This document discusses the Kyoto Protocol and its adoption and implementation by the European Union. It provides background on the Kyoto Protocol, including its goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It describes the EU's adoption of emissions reduction targets and establishment of emissions trading and clean development mechanisms. It also reviews a 2006 progress report showing most EU members met their Kyoto targets and the impacts on the EU economy have been limited so far.

1. IB 565 Culture and Doing Business in The European Union Albert H. Callewaert Keith R. Dickson August 22, 2008

2. Introduction Global Warming Awareness Exam Kyoto Protocol History EU’s Adoption Of The Kyoto Protocol Progress Report 2006 Kyoto Protocol Implementation Observations Of The Kyoto Protocol’s Impact On The EU’s Economy Asia Pacific Partnership Plan

3. INTRODUCTION

4. International Agreement created to address the Alleged “Global Warming” issue Sets binding targets for signatory countries and the European Union for reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) Reduce CO2 Emissions on Average 6% below Signatory States’1990 levels Source: www.wikipedia.com

5. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration An overall increase in world temperatures which may be caused by additional heat being trapped by greenhouse gases United States Geological Service An increase of the earth's temperature by a few degrees resulting in an increase in the volume of water which contributes to sea level rise The Encyclopedia of Earth The combined result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and changes in solar irradiance. New South Wales Department of Primary Industries The expected consequence of an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases by human activity. Source: http://www.google.com/search

6. Source: www.logicalscience.com/climate_change/climate

7. “ There are lies……. There are damn lies…… And then there are statistics” Source: http://www.cmgww.com/historic/twain/about/photos.htm

8. cum hoc ergo propter hoc (“with this, therefore because of this” ) Example A occurs in correlation with B Therefore, A causes B a logical fallacy “ Correlation does not imply Causation” Four Other Possibilities B may be the cause of A Some unknown third factor causes the relationship between A and B The relationship is so complex, that it can be labeled “coincidental” B may be the cause of A at the same time that A is the cause of B (Contradiction) Conclusion No conclusion can be made regarding the existence or the direction of a cause and effect relationship without further investigation Source: www.wikipedia.com

9. Anthropogenic: Resulting from Human Activities Global Temperatures Source: http://politicalhumor.about.com

10. Arctic Polar Ice Cap Melting Endangered Polar Bears Source: Sumiko Ishikawa

11. www.globalwarmingheartland.org/

12. Question 1: “ Global Warming” is a real phenomenon. Earth’s temperature is increasing True False 118,000 yrs ago much of North America, Europe, and Asia was covered with ice 18,000 yrs ago warming of the Earth began 15,000 yrs ago advance of glaciers ceased, sea levels rose 8,000 yrs ago Bearing Strait land bridge under water Since the end of Ice Age Earth’s average temperature has risen 16 degrees F and sea levels has risen 300 feet 118 kya 18 kya 2008 8 kya

13. Question 2: The “Greenhouse Effect” is real. True False Direct Sunlight Radiant Energy Greenhouse Effect

14. Question 3: The main cause of Global Warming is: Pollution from factories and automobiles Orbital eccentricities of the Earth and variations in the Sun’s output. The Greenhouse Effect Major Causes of Global Temperature Shifts Astronomical Causes Solar Variability (Sunspots): 11 year and 206 year cycles. Precession of the Equinoxes: 23,000 year cycle. Variation of Tilt of Earth’s Axis: 41,000 year cycle Eccentricity of Earth’s Elliptical Orbit: 100,000 year cycle

15. Sunspots and Solar Flares Variation in Tilt of Earth’s Axis Eccentricity of Earth’s Elliptical Orbit Precession of the Equinoxes

16. Question 4: The Greenhouse Effect is caused primarily by: Water Vapor & Cloud Droplets Carbon Dioxide Ozone-Destroying aerosol sprays 66% to 85% of the Greenhouse Effect is the result of Water Vapor & Cloud Droplets Greenhouse Effect is limited primarily to increasing nighttime temperatures The World’s natural wetlands produce more Greenhouse Gas Contributions annually than all human sources combined ` www.windows.ucar.edu Major Greenhouse Gas % of Greenhouse Effect Water vapor 36% to 66% Water vapor & Cloud droplets 66% to 85% Carbon dioxide 9% to 26% Methane 4% to 9% Ozone 3% to 7%

17. Question 5: Which most accurately describes the effects of Global Warming in the United States over the past 100 years? a) Temperature rise of > 5 degrees C b) Temperature rise of >2 degrees C c) Temperature rise of <1 degrees C Two cycles: 1900 – 1940: warming 1940 – 1980: cooling 1980 – present: warming

