Frontiers of Urban Research & Applied Practice: A Think Tank Perspective October 2014
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Dr. Peter Angelides presents details of analysis of the real estate market and the insights that can be gained from the economic analyses.
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Frontiers of Urban Research & Applied Practice: A Think Tank Perspective October 2014
- 1. Frontiers Of Urban Research & Applied Practice: A Think Tank Perspective Lessons from the Intersection of the Public and Private Sector October 30, 2014 Peter Angelides, PhD, AICP Principal Econsult Solutions, Inc. Philadelphia, PA
- 2. OVERVIEW • Intersection of private interests and public policy • Questions situated within local political context
- 3. PRESENTATION OVERVIEW • TREND (Chicago) • East River Ferries (New York) • SEPTA (Philadelphia) ‒ Understanding the Economic Value ‒ Real Estate Impacts of Transit • Brent Spence Bridge (Cincinnati) • Philadelphia Water Department
- 4. TRANSFORMNG RETAIL ECONOMICS OF NEIGHBORHOOD DEVELOPMENT (TREND) • How does retail development impact overall neighborhood development? • Can selective retail investments steer or influence neighborhood development? • Requires extensive data gathering: - Surveys (online and in-person) - NETS, Census, etc.
- 5. TREND Online Survey – Interactive Mapping
- 6. TREND Online Survey – Interactive Mapping
- 7. TREND Online Survey – Personal History
- 15. EAST RIVER FERRIES - NYCEDC
- 16. EAST RIVER FERRIES Public Data
- 17. EAST RIVER FERRIES Property Records
- 18. EAST RIVER FERRIES Blocks Used in Analysis
- 19. EAST RIVER FERRIES Impact on Property Values
- 20. SEPTA: Economic Value to the Region 300.7 305.2 295.3 298.3 301.0 298.7 296.6 307.2 325.1 329.6 321.0 334.0 339.3 270.0 280.0 290.0 300.0 310.0 320.0 330.0 340.0 350.0 UNLINKEDPASSENGERTRIPS(MILLIONS)
- 21. SEPTA: Economic Value to the Region SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA IMPACTS ($ MILLIONS) CAPITAL INVESTMENT OPERATIONS TOTAL DIRECT OUTPUT $265 $920 $1,185 INDIRECT & INDUCED OUTPUT $305 $1,586 $1,892 TOTAL OUTPUT $570 $2,506 $3,077 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 4,079 19,971 24,050 TOTAL EARNINGS $170 $1,201 $1,371 STATE IMPACTS ($ MILLIONS) CAPITAL INVESTMENT OPERATIONS TOTAL DIRECT OUTPUT $289 $920 $1,209 INDIRECT & INDUCED OUTPUT $384 $1,613 $1,997 TOTAL OUTPUT $673 $2,533 $3,206 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 5,065 20,667 25,732 TOTAL EARNINGS $214 $1,237 $1,451 TOTAL TAX REVENUES $12 $51 $62
- 22. SEPTA: Economic Value to the Region IMPACT OF 40 PERCENT SERVICE ELIMINATION CITY OF PHILADELPHIA JOB LOSS (60,000) EARNINGS LOSS $(2.4B) PROPERTY VALUE LOSS $(14.3B) REGIONAL / COMMONWEALTH JOB LOSS (25,000) EARNINGS LOSS $(1.6B) PROPERTY VALUE LOSS $(8.4B)
- 23. SEPTA: Impact on Property Values
- 24. BRENT SPENCE BRIDGE CORRIDOR Context Map
- 25. BRENT SPENCE BRIDGE CORRIDOR Population Forecast
- 26. BRENT SPENCE BRIDGE CORRIDOR Population Forecast 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 TotalPopulation Hamilton Clermont Warren Butler Montgomery Greene Miami Boone Kenton Campbell Dearborn
- 29. TAX FORECASTS Earned Income Tax
Editor's Notes
- We exist at the intersection of private interests and public policy. In some cases our work is focused purely on public policy, and in others it addresses a private need in front of a public body. Generally the research questions are specific to a situation. Each policy question is different, but honest analysis can help shed light on these questions.
