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Using AI to understand how preventative interventions can
improve the health of children in the UK and reduce winter
pressures on the NHS
Martin Chapman, Abigail G-Medhin, Kian Daneshi, et al.
Living in cold, damp, and mouldy homes
leads to poor health, such as chest
conditions in children and mental health
problems in adolescents.
The rising cost of energy, coupled with
wages not increasing in line with inflation,
is likely to further widen social inequalities
in child health.
With families unlikely to be able to afford
to heat their homes, health problems for
children and young people (CYP) may
worsen.
1
Implement
2
1
Model
Evaluate
What is our ‘digital mimic’?
Engagement
1
Coding
2 Data
3
Engagement
1
Coding
2 Data
3
Policy Analyst
Low SEC Middle SEC High SEC
White British Ethnic Minority
Asthma
Depression
1
Coding
2
Data
e.g. Low SEC
+ Asthma
1
Coding
2
Data
Interviews
3.1
Engagement
3
Focus groups
3.2
Questionnaires
3.3
Scope
Determine
behaviour
Evaluate
3.2
Questionnaires
Household
payments
1
Advice
2
3
Vaccine
eligibility
83,776 individuals analysed
30+ engagement activities
37 subgroups of interest
33,000 simulations run
SEC +
Asthma
+5% of income Eligibility +2 years
SEC +
Asthma
+5% of income Eligibility +2 years
Ethnicity +
Asthma
Overall health utilisation can
potentially be reduced by issuing
government advice.
Disparities between different SEC
groups can potentially be reduced
by issuing government advice.
Requires further validation before
implementation into policy.
1
2
SEC +
Asthma
Very early insight!
The long-term picture is
more complex.
github.com/digitalmimic/model github.com/digitalmimic/winter-analysis
What’s next?
• More data (e.g. additional health utilisation data)
• More PPIE (e.g. additional SEC insight)
• More validation (e.g. against existing intervention implementations)
• Work to be presented at a Cost of Living Crisis
conference in June
Using AI to understand how preventative interventions can
improve the health of children in the UK and reduce winter
pressures on the NHS
Martin Chapman, Abigail G-Medhin, Kian Daneshi, et al.

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AI to Improve Child Health and Reduce NHS Winter Pressures