McLuhan's Media Theory Explains Print and Digital Meltdowns

Bob Rosenbaum!
Media Management/2012!

Why it happened  What it means
And what’s next

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum

www.themarke6arm.com

Marshall
McLuhan

1911-‐1980
/
Philosopher
&
CommunicaDons
Theorist

•  Understanding
the
Media;
1964

–  The
medium
is
the
message

–  Explains
why
stories
are
diﬀerent
on
air,
in
print
and
online

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


Marshall
McLuhan

1911-‐1980
/
Philosopher
&
CommunicaDons
Theorist

•  Understanding
the
Media;
1964

–  The
medium
is
the
message

–  Explains
why
stories
are
different
on
air,
in
print
and

online

–  Hot
v.
Cool
media

•  Hot:
demands
acDve
parDcipaDon

–  Newspapers,
magazines

•  Cool:
Allows
passive
parDcipaDon

–  TV,
radio

•  Explains
why
meltdown
has
affected
print
differently
than

broadcast

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


McLuhan’s
Tetrad

Examines impact of new technology
on society by asking:

• What does the medium enhance?
• What does the medium make
obsolete?
• What does the medium retrieve that
had been obsolesced earlier?
• What does the medium flip into when
pushed to extremes?

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


DOCUMENTING
THE
MELTDOWN

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


Newspaper
meltdown

U.S.
newspaper
revenue
(millions)

$60,000

$50,000

$40,000

Online

$30,000

Classiﬁed

$20,000

Print

Total

$10,000

$0

Source:
Newspaper
AssociaDon
of
America

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


Newspaper
meltdown

U.S.
newspaper
revenue
(millions)

Source:
Newspaper
AssociaDon
of
America

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


Magazine
meltdown

Average
adverDsing
pages/magazine

1200

1000
2004

2005

800

2006

2007

600

2008

2009

400

2010

200
2011

0

Source:
Publishers
InformaDon
Bureau

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


Magazine
meltdown

Average
adverDsing
pages/magazine

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


B2B
meltdown

2009
Trade
Media
Revenue

15

10

5

0

-‐5
Revenue
(billions)

-‐10
%
change

-‐15

-‐20

-‐25

-‐30

Source:
Publishers
InformaDon
Bureau

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


WHY
IT
HAPPENED

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


Internet
=
DisrupDon

Key
events
in
prelude
to
the
meltdown

•  1989:
America
Online
founded

•  1993:
Excite
becomes
ﬁrst
“modern”
search

engine

•  1995:
eBay
founded
(as
AucDonWeb)

•  1996:
Craig’s
List
goes
online

•  1999:
‘Blog’
is
coined

•  2000:
Google
launches
AdWords

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


AOL:
So
What?

•  Was
it
the
ﬁrst
online
news
source?

•  Sped
up
news
cycle

•  Allowed
tracking
of
reader
interest

•  Ushered
in
era
of
user-‐driven
content

Nutshell:
Readers
want
it
faster
and

customized

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


Excite:
So
What?

•  Deﬁned
how
the
Internet
would
be
used

–  Search
=
Research

–  Search
=
ExploraDon

–  Search
=
DisintermediaDon

–  Search
=
Immediacy

–  Search
=
Portability

Nutshell:
Users
declare
independence
from

tradiDonal
informaDon
ﬁlters

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


Excite:
So
What?

•  Old
media
consumpDon
is
reacDve

whereas

•  Online
media
consumpDon
is
proacDve

•  Internet
becomes
“honest”
medium
since

storytelling

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


eBay/Craig’s
List:
So
What?

•  Did
to
the
“marketplace”
funcDon
of
media

what
search
engines
did
to
the
“informaDon”

funcDon

–  Shortened
vending
cycle

–  Reduced
cost

–  Removed
geographic
limitaDons

–  Increased
personalizaDon

Nutshell:
Buyers
and
sellers
alike
share
the
largest

marketplace
ever
assembled

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


Blogs:
So
What?

•  Everybody
is
a
news
outlet

•  Barrier
to
entry
is
the
lowest
it’s
ever
been

•  Variety
of
oﬀerings
is
the
widest
it’s
ever
been

•  New
corporate
media
emerge

–  Huﬀpost,
Daily
Beast,
Slate

Nutshell:
Media
must
struggle
harder
than
ever

to
maintain/engage
audience

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


AdWords:
So
What?

