Steve Mullin presents predictions for the economic climate in the Greater Philadelphia region for the fiscal year 2016 to the Philadelphia Business Journal.

1. STEPHEN P. MULLIN, ECONSULT SOLUTIONS
January 14, 2016
What’s in Store for the Philadelphia
Regional Economy in 2016?

2. Philadelphia Regional Economy

3. Philadelphia Regional Economy
1.Will our region do better than it has in the past
relative to the U.S. economy?
2.Which parts of our region will show stronger
growth?
3.Demographic and economic trends.
4.Which sectors will lead and which will lag?
5.State/ Local Government

4. U.S. GDP Forecasts for 2016
Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys
Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Payrolls (000s/month)
Previous New Previous New Previous New
Quarterly data:
2015:Q4 2.8 2.6 5.1 5 220.4 201.5
2016:Q1 2.8 2.5 5.1 4.9 185.1 188.2
2016:Q2 2.8 2.6 5 4.8 191.3 193.5
2016:Q3 2.7 2.9 4.9 4.8 189.5 192
2016:Q4 N.A. 2.4 N.A. 4.7 N.A. 181.2
Source: FRB Philadelphia

5. Regional Population Trends
Source: Newgeography.com

6. Population
Source: Chestnuthilllocal.com

7. Population
Philadelphia County Population Change by Race and Ethnicity 1990 to 2012

8. Population
Philadelphia County Change in Immigrant Population 2000 to 2012

9. POPULATION: MILLENNIAL SHARE

10. Regional Employment Trends

11. Regional Employment Trends

12. Philadelphia Metro Unemployment Rates
Unemployment rates for counties in the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. Metropolitan Statistical Area,
not seasonally adjusted, September 2015

13. Regional Outlook
Markets
 Residential
 Institutional
 Commercial Retail
 Entertainment/ Hospitality
 Commercial Office
 Industrial/Distribution
Influencers/Issues
 Demographic Changes
 Energy Costs
 Tax/ Regulatory Reform
 Labor Costs/ Productivity
 K-12 Education / Budget
 Public Infrastructure Investment
and Quality, including
Transportation
 21st Century investments

14. RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTER
CITY
Residential Developments

15. REGIONAL MULTIFAMILY MARKET

16. Regional Office Market
Source: JLL Research

17. Greater Philadelphia Office, Q4 2015
Source: CBRE

18. Philly’s Hotel Boom

19. State and Local Government Roles
 Spending (education and pensions)
 Taxation
 Regulation
 Infrastructure Investment

20. Conclusion
1. Things to Watch.
2. Potential Headwinds.
3. Bold Forecasts.

21. Thank you!
Stephen P. Mullin
Mullin@econsultsolutions.com
215-717-2777