This document provides an economic forecast for 2018. It summarizes recent economic trends and forecasts for the coming year. The national economy is expected to see continued growth in 2018, with real GDP growth of 3.0% predicted. Unemployment is forecast to fall to 3.8% while inflation rises to 2.9%. The Virginia economy is also expected to grow, with real GDP increasing 2.2% in 2018. For Hampton Roads, growth has lagged the national rate in recent years. The forecast predicts stagnant growth will continue in the short-term but prospects are improving for the future.
Arbor Realty's U.S. Economic Overview for 2018 q4 with insights on U.S. employment growth, the consumer price index, average earnings and the homeownership rate.
December 2017 U.S. employment update and outlookJLL
Monthly employment growth surpassed the 200,000-mark for a second consecutive month in November, adding 228,000 jobs and countering hurricane-related pauses earlier in the year. Importantly, job growth is still taking place faster than the labor force is capable of expanding and with the participation rate not increasing, placing pressure on employers in primary, secondary and tertiary markets to expand their headcount.
January 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookJLL
December 2017 saw 148,000 net new jobs added to the national labor market, below consensus figures but still healthy. Unemployment held steady at 4.1 percent and is expected to stay flat or decline in the absence of meaningful improvements in labor force participation or accelerated expansion of the labor force. A combination of widespread positive fundamentals, from consumer spending to business investment, is keeping the outlook for 2018 optimistic.
The document provides an economic and labor market outlook for 2017 and beyond. It finds that while global economic growth is expected to improve slightly to 2.8% in 2017, significant risks remain from political uncertainties. Unemployment is projected to continue declining as growth improves in most major regions. Specifically:
- North American markets have positive outlooks for 2017, while Brazil and Venezuela will struggle with deep recessions. Labor markets in western Europe are improving but face challenges like youth unemployment.
- APAC is expected to outpace other regions, with steady job creation lowering unemployment. However, economic activity may temper in China and India.
- Developing the potential of young workers is important for countries' long-term
Dr. Joseph Von Nessen's presentation from the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors' annual market update in January 2020. The presentation covers market activity in 2019 and offers a forecast for 2020.
The document provides an economic forecast and analysis from Euromonitor International for Q3 2017. Some key points:
- The global economy is forecast to grow 3.5% in both 2017 and 2018, below pre-crisis levels. Emerging markets will drive most global growth.
- The Eurozone economy is outperforming expectations, with growth forecasts raised to 1.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018 due to improved labor markets and sentiment.
- Growth forecasts for several countries were revised, including increases for Mexico, Canada, and decreases for India based on recent economic performance and risks.
- In the US, growth is forecast to remain around 2% annually through 2019
1. The document provides forecasts and indicators on Bangladesh's macroeconomic performance. Forecasts show promising growth in GDP, exports, imports and remittances. However, political turmoil last year means targets may be revised down.
2. Current indicators show inflation, exports and imports declining slightly compared to the previous year, while foreign exchange reserves have grown substantially. Remittances have also decreased as the number of foreign workers falls.
3. Overall the forecasts present a positive outlook, but some indicators like remittances and exports show weaker performance suggesting the need for new export markets and workers overseas.
The document provides an economic overview and projections for Q1 2018. It summarizes the Federal Reserve's projections for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates through 2020. It also reviews recent employment, wage growth, GDP, corporate profits, home prices, and other economic indicators. Overall, the outlook presented is for continued moderate economic expansion in the US.
Arbor Realty's U.S. Economic Overview for 2018 q4 with insights on U.S. employment growth, the consumer price index, average earnings and the homeownership rate.
December 2017 U.S. employment update and outlookJLL
Monthly employment growth surpassed the 200,000-mark for a second consecutive month in November, adding 228,000 jobs and countering hurricane-related pauses earlier in the year. Importantly, job growth is still taking place faster than the labor force is capable of expanding and with the participation rate not increasing, placing pressure on employers in primary, secondary and tertiary markets to expand their headcount.
