Presented by Tushaar Shah, Senior Fellow at IWMI, at the World Bank Group's Water Week held on April 4 - 7, 2016 in Washington, USA.

1. The World Bank Water Week
April 7, 2016
India’s Challenge of Groundwater Governance:
Bracing up for the Coming Solar Pump Juggernaut
Tushaar Shah
International Water Management Institute

2. At Independence, India inherited the world’s largest canal
infrastructure.. But since the 1960’s, it has emerged as the world’s
largest groundwater irrigator

3. Power subsidies are the key driver. In 2015, 20 million electric tubewells used
170 billion kWh of power to draw 210 BCM of groundwater
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
India: Number of Electric
Pumps: 1970-2015
No. of electric pumps in irrigation use (100)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
India: Electricity Use in
Groundwater Irrigation (m
kWh)
Tofal Electricity Use in Agriculture (m kWh)
2913.4
6435.7
6760.5
7545.5
6864.7
7651.47892.0
8725.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
India: average
KWH/pump/year
Power consumption/pump (kWh/year)
When political leaders
introduced farm power
subsidies during the 1970’s to
get farmers’ votes, they hardly
realised the consequences to
follow 20 years later…

4. India’s Perverse Energy-
Groundwater Nexus

5. GW demand management, when successful, has
invariably implicated power supply interventions
• Andhra Pradesh Community-led GWG
experiment
• Changing rice planting calendar in Punjab
• Remotely metered farm power and TOD-based
power pricing for farmers in West Bengal
• Temporary, winter-season 110-day power
connections in Madhya Pradesh
• Power rationing and MAR in Gujarat

6. Figure 1 a Electricity Network Before Figure 1 b Electricity Network after
Modi’s Gujarat: Demand side management through
Feeder separation and farm-power rationing

7. Modi’s Gujarat: Community-driven decentralized MAR in
hard-rock aquifers
Meghal basin drainage netwrork Profusion of check dams built by people,
with government support

8. Modi’s Gujarat is the only state in western India where
groundwater levels are improving.. And agriculture is booming

9. 0
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25000
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200000
400000
600000
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1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Gujarat
Number of electric tubewells
power consumption in agriculture (million kWh)
Average power use/tubewell (kWh/year)
0
1000
2000
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0
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
India
No. of electric pumps in irrigation use
(100)
Average kWh/pump has been rising in India
but falling in Gujarat

10. Comes along the solar
irrigation pump.. To
transform the
architecture of India’s
groundwater economy..

11. • PV cell costs falling faster than predicted: US
1500/kWp in 2012; US $ 800/kWp in 2016; US $
350-400/kWp by 2022?
• Solar irrigation pump numbers in India growing
faster than expected: <1000 during 1985-2012;
45,000 during 2012-2015; 4-5 million during 2016-
2022?
• Solar pump size in use increasing faster than
thought likely: 0.5-2 kWp until 2012; 5kWp
standard today; 8.5 kWp in use in Bihar
• Non-subsidy solar pump market already a reality
Democratization of energy…
grid-independence presents a
formidable groundwater
governance challenge.
With the rise of solar irrigation pumps, India is at a déjà vu moment..
Energy subsidies casually introduced 40 years ago created unsustainable
groundwater economy today.. Solar pumps mindlessly promoted today
will accelerate depletion like never before..

12. Solar insolation is
high where
groundwater
depletion is a crisis.
Potential for disruption by solar pump juggernaut
Grid power Solar power
~1200 kWh/kW/year ~1500-1800
kWh/kW/year
Half or more during
nights
All day time
Frequent interruptions,
voltage fluctuations
uninterrupted;
predictably variable
voltage
Subsidized marginal cost Zero marginal cost
0
500
1000
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2000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Dhundhi Solar COOP (54 kW): solar
energy generated and used for
irrigation (kWh)

13. How to brace up for the solar pump juggernaut
Current policy Desired Policy AuxiliaryPolicy
Solar Pump as green energy
Solar Power as a
Remunerative Crop (SPaRC)
capital cost subsidy of
90%+
Subsidy tied to micro-
irrigation and limited to 2-
3 kWp
Solar pumps owners use
solar and grid power for
pumping groundwater
Limit capital cost subsidy to US
$ 500/kWp, and keep reducing
Solar pumps grid connected,
net-metered with power
purchase guarantee at ~ US c
8-9/kWh
An incentive FiT of US c 11-
12/kWh to solar farmers who
surrender grid connection.
Solar farmer remains net
buyer of grid power
Solar coops become net
sellers of power to the grid
Solar farmers are dispersed
and costly to reach
Clusters of solar farmers form
a cooperative connected to the
grid at a single point.
Demarket Grid Power
Ban new grid power
connections for tubewells
Increase night power
supply
Give farmers right to
reclaim surrendered grid
connections up to 2
years
Promote solar
federations as IPPs
Subsidize investment in
micro-grids.

14. India’s ambitious solar target:
100 GW by 2022
To be achieved mostly through
MW scale greenfield projects in
remote sites.
But SPaRC offers a whole new
alternative path to this target.

15. Solarising 10 million 10 kW grid-connected solar irrigation pumps give
100 GW solar capacity targeted by 2022
150 billion
kWh/year of green
power generated
Solar farmer earns US $
1000/year net by selling
40% of solar power to
the grid
DISCOMs save US $
10 billion/year in
power subsidies
Groundwater use in
irrigation drops
from 240 BCM to
190-200 BCM/year
CO2 emissions from
groundwater
pumping drops by
110 mmt/year
Gains from
SPaRC
Taking tubewells off
the grid power
releases 30% of grid
capacity

16. 150 billion
kWh/year of green
power generated
Solar farmer earns US $
1000/year net by selling
40% of solar power to
the grid
DISCOMs save US $
10 billion/year in
power subsidies
Groundwater use in
irrigation drops
from 240 BCM to
190-200 BCM/year
CO2 emissions from
groundwater
pumping drops by
110 mmt/year
Gains from
SPaRC
Taking tubewells off
the grid power
releases 30% of grid
capacity
100 GW solar capacity through MW-scale solar projects gives
India only a green energy mix but little else.

17. IWMI’s Pilot Project on
Dhundhi Village Solar Power Producers’ Cooperative
Services offered:
1. Absorb transaction
costs of pooling
surplus power
2. Assist member farmers
in maximizing power
sales
3. Add solar capacity
over time

18. Thank You…
IWMI-Tata Water Policy Program
Five
Problems,
One
Solution..