18. Question 6: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere today are at record high levels. a) True c) False CO2 is a small component of the Earth’s atmosphere currently at 380 parts per million (0.038%) Compared to former geological times, the Earth is CO2 impoverished

19. Late Carboniferous to Early Permian Periods Both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today known as the Quaternary Period

20. Question 7: Carbon Dioxide from coal-fired power plants damages forests. True False CO2 principal gas required for trees and plants to survive Primitive forests debuted 375 million years ago Beginning of Carboniferous Period (CO2 concentrations ~ 2500 ppm) As CO2 concentrations declined to 350 ppm so did plant growth Photosynthesis OXYGEN (O2) CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2)

21. Question 8: Which answer below provides the best explanation for the following temperature record? a) Industrial pollution from factories, power plants, & cars caused global warming b) Natural variations in global temperatures may occur in roughly 500 year cycles c) Global cooling occurred as a result of the Renaissance Period Primary Cause of Variations in Global Temperatures: Cycles of the sun Earth’s orbit about the sun

22. Question 9: Which of the following is Not True about an increasing greenhouse effect? a) The consensus of scientists is that the problem warrants drastic action. b) Night temperatures may increase, but daytime temperatures will not. c) The coldest, driest regions of the planet will warm first. 1989 “The Union of Concerned Scientists” circulated a petition Urged recognition of global warming as potentially a great danger to mankind. Signed by 700 scientists Four of the signers had involvement in climatology. (Richard S. Lindzen, MIT) President Clinton and Al Gore cite a letter Signed by 2600 scientists Global warming will have catastrophic effects on humanity Less than 10% involved with climatology (Citizens of a Sound Economy)

23. Question 10: Which temperature measuring method most accurately measures global warming? a) Ground based thermometers. b) Orbiting weather satellites. c) Weather balloons. Global Warming effects result from temperature increases in the Middle Troposphere (10 kilometers altitude) Mid Troposhere should warm faster than the Earth’s surface During the past 100 years Earth’s surface temperatures increased by 0.6 degrees C During the Period 2002 – 2007: Mid Troposhere temperature has decreased slightly Earth’s surface temperatures have stopped warming CO2 concentrations have increased www.visitandlearn.co.uk

24. 10 Correct: Excellent, You know your facts 9 Correct: Good, You are an independent thinker 8 Correct: Fair, You are on your way. 7 or Less Correct: Check out globalwarmingheartland.org to learn the facts about Global Warming Global Warming is occurring, but IT IS NOT A CRISIS Exam Source: www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/GlobWarmTest/start.html

25. Kyoto Protocol History

26. The US Supreme Court has ruled that carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is a pollutant and that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has the right to regulate CO 2 emissions from new cars. Source: http://www.dieselnet.com CO2 Al Gore’s Carbon Footprint Estate in Belle Meade area of Nashville, Tennessee 20 rooms 8 bathrooms Average American Household Annual Electricity Consumption: 10,656 kWh Al Gore Belle Meade Estate Annual Electricity Consumption (2006): 221,000 kWh Source: Business Week: Bruce Nussbaum. February 26, 2007

27. United States Kazakhstan Source: www.ciaworldfactbook.com Source: www.wikipedia.com

28. Scientific Body established 1988 to evaluate the RISK of CLIMATE CHANGE Created the United Nations Issued first assessment report in 1990 400 scientists Increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 Advised “Global Warming” is real & something should be done about it! Led to creation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Current Role Does not conduct its own scientific inquiries Reviews worldwide research Compiles special reports and technical papers 2007 shared Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol

29. International Environmental Treaty Produced at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) Rio de Janeiro June 3 – 14, 1992 Objective Achieve stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a low enough level to prevent anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Legal Authority Legally non binding Establishment of Mandatory Greenhouse Gases Limits None Entered Into Force March 21, 1994 Provision For Future Updates (Protocols) Establish mandatory emissions limits Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol

30. Protocol to UNFCCC Adopted December 11, 1997 Establishes binding targets for GHG emissions for Industrialized Countries plus the EU Entered Into Force February 16, 2005 Emissions Targets Compliance On Average – Reduction of 5% Below 1990 Baseline During Phase 2 (2008 – 2012 ) Country Governments Devolve Reductions to Individual Industries Primarily via National Means Flexibility Mechanisms Emissions Trading (ETS) – Market Based Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) – Project Based Joint Implementation Projects (JI) – Project Based Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol

