This document discusses using neural networks to perform pattern recognition on banks' balance sheets. It proposes representing each balance sheet as a 27x1 pixel image and training a neural network to identify which bank each balance sheet belongs to. This could help detect important changes in banks' financial accounts over time and classify banks by risk level. The document reviews related literature on using neural networks for financial data analysis and pattern recognition. It argues that working with raw balance sheet data, rather than selected financial ratios, may provide more useful information for classification. The goal is to determine if neural networks can accurately recognize the owners of balance sheets presented as images.
Machine learning algorithms can be used in various areas of banking and central banking. Specifically, this document discusses:
1) Using machine learning for traditional credit risk modeling to forecast probability of default and assess financial stability.
2) Applying machine learning to time series forecasting of macroeconomic variables like inflation for monetary policy purposes.
3) Performing text mining on central bank research documents and news articles to measure economic uncertainty and risk in financial markets.
Machine learning algorithms can be used in various areas of banking and central banking. Specifically:
1) Traditional credit risk modeling can be enhanced with machine learning to predict probability of credit defaults based on borrower and macroeconomic variables.
2) Central banks can use credit bureau data and machine learning to monitor credit quality in real-time and provide recommendations to commercial banks.
3) Machine learning methods like random forests and neural networks outperform traditional models in time series forecasting of macroeconomic variables like inflation.
4) Unstructured text and narrative data from news, market commentary, and reports can be analyzed with machine learning to measure economic sentiment, risk, uncertainty and consensus.
اثر نظم المعلومات الحديثة على عملية صناعة قرارات الادارة الماليةMoumni Nabil
This document discusses the impact of modern information systems on the financial decision making process. It begins by defining key terms like modern information systems, financial management, and the decision making process. It then outlines the study's objectives and methodology, which involved distributing questionnaires to managers at seven banks in Jordan.
The results found several problems with how modern information systems are currently applied, especially regarding realizing their benefits for financial decision support. Banks were also not fully leveraging experience systems and decision support tools. The study concluded with recommendations for improving how information systems are used to enhance financial management decisions.
Introduction to Futures Studies: Methods and TechniquesVahid Shamekhi
This document provides an overview of various futures studies methods and techniques, including:
1) Technology monitoring and forecasting to gather information and anticipate technological changes.
2) Qualitative and quantitative techniques like scenario planning, roadmapping, and cross-impact analysis to explore uncertainties and alternative futures.
3) Participatory methods like the Delphi technique and futures workshops to incorporate diverse perspectives.
It also describes several specific techniques in more detail, such as environmental scanning, trend analysis, causal layered analysis, and relevance trees/morphological analysis. The document serves as an introduction to the field of futures studies and the range of analytical approaches used.
This document discusses using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) for feature selection in bankruptcy prediction models. The goal is to maximize classifier accuracy while minimizing the number of features. A two-objective problem of minimizing features and maximizing accuracy is analyzed using logistic regression and support vector machines classifiers. The methodology is tested on financial data from 1200 French companies and shown to be an efficient feature selection approach, obtaining best results when optimizing both accuracy and classifier parameters simultaneously.
Corporate bankruptcy prediction using Deep learning techniquesShantanu Deshpande
This document proposes using deep learning techniques like LSTM neural networks to predict corporate bankruptcy by integrating both financial ratio data and textual disclosures from annual reports. It notes that previous studies have largely relied on statistical models or used only financial data with machine learning. The researcher aims to determine if adding textual data to an LSTM model improves prediction performance over a CNN model using only financial ratios. The document outlines the research question, objectives, and provides an overview of previous bankruptcy prediction studies using statistical, machine learning and deep learning methods.
Machine learning algorithms can be used in various areas of banking and central banking. Specifically, this document discusses:
1) Using machine learning for traditional credit risk modeling to forecast probability of default and assess financial stability.
2) Applying machine learning to time series forecasting of macroeconomic variables like inflation for monetary policy purposes.
3) Performing text mining on central bank research documents and news articles to measure economic uncertainty and risk in financial markets.
Machine learning algorithms can be used in various areas of banking and central banking. Specifically:
1) Traditional credit risk modeling can be enhanced with machine learning to predict probability of credit defaults based on borrower and macroeconomic variables.
2) Central banks can use credit bureau data and machine learning to monitor credit quality in real-time and provide recommendations to commercial banks.
3) Machine learning methods like random forests and neural networks outperform traditional models in time series forecasting of macroeconomic variables like inflation.
4) Unstructured text and narrative data from news, market commentary, and reports can be analyzed with machine learning to measure economic sentiment, risk, uncertainty and consensus.
اثر نظم المعلومات الحديثة على عملية صناعة قرارات الادارة الماليةMoumni Nabil
This document discusses the impact of modern information systems on the financial decision making process. It begins by defining key terms like modern information systems, financial management, and the decision making process. It then outlines the study's objectives and methodology, which involved distributing questionnaires to managers at seven banks in Jordan.
The results found several problems with how modern information systems are currently applied, especially regarding realizing their benefits for financial decision support. Banks were also not fully leveraging experience systems and decision support tools. The study concluded with recommendations for improving how information systems are used to enhance financial management decisions.
Introduction to Futures Studies: Methods and TechniquesVahid Shamekhi
This document provides an overview of various futures studies methods and techniques, including:
1) Technology monitoring and forecasting to gather information and anticipate technological changes.
2) Qualitative and quantitative techniques like scenario planning, roadmapping, and cross-impact analysis to explore uncertainties and alternative futures.
3) Participatory methods like the Delphi technique and futures workshops to incorporate diverse perspectives.
It also describes several specific techniques in more detail, such as environmental scanning, trend analysis, causal layered analysis, and relevance trees/morphological analysis. The document serves as an introduction to the field of futures studies and the range of analytical approaches used.