- How does retail affect neighborhood development? Can retail development drive neighborhood change? ---------- -Survey (get a screen shot of the online / mapping survey) ----------- -Survey (Picture of iPad with survey) ------------- -Corridor definition (NETS data), algorithm to define corridors. [picture of corridors from Garrett’s work -Ask Garrett to identify the coolest images] ------------ Results are not in yet…(picture of table) -----------------
- How does retail affect neighborhood development? Can retail development drive neighborhood change? ---------- -Survey (get a screen shot of the online / mapping survey) ----------- -Survey (Picture of iPad with survey) ------------- -Corridor definition (NETS data), algorithm to define corridors. [picture of corridors from Garrett’s work -Ask Garrett to identify the coolest images] ------------ Results are not in yet…(picture of table) -----------------
- How does retail affect neighborhood development? Can retail development drive neighborhood change? ---------- -Survey (get a screen shot of the online / mapping survey) ----------- -Survey (Picture of iPad with survey) ------------- -Corridor definition (NETS data), algorithm to define corridors. [picture of corridors from Garrett’s work -Ask Garrett to identify the coolest images] ------------ Results are not in yet…(picture of table) -----------------
- How does retail affect neighborhood development? Can retail development drive neighborhood change? ---------- -Survey (get a screen shot of the online / mapping survey) ----------- -Survey (Picture of iPad with survey) ------------- -Corridor definition (NETS data), algorithm to define corridors. [picture of corridors from Garrett’s work -Ask Garrett to identify the coolest images] ------------ Results are not in yet…(picture of table) -----------------
- How does retail affect neighborhood development? Can retail development drive neighborhood change? ---------- -Survey (get a screen shot of the online / mapping survey) ----------- -Survey (Picture of iPad with survey) ------------- -Corridor definition (NETS data), algorithm to define corridors. [picture of corridors from Garrett’s work -Ask Garrett to identify the coolest images] ------------ Results are not in yet…(picture of table) -----------------
- How does retail affect neighborhood development? Can retail development drive neighborhood change? ---------- -Survey (get a screen shot of the online / mapping survey) ----------- -Survey (Picture of iPad with survey) ------------- -Corridor definition (NETS data), algorithm to define corridors. [picture of corridors from Garrett’s work -Ask Garrett to identify the coolest images] ------------ Results are not in yet…(picture of table) -----------------
- How does retail affect neighborhood development? Can retail development drive neighborhood change? ---------- -Survey (get a screen shot of the online / mapping survey) ----------- -Survey (Picture of iPad with survey) ------------- -Corridor definition (NETS data), algorithm to define corridors. [picture of corridors from Garrett’s work -Ask Garrett to identify the coolest images] ------------ Results are not in yet…(picture of table) -----------------
- How does retail affect neighborhood development? Can retail development drive neighborhood change? ---------- -Survey (get a screen shot of the online / mapping survey) ----------- -Survey (Picture of iPad with survey) ------------- -Corridor definition (NETS data), algorithm to define corridors. [picture of corridors from Garrett’s work -Ask Garrett to identify the coolest images] ------------ Results are not in yet…(picture of table) -----------------
- How does retail affect neighborhood development? Can retail development drive neighborhood change? ---------- -Survey (get a screen shot of the online / mapping survey) ----------- -Survey (Picture of iPad with survey) ------------- -Corridor definition (NETS data), algorithm to define corridors. [picture of corridors from Garrett’s work -Ask Garrett to identify the coolest images] ------------ Results are not in yet…(picture of table) -----------------
- How does retail affect neighborhood development? Can retail development drive neighborhood change? ---------- -Survey (get a screen shot of the online / mapping survey) ----------- -Survey (Picture of iPad with survey) ------------- -Corridor definition (NETS data), algorithm to define corridors. [picture of corridors from Garrett’s work -Ask Garrett to identify the coolest images] ------------ Results are not in yet…(picture of table) -----------------
- How does retail affect neighborhood development? Can retail development drive neighborhood change? ---------- -Survey (get a screen shot of the online / mapping survey) ----------- -Survey (Picture of iPad with survey) ------------- -Corridor definition (NETS data), algorithm to define corridors. [picture of corridors from Garrett’s work -Ask Garrett to identify the coolest images] ------------ Results are not in yet…(picture of table) -----------------
