Web Presentationp2

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  • For today’s presentation potential climate change impacts have been broken into 6 somewhat interrelated categories all centered around the principle that climate change will have consequences for the earth system and human lives.I will discuss the first 3 categories…Great Lakes levels…Lake ice cover…and Severe Weather. Mary will address the last 3.Let’s start with Lake Levels.[CLICK]
  • This graph presents the range of annual temperature change expected over the Great Lakes basin in the future. The data is from the Global Climate Model simulations used to predict the change in lake levels that we discussed on the previous slide. [CLICK] On the left side of this graph you can see a purple line zigzagging across the 0 degree temperature departure level from 1900 to 2000. This is the variability of the average ANNUAL temperature over the Great Lakes basin over the last 100 years. Zero marks the average temperature from 1971-2000…so the average annual temperature in the Great Lakes basin didn’t change much between 1900 and about 1990. In the 1990s the temperature began to rise Now look at the right side of the graph. These colored lines represent future temperature projections, using the “business as usual” and “Low” CO2 emissions scenarios discussed in the previous slide. [CLICK] Blue represents the low carbon emissions scenario… [CLICK] while Red is the “business as usual” scenario. So what does this mean? The higher lines represent the 95th percentile and the lower lines represent the 5th percentile. In other words…95% of the model runs indicated temperatures fell at or below the top line…and 5 % of the model runs fell below the bottom line. [CLICK]So 90% of the model temperature forecasts for the “Business as usual” scenario in 2090 fell between these two red lines. Under this scenario, the average temperature in the Great Lakes basin in 2090 will likely be about 6-12 degrees higher than the 1971-2000 average. Now let’s stop the discussion for a moment and lets you participate to in a poll. [Lynne will Launch the poll- she will send via the chat function notice to Steve when 85% of the participants have participated] Please answer the following question: Do you think climate change will have an impact on ice cover of the Great Lakes in this century? A. No – ice cover similar to what we see today; B. Yes – more ice cover because of colder winter temperatures C. Yes- less ice cover because of warmer winter temperatures; D. No idea E. None of the above. You will have one minute to complete this poll.[After Lynne “shares” the results of the poll, Steve will CLICK and advance to the next slide]
  • Web Presentationp2

    1. 1. CLIMATE CHANGE WILL HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE EARTH SYSTEM AND HUMAN LIVES<br />Lake Levels<br />Melting ice<br />Severe Weather<br />Acidification<br />Ecosystem Changes<br />Human Health Concerns<br />Intro| Climate |Lake Levels|Ice |Severe Weather |Acidification |Ecosystems |Humans<br />1<br />
    2. 2. Intro| Climate |Lake Levels |Ice |Severe Weather |Acidification |Ecosystems |Humans<br />2<br />Lake Levels<br />What are Climate Variables?<br />OR<br />2<br />
    3. 3. Intro| Climate |Lake Levels |Ice |Extreme Weather |Acidification |Ecosystems |Humans<br />3<br />Lake Level Predictions<br />Lake Michigan 2080 Lake Level Departures<br />1. Lake levels fluctuate naturally<br />2. Hydrological prediction models indicate that lake levels are likely to drop<br />Lake Level Departures (ft)<br />Low<br />“Business as usual”<br />Medium<br />Carbon Emission Scenarios<br />
    4. 4. Intro| Climate |Lake Levels |Ice |Severe Weather |Acidification |Ecosystems |Humans<br />4<br />90% of “business as usual” scenario results<br />4<br />
    5. 5. 5<br />Go ahead—click<br />Do you think climate change will have an impact on ice cover of the Great Lakes in this century? <br />A. No – ice cover similar to what we see today<br />B. Yes – more ice cover because of colder winter temperatures<br />C. Yes- less ice cover because of warmer winter temperatures<br />D. No idea<br />E. None of the above<br />Intro| Climate |Lake Levels|Ice |Severe Weather |Acidification |Ecosystems |Humans<br />5<br />
    6. 6. 6<br />You are correct!<br />Do you think climate change will have an impact on ice cover of the Great Lakes in this century? <br />A. No – ice cover similar to what we see today<br />B. Yes – more ice cover because of colder winter temperatures<br />D. No idea<br />E. None of the above<br /> C. Yes- less ice cover because of warmer winter temperatures<br />Intro| Climate |Lake Levels|Ice |Severe Weather |Acidification |Ecosystems |Humans<br />6<br />
    7. 7. 7<br />The correct answer is “C” <br />Do you think climate change will have an impact on ice cover of the Great Lakes in this century? <br />A. No – ice cover similar to what we see today<br />B. Yes – more ice cover because of colder winter temperatures<br />D. No idea<br />E. None of the above<br /> C. Yes- less ice cover because of warmer winter temperatures<br />Intro| Climate |Lake Levels|Ice |Severe Weather |Acidification |Ecosystems |Humans<br />7<br />

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