This document discusses using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) for feature selection in bankruptcy prediction models. The goal is to maximize classifier accuracy while minimizing the number of features. A two-objective problem of minimizing features and maximizing accuracy is analyzed using logistic regression and support vector machines classifiers. The methodology is tested on financial data from 1200 French companies and shown to be an efficient feature selection approach, obtaining best results when optimizing both accuracy and classifier parameters simultaneously.
Corporate bankruptcy prediction using Deep learning techniquesShantanu Deshpande
This document proposes using deep learning techniques like LSTM neural networks to predict corporate bankruptcy by integrating both financial ratio data and textual disclosures from annual reports. It notes that previous studies have largely relied on statistical models or used only financial data with machine learning. The researcher aims to determine if adding textual data to an LSTM model improves prediction performance over a CNN model using only financial ratios. The document outlines the research question, objectives, and provides an overview of previous bankruptcy prediction studies using statistical, machine learning and deep learning methods.
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Running head: Data MINING 1
Data MINING 8
Data Mining
Student: Avinash Kustagi
University of Cumberlands
Course Name: Business Intelligence
Course number: ITS-531
Professor: Dr. Abiodun Adeleke
05/29/2020
Data mining can be explained as the method to interpret information and hypothesis from large knowledge and data collections like databases or data warehouses.
Data mining popularity is increasing rapidly right now in the world. It is slowly becoming one of the most desired fields of work in the world right now. Data plays a
very big role in developing and shaping a business. It is because of Data mining that an organization comes to know more about what the market has demand for and
what their customers prefer and what they absolutely dislike. Data mining has proven to be extremely helpful in making valuable and important business decisions.
As described in the article” Business data mining — a machine learning perspective”, data mining has become an integral part of business development (Bose &
Mahapatra, 2001). Data mining has several applications in different fields of life. It is used in the field of finance, television industry, education, retail industry, and
telecommunication industry. Data mining is very valuable in the field of finance. Data mining help in data analysis to find a result in loan prediction. It gives an analysis
of the customer’s credit history and fraud detection (Valcheva, n.d.). It also assists in determining the previous money laundering trends and deduces a conclusion
about any unusual patterns in a credit history. It also assists in helping develop targeted marketing. In the field of finance, data mining and analysis helps in deducing
conclusion results from the previous trend in markets to determine what fiscal produc.
An Innovative Approach to Predict Bankruptcyvivatechijri
Bankruptcy is a legal status of a person or other organization that cannot repay their debts to
creditors. Bankruptcy prediction is the task of predicting bankruptcy and by doing various surveys we can avoid
financial distress of firms. It is a huge area of accounting and finance research. The significance of this area is
an important part of financial specialists and creditors in assessing the probability that a firm may go bankrupt
or not. Estimating the risk of corporate bankruptcies is very important as the effect of bankruptcy is on a global
level. The aim of predicting financial distress is to develop a predictive model that combines various economic
factors which allow foreseeing the financial status of a firm. In this domain, various methods were proposed that
were based on neural networks, Support Vector Machines, Decision Trees, Random Forests, Naïve Bayes,
Balanced Bagging and Logistic Regression. In this paper, we document our observations as we explore and build
a Restricted Boltzmann Machine to Bankruptcy Prediction. We started by carrying out data pre-processing where
we impute the missing data values using Mean Imputation. To solve the data imbalance issue, we apply the
Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) to oversample the minority class labels. Finally, we
analyze and evaluate the performance of the model.
This thesis examines the impact of monetary policy on commercial bank balance sheet variables in sub-Saharan Africa. The study employs a dynamic panel data methodology to investigate the effects of monetary policy, as captured by real interest rates, on bank credit, liquid assets, and deposits using data from 31 sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2014. Diagnostic tests show that the models are valid. The results indicate that monetary policy, bank capitalization levels, and their interaction have significant impacts on balance sheet variables both at the regional level and across sub-Saharan Africa as a whole.
Financial revolution: a systemic analysis of artificial intelligence and mach...IJECEIAES
This paper reviews the advances, challenges, and approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the banking sector. The use of these technologies is accelerating in various industries, including banking. However, the literature on banking is scattered, making a global understanding difficult. This study reviewed the main approaches in terms of applications and algorithmic models, as well as the benefits and challenges associated with their implementation in banking, in addition to a bibliometric analysis of variables related to the distribution of publications and the most productive countries, as well as an analysis of the co-occurrence and dynamics of keywords. Following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) framework, forty articles were selected for review. The results indicate that these technologies are used in the banking sector for customer segmentation, credit risk analysis, recommendation, and fraud detection. It should be noted that credit analysis and fraud detection are the most implemented areas, using algorithms such as random forests (RF), decision trees (DT), support vector machines (SVM), and logistic regression (LR), among others. In addition, their use brings significant benefits for decision-making and optimizing banking operations. However, the handling of substantial amounts of data with these technologies poses ethical challenges.
The Standard Asian Merchant Bank is a Malaysian merchant bank headqu.pdfamitjewels87
The Standard Asian Merchant Bank is a Malaysian merchant bank headquartered in Kuala
Lumpur. The bank provides financial services in asset management, corporate finance, and
securities broking. Clients of The Standard Asian Merchant Bank are among others institutional
investors, foundations, (semi) public institutions, companies, and high net- worth individual
clients. Segments in which The Standard Asian Merchant Bank operates are small and medium-
sized listed companies, real estate, and biotech firms.
Syafiq Aimi is a Business student from the National University of Malaysia which is located in
Bangi, Selangor - about 35 km south of Kuala Lumpur. Syafiq is currently undertaking a
research project for the Structured Products (SP) desk of The Standard Asian Merchant Banks
securities department. The SP desk is responsible for developing and selling structured products:
investments that consist of a portfolio of securities and derivatives. Structured products are
investment instruments that are created to meet specific needs that cannot be met from
standardized financial instruments. The products of the SP desk are tailor-made and they are
developed based on the Standard Asian Merchant Banks niche specializations which are Asian
listed real estate companies, life sciences companies, and shares.