January 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookJLL
December 2017 saw 148,000 net new jobs added to the national labor market, below consensus figures but still healthy. Unemployment held steady at 4.1 percent and is expected to stay flat or decline in the absence of meaningful improvements in labor force participation or accelerated expansion of the labor force. A combination of widespread positive fundamentals, from consumer spending to business investment, is keeping the outlook for 2018 optimistic.
The document provides an economic and labor market outlook for 2017 and beyond. It finds that while global economic growth is expected to improve slightly to 2.8% in 2017, significant risks remain from political uncertainties. Unemployment is projected to continue declining as growth improves in most major regions. Specifically:
- North American markets have positive outlooks for 2017, while Brazil and Venezuela will struggle with deep recessions. Labor markets in western Europe are improving but face challenges like youth unemployment.
- APAC is expected to outpace other regions, with steady job creation lowering unemployment. However, economic activity may temper in China and India.
- Developing the potential of young workers is important for countries' long-term
Dr. Joseph Von Nessen's presentation from the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors' annual market update in January 2020. The presentation covers market activity in 2019 and offers a forecast for 2020.
The document provides an economic forecast and analysis from Euromonitor International for Q3 2017. Some key points:
- The global economy is forecast to grow 3.5% in both 2017 and 2018, below pre-crisis levels. Emerging markets will drive most global growth.
- The Eurozone economy is outperforming expectations, with growth forecasts raised to 1.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018 due to improved labor markets and sentiment.
- Growth forecasts for several countries were revised, including increases for Mexico, Canada, and decreases for India based on recent economic performance and risks.
- In the US, growth is forecast to remain around 2% annually through 2019
1. The document provides forecasts and indicators on Bangladesh's macroeconomic performance. Forecasts show promising growth in GDP, exports, imports and remittances. However, political turmoil last year means targets may be revised down.
2. Current indicators show inflation, exports and imports declining slightly compared to the previous year, while foreign exchange reserves have grown substantially. Remittances have also decreased as the number of foreign workers falls.
3. Overall the forecasts present a positive outlook, but some indicators like remittances and exports show weaker performance suggesting the need for new export markets and workers overseas.
The document provides an economic overview and projections for Q1 2018. It summarizes the Federal Reserve's projections for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates through 2020. It also reviews recent employment, wage growth, GDP, corporate profits, home prices, and other economic indicators. Overall, the outlook presented is for continued moderate economic expansion in the US.
May’s 223,000 net new jobs represented the 91st consecutive month of growth, further extending an already unprecedented expansionary cycle. Since early 2017, the change in employment compared to the previous cycle has been higher than growth in the civilian labor force, leading to rapid declines in unemployment, which now stands at just 3.8%. With the economy showing no meaningful signs of slowdown and inflation rising under the pressure of sustained output growth, the Federal Reserve is on track to continue its program of tightening over the coming quarters.
1) The document summarizes US employment figures for March 2014, which showed solid job growth of 192,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 6.7%.
2) Gains were broad-based across multiple sectors such as professional services, retail, food services, and construction. Private sector employment surpassed pre-recession levels.
3) The steady job growth in March suggests the US labor market was less negatively impacted by winter weather than expected and continues moving slowly in the right direction of recovery.
- New listings decreased 2.5% while pending sales increased 3.6% in June 2017 compared to the previous year. Inventory levels fell 20.8% and the median sales price rose 9.7% to $215,000. Days on the market decreased 8.2% to 67 days.
The U.S. economy is improving at a modest but positive pace, and business experts expect that trend to continue into next year and beyond. This was a theme echoed by several speakers Oct. 3 at a McCombs event called “The Economy in 2014: The Year of the Rebound?”
See the summary and video: The U.S. economy is improving at a modest but positive pace, and business experts expect that trend to continue into next year and beyond. This was a theme echoed by several speakers Oct. 3 at a McCombs event called “The Economy in 2014: The Year of the Rebound?” - See the summary and video: http://www.texasenterprise.utexas.edu/2013/10/17/finance/2014-year-rebound
Highlights
Jay Hartzell, professor of finance, University of Texas at Austin McCombs School of Business
“There are roughly three ways to get out of the debt problem: You grow your way out, you tax your way out, or you print money,” Hartzell said. “The growth forecast is not very strong for the next few years. It’s not clear we have the political will to tax our way out of it. So that leaves inflation, which many people have concerns about.”
