Application of the PER method in planning of Areas Evacuation of persons

1. Application of the PERT Method in
Planning of Area Evacuation of Persons
‫اعداد‬
‫الطالب‬
/
‫عبد‬
‫االله‬
‫ثان‬
‫الرقم‬
‫الجامع‬
/731110500

2. Abstract
•
Crisis situations usually come into our lives unexpectedly without a
warning and therefore precise approaches are needed to protect the
population as effectively as possible. An integral part of the process
of managing any activity is the planning phase. The plan affects the
overall quality of the project and its main task is to set the objectives
of the activity (project) and the ways leading to their fulfillment.
Methods of operational analysis form the basis for finding the
optimal solution to the researched problem. They have a wide
practical application in connection with time planning, storage,
passenger transport, distribution of products, operation of public
service systems and other tasks of an economic nature. The subject
of the article is the introduction of a possibility of applying the
network analysis method in the process of planning of an evacuation
of people. The aim of the article is the application of the PERT
method to the processes associated with crisis management and
evacuation of the population, the practical use of the software tool
MS Project, interpretation of results, and pointing out the possible
use of network analysis methods in crisis planning situations
.

3. Introduction
•
Crisis planning means the preparation and
coordination of measures to ensure the functioning
of public authorities, the economy, the internal
order and security of the state, and the civil
protection of the population in times of crisis. Crisis
planning uses documents called contingency plans.
These are documents in which measures for the
solution of a possible crisis situation in certain
professional, spatial, and temporal dimensions are
purposefully elaborated
.

4. •
One of the appropriate tools in creating crisis plans is to apply
the methods included in the field of network analysis as a sub
-group of tasks within the general graphic theory. Network
analysis and methods are used to describe, analyze and
improve the implementation of large -scale operations that
are divided into successive sub -activities. Designing and
controlling crisis plans through the graphs of the network and
using the appropriate network analysis methods with
supporting the appropriate programs has become increasingly
important because crisis management decisions are often
related to saving lives and reducing widespread damage to
property and environment. The aim of the article is to provide
the possibilities of applying the network analysis methods in
the planning process to evacuate people, and to estimate the
times associated with individual evacuation steps and show
the practical use of the MS Project tool to determine the
decisive activities in the evacuation processing and
determining the estimated period

5. Characteristics of the used methods
When analyzing a project using network analysis
methods, it is necessary to perform several
important activities before their computational
implementation, which have a significant impact on
the relevance of the results. These are mainly
:

6. .1
Division of the project into sub-activities
–
list of
activities
.2
2.Estimation of the duration (implementation)
of individual activities
3. Determination of logical / technological
continuity
of individual activities
4. Construction of a network graph by Jablonský
(
2007
)

7. Table 1. Table of time sequences of
individual activities.

8. .
1
.
Compilation of a network graph of
individual activities of the evacuation process

9. Fig. 1. Network graph of evacuation
and critical path of the evacuation
process

10. Table
2
laudividni fo noitaruD .
ssecorp noitaucave eht fo seitivitca

11. Verification of results by Microsoft
Project

12. Fig. 4. Gantt diagram of the
evacuation process by the PERT
method in the Microsoft Project.

13. Conclusion
•
The evacuation securing process consists of a
number of sub-activities that need to be secured
and that follow one another. It is important to
create a system that combines these activities, and
makes it possible to create a probabilistic plan to
protect the life and health of the population. For
such purpose, it is advantageous to choose
network analysis methods that are designed to
plan a process that consists of several sub-
activities. Crisis managers involved in the