31. European Union Adoption Of The Kyoto Protocol

32. Annex I Developed Countries Australia, Austria , Belarus, Belgium , Bulgaria , Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic , Denmark , Estonia , Finland , France , Germany , Greece , Hungary , Iceland, Ireland , Italy , Japan, Latvia , Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg , Malta , Monaco, Netherlands , New Zealand, Norway , Poland , Portugal , Romania , Russian Federation, Slovakia , Slovenia , Spain , Sweden , Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America Annex II Developed Countries that pay costs to Developing Countries for Emission Reduction Projects Australia, Austria , Belgium , Canada, Denmark , Finland , France , Germany , Greece , Iceland , Ireland , Italy , Japan, Luxembourg , Netherlands , New Zealand, Norway , Portugal , Spain , Sweden , Switzerland, United Kingdom , United States of America Developing Countries No emissions obligation other than monitoring and reporting (Brazil, China, India) Cannot sell emission credits to Developed Countries Receive funding and technologies from Annex II countries, promote rapid growth Can volunteer to become Annex I countries when sufficiently developed EU Member States Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol

33. European Union Climate Change Programme Assemble experts from member states to develop EU Policies and advise the European Council Assist in implementation of the Kyoto Protocol across the EU Kyoto Protocol Emission Reduction Targets: 8% below 1990 Levels EU 15 states by 2012 Source: ec. eu ropa. eu /environment/climat/eccp.htm

34. Market Based Mechanism Applies to Countries with Targets for Emissions Limitations & Reductions Objective Short Term: Encourage heavy emitting industries to reduce emissions from current technologies Long Term: Encourage investment in lower to zero emissions technologies Targets expressed as Levels of Allowed Emissions Divided into Assigned Amounts Units (AAU = 1 Tonne CO2) Countries with excess capacity can sell this capacity to countries that will exceed their limits Carbon Market: CO2 bought and sold just like any other commodity Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol

35. Largest Multi-Country Multi-Sector Emissions Trading Scheme Covers more than 12,000 installations collectively responsible for 50% CO2 emissions Entered into force October 25, 2003 Trading Periods First: October 25, 2005 through December 31, 2007 Second: January 1, 2008 through December 31, 2012 Third: January 1, 2013 through December 31, 2020 Source: PEW Center On Global Climate Change

36. Source: http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/spotlights/europe-carbon.html Source: www.co2prices.com

37. Project Based Mechanism Applies to Annex I Countries Emission Reduction and Limitation Commitments Initiate An Emission Reduction Project In Developing Countries eg. Rural Electrification Project Using Solar Panels High Energy Efficient Boilers Earns Saleable Certified Emission Reduction Credits (CER) (1) CER = (1) Tonne of CO2 Overseen by the CDM Executive Board Answerable to the Countries that Ratified the Kyoto Protocol Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol

38. Market Based Mechanism Applies to Annex I Countries Emission Reduction Commitment Emission Limitation Commitment Initiate An Emission Reduction or Emission Removal Project In Another Annex I Country Must provide reduction in emissions removal by sources Or must provide an enhancement of removals by sinks Earns Saleable Emission Reduction Units (ERU) (1) ERU = (1) Tonne of CO2 Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol

39. India - 459 projects - 278 Mt CO2 Brazil - 190 projects - 148 Mt CO2 China - 177 projects - 519 Mt CO2 Mexico - 132 projects - 57 Mt CO2 Other countries – 316 projects More than half of all CDM projects (52%) relate to renewable energy (geothermal, tidal, wind, hydro, biomass or solar) 15 fluorinated greenhouse gas projects (8 in China, 4 in India, 1 in Mexico) account for almost one-third of expected emissions reductions Expected market for JI and CDM in the EU ETS of up to 1.3 billion tonnes during 2008-12 Source: Jos Delbeke Carbon Expo Cologne, 3 May 2007

40. Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol

41. European Commission Proposal (January 23, 2008) Develop EU Wide Polices Objective: Implement the Energy and Climate decisions made by the European Council (March 2007) across all EU-27 member states Commitment - Reduce GHG emissions 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 Agreement – Reduce GHG emissions 30% below 1990 levels by 2020 Providing other Developed Countries make similar agreements Providing Economically Advanced Developing Countries contribute according to ability Mandatory Target - Renewable Energy 20% of the EU’s Energy Mix including a minimum 10% Biofuels by 2020 Review by European Parliament and European Council (Goal: Final Adoption by 2009) Source: PEW Center On Global Climate Change

