A point of view predicting technology and world trends in 2015

1. World and Business Technology Outlook 2015
Chris Eaton
Version 1.0 March 2008

2. Arctic Resource War Baby Boomers
Browser based 3D environments
Digital downloads Generation Y
Generation X markets in Asia
Portals Social Computing
Social Networking Broker

3. People
Technology
Business
Economic
Environment
Resources
Political

4. People
The Baby Boomer generation prefer casual work, when they want. A
percentage migrate to warmer climates. Quality of life is arguably better
than their children.
Generation Y are advantaged by computer literacy and their experience
from birth, of computers. They expect multiple employers in their career
they have reduced company loyalty. They are ethically and
environmentally driven in selecting an employer. They require more
immediate recognition for their talents and expect quick placement and
advancement. Girls outperform boys academically. Entry to technology
degrees continues to reduce compared to other subjects.
Generation X are now parents and care more about the futures of their
children they are more focussed on Green issues and active in doing
something about them but will not compromise quality of life to be
Green. They seek stability in work.

5. People
IT is an unattractive career to North America and Western Europe
Generation Y. It is seen as volatile with global off-shoring seen as a likely
outcome to any IT job. The constant sea of change in technology means
constant re-skilling as demand for particular technologies ebbs and flows.
Asian aspirations grow in basic standards of living including car and home
ownership. This drives energy demands and increased pressure on the
environment. Attractiveness of emigrating to Western Europe and North
America reduces as quality of life increases at home.
Population increases pressures food production with possible availability
issues.

6. Technology – Social Computing
Social networking sites consolidate and social networking brokers emerge to
communicate between different social networking offerings and
businesses who are exploiting social networking. A clear leader in this
market will emerge with substantial market capitalisation.
Virtual worlds move from niche interest group to mainstream starting to
challenge the 2D internet. This is partly incremental but large scale
adoption is driven by a killer social networking application with multi
platform appeal, it is possible that this will be delivered as a browser
based 3D environment.

7. Technology – Social Computing
Social Computing data grows exponentially as businesses join together
business with social computing both for internal collaboration and
customer interaction. For instance when you buy an airline ticket this
updates your preferred social networking site through social networking
brokers. Assuming significant numbers of businesses follow this model
then high volumes of fast moving interactive data are generated. Those
individuals able to follow and leverage the information volumes are
advantaged, typically this will be Generation Y.
The Blu-Ray win over HD-DVD is short lived as disc media reduces in
importance compared to digital downloads. Network connectivity rises in
relative importance to other hardware components to deliver content on
demand.

8. Technology – Network/Gaming
Next generation consoles based on multi-multi core processors with higher
network integration. Lessons learned from mid 2000 console releases
stress usability, killer application, price point and higher focus on social
computing. Most content including games are digital downloads rather
than physical media. A console might be released with no method other
than loading content over a network. Consoles and Digital recorders have
a terabyte or more of disk space.
Complex games arrive in the web browser including 3d games such as
http://www.quakelive.com/ these games are platform agnostic with no
need for physical or even online distribution, however network bandwidth
is important. A platform independent killer social computing on a
browser based 3D environment may dominate the 3d virtual world scene
integrated other web and business social networking applications through
a social networking broker.

9. Technology – Enterprise IT Strategy
General enterprise architecture thinking begins to trend away from large
ERP installations. This is driven by increased need for business flexibility
and the high total cost of ownership, implementation complexity and cost
of ERP implementation.
Smaller lightweight situational applications joined together as greater
composite applications (portals and mashups) emerge as the
replacement. Multiple applications are joined together in single next
generation portals enabled by advancing integration technologies such as
Enterprise Service Buses.
A vision of CAD/CAM construction of software components gets closer.
Componentisation through web and REST services combined with
cataloguing and advances in configuration of middleware and portals
through visual tools instead of bespoke programming of middleware move
this forward substantially.

10. Technology - Enterprise IT Strategy
The next big ERP system arrives developed by an Asian software house
focusing on Asian markets, business processes and legislation. It is priced
for Asia consumers. This challenges Oracle and SAP in these emerging
markets.
The importance of Software as a Service (SaaS) increases. SaaS vendors
focused on application nimbleness and customer relations succeed. From
a technology point of view SaaS vendors with portals and system to
system integration capabilities above their competitors are preferred by
customers.
Continuing the theme of a generalised trend away from development
complexity, REST overtakes web services (WSDL/UDDI/SOAP) as the
architectural style of choice.