•  Allows
adverDsers
to
pay
for
higher
search

engine
exposure

•  MarkeDng
becomes
directly
measurable

•  Reduces
cost
of
markeDng

–  Metric
changes
from
CPI
to
CPC

•  Arrives
during
a
recession

Nutshell:
Instant
examinaDon
of
tradiDonal

adverDsing

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


McLuhan’s
Tetrad
Revisited

Examines impact of new technology
on society by asking:

• What does the medium enhance?
• What does the medium make
obsolete?
• What does the medium retrieve that
had been obsolesced earlier?
pushed to extremes?

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


McLuhan’s
Tetrad
Revisited

How Internet media technologies have
impacted society:

•  Enhance: Speed, proactivity,
customizability, freedom
• Obsolete: Daily news cycle,
browsing, print advertising,
printed marketplaces
• Retrieve: Participation
pushed to extremes? _________

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


McLuhan’s
Tetrad
Revisited

How Internet media technologies have
impacted society:

•  What does the medium flip into
when pushed to extremes?

Facebook and other social media:
Logical conclusion of media that is
fast, user driven (proactivity and
customizability) and allows
unprecedented participation and
freedom
©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


RevoluDon
in
markeDng

MarkeDng
before
the
Internet:

•  We
talk/you
listen!

MarkeDng
with
the
Internet:

•  Can
we
get
permission
to
engage
you?

–  E-‐mail
lists

–  Blogs

–  Social
media

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


RevoluDon
in
markeDng

If
we
can
ﬁnd
you…

And
get
permission
to
engage
you
…

Then
why
do
we
need
the
media
at
all?

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


RevoluDon
in
markeDng

If
we
can
ﬁnd
you…

And
get
permission
to
engage
you
…

Then
why
do
we
need
the
media
at
all?

•  The
marketer
now
aggregates
its
own
audience

and
produces
its
own
content
with
parDcipaDon

from
the
outside;
the
marketer
IS
a
publisher

–  Permission
markeDng

–  Custom
publishing

–  Content
markeDng

–  Social
media
markeDng

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


Internet
2.0
=
DisrupDon
2.0

•  2003:
LinkedIn
founded
/
proﬁtable
in
2006

•  2004:
Facebook
launched

•  2006:
Twiner
launched

•  2009:
Quora
launched

–  2012:
Quora
declared
a
mortal
threat
to
Wikipedia

in
San
Francisco
Chronicle

The
marketer
as
publisher
fully
realized

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


Decline
of
journalism

•  U.S.
newspapers
reduce
investment
in

journalism
by
$1.6
billion/year
(Rick
Edmonds,

Poynter
InsDtute)

Newspaper
newsroom
employment

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000
Source: Poynter, ASNE, Newspaperlayoffs.com

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


New
business
models

•  TradiDonal
media
–
moneDzed
audience

–  Generate
content

–  Amass
an
audience

–  Lease
access
to
the
audience

•  New
models
–
moneDzed
content

–  Generate
content

–  Sell
content

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


Examples
of
new
business
models

•  Digital-‐only
startups

–  Rupert
Murdoch
“ The
Daily”

–  Fear.less

•  Group
sourcing

–  Wikileaks

–  Nowpublic.com

•  Hyperlocal
publishing

–  JournaDc

–  Heights
Observer

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


New
business
models

•  Content
aggregaDon

–  Associated
Content

•  Audience
management

–  Press+
media
paywall

•  Content
outsourcing

–  MedCity
News

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


What’s
next

•  DisrupDon
as
a
way
of
life

•  Print
survives,
along
with
everything
else

(TV
didn’t
kill
radio,
cable
didn’t
kill
TV)

–  Fewer
print
publicaDons
per
category

•  Consolidators
absorb
innovators

•  Digital
reading
devices
become
ubiquitous

•  InformaDon
providers
will
adopt
pracDces
that

make
these
devices
preferable

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


THE
MEDIUM

IS
[STILL]
THE
MESSAGE

• There
just
happen
to
be
more
media
than

ever
before.

• No
media
ever
go
away
completely

• “Obsolete”
media
just
adapt
and
develop

their
own
niche
markets

©2012
Bob
Rosenbaum


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