42. Expansion of EU ETS New EU-Wide Rules to Harmonize Allocation of Emission Allowances across Member States Emission Reduction Targets at the Member State Level for Sectors not Covered by the EU ETS: (Buildings, Transport, and Waste) Legally Enforceable Renewable Energy Targets for Member States New Rules on Carbon Capture and Storage and Environmental Subsidies Source: PEW Center On Global Climate Change

43. Current (Phases 1 & 2) Allocated by Individual Member States as Specified in Their National Allocation Plans (NAP) Certain Facilities Within a Given Sector Faced Significantly Different Allocations Across Member States Proposed (Phase 3) Allocations Determined at EU Commission Level Allocation Prices - Auctions Free Allocations Based on Harmonization Across Member States Source: PEW Center On Global Climate Change

44. Current (Phases 1 & 2) No Regulations Proposed (Phase 3) Geologically Stored CO2 Emissions – No Allowances Need To Be Surrendered CCS CO2 Will Not Receive Free Allocations Legislative Framework To Be Developed To Provide Certainty To Industry And Remove barriers to Deployment Source: newsimg.bbc.co.uk Source: PEW Center On Global Climate Change

45. Progress Report 2006 Kyoto Protocol EU Implementation

46. Source: Dr. Margo Thorning, Managing Director ICCF at the US House of Representatives July 11, 2007

47. European Union Member States Greenhouse Gas Emissions In CO 2 Compared To Kyoto Protocol Targets Source: European Commission, based on European Environment Agency information

48. Source: Dr. Margo Thorning, Managing Director ICCF at the US House of Representatives July 11, 2007

49. OBSERVATIONS OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL’S IMPACT ON THE EUROPEAN UNION’S ECONOMY

50. “ We only understand 10 percent of the climate issue. That is not enough to wreck the world economy with Kyoto-like measures” Taken from: “Issues in The Current State of Climate Science” (March, 2006), The Center for Science and Public policy. Washington, DC --Henk Tennekes, former research director, Dutch Royal Meteorological Institute Source: www.heartland.org

51. “ We understand public anxiety about climate change, but are concerned that many of these much publicized predictions are ill informed and misleading. Taken from: “Issues in The Current State of Climate Science” (March, 2006), The Center for Science and Public policy. Washington, DC Paul Reiter: Professor of Medical Entomology at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, France Member of the World Health Organization Expert Advisory Committee on Vector Biology and Control Former employee of the Center for Disease Control (Dengue Branch) for 22 years Specialist in mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever Former member of IPCC Source: www.heartland.org

52. September 2001 Tony Blair: Pledged UK support for Kyoto Protocol, warning that action was essential to avoid “catastrophic consequences&quot; June 2007 Tony Blair: Promised to work for a new international framework agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol at expiration in 2012 The new agreement has to include China, India and the United States &quot;We need a technological revolution comparable to the internet” (In line with US Bush Administration Position) The UK Industry Lobby CBI: “Industry cannot keep shouldering the burden. Of all reductions in emissions achieved in the UK since 1990, business has been responsible for delivering 80 per cent of them&quot; Source: www.number 10 .gov.uk Source: http://www.cbi.org.uk

53. Open Europe - London based eurosceptic think-tank set up by the UK business community to 'campaign for reform‘ in the European Union, Not Withdrawl Max Andersson (August 2007) Green Party Member of the Swedish Parliament Foreward to Open Europe Report: “Europe’s Dirty Little Secret: Why The EU Emissions Trading Scheme Isn’t Working “ The ETS has been an embarrassing failure in the first phase of operation” “ 6% more permits to pollute have been printed than there is pollution” “ The price of carbon has collapsed to almost “Zero”, creating no incentive to reduce pollution” “ Emissions from installations covered by the ETS actually rose by 0.8% during Phase 1” Source: www.openeurope.org.uk

54. Leader of Italian Liberal Reformers Member Italian Parliament Former Member European Parliament October 2007 “ Global warming is not an emergency. Climate change is normal” “ The European Union chose the “struggle” against global warming as a way to characterize itself on the international arena” “ According to International Council for Capital Formation (ICCF), Kyoto would negatively impact future EU GDP and employment” “ We agree with Open Europe that things have gone backwards for the ETS” “ In the second phase of the ETS member states will be able to “import” external Kyoto “credits” from developing countries in order to meet their targets, which are highly flawed, and often fraudulent” Source: www.globalwarming.org