The SP desk of The Standard Asian Merchant Bank has its own website that is primarily used to
provide information to the users of the website. The website contains information about the
products offered (e.g., brochures, legal documents, and bid-ask spreads), publications, and
contact information. The website can be classified as a services-oriented relationship- building
website. There are two main groups of website users; financial advisors and institutional clients
of the SP desk. They use the website to examine product features, prices of the products offered
by the SP desk, and legal information.
For the SP desk, there are several reasons why they have asked Syafiq to undertake a research
project:
1. Satisfaction with the website has never been measured. As a result, the SP desk does not know
how the users experience the website. The current content and layout of the website are based on
assumptions of what users are looking for on the website. For this reason, the website may
contain elements deemed unnecessary by the users and it might lack features that are important
to the users.
2. Users of the website only spend a small amount of time on the website. In 2011,
more than 70% (75.4%) of the visitors spent less than 30 seconds on the website of the SP desk
(AWStats, 2011). The products offered at the website are quite complex and clients often have a
lack of knowledge concerning Structured Products. Therefore it is desirable to encourage website
users to spend more time on the website.
3. The website is not self-explanatory. Consequently, people contact employees of the SP desk
to ask for explanation and clarification. This is a time consuming pr.
This document discusses predictive analytics and provides an overview of Oracle's predictive analytics tools.
It argues that predictive analytics is commonly misunderstood as only predicting the future, but can also be used to predict the present based on existing data patterns. It proposes a new conceptual classification of predictive analytics into "predicting the present" and "shaping the future". The document then provides examples of how Oracle Data Mining can be used to predict things in the present like customer preferences, fraud detection, and credit scoring. It also discusses how Oracle Real-Time Decisions integrates predictive analytics into real-time processes.
This document summarizes and compares various machine learning models for credit scoring and investment decisions using explainable AI techniques. It finds that ensemble classifiers like random forests and neural networks outperform individual classifiers. LIME and SHAP techniques are used to explain ML credit scoring models. The study also develops new investment models using ML algorithms to maximize profit while minimizing risk. A variety of ML algorithms are tested, including logistic regression, decision trees, LDA, QDA, AdaBoost, random forests, and neural networks. The random forest and AdaBoost models are tuned with hyperparameters. Model performance is evaluated using metrics like accuracy, derived from a confusion matrix.
This document discusses the relevance and implications of forecasting retail deposits. Forecasting retail deposits involves analyzing macroeconomic data to build models that can accurately predict future deposit levels given economic conditions. Accurately forecasting deposits is important for banks to inform strategic planning and decisions around operations, technology, and infrastructure needs. The implications of deposit forecasting are discussed from social and philosophical perspectives, including how forecasting stems from humans' innate desire to understand and prepare for an uncertain future.
This document discusses technological developments in the Indian banking sector and analyzes the impact of electronic banking (e-banking) on banks' financial performance. It outlines key events in India's e-banking development like the introduction of debit/credit cards, electronic funds transfer, real-time gross settlement systems. The document also examines different studies that have analyzed the relationship between e-banking investments and banks' profitability and productivity, with mixed findings. Committee reports from the Reserve Bank of India on computerization and e-banking in the 1980s-1990s are also summarized.
Determinants of bank's interest margin in the aftermath of the crisis: the ef...Ivie
This study analyzes the determinants of banks' net interest margins during 2008-2014, when monetary policy measures were expansionary. The authors estimate a model where net interest margin depends on factors including: short-term interest rates; the slope of the yield curve; market power; credit risk; interest rate risk; costs; and reserves. The results suggest net interest margins are positively affected by short-term rates and the yield curve slope, but the relationships are nonlinear. Credit risk also positively impacts margins, while costs, liquid reserves, and efficiency negatively affect margins.
This document presents a system for predicting corporate bankruptcy using textual disclosures from SEC filings. It discusses how previous studies have used financial ratios and market data to predict bankruptcy, but that textual disclosures also provide important unstructured qualitative information. The proposed system uses natural language processing and machine learning algorithms to extract features from 10-K and 10-Q filings and predict bankruptcy with high accuracy, even before the final bankruptcy occurs. It aims to improve on previous bankruptcy prediction methods by incorporating both financial and textual data sources.
Case Study Measurement of Variables – Operational DefinitionsCh.docxwendolynhalbert
Case Study: Measurement of Variables – Operational Definitions
Chapter 11: The Standard Asian Merchant Bank
The Standard Asian Merchant Bank is a Malaysian merchant bank headquartered in Kuala Lumpur. The bank provides financial services in asset management, corporate finance, and securities broking. Clients of The Standard Asian Merchant Bank are among others institutional investors, foundations, (semi) public institutions, companies, and high net- worth individual clients. Segments in which The Standard Asian Merchant Bank operates are small and medium-sized listed companies, real estate, and biotech firms.
Syafiq Aimi is a Business student from the National University of Malaysia which is located in Bangi, Selangor - about 35 km south of Kuala Lumpur. Syafiq is currently undertaking a research project for the Structured Products (SP) desk of The Standard Asian Merchant Bank’s securities department. The SP desk is responsible for developing and selling structured products: investments that consist of a portfolio of securities and derivatives. Structured products are investment instruments that are created to meet specific needs that cannot be met from standardized financial instruments. The products of the SP desk are tailor-made and they are developed based on the Standard Asian Merchant Bank’s niche specializations which are Asian listed real estate companies, life sciences companies, and shares.
