Living in cold, damp homes can lead to poor health in children such as chest conditions and mental health problems in adolescents. With energy costs rising and wages not keeping pace with inflation, health issues for children and young people may worsen due to families' inability to afford home heating. An AI model was used to simulate how government advice and interventions could potentially reduce health care utilization and disparities between socioeconomic groups, though further validation is needed before implementing related policies.

1. Using AI to understand how preventative interventions can
improve the health of children in the UK and reduce winter
pressures on the NHS
Martin Chapman, Abigail G-Medhin, Kian Daneshi, et al.

2. Living in cold, damp, and mouldy homes
leads to poor health, such as chest
conditions in children and mental health
problems in adolescents.
The rising cost of energy, coupled with
wages not increasing in line with inflation,
is likely to further widen social inequalities
in child health.
With families unlikely to be able to afford
to heat their homes, health problems for
children and young people (CYP) may
worsen.

3. 1
Implement

4. 2
1
Model
Evaluate

5. What is our ‘digital mimic’?

6. Engagement
1
Coding
2 Data
3

7. Engagement
1
Coding
2 Data
3
Policy Analyst

8. Low SEC Middle SEC High SEC
White British Ethnic Minority
Asthma
Depression
1
Coding
2
Data

9. e.g. Low SEC
+ Asthma
1
Coding
2
Data

10. Interviews
3.1
Engagement
3
Focus groups
3.2
Questionnaires
3.3
Scope
Determine
behaviour
Evaluate

11. 3.2
Questionnaires

12. Household
payments
1
Advice
2
3
Vaccine
eligibility

13. 83,776 individuals analysed
30+ engagement activities
37 subgroups of interest
33,000 simulations run

14. SEC +
Asthma

15. +5% of income Eligibility +2 years
SEC +
Asthma

16. +5% of income Eligibility +2 years
Ethnicity +
Asthma

17. Overall health utilisation can
potentially be reduced by issuing
government advice.
Disparities between different SEC
groups can potentially be reduced
by issuing government advice.
Requires further validation before
implementation into policy.
1
2
SEC +
Asthma

18. Very early insight!
The long-term picture is
more complex.

19. github.com/digitalmimic/model github.com/digitalmimic/winter-analysis

21. What’s next?
• More data (e.g. additional health utilisation data)
• More PPIE (e.g. additional SEC insight)
• More validation (e.g. against existing intervention implementations)
• Work to be presented at a Cost of Living Crisis
conference in June

22. Using AI to understand how preventative interventions can
improve the health of children in the UK and reduce winter
pressures on the NHS
Martin Chapman, Abigail G-Medhin, Kian Daneshi, et al.