55. “ The ETS won’t reduce emissions in Europe, and won’t encourage companies to invest in innovative technologies” “ By purchasing carbon credits, the price of energy will increase. Tax-payers and consumers would pay the costs, and the Italian GDP will decrease. “ In its first phase of operation, more permits to pollute were printed than actual pollution. The price of carbon has collapsed from 33€ to 0.20€ per tonne, creating no incentive to reduce emissions” “ Some countries (such as the UK) set tough quotas on emissions, and others set lax targets, creating a wealth transfer mechanism, subsidizing emitters in states which were making little effort by taxing states with more stringent allocations” “ The ETS has established a web of politically powerful interest groups, massive economic distortions and hidden industrial subsidies” Source: www.globalwarming.org

56. “ According to the IPCC, to have an impact on global warming, anthropogenic emissions should be cut by 60-80% compared to 1990 level. If all the countries joining Kyoto reach their target, global emissions will decrease by less than 3%” “ President Bush is to begin setting a new worldwide goal for cutting CO2 emissions after 2012 and to help developing nations pay for the changes that would be needed.” “ Weaknesses in Mandatory Emission - Reduction Obligations – are apparent. Development of new technologies and other voluntary measures are the preferred means. Western countries should not participate in any talks toward a global agreement that do not include polluters from China, India, Brazil and the developing world” Source: www.globalwarming.org

57. European Think Tank Brussels, Belgium Focus on Public Policies To Promote Saving and Investment in the Private Sector November 2005 Report on “The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol” United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Spain Overview Cost of Emissions Allowances: passed on to consumers in higher energy prices and higher prices for goods and services Electricity and Gas Prices 2010: Kyoto Target 2020: 60% below 2000 levels by 2050 Source: www.iccfglobal.org

58. 2. Output and Employment Losses 3. Consumption and Residential Fixed Investment (GDP) due to loss of disposable income 4. The economy’s production rate will decline due to reduction in energy use 5. Labor Productivity decline due to less efficient factors of production Source: www.iccfglobal.org

59. Impact on Energy Consumption Domestic Sector Consumers will cut energy consumption due to drastically higher prices Short term: Reduce energy consumption Long term: Replace inefficient appliances with more efficient appliances Industry Sector Reduce energy consumption through process changes Replace energy-consuming capital with more efficient capital Production of energy intensive goods would move to non-participating countries Source: www.iccfglobal.org

60. Impact on Energy Consumption Power Sector The cost of carbon permits would lead to large increases in the delivered price of electricity Coal use would decline as with higher prices, encouraging the substitution of natural gas and renewables Natural gas fired power generation would struggle to keep electricity prices down Transportation Sector Demand for coal would be hardest hit with its highest carbon content Demand for petroleum would decline slightly due to limited substitution options Natural gas would increase but in time decline as CO2 limitations targets tighten Demand for renewables would increase Source: www.iccfglobal.org

61. International Non-Treaty Agreement Participants: Australia, Canada, India, Japan, the People's Republic of China, South Korea, and the United States Announced July 28, 2005 at an Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum Meeting Launched January 12, 2006 Member countries account for more than 50% of the world’s GHG emissions Energy consumption GDP Population Member counties’ set individual goals for GHG emission reductions No mandatory enforcement mechanism Source: www.wikipedia.com Australia China India Japan Republic of Korea USA (2007) Canada

62. Mission Statement Accelerate the development and deployment of clean energy technologies Voluntarily participate to advance clean development and climate objectives Enhance cooperation to meet both increased energy needs, air pollution, energy security, and greenhouse gas intensities Complement but not replace the Kyoto Protocol Task Forces Aluminum Buildings and Appliances Cement Cleaner Fossil Energy Coal Mining Power Generation and Transmission Renewable Energy and Distributed Generation Steel Source: sdp.gov

63. Criticism US President George W. Bush: “a new results-oriented partnership …..allows our nations to develop and accelerate deployment of cleaner, more efficient energy technologies to meet national pollution reduction, energy security and climate change concerns in ways that reduce poverty and promote economic development.“ Australian Prime Minister John Howard: “this pact is fair and effective” Worldwide Fund for Nature : &quot;a deal on climate change that doesn't limit pollution is the same as a peace plan that allows guns to be fired“ Coalition Of National Environment Groups (AP6 countries): Challenged their governments to make the AP6 meaningful by agreeing to mandatory targets, creating financial mechanisms with incentives, and to create an action plan to overcome the key barriers to technology transfer. U.S. Senator John McCain: “the partnership amounted to nothing more than a nice little public relations ploy“ The Economist: “the partnership is a &quot;patent fig-leaf for the refusal of America and Australia to ratify Kyoto&quot; Source: www.wikipedia.com

64. Thank You For Your Indulgence Audience Questions