The SP desk of The Standard Asian Merchant Bank has its own website that is primarily used to provide information to the users of the website. The website contains information about the products offered (e.g., brochures, legal documents, and bid-ask spreads), publications, and contact information. The website can be classified as a services-oriented relationship- building website. There are two main groups of website users; financial advisors and institutional clients of the SP desk. They use the website to examine product features, prices of the products offered by the SP desk, and legal information.
For the SP desk, there are several reasons why they have asked Syafiq to undertake a research project:
1. Satisfaction with the website has never been measured. As a result, the SP desk does not know how the users experience the website. The current content and layout of the website are based on assumptions of what users are looking for on the website. For this reason, the website may contain elements deemed unnecessary by the users and it might lack features that are important to the users.
2. Users of the website only spend a small amount of time on the website. In 2011,
more than 70% (75.4%) of the visitors spent less than 30 seconds on the website of the SP desk (AWStats, 2011). The products offered at the website are quite complex and clients often have a lack of knowledge concerning Structured Products. Therefore i ...
- The document analyzes the impact of information technology (IT) investments on organizational performance in Pakistan's banking and manufacturing sectors from 1994-2005.
- It finds that IT investments have a positive impact on performance for most organizations as measured by increases in income and decreases in the employee to IT expense ratio over time.
- Banking sector performance was more positively impacted by IT than manufacturing. Local banks saw greater benefits from IT than foreign banks, while foreign manufacturers benefited more than local ones.
The document discusses issues related to air pollution from the aviation industry, noting the environmental impact of carbon emissions and the health effects of noise pollution from aircraft. It also touches on challenges related to limited airspace and airport capacities, which sometimes forces aircraft to remain airborne while waiting to land. Strategies are needed to reduce the industry's environmental footprint through more stringent emission standards and efficient airport planning.
This document discusses sector analysis and using the logical framework approach to analyze an education system. It describes sector analysis as collecting and critically examining internal and external factors relating to the education system. These include how the system functions internally and external conditions influencing the system. The logical framework approach is presented as an analytical technique to structure the situation analysis, establish objectives, and identify risks. Key aspects of the logical framework like the matrix, problem analysis, SWOT analysis, and stakeholder analysis are outlined.
This document provides an overview of data analytics including:
- The basics of data analytics including analytics definitions and the need for data analytics due to increasing data volumes.
- Descriptions of different types of analytics including descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive analytics and their purposes.
- An overview of the data analytics lifecycle including phases such as data preparation, model planning, model building, and communication of results.
Rafael Love is a quantitatively-driven bank professional with 9 years of experience in financial risk modeling and management at the Federal Home Loan Banks of San Francisco and Atlanta. He has skills in Excel modeling, VBA, and risk analytics. Currently he leads market risk modeling and reporting at the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, where he automates processes, creates risk reports, and participates in stress testing. He holds an M.S. in Quantitative and Computational Finance from Georgia Tech and a B.S. in Engineering Physics.
Business analytics involves using data, statistical analysis, quantitative methods, and business intelligence to understand and analyze business performance. Key aspects of business analytics include analyzing key performance indicators, common metrics like profitability and market share, and understanding factors that impact performance. Analytics techniques include statistical analysis, machine learning, and data management processes applied to problems like demand forecasting, customer churn prediction, and decision-making. The goal is to generate insights and recommendations to improve business performance and competitive strategies.
Here are the key points regarding cost management techniques and accounting principles from the 1950s-1960s compared to today:
- The basic cost management techniques and accounting principles from the 1950s-1960s such as cost accounting, budgeting, and financial reporting have not changed dramatically in how they help manage costs and provide financial information. The core functions of tracking costs, setting budgets, and reporting financial performance remain largely the same.
- However, the context in which these techniques are applied has changed significantly. Factors like increased globalization, rapid technological advancement, and greater competitiveness require more agile, data-driven cost management compared to the 1950s-1960s.
- While the underlying principles are similar, the way data
Rafael Love is a quantitatively-driven bank professional with 9 years of experience in financial risk modeling and management at the Federal Home Loan Banks of San Francisco and Atlanta. He has skills in Excel, VBA, risk reporting, asset-liability management, and model development. Rafael holds an M.S. in Quantitative and Computational Finance from Georgia Tech and a B.S. in Engineering Physics from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.
Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches to deal with finding an optimal reward based policy to act in an environment (Charla en Inglés)
However, what has led to their widespread use is its combination with deep neural networks (DNN) i.e., deep reinforcement learning (Deep RL). Recent successes on not only learning to play games but also superseding humans in it and academia-industry research collaborations like for manipulation of objects, locomotion skills, smart grids, etc. have surely demonstrated their case on a wide variety of challenging tasks.
With application spanning across games, robotics, dialogue, healthcare, marketing, energy and many more domains, Deep RL might just be the power that drives the next generation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents!
This document discusses the application of machine learning in healthcare. It provides an overview of machine learning and data science concepts and methodologies like the CRISP-DM process. It also discusses challenges with non-communicable diseases and opportunities for applying machine learning to areas like precision medicine, disease diagnosis, and clinical trials optimization using diverse healthcare data sources. Machine learning can help address issues like reducing healthcare costs and improving outcomes for conditions like diabetes and cardiovascular disease.
More Related Content
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Running head: Data MINING 1
Data MINING 8
Data Mining
Student: Avinash Kustagi
University of Cumberlands
Course Name: Business Intelligence
Course number: ITS-531
Professor: Dr. Abiodun Adeleke
05/29/2020
Data mining can be explained as the method to interpret information and hypothesis from large knowledge and data collections like databases or data warehouses.
Data mining popularity is increasing rapidly right now in the world. It is slowly becoming one of the most desired fields of work in the world right now. Data plays a
very big role in developing and shaping a business. It is because of Data mining that an organization comes to know more about what the market has demand for and
what their customers prefer and what they absolutely dislike. Data mining has proven to be extremely helpful in making valuable and important business decisions.