- Generally - Should subsidies for East River Ferries be continued? Should the routes be extended? Specifically - What impact has ferry service had on property values in the areas served? -------------------- East River ferries serve two points in Manhattan and 5 in Brooklyn [Show map of ferry service - take directly from the report] -------------------- How to tackle the problem? Hedonic estimation, the standard warhorse. ------------------- Data on transactions (picture of NYC data website) --------------------- Data on property characteristics (picture of property characteristics file) --------------------- Data on Ferry Service introduction. When did Ferry service start? How has development advanced? How have prices responded. Natural experiment. (Show pictures of price gradient or something else from the report.) ------------------------ Showed significant increase in prices nearby, attenuating with distance.
- Generally - Should subsidies for East River Ferries be continued? Should the routes be extended? Specifically - What impact has ferry service had on property values in the areas served? -------------------- East River ferries serve two points in Manhattan and 5 in Brooklyn [Show map of ferry service - take directly from the report] -------------------- How to tackle the problem? Hedonic estimation, the standard warhorse. ------------------- Data on transactions (picture of NYC data website) --------------------- Data on property characteristics (picture of property characteristics file) --------------------- Data on Ferry Service introduction. When did Ferry service start? How has development advanced? How have prices responded. Natural experiment. (Show pictures of price gradient or something else from the report.) ------------------------ Showed significant increase in prices nearby, attenuating with distance.
- Generally - Should subsidies for East River Ferries be continued? Should the routes be extended? Specifically - What impact has ferry service had on property values in the areas served? -------------------- East River ferries serve two points in Manhattan and 5 in Brooklyn [Show map of ferry service - take directly from the report] -------------------- How to tackle the problem? Hedonic estimation, the standard warhorse. ------------------- Data on transactions (picture of NYC data website) --------------------- Data on property characteristics (picture of property characteristics file) --------------------- Data on Ferry Service introduction. When did Ferry service start? How has development advanced? How have prices responded. Natural experiment. (Show pictures of price gradient or something else from the report.) ------------------------ Showed significant increase in prices nearby, attenuating with distance.
- Generally - Should subsidies for East River Ferries be continued? Should the routes be extended? Specifically - What impact has ferry service had on property values in the areas served? -------------------- East River ferries serve two points in Manhattan and 5 in Brooklyn [Show map of ferry service - take directly from the report] -------------------- How to tackle the problem? Hedonic estimation, the standard warhorse. ------------------- Data on transactions (picture of NYC data website) --------------------- Data on property characteristics (picture of property characteristics file) --------------------- Data on Ferry Service introduction. When did Ferry service start? How has development advanced? How have prices responded. Natural experiment. (Show pictures of price gradient or something else from the report.) ------------------------ Showed significant increase in prices nearby, attenuating with distance.
- Generally - Should subsidies for East River Ferries be continued? Should the routes be extended? Specifically - What impact has ferry service had on property values in the areas served? -------------------- East River ferries serve two points in Manhattan and 5 in Brooklyn [Show map of ferry service - take directly from the report] -------------------- How to tackle the problem? Hedonic estimation, the standard warhorse. ------------------- Data on transactions (picture of NYC data website) --------------------- Data on property characteristics (picture of property characteristics file) --------------------- Data on Ferry Service introduction. When did Ferry service start? How has development advanced? How have prices responded. Natural experiment. (Show pictures of price gradient or something else from the report.) ------------------------ Showed significant increase in prices nearby, attenuating with distance.
