Lynn Sess11 101509

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  • dT and %P: change something, rigid, see what it did No new variabilitySynthetic Statistical: make a long time series, tweak mathematics, use statistics
  • Lynn Sess11 101509

    1. 1. Climate Change Modeling Can you get what you want?<br />October 28, 2009<br />Elissa Lynn<br />Senior Meteorologist, CA Dept. Water Resources<br />elynn@water.ca.gov<br />
    2. 2. Climate Change Modeling Can you get what you want?<br />you<br />October 28, 2009<br />Elissa Lynn<br />Senior Meteorologist, CA Dept. Water Resources<br />elynn@water.ca.gov<br />
    3. 3. Background<br /><ul><li> M.S., Atmospheric Sciences </li></ul>– Climate modeling<br /><ul><li> B.A., Physics
    4. 4. 17 year TV Meteorologist
    5. 5. Emmy Award, Literacy Awards
    6. 6. Teacher/ College Instructor
    7. 7. Senior Meteorologist; Outreach</li></li></ul><li>Climate Change<br />
    8. 8. 10 Warmest Years<br />on Earth<br />Seven of eight warmest years have occurred since 2001 <br />2005<br />1998<br />2002<br />2003<br />2007<br />2006<br />2004<br />2001<br />1997<br />2008<br />(Since 1880, source National Climate Data Center)<br />
    9. 9. Temperature Trends<br />Globally:<br /> 10 warmest years <br /> since 1997<br />128 year record; Climatic Data Center<br />
    10. 10. Temperature Trends<br />United States:<br /> 6 of 10 warmest <br /> since 1998<br />Source: NASA, NCDC, AMS<br />
    11. 11. Temperature Trends<br />California:<br /> 1934 still hottest <br />Source: CA State Climatologist<br />
    12. 12. Climate Change vs.Global Warming<br />
    13. 13. Climate Change vs.Global Warming<br />NOT just hotter<br />
    14. 14. Climate Change vs.Global Warming<br />NOT just hotter<br /> Precipitation; More-Less<br /> Different spatial distribution of Rain<br /> Changing Snow Levels<br /> Sea-level Rise<br /> Air Quality<br /> Atmosphere/Ocean Circulation<br />
    15. 15.
    16. 16.
    17. 17. Why so complicated?<br />Data collection<br />Computer model variability<br />Feedback mechanisms?<br />Spatial Resolution<br />
    18. 18. Daisy World<br />
    19. 19. Daisy World<br />
    20. 20. Daisy World<br />
    21. 21. MODELING stuff<br />Math Equations = Parameterization<br />PHYSICS not terribly hard<br />
    22. 22. MODELING stuff<br />Some processes <br /> poorly understood, handled<br />Especially CLOUDS<br />
    23. 23. MODELING stuff<br />Can’t model things <br /> we don’t understand<br />Feedback Mechanisms<br />
    24. 24. MODELING stuff<br />Long-range trends, <br /> Larger-scale answers<br />Resolution Too Coarse<br />
    25. 25. California<br />in a Global Climate Model<br />
    26. 26. MODELING stuff<br />Models have Bias <br />You need to quantify<br />UNCERTAINTY<br />
    27. 27. MODELING stuff<br />Real World responding faster!<br />How to make <br />DECISIONS?<br />
    28. 28. Observed Impactsin California<br />1o F Increase/ 100 yrs<br />
    29. 29. Observed Impactsin California<br />1o F Increase/ 100 yrs<br />Warmer at night<br /> Warmer in winter<br />
    30. 30. CA temps 1900-1950 vs. 1950-2000<br />Highs p0.6o F<br />Average p0.9o F<br />Lows p1.4o F<br />
    31. 31. CA Mean Temperatures<br />oF<br />Source: Western Region Climate Center<br />
    32. 32. Observed Impactsin California<br />1o F Increase/ 100 yrs<br /> Warmer at night<br /> Warmer in winter<br />7” sea level rise<br />
    33. 33. Sea Level at Golden Gate<br />Sea Level Rise at Golden Gate Bridge<br />
    34. 34. Sea Level Rise<br /><ul><li>Thermal expansion of the ocean #1
    35. 35. Melting of polar ice caps, glaciers
    36. 36. Vertical land movement</li></li></ul><li>Observed Impactsin California<br />1o F Increase/ 100 yrs<br /> Warmer at night<br /> Warmer in winter<br />7” sea level rise<br />Earlier Snowmelt<br />
    37. 37.
    38. 38.
    39. 39. Observed Impactsin California<br />1o F Increase/ 100 yrs<br /> Warmer at night<br /> Warmer in winter<br />7” sea level rise<br />Earlier Snowmelt<br />Snowpack Loss: 10% already<br />
    40. 40. Snowpack Reduction<br />Source: Scripps Institute of Oceanography<br />
    41. 41. Observed Impactsin California<br />1o F Increase/ 100 yrs<br /> Warmer at night<br /> Warmer in winter<br />7” sea level rise<br />Earlier Snowmelt<br />Snowpack Loss: 10% already<br />Increasing River Peak Flows<br />
    42. 42. Peak 3-day River Flows<br />
    43. 43. More as Rain_ bigger flood<br /> New<br /> Historical<br />
    44. 44. What about Me?<br />
    45. 45. What about Me?<br />Climate models do not SCALE well<br />Regional Impacts vary <br />Can they give local information?<br />
    46. 46. ?<br />Global Climate Simulation Model<br />?<br />Hydrologic Models<br />?<br />CO2 Emissions Scenario<br />?<br />Operations Models<br />Global-to-Local “Climate Downscaling”<br />?<br />Adapted from Cayan and Knowles, SCRIPPS/USGS, 2003<br />We’ve got Issues!<br />
    47. 47. Downscaling<br />Converting Global model output<br /> into Regional or Local information<br />More specific, Higher resolution, More useful<br />Courtesy Jamie Anderson, DWR SWP= State Water Project CVP=Central Valley Project<br />
    48. 48. Images from <br />Mike Dettinger, USGS<br />
    49. 49. Downscaling Methods<br />Dynamical<br />Statistical<br />Empirical<br />
    50. 50. Who’s Doing What?<br />What data is available?<br />Figure: Maurer (Santa Clara), Hidalgo (Scripps)<br />Downscaling<br />
    51. 51. Take Home Message<br /><ul><li> Difficult challenges
    52. 52. Work / Resources being committed
    53. 53. Some data already available
    54. 54. Several years away from detail, </li></ul> but enough information for you to plan <br />EARLY<br />
    55. 55. Thank Yous<br />Dr. Michael Anderson, DWR <br />State Climatologist<br />John Andrew, DWR <br />Asst. Deputy Dir, Climate Change<br />Jamie Anderson<br />DWR, Bay-Delta Office<br />Mike Dettinger, USGS - Scripps<br />Phil Duffy, Climatecentral.org<br />Ed Maurer, Santa Clara Univ.<br />Hugo Hidalgo/Dan Cayan, Scripps<br />Levi Brekke, USBR<br />

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