As described in the article” Business data mining — a machine learning perspective”, data mining has become an integral part of business development (Bose &
Mahapatra, 2001). Data mining has several applications in different fields of life. It is used in the field of finance, television industry, education, retail industry, and
telecommunication industry. Data mining is very valuable in the field of finance. Data mining help in data analysis to find a result in loan prediction. It gives an analysis
of the customer’s credit history and fraud detection (Valcheva, n.d.). It also assists in determining the previous money laundering trends and deduces a conclusion
about any unusual patterns in a credit history. It also assists in helping develop targeted marketing. In the field of finance, data mining and analysis helps in deducing
conclusion results from the previous trend in markets to determine what fiscal produc.
An Innovative Approach to Predict Bankruptcyvivatechijri
Bankruptcy is a legal status of a person or other organization that cannot repay their debts to
creditors. Bankruptcy prediction is the task of predicting bankruptcy and by doing various surveys we can avoid
financial distress of firms. It is a huge area of accounting and finance research. The significance of this area is
an important part of financial specialists and creditors in assessing the probability that a firm may go bankrupt
or not. Estimating the risk of corporate bankruptcies is very important as the effect of bankruptcy is on a global
level. The aim of predicting financial distress is to develop a predictive model that combines various economic
factors which allow foreseeing the financial status of a firm. In this domain, various methods were proposed that
were based on neural networks, Support Vector Machines, Decision Trees, Random Forests, Naïve Bayes,
Balanced Bagging and Logistic Regression. In this paper, we document our observations as we explore and build
a Restricted Boltzmann Machine to Bankruptcy Prediction. We started by carrying out data pre-processing where
we impute the missing data values using Mean Imputation. To solve the data imbalance issue, we apply the
Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) to oversample the minority class labels. Finally, we
analyze and evaluate the performance of the model.
This thesis examines the impact of monetary policy on commercial bank balance sheet variables in sub-Saharan Africa. The study employs a dynamic panel data methodology to investigate the effects of monetary policy, as captured by real interest rates, on bank credit, liquid assets, and deposits using data from 31 sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2014. Diagnostic tests show that the models are valid. The results indicate that monetary policy, bank capitalization levels, and their interaction have significant impacts on balance sheet variables both at the regional level and across sub-Saharan Africa as a whole.
Financial revolution: a systemic analysis of artificial intelligence and mach...IJECEIAES
This paper reviews the advances, challenges, and approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the banking sector. The use of these technologies is accelerating in various industries, including banking. However, the literature on banking is scattered, making a global understanding difficult. This study reviewed the main approaches in terms of applications and algorithmic models, as well as the benefits and challenges associated with their implementation in banking, in addition to a bibliometric analysis of variables related to the distribution of publications and the most productive countries, as well as an analysis of the co-occurrence and dynamics of keywords. Following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) framework, forty articles were selected for review. The results indicate that these technologies are used in the banking sector for customer segmentation, credit risk analysis, recommendation, and fraud detection. It should be noted that credit analysis and fraud detection are the most implemented areas, using algorithms such as random forests (RF), decision trees (DT), support vector machines (SVM), and logistic regression (LR), among others. In addition, their use brings significant benefits for decision-making and optimizing banking operations. However, the handling of substantial amounts of data with these technologies poses ethical challenges.
The Standard Asian Merchant Bank is a Malaysian merchant bank headqu.pdfamitjewels87
The Standard Asian Merchant Bank is a Malaysian merchant bank headquartered in Kuala
Lumpur. The bank provides financial services in asset management, corporate finance, and
securities broking. Clients of The Standard Asian Merchant Bank are among others institutional
investors, foundations, (semi) public institutions, companies, and high net- worth individual
clients. Segments in which The Standard Asian Merchant Bank operates are small and medium-
sized listed companies, real estate, and biotech firms.
Syafiq Aimi is a Business student from the National University of Malaysia which is located in
Bangi, Selangor - about 35 km south of Kuala Lumpur. Syafiq is currently undertaking a
research project for the Structured Products (SP) desk of The Standard Asian Merchant Banks
securities department. The SP desk is responsible for developing and selling structured products:
investments that consist of a portfolio of securities and derivatives. Structured products are
investment instruments that are created to meet specific needs that cannot be met from
standardized financial instruments. The products of the SP desk are tailor-made and they are
developed based on the Standard Asian Merchant Banks niche specializations which are Asian
listed real estate companies, life sciences companies, and shares.
The SP desk of The Standard Asian Merchant Bank has its own website that is primarily used to
provide information to the users of the website. The website contains information about the
products offered (e.g., brochures, legal documents, and bid-ask spreads), publications, and
contact information. The website can be classified as a services-oriented relationship- building
website. There are two main groups of website users; financial advisors and institutional clients
of the SP desk. They use the website to examine product features, prices of the products offered
by the SP desk, and legal information.
For the SP desk, there are several reasons why they have asked Syafiq to undertake a research
project:
1. Satisfaction with the website has never been measured. As a result, the SP desk does not know
how the users experience the website. The current content and layout of the website are based on
assumptions of what users are looking for on the website. For this reason, the website may
contain elements deemed unnecessary by the users and it might lack features that are important
to the users.
2. Users of the website only spend a small amount of time on the website. In 2011,
more than 70% (75.4%) of the visitors spent less than 30 seconds on the website of the SP desk
(AWStats, 2011). The products offered at the website are quite complex and clients often have a
lack of knowledge concerning Structured Products. Therefore it is desirable to encourage website
users to spend more time on the website.
3. The website is not self-explanatory. Consequently, people contact employees of the SP desk
to ask for explanation and clarification. This is a time consuming pr.
