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Metallurgical and Materials Engineering

IIT Kharagpur
Summer Internship Presentation
• Explore the feasibility of a predictive model for property estimation in NBM.

Current status:
Theoretical
model based on
heat transfer
calculations
which is
highly
inaccurate.
The operator
uses his
experience.

YS distribution

After Implementation:
A machine learning model trained with all possible data can be used for online
prediction of controlling parameters.
NBM LAYOUT
Billet Temperature
Pyrometer

A

B
Chemistry (C, Mn)

WB1

WB2

Testing(YS,UTS,C,Mn)

FRT
Approach

WB1flow rate
WB2 flow rate

CS=16
mm
500D

UTS/YS>1.15

Billet Temperature

YS
UTS

Mill Speed

CS=12
mm

Carbon

CS=10
mm

Manganese
YS vs FRT

CE was found to be insignificant in
predicting YS.
Multiple Regression did not give any
satisfactory results.
Problem with YS: Taken from any
random point of rebar.

500D,16mm
The operator operates at
atleast 2 different ranges of
water flow rates.
Towards Clustering
• Fuzzy clustering
• K-means clustering
K means clustering:
• 3 clusters created by taking into
consideration WB1, WB2, FRT
• All the clusters had similar range of FRT
and Billet Temperature but differed in
WB1 and WB2 ranges.

Multiple Linear
Regression

•

•

Satisfactory relation was obtained only
for cluster which contained low values of
water box flow rate implying negligible
leakage.
The results of Cluster Analysis varied for
different data periods.
Split nozzle design
•
•

BLT
FRT

•
WB1

•
•
•

WB2

WB1 Membership Fcn

1

2

WB1 values

3

Takes into account the
error in taking readings.
Inputs and outputs are
assigned membership
functions.
Membership functions
create fuzzy sets.
Results:
RMSE in FRT ~ 11.6C
Predicted values are
concentrated around the
mean
ANN Architecture: ANN with 1 hidden layer having 10 neurons.

WB1
WB2
Billet Temp
Speed

FRT

Linear transfer function

Training Data=70%
Validation Data=15%
Test Data=15%

Backpropagation Learning Algorithm:
Works by minimizing error with respect
to weights.
Results for data on which network was trained

r2=0.88
• ANN model predicted extremely well (r2>0.84) for unseen test data on which it was
trained.
• Predicted well (r2>0.60) for untrained data which followed a recognizable pattern.
• Failed to predict data which didn’t follow any trained pattern.
• This showed that data varied considerably with time.
• Nozzle wear out increases with time.
Cooling in Nozzles

Nozzle
Bore
Diameter

Rebar
Diameter

Sufficient water pressure keeps the
rebar floating in the water channel and
do uniform circumferential cooling

Nozzle wear out

Insufficient pressure built up
could not hold the bar in place
and thus uniform
circumferential cooling is not
possible
• Efficiency of water quenching decreases with time due to nozzle wear-out.

A dynamic fuzzy based ANN model with sufficient training can be developed
for online prediction of product properties within a range of +-5 MPa.

Plant Recommendations :
• Leakage minimization.
• Identification of sample taken for tensile testing to correctly
map YS with corresponding FRT.
• Bringing uniformity among operators in different shifts to
reduce data variation with time.
Optimization of rebar production process

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Optimization of rebar production process

  • 1. Metallurgical and Materials Engineering IIT Kharagpur Summer Internship Presentation
  • 2. • Explore the feasibility of a predictive model for property estimation in NBM. Current status: Theoretical model based on heat transfer calculations which is highly inaccurate. The operator uses his experience. YS distribution After Implementation: A machine learning model trained with all possible data can be used for online prediction of controlling parameters.
  • 3. NBM LAYOUT Billet Temperature Pyrometer A B Chemistry (C, Mn) WB1 WB2 Testing(YS,UTS,C,Mn) FRT
  • 4. Approach WB1flow rate WB2 flow rate CS=16 mm 500D UTS/YS>1.15 Billet Temperature YS UTS Mill Speed CS=12 mm Carbon CS=10 mm Manganese
  • 5. YS vs FRT CE was found to be insignificant in predicting YS. Multiple Regression did not give any satisfactory results. Problem with YS: Taken from any random point of rebar. 500D,16mm
  • 6. The operator operates at atleast 2 different ranges of water flow rates. Towards Clustering • Fuzzy clustering • K-means clustering
  • 7. K means clustering: • 3 clusters created by taking into consideration WB1, WB2, FRT • All the clusters had similar range of FRT and Billet Temperature but differed in WB1 and WB2 ranges. Multiple Linear Regression • • Satisfactory relation was obtained only for cluster which contained low values of water box flow rate implying negligible leakage. The results of Cluster Analysis varied for different data periods.
  • 9. • • BLT FRT • WB1 • • • WB2 WB1 Membership Fcn 1 2 WB1 values 3 Takes into account the error in taking readings. Inputs and outputs are assigned membership functions. Membership functions create fuzzy sets. Results: RMSE in FRT ~ 11.6C Predicted values are concentrated around the mean
  • 10. ANN Architecture: ANN with 1 hidden layer having 10 neurons. WB1 WB2 Billet Temp Speed FRT Linear transfer function Training Data=70% Validation Data=15% Test Data=15% Backpropagation Learning Algorithm: Works by minimizing error with respect to weights.
  • 11. Results for data on which network was trained r2=0.88
  • 12. • ANN model predicted extremely well (r2>0.84) for unseen test data on which it was trained. • Predicted well (r2>0.60) for untrained data which followed a recognizable pattern. • Failed to predict data which didn’t follow any trained pattern. • This showed that data varied considerably with time. • Nozzle wear out increases with time.
  • 13. Cooling in Nozzles Nozzle Bore Diameter Rebar Diameter Sufficient water pressure keeps the rebar floating in the water channel and do uniform circumferential cooling Nozzle wear out Insufficient pressure built up could not hold the bar in place and thus uniform circumferential cooling is not possible
  • 14. • Efficiency of water quenching decreases with time due to nozzle wear-out. A dynamic fuzzy based ANN model with sufficient training can be developed for online prediction of product properties within a range of +-5 MPa. Plant Recommendations : • Leakage minimization. • Identification of sample taken for tensile testing to correctly map YS with corresponding FRT. • Bringing uniformity among operators in different shifts to reduce data variation with time.

Editor's Notes

  1. A model was developed based upon theortetical calculations but failed in the complex industrial process environment. It is only the experience of the operator. By analysing the data we can develop an automated model
  2. Layout of the entire nbm with billets entering and finishedrebars being delivered from here. The billet is passed through a reheating furnace to heat it to temperatures about 1040C. Passes through a series of horizontal and vertical rollers then through ……splits into line A and B. ……water boxes(maximum of 6000)……YS is obtained, data collection: the point corresponding to the YS testing is located. We go back in time and map it with the corresponding wbs,frt and blt .20mdistance b/w frt and wb2.
  3. Our final goal is to get a higher u/y ratio. Nbm produces rebars of 3 diff css. Both of them vary in a short range
  4. Variation of YS vs CE is Statistically insignificant because Varied within a very short range from 0.33 to 0.37R square of 0.13.Reason : we gather YS from a random point of each sample. We cannot correlate it with FRT, WB,BLT data as we don’t know the point it is taken from. So we’ll shift our attention to finding b/w FRT and WB1,WB2 BLT
  5. This cluster is for the ideal case. ie no leakages and 100% efficiency
  6. Fuzzy approach was a failure
  7. Prediction with ann if trained for the dayTransfer fcn