conclusions Causal assessment has two evidential components: mechanisms and difference- making ‘Variation’ (rather than regularity) guides causal reasoning … 6
- 8. Making sense of a vast intellectual enterprise Philosophical theorising about causes Long history, ups and downs, harsh criticisms, dominant views, etc Expansion of philosophical theorising about causes Beyond physics, attention to the special sciences, and medicine Attention for questions about use, besides traditional metaphysics, epistemology, and semantics 8
- 9. How many concepts? Many! Causality Polysemic, thick concept Causal verbs Pulling, pushing, binding, … Causal methods Tracking what varies with what Understanding what produces what, and how, and when Different sources of evidence Evidence of difference making, of production … 9
- 10. 10 Causal pluralism: causality cannot be reduced to one single concept but has to be analysed using several concepts
- 12. Types of causing Anscombian pluralism: pulling, pushing, binding, … Aristotelian causes Concepts of causation Hall: Dependence vs production Types of inferences Inferential bases, inferential targets. Epistemic causality Sources of evidence Difference-making and mechanisms Methods for causal inference Quantitative, qualitative, observational, experimental, … 12
- 14. 5 philosophical questions Metaphysics What is causality? What kind of things are causes and effects? Semantics What does it mean that C causes E? Epistemology What notions guide causal reasoning? How can we use C to explain E? Methodology How to establish whether C causes E? Or how much of C causes E? Use What to do once we know that C causes E? 5 scientific problems Inference Does C cause E? To what extent? Prediction What to expect if C does (not) cause E? Explanation How does C cause or prevent E? Control What factors to hold fixed to study the relation between C and E? Reasoning What considerations enter in establishing whether / how / to what extent C causes E? 14
- 17. Inference, Prediction, Explanation, Control, Reasoning Causal Mosaic Metaphysics, Semantics, Epistemology, Methodology, Use Necessary and sufficient Levels Evidence Probabilistic causality Counterfact uals Manipulatio n Invariance Exogeneity Simpson’s Paradox Process Mechanism Information Dispositions Regularity Variation Action Inference Validity Truth 17
- 18. Unifying the fragments into the ‘causal mosaic’ A (causal) mosaic is picture made of tiles Each fragment has a role that Is determined by the scientific challenge / philosophical question it addresses Stands in a relation with neighboring concepts The causal mosaic is dynamic, partly depends on scientists’ / philosophers’ perspectives 18
- 19. PHILOSOPHICAL METHODOLOGY AND PHILOSOPHY OF CAUSALITY 19
- 20. The philosophical consequences of causal pluralism Use of examples and counterexamples No winning concepts Building networks of concepts 20
- 21. Accounts of causality Counterexamples Scope Relevant questions How many Found in the literature All possible worlds. What does causation logically mean? One logically possible example. Witches casting spells; Angels protecting glasses. Worlds close to the actual world. What is causation metaphysically? One metaphysically possible example. World with reverse temporal direction; Salmon’s moving spot of light. This world. What is causation in this world? One or more real examples. Kinetic theory of gases / quantum mechanics; Billy and Suzy / bombing the enemy town. Some region in this world. What is causation in biochemistry, or physics? A few real examples in the relevant domain. Causality in protein synthesis mechanisms. Some region of this world at some time. What kind of causal explanation can we give of the economic crisis in 1929? Can we give the same kind of explanation of the economic crisis now? A few real examples in the relevant domain at the relevant time; Typical not skewed examples. Causality in the discovery of protein synthesis. Causality in systems biological approaches to protein synthesis. 21
- 22. TO SUM UP AND CONCLUDE 22
- 23. Pluralisms Philosophical investigation of causality has at least two main traditions Conceptual analysis Analysis of scientific practice Analyses of scientific practices report a plurality of pluralisms In the methods, concepts, meanings, sources of evidence, … Can we make (philosophical) sense of such pluralism? 23
- 24. Liberalising philosophy of causality Encompassing different questions, methods, approaches Beyond causality, relevant for neighbouring debates 24
- 25. 25