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Case Study Measurement of Variables – Operational DefinitionsCh.docxwendolynhalbert
Case Study: Measurement of Variables – Operational Definitions
Chapter 11: The Standard Asian Merchant Bank
The Standard Asian Merchant Bank is a Malaysian merchant bank headquartered in Kuala Lumpur. The bank provides financial services in asset management, corporate finance, and securities broking. Clients of The Standard Asian Merchant Bank are among others institutional investors, foundations, (semi) public institutions, companies, and high net- worth individual clients. Segments in which The Standard Asian Merchant Bank operates are small and medium-sized listed companies, real estate, and biotech firms.
Syafiq Aimi is a Business student from the National University of Malaysia which is located in Bangi, Selangor - about 35 km south of Kuala Lumpur. Syafiq is currently undertaking a research project for the Structured Products (SP) desk of The Standard Asian Merchant Bank’s securities department. The SP desk is responsible for developing and selling structured products: investments that consist of a portfolio of securities and derivatives. Structured products are investment instruments that are created to meet specific needs that cannot be met from standardized financial instruments. The products of the SP desk are tailor-made and they are developed based on the Standard Asian Merchant Bank’s niche specializations which are Asian listed real estate companies, life sciences companies, and shares.
The SP desk of The Standard Asian Merchant Bank has its own website that is primarily used to provide information to the users of the website. The website contains information about the products offered (e.g., brochures, legal documents, and bid-ask spreads), publications, and contact information. The website can be classified as a services-oriented relationship- building website. There are two main groups of website users; financial advisors and institutional clients of the SP desk. They use the website to examine product features, prices of the products offered by the SP desk, and legal information.
For the SP desk, there are several reasons why they have asked Syafiq to undertake a research project:
1. Satisfaction with the website has never been measured. As a result, the SP desk does not know how the users experience the website. The current content and layout of the website are based on assumptions of what users are looking for on the website. For this reason, the website may contain elements deemed unnecessary by the users and it might lack features that are important to the users.
2. Users of the website only spend a small amount of time on the website. In 2011,
more than 70% (75.4%) of the visitors spent less than 30 seconds on the website of the SP desk (AWStats, 2011). The products offered at the website are quite complex and clients often have a lack of knowledge concerning Structured Products. Therefore i ...
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Whose Balance Sheet is this? Neural Networks for Banks’ Pattern Recognition
1. Big Data & Data Science | Bogotá | Colombia | Octubre 27, 2016
Whose Balance Sheet is this?
Neural Networks for Banks’ Pattern Recognition
Carlos León
Banco de la República (Colombia)
& Tilburg University
cleonrin@banrep.gov.co
Jose Fernando Moreno
Barcelona Grad. School of Economics
jose.moreno@barcelonagse.eu
Jorge Cely
Banco de la República (Colombia)
jcelyfe@banrep.gov.co
7. Disclaimer
The opinions and statements in this article are the sole responsibility of the authors
and do not represent neither those of Banco de la República nor of its Board of
Directors. Comments and suggestions from Hernando Vargas, Clara Machado,
Freddy Cepeda, Fabio Ortega, and other members of the technical staff of Banco
de la República are appreciated. Any remaining errors are the authors’ own.
http://www.banrep.gov.co/sites/default/files/publicaciones/archivos/be_959.pdf
8. Contents
1. Introduction
2. Related literature
3. Artificial neural networks and pattern recognition
3.1. Artificial neural network models
3.2. Training the artificial neural network
3.3. Post-training analysis
4. Data and methodology
5. Main results
6. Final remarks
9. Introduction
Balance sheets’ overall informational content …
o … information about the past performance of a firm, and a starting point for
forecasts of future performance (Chisholm, 2002)
o … assess the overall composition of resources, the constriction of external
obligations, and the firm’s flexibility and ability to change to meet new
requirements (Kaliski, 2001)
In the banking industry …
o … among the minimum periodic reports that banks should provide to
supervisors to conduct effective supervision and to evaluate the condition of
the local banking market (BCBS, 1997 & 1998)
o … traditional supervisory examination has focused on the assessment of
bank’s balance sheets (see Mishkin, 2004)
o … and they have been related to bank lending, investment spending, and
economic activity, and the advent of financial crisis (see Mishkin, 2004)
10. Introduction
Therefore, the balance sheet may be considered …
o A unique and characteristic combination of financial accounts (i.e. the
elements of financial statements) that not only allows for assessing a bank’s
financial stance, but that also differentiates it from its peers
o A snapshot of a bank
Question: can we train a model to deal with balance sheets as
snapshots to recognize their owners with fair accuracy?
Why? Because it is the first step towards training a model to
o Detect important changes in banks’ financial accounts
o Classify banks (fragility, riskiness, … )
o State-of-the-art early-warning systems (e.g. Fioramanti (2008), Sarlin (2014),
and Holopainen & Sarlin (2016))
11. Introduction
How? Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
o Effective classifiers, better than classical statistical methods (Wu (1997),
Zhang et al. (1999), McNelis (2005), and Han & Kamber (2006))
o No assumptions about the statistical porperties of the data (Zhang et al.
(1999), McNelis (2005), Demyanyk & Hasan (2009), and Nazari & Alidadi
(2013))
o Able to deal with non-linear relationships between factors in the data
(Bishop (1995), Han & Kamber (2006), Demyanyk & Hasan (2009), Eletter
et al. (2010), and Hagan et al. (2014))
But… ANN have been criticized because results are opaque and they
lack interpretability –black box criticism (Han & Kamber (2006),
Angelini et al. (2008), and Witten et al. (2011)) … do we care?
