Longitudinal data for the analysis of labour market folws. Boschetto B., Discenza A. R., Fiori F., Lucarelli C., Rosati S.

1. Longitudinal Data for the Analysis of Labour Market Flows Enhancement and Social Responsibility of Official Statistics Workshop Roma, Università Europea, April 28-29 2011 Barbara Boschetto [email_address] Antonio R. Discenza [email_address] Francesca Fiori [email_address] Carlo Lucarelli [email_address] Simona Rosati [email_address]

4. Household rotation scheme 2-2-2 50% of the sample overlaps after 1 quarter and 1 year L1 I2 F3 E4 2009 Quarter1 I1 H2 E3 D4 2008 Quarter4 H1 G2 D3 C4 2008 Quarter3 G1 F2 C3 B4 2008 Quarter2 F1 E2 B3 A4 2008 Quarter1 E1 D2 A3 2007 Quarter4 D1 C2 2007 Quarter3 C1 B2 2007 Quarter2 B1 A2 2007 Quarter1 ROTATION GROUP REFERENCE PERIOD

5. Demographic Flows for working age population _ = + = 1.667 _ = + = 1.814 _ = + = _ _ + = Population 2007Q1 (15+) 49.06 People Leaving the Municipality Longitudinal Population 47.399 People Entering into Municipality 1.814 Population 2008Q1 (15+) 49.213 Deaths Children aged 15

11. Complete Matrix with net and gross flows. Quarter 1 2007 – Quarter 1 2008. (Thousands) Employed 20.346 353 1.281 21.980 Unemployed 489 449 514 1.452 Inactive 1.260 757 23.131 25.149 Total 22.095 1.559 24.926 48.581 Total Labour Status at 2008Q1 Inactive Longitudinal Population Employed Unemployed Labour Status at 2001Q2 22.846 1.556 26.021 50.424 Population aged 15+ 2007Q1 49 2 495 547 Deaths 817 102 377 1.296 People Leaving the Municipalities 23.170 1.761 25.870 50.801 Population aged 15+ 2008Q1 Employed Unemployed Inactive Total Labour Status at 2007Q1 Labour Status at 2008Q1 Employed Unemployed Inactive Total 0 0 584 584 Children aged 15 1075 202 359 1.636 People Entering the Municipalities 21.980 1.452 25.149 48.581 Total

12. Complete Matrix with net and gross flows. Quarter 1 2007 – Quarter 1 2008. (Thousands) 49 2 495 547 Deaths Employed 20.346 353 1.281 21.980 Unemployed 489 449 514 1.452 Inactive 1.260 757 23.131 25.149 Total 22.095 1.559 24.926 48.581 Total Labour Status at 2008Q1 Inactive Longitudinal Population Employed Unemployed Labour Status at 2007Q1 Net change due to Longitudinal Population flows + 115 817 102 377 1.296 People Leaving the Municipalities 22.846 1.556 26.021 50.424 Population aged 15+ 2007Q1 0 0 584 584 Children aged 15 1075 202 359 1.636 People Entering the Municipalities 23.170 1.761 25.870 50.801 Population aged 15+ 20087Q1 Net change in cross-sectional employment +324 Net change due to Migratory flows + 258 Net change due to Demographic flows - 49

13. Transition Matrix for longitudinal population. Quarter 1 2007 – Quarter 1 2008. (Thousands) Employed 20.346 353 1.281 21.980 Unemployed 489 449 514 1.452 Inactive 1.260 757 23.131 25.149 Total 22.095 1.559 24.926 48.581 Total Labour Status at 2008Q1 Inactive Longitudinal Population Employed Unemployed Labour Status at 2007Q1 Net change +115 Leaving employment 1.634 Entering employment 1.749 Persistence in employment almost 3.400 movements

14. Analysis of Employment from Quarter 1 2004 – Quarter 1 2008 using 12 months longitudinal data

15. Persons leaving or entering in employment (thousands) Entering in employment Leaving employment Number of persons 3.383 Number of persons 3.253

16. Employment inflows. Share by labour status at the beginning of the period 61% 72% Increasing share of inactivity to employment flow

17. Women have lower persistence probability and higher transition probability to inactivity Employment: persistence and transition probabilities by gender and region. 2007Q1 – 2008Q1 South has lower persistence probability and much higher transition probability

18. High segmentation in persistence and transition Employment: persistence and transition probabilities by job characteristics. 2007Q1 – 2008Q1

19. Analysis of Unemployment from Quarter 1 2004 – Quarter 1 2008 using 12 months longitudinal data

20. Unemployment: persistence probability by gender Increasing persistence probability

21. Unemployment: persistence probability by Nuts 1

22. Unemployment: transition probability to employment by duration of search at the starting point Transition probability is inversely correlated to the duration of search for employment Opportunities to get an Employment for long term Unemployed are stable in the period

23. Huge differences in the persistence and transition probabilities between North and South Unemployment: persistence and transition probabilities by sex and NUTS1 region. 2007Q1 – 2008Q1 Higher probability to get an employment for men Higher probability to leave labour force for women