11. Technology - Hardware
Moores law continues to be met with multi core processors. With any thing up
to 32 or 64 processors on a single die. OS and software changes will be
needed to exploit this power, Open source software especially is best
placed to rise to this opportunity and in particular Linux.
64 bit processors become standard on the desktop overcoming 4GB memory
limit of 32 bit processors this is an important trend for software
companies.
Hard disk sizes continue to increase, and prices fall, digital recorders and
consoles have over 1TB of storage.

12. Technology - Hardware
Light Emitting Polymers (LEP) just begin to be released in a few products.
This is the most disruptive technology since the internet. By 2020 LEP
replaces all previous display formats. The physical flexibility of polymers
and cheap production (similar cost to printing on paper using a laser
printer) means LEP appears everywhere. It will be possible to have real-
time on the fly personalisation on any polymer surface including
clothing, cars, wallpaper, etc. There are Radical implications to
consumer to computer interaction. The need for LCD and traditional
displays disappears as computers display on any polymer surface available
in the immediate proximity including your wall or your t-shirt or even
someone else's t-shirt.

13. Business - Workforce
Successful businesses develop multiple work patterns to suit Generation Y, X
and Baby Boomers. Generation Y expect fast progression, higher value
jobs with wide range of skills and growth. Generation X seek stability and
are unsettled by the rapid pace of technology change. Baby Boomers seek
to work when they want rather than have permanent commitments, their
financial independence frees them from the burdens felt by Generation
X.
Business seek to change the models for delivering IT development to leverage
low cost global resources, and baby boomers. Work is packaged and
outsourced, possibly through reverse auctions, to individual or specialist
companies (topcoder.com). This challenges the need for in house
development resources in most companies. Methodologies are adapted to
package, sell, track and complete small packages of work.

14. Business - Workforce
Businesses sow the seed for future success by being an attractive employer
for women, especially in Generation Y who have academically exceeded
their male peers
Leaders in global organisations are expected to have multi country
experience, those reaching for the very top of the organisation must have
work experience in markets in Asia.

15. Business - Workforce
Critical IT skills shortage in Western Europe and North America are addressed
with ‘Landed Resources’. These human resources are employed in Europe
and North America by subsidiaries of global IT organisations for short
durations thus avoiding full employee liability against the parent company
but making them available for work. High achieving Landed Resources
are transferred to permanent employment in the parent company
providing the parent company with a high value, low risk, talent
incubator.

16. Business - Sales
Successful companies have a highly developed global brand and a reputation
for Innovation. Generating continuous anticipation for future products and
delivering against the expectation defines the market leaders (Apple, Id
Software).
Consumers expect Green products and low energy consumption in all
electronic products. Power consumption may become a more important
factor in purchases.

17. Business - Sales
Online purchases exceed store/high street spending in some countries.
Companies who do not invest in usability and regular improvements to
their web presence disadvantage themselves. The most successful
businesses adopt Social Computing into Sales, Marketing, Customer
Relationship Management and Internal Operations.
Global Businesses continue to focus on Eastern Europe and markets in Asia as
the most likely opportunity for double digit growth. Understanding
consumers locally becomes increasingly important. This poses a
dilemma for organisations based in North America and Western Europe
who have taken significant steps to consolidate global operations in their
home countries reducing local country presence.

18. Business - Innovation
Successful businesses strike a balance between freedom to innovate and
control (Lessig). In an IT context this will mean releasing control to
enable faster and cheaper transformations of internal processes and
modifications in business models and methods to maximise:
– global resources
– generational resources (X,Y, Baby Boomer)
– opportunities in social computing
– markets in Asia.
Social computing becomes a primary driver of innovation. The ability to
reach, discuss and develop solutions through a hugely diverse group will
lead to better products. Businesses which fail to implement product
development leveraging social computing fall behind.