12. Introduction
Black box criticism comes from a desire to tie down empirical estimation
with an underlying economic theory (McNelis, 05)
We do not care about the black box criticism because we have no
underlying economic theory to test
This is predictive modeling –not explanatory modeling (see Shmueli, 2010)
Explanatory Modeling
• The aim is to test a causal theory (traditional
econometrics)
• Requires building an underlying causal
structure (a theoretical prior)
• Need to work on expected role of variables
Predictive Modeling
• The aim is to predict or classify successfully
• No need to build an underlying causal
structure (a theoretical prior)
• No need to delve into the expected role of
the variables
Machine LearningEconometrics
13. Introduction
Explanatory Modeling
• The aim is to test a causal theory (traditional
econometrics)
• Requires building an underlying causal
structure (a theoretical prior)
• Need to work on expected role of variables
Predictive Modeling
• The aim is to predict or classify successfully
• No need to build an underlying causal
structure (a theoretical prior)
• No need to delve into the expected role of
the variables
Machine LearningEconometrics
Varian, H. (2014):
• […] econometrics is concerned with detecting and summarizing relationships in data,
with regression analysis as its prevalent tool.
• […] machine learning methods –such as artificial neural networks- are concerned with
developing high-performance computer systems that can provide useful predictions,
namely out-of-sample predictions.
14. Contents
1. Introduction
2. Related literature
3. Artificial neural networks and pattern recognition
3.1. Artificial neural network models
3.2. Training the artificial neural network
3.3. Post-training analysis
4. Data and methodology
5. Main results
6. Final remarks
16. Related literature
• Pattern recognition (classification)
– Aims at classifying inputs into a set of target categories (Hagan et al., 2014)
– Mainly a supervised machine learning problem: for training, each example
pertains to a known category
– Wide spectrum: facial recognition, image classification, voice recognition, text
translation, fraud detection, classification of handwritten characters, and
medical diagnosis
– Contemporary success due to:
• Big data is now available for successful training
• Great computational power is now available for ANN
• Deep learning for particularly complex ANN (Schmidhuber (2015))
17. Related literature
• ANN on financial data (financial ratios)
– Bankruptcy/failure prediction based on classification of firms
• Non- financial (Rudorfer (1995), Zhang et al. (1999), Atiya (2001), Brédart (2014))
• Financial (Tam & Kiang (1990), Tam (1991), Olmeda & Fernández (1997))
– Loan decisions in retail and corporate banking (Angelini et al. (2008),
Eletter et al. (2010), Nazari & Alidadi (2013), Bekhet & Eletter (2014))
– Local/foreign bank classification (Turkan et al. (2011))
– Islamic/conventional bank classification (Khediri et al. (2015))
– Auditing/no auditing firms for tax evasion (Wu (1997))
– State-of-the-art early warning systems
• Sovereign debt crises prediction (Fioramanti (2008))
• Country-specific fin. crises (Sarlin, (2014), Holopainen & Sarlin (2016))
18. Related literature
• ANNs’ increasingly important role in financial applications for
such tasks as pattern recognition, classification, and time series
forecasting (Naziri & Alidadi (2013) and Eletter & Yaseen
(2010))
• In our case…
– Instead of selecting the “appropriate” set of financial ratios…
– We work on raw balance sheets (the input for financial ratios)
– Beware: when working on selected financial ratios we discard potentially
useful information due to our cognitive bias (or plain ignorance).
– To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time raw balance sheets are
encoded as inputs for a pattern recognition problem
19. Contents
1. Introduction
2. Related literature
3. Artificial neural networks and pattern recognition
3.1. Artificial neural network models
3.2. Training the artificial neural network
3.3. Post-training analysis
4. Data and methodology
5. Main results
6. Final remarks
20. ANNs and pattern recognition
• ANNs are networks of interconnected artificial neurons, with the
weights of those connections resulting from a learning process that
attempts to minimize the prediction/classification error of the input-
output function
• The central idea of ANNs is to extract linear combinations of the
inputs as derived features, and then model the output (i.e. the target)
as a nonlinear function of these features. (Hastie et al., 2013)
• The simplest case is the feed-forward ANN (our choice for what
follows).
• Other ANNs cases are more complex, but may open new ways to
solve more complex problems (e.g. recurrent ANNs, convolutional
ANNs, reinforcement ANNs). We do not describe them.
21. Contents
1. Introduction
2. Related literature
3. Artificial neural networks and pattern recognition
3.1. Artificial neural network models
3.2. Training the artificial neural network
3.3. Post-training analysis
4. Data and methodology
5. Main results
6. Final remarks
24. ANN models
Activation function:
• Classification
Log-sigmoid function
Softmax function*
(*) According to G. Hinton, it is convenient as 1) it may be interpreted as a probability, and 2) it provides additional knowledge to the training process.
26. Contents
1. Introduction
2. Related literature
3. Artificial neural networks and pattern recognition
3.1. Artificial neural network models
3.2. Training the artificial neural network
3.3. Post-training analysis
4. Data and methodology
5. Main results
6. Final remarks
27. Training the ANN
• Training: Adjusting parameters in W and b in order to attain an
input-output relationship target under the chosen transfer
functions for a set of observations (i.e. examples)
• Backpropagation:
– Backpropagation learns by iteratively processing a dataset of training
examples (i.e. observations), comparing network’s prediction (i.e.
output) for each example with the actual target value
– Parameters in W and b are modified in backwards direction, from the
output layer, through each hidden layer down to the first hidden layer –
hence its name (Han & Kamber, 2006)
28. Training the ANN
• Backpropagation (cont.):
– Backpropagation usually employs some type of gradient descent method
to minimize the error between the prediction and the actual target value
Sum (or mean) of squared errors, for prediction or classification Cross-entropy, for classification
29. Training the ANN
• Unlike typical applications of regression models in econometrics, the
goal of training an artificial neural network is not limited to
minimizing in-sample the errors.