- SEPTA service Similarly, SEPTA, our local transit agency, was starved for funds and needed to demonstrate it value to skeptical state legislatures. We conducted two analyses: -------------------------------- 1 – What if there were not SEPTA (or, really, a lot less SEPTA)? We combined traffic estimates, service cuts,e tc. We treated decrease in service, and resulting increase in travel time, as a tax. When we did this work, we had just completed another job in which we had econometrically estimated a tax model for the City of Philadelphia, and we plugged the implied tax increase into the model to see how employment was affected. We then showed how the region would rearrange itsel, with some jobs moving to the suburbs and others leaving the region entirely. [show tables or other graphics from the report] ----------------------------- 2 – What is the impact of SEPTA service on property values? This is old ground, but we found a few new plots to till by incorporating the quality of service (measured in AM peak service), level of parking (number of spaces) and travel time. The result shows the impact of service on property values [Show bubble map from the report] --------------------------- Act 89 passed last year. We hope our work was helpful, but you can rarely know for sure. -----------------
- SEPTA service Similarly, SEPTA, our local transit agency, was starved for funds and needed to demonstrate it value to skeptical state legislatures. We conducted two analyses: -------------------------------- 1 – What if there were not SEPTA (or, really, a lot less SEPTA)? We combined traffic estimates, service cuts,e tc. We treated decrease in service, and resulting increase in travel time, as a tax. When we did this work, we had just completed another job in which we had econometrically estimated a tax model for the City of Philadelphia, and we plugged the implied tax increase into the model to see how employment was affected. We then showed how the region would rearrange itsel, with some jobs moving to the suburbs and others leaving the region entirely. [show tables or other graphics from the report] ----------------------------- 2 – What is the impact of SEPTA service on property values? This is old ground, but we found a few new plots to till by incorporating the quality of service (measured in AM peak service), level of parking (number of spaces) and travel time. The result shows the impact of service on property values [Show bubble map from the report] --------------------------- Act 89 passed last year. We hope our work was helpful, but you can rarely know for sure. -----------------
- We exist at the intersection of private interests and public policy. In some cases our work is focused purely on public policy, and in others it addresses a private need in front of a public body. Generally the research questions are specific to a situation. Each policy question is different, but honest analysis can help shed light on these questions.
- 2 – What is the impact of SEPTA service on property values? This is old ground, but we found a few new plots to till by incorporating the quality of service (measured in AM peak service), level of parking (number of spaces) and travel time. The result shows the impact of service on property values [Show bubble map from the report] --------------------------- Act 89 passed last year. We hope our work was helpful, but you can rarely know for sure. -----------------
- 2 – What is the impact of SEPTA service on property values? This is old ground, but we found a few new plots to till by incorporating the quality of service (measured in AM peak service), level of parking (number of spaces) and travel time. The result shows the impact of service on property values [Show bubble map from the report] --------------------------- Act 89 passed last year. We hope our work was helpful, but you can rarely know for sure. -----------------
- 2 – What is the impact of SEPTA service on property values? This is old ground, but we found a few new plots to till by incorporating the quality of service (measured in AM peak service), level of parking (number of spaces) and travel time. The result shows the impact of service on property values [Show bubble map from the report] --------------------------- Act 89 passed last year. We hope our work was helpful, but you can rarely know for sure. -----------------
- 2 – What is the impact of SEPTA service on property values? This is old ground, but we found a few new plots to till by incorporating the quality of service (measured in AM peak service), level of parking (number of spaces) and travel time. The result shows the impact of service on property values [Show bubble map from the report] --------------------------- Act 89 passed last year. We hope our work was helpful, but you can rarely know for sure. -----------------
- Tax Forecasts EIT Tax ---------------------- [Show Map of EIT taxes in the region.] Explain dynamics of EIT tax Explain use of LEHD Integrate with Census data for income bands. ------------------- Predict taxes from the EIT [Show picture of able jurisdiction by jurisdiction]