19. Business - Legal
Global Business exerts pressure to reduce disparities in data privacy laws
across the globe. Global Integrated Enterprises require borderless flow of
information. Those companies which successfully overcome these
challenges are best placed to succeed.
Patent law helps large business protect their assets, but do little to help
smaller businesses who have neither the resources to register patents nor
the financial muscle to challenge infringements. Patent reforms are a
debating point but little change occurs.

20. Resources
Russia starts to mine the Lomonosov Ridge in the Artic to cope with pressure
on their Oil, Gas and Mineral reserves. This sparks international outrage
and a possible Arctic Resource War headed by the US. This puts Western
European countries and possibly India and China dependant on Russian oil,
gas and minerals in a very difficult dilemma; they either support Russia
which jeopardises relations with the US or support the US and lose access
to Russian energy reserves.
Countries move at differing paces to green energy sources but in total does
little to move the dependency on oil, gas and coal. Energy prices
dramatically increase. Commercial nuclear power becomes a viable
alternative including end of life clean-up. Public acceptable of nuclear
power increases.

21. Resources
Increase in total energy consumption worldwide. Oil discoveries begin to
fall short of those required to keep with demand. Traditional oil
production processes can no longer continue to meet demand; significant
price increases for oil and petrol.
Wealth increases in Asia drive higher car ownership pressurising oil supplies.
India and China dependence on Russian energy supplies increase. Supply
of Petrol and Diesel powered Cars in North America and Europe just begin
to emerge as a luxury.

22. Economic
The US Dollar continues to be locked in the doldrums. Earlier shifts of manufacturing
to markets in Asia means the US economy is predominantly services based which
has low export potential. The weakened Dollar becomes less attractive to Asian
manufacturers compared to local Asian currencies and the Euro driving cost
increases to the US. Weakened currency means outsourcing becomes less
financially attractive to US and Western European countries and indeed it is
possible US manufacturing will start to recover.
Market saturation in North American and European markets means organic growth is
limited across the board. Double digit growth in technology markets is only
achievable by acquisition.
Double digit organic growth opportunities exist only in Eastern Europe, especially
Russia, and tiger markets in Asia. This is threat to Generation X in IT jobs who
fear their worth as employees has considerably eroded.

23. Economic
Africa and China begins to emerge in low end services markets such as call
centres challenging Indian dominance. Companies begin to move business
support from India to Africa. Indian employees are made redundant as a
result which comes as a startling shock to the India technology industry as
technology employment and the Indian economy has been strong over the
last seven years.
India and China emerge as leaders in software development. The
unattractiveness of IT as a career to Generation Y in North America and
Western Europe begins to bite.

24. Environment
Extreme Weather continues across the world, news on flooding, hurricanes,
snow and other weather effects become more frequent. Coastal dwelling
becomes less desirable.
The world sits on the cusp of an Arctic Resource War leading to semi-
permanent human encampments on the Artic ice sheets pressuring local
wildlife through human presence, waste disposal and pollution.
Artic ice shelves and sea ice, continue to retreat. Glacial retreat continues
all over the world.

25. Political
Green continues as a high profile political issue. However, little is really done
by governments to address these issues. Green political parties are still
not palatable to the population at large since they compromise current
lifestyle such as car ownership and restricted energy consumption.
Securing energy resources rises in importance on the Political agenda. The
possible Arctic Resource War puts countries dependant on Russia Oil, Gas
and Mineral reserves in a difficult dilemma. Western European countries
and possibly India and China dependant on Russian oil, gas and minerals
are presented with a very difficult dilemma; they either support Russia
which jeopardises relations with the US or support the US and lose access
to Russian energy reserves.

26. Political - Security
Iran continues as an unpredictable political country, but they are not
attacked by the West unless they make an attack of some sort to another
country.
Terrorist activity continues to be a high political agenda item with highest
threats expected in the US and UK and other countries supporting the Iraq
and Afghanistan wars.
Online threats continue, revised development techniques and regular
patching prevent large scale issues like Code Red. Botnets are the largest
threat used for denial of service attacks against specific targets, or Spam
rather than to disrupt end users.

27. Appendix
Chris Eaton – tf_slarti@hotmail.com
http://2015technologyoutlook.blogspot.com/
Pictures http://earthsim www.earthsim.tv – please note the license
agreement for both applications does not allow for use of this software
for commercial use and presumably screen captures
Graphics editing via Gimp – www.gimp.org