• The overfitting problem may be described as the model’s ability to
succeed at fitting in-sample but to fail at fitting out-of-sample (see
Shmueli (2010), Varian (2014))
• The goal is not to memorize the training data, but to model the
underlying generator of the data (Bishop, 1995)
• Early stopping:
– Halt the minimization process before the complexity of the solution inhibits
its generalization capability
– If training is stopped before the minimum in-sample is reached, then the
network will effectively be using fewer parameters and will be less likely to
overfit (Hagan et al., 2014)
30. Training the ANN
• Early stopping with cross-validation (Hagan et al., 2014):
Training dataset
(70%)
Validation dataset
(15%)
Test dataset
(15%)
The training set is used to minimize the error between the
prediction and the actual target value
The (large) dataset
The validation dataset is used simultaneously (as the neural
network is trained) to check how the estimated parameters fit out-
of-sample data. When validation error starts to increase (i.e.
overfitting starts), the training stops.
The error obtained on the test dataset is used to check the future
performance of the artificial neural network on out-of-sample
data, i.e. its generalization capability.
31. Contents
1. Introduction
2. Related literature
3. Artificial neural networks and pattern recognition
3.1. Artificial neural network models
3.2. Training the artificial neural network
3.3. Post-training analysis
4. Data and methodology
5. Main results
6. Final remarks
32. Post-training analysis
• To test how good is the in-sample and out-of-sample training:
– For prediction: r2, scatter plots
– For classification:
• Confusion matrix: squared table that relates the actual
target class (in x-axis) with the predicted class (in y-axis)
• Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve: shows the
trade-off between the true positive rate (in y-axis) and the
false-positive rate (in x-axis) for a given model (Han &
Kamber, 2006)
33. Contents
1. Introduction
2. Related literature
3. Artificial neural networks and pattern recognition
3.1. Artificial neural network models
3.2. Training the artificial neural network
3.3. Post-training analysis
4. Data and methodology
5. Main results
6. Final remarks
34. Data and methodology
• Balance sheets
– 25 financial accounts (i.e. features)
– Monthly, from January 2000 to December 2014*
– 21 banks available (out of 41 that report)
• The ANN
– We implement a standard two-layer network, with one
hidden layer and one output layer; often a single hidden
layer is all that is necessary (see Zhang et al., (1999), Witten
et al. (2011))
– A base case scenario with a 15-neuron hidden layer
– Other scenarios for robustness (5, 10, 20, 25)
(*) From January 2015 balance sheets are reported based on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS-NIIF),
instead of COLGAAP. They are not consistent.
3,237 examples
35. Figure 12. Evolution of Colombian banks (2000-2014). Only banks active as of
December 2014 are presented. The name and type of credit institution (e.g. bank,
financial corporation, financial cooperative) of some institutions may have changed
during the sample period; the most recent name and type (i.e. bank) is preserved.
Some names were shortened.
37. Contents
1. Introduction
2. Related literature
3. Artificial neural networks and pattern recognition
3.1. Artificial neural network models
3.2. Training the artificial neural network
3.3. Post-training analysis
4. Data and methodology
5. Main results
6. Final remarks
38. Main results
• After training with early-stopping (1 hidden layer, 15 neurons)
Set
Samples
(balance sheets)
Performance
(cross-entropy)
Misclassification
(%)
Training 2,265 0.0012 0.35%
Validation 486 0.0044 1.65%
Test 486 0.0019 1.03%
Table 1. Overall results of the artificial neural network after training with cross-validation early-stopping.
In-sample
39. Main results
• After training with early-stopping (1 hidden layer, 15 neurons)
•In-sample
•Out-of-sample #1
•Out-of-sample #2
42. Main results
None of the classes (i.e. banks) displays a ratio of true positives to false positives close to the
diagonal. All classes show a high ratio of true positives to false positives.
In-sample Out-of-sample #2
43. Set
Misclassification (Average and standard deviation, %)
5 neurons 10 neurons 15 neurons 20 neurons 25 neurons
Training
19.75%
[15.37%]
3.41%
[9.84%]
0.61%
[0.43%]
0.15%
[0.29%]
0.10%
[0.23%]
Validation
20.99%
[15.23%]
4.86%
[9.87%]
1.64%
[0.81%]
1.00%
[0.70%]
0.91%
[0.72%]
Test
21.53%
[15.44%]
5.19%
[9.86%]
1.72%
[0.80%]
1.23%
[0.66%]
0.94%
[0.63%]
Table 2. Overall average results of the artificial neural network after training with cross-validation early-
stopping. The average and standard deviation (in brackets) is estimated on 100 independent training
processes.
Main results
In-sample
44. Contents
1. Introduction
2. Related literature
3. Artificial neural networks and pattern recognition
3.1. Artificial neural network models
3.2. Training the artificial neural network
3.3. Post-training analysis
4. Data and methodology
5. Main results
6. Final remarks
45. Final remarks
• We attained a successful implementation of ANN for pattern
classification of banks’ balance sheets
– Balance sheets are unique and representative snapshots of banks’ financial
position
– ANN is a suitable method for classifying balance sheets
• To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to use balance
sheet data as a comprehensive portrait of financial position of a firm
• Using raw balance sheets instead of arbitrarily chosen financial ratios
may alleviate selection bias problems (i.e. discarding potentially
useful information due to ignorance or reliance on prior research)
• There is a particularly straightforward application..
46. Final remarks
• Early-warning systems, as in Fioramanti (2008), Sarlin
(2014), and Holopainen & Sarlin (2016), but…
• With raw data (or mixtures of data)
47. Final remarks
• Early-warning systems, as in Fioramanti (2008), Sarlin
(2014), and Holopainen & Sarlin (2016), but…
• With raw data (or mixtures of data)
48. Final remarks
• Early-warning systems, as in Fioramanti (2008), Sarlin
(2014), and Holopainen & Sarlin (2016), but…
• With raw data (or mixtures of raw data + indicators)
49. Big Data & Data Science | Bogotá | Colombia | Octubre 27, 2016
Whose Balance Sheet is this?
Neural Networks for Banks’ Pattern Recognition