Tyson Tuttle, CEO of Silicon Labs
Tuttle said a surge in investment in connected smart devices is driving a transformation of the tech industry. He expects low-cost, low-power devices to enable home and industrial automation, development of efficient smart grid and mobile technologies, and the advent of “big data.” “All of this is going to be enabled by new types of devices, chips and applications that people haven’t even thought of before."“This is going to create a lot of opportunities for startups, software creators, infrastructure providers, and certainly in our world.”
Daniel Nelson, CEO and founder of Datical
“By the end of 2014, there will be a glut of failed startups — and this is a really good thing, because they’re supposed to fail. The real question is, after those startups fail, what do those founders do?” Nelson said. “The virtuous cycle of entrepreneurism starts with failure. It starts with failing, learning, and trying again — and then failing, learning, and trying again.
Dennis McWilliams, CEO and founder of Apollo Endosurgery
“No other state, even California and New York, can compare to the resources we have in Texas for early-stage investment in new technologies,” McWilliams said. “We really are becoming a global economy of healthcare, and innovation that’s happening here in Texas is moving around the world.”
The Federal Reserve projects real GDP growth of 2.7-3.0% in 2018, with unemployment falling to 3.6-3.7% and inflation rising but remaining near 2%. In Q2 2018, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.1% while unemployment declined slightly. Job growth was strong in professional services and manufacturing. Home prices continue rising nationally at over 6% annually according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.
CEDS 101 or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the CEDSCivic Analytics LLC
This document provides an overview of guidance for developing Comprehensive Economic Development Strategies (CEDS). It emphasizes using new Economic Development Administration guidelines as an opportunity to improve CEDS, focusing on economic resilience. Key components of an effective CEDS are identified, including vision/call to action statements, SMART goals, strategies, and an evaluation framework. Metrics for measuring economic resilience at the regional level are also presented. The document aims to help users strengthen their CEDS and more effectively plan for and measure economic development.
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a quick review of the economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
An overview of economic growth in US during q 3 of 2018. Overview includes data on: Economic Projections of the Federal Reserve Board, Employment Growth, Employment Growth by Industry, Employment Growth by Metropolitan Area, Consumer Price Index, Corporate Profits an Compensation of Employees, etc.
The July 2018 U.S. labor market report showed:
1) The economy added 157,000 new jobs in July, a slower rate than recent months but still positive overall.
2) The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9% as more new entrants found jobs.
3) Wage growth remains around 2.7%, not keeping up with inflation near 3%, indicating continued worker confidence but challenges for employers to expand headcounts.
September 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookJLL
With 201,000 net new jobs, August 2018 rebounded after a slower July 2018, aided by growth in a variety of sectors, most notably a resurgence in transportation, warehousing and wholesale trade.
EUpDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a Quick Review of the Economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
Hiring Trends - Webinar with the Department of Labor and Business Forwardbusinessforward
Dr. Heidi Shierholz, chief economist at the U.S. Department of Labor discusses the latest and trends in hiring and job opening. She talks about the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which was released earlier that day.
In Q3 2014, Vietnam's economy grew 6.2% year-over-year, the strongest growth since Q4 2011. Inflation fell to its lowest level in five years at 3.2% in October, below Vietnam's 7% target for 2014. GDP growth accelerated to 5.6% in the first nine months of 2014 compared to the same period last year, with industry rising 6.4%. The government targets full-year 2014 growth of 5.8% while Focus Economics panelists forecast 5.6% growth.
The document discusses the reliability of macroeconomic forecasts. While forecasts may perform reasonably on average, they often fail to predict significant changes or misses in the economy. Forecasts are most likely to fail at key times when accuracy is needed most. Early government economic data is also often estimated and revised over time as more information becomes available. Therefore, it is important not to rely too heavily on single forecasts or early economic reports, but to consider private data and take forecasts with caution given their inherent unreliability.
• Indian economy grew @5.3% in Jul-Sept 2014 quarter (YoY), lower than the 10-quarter high of 5.7% recorded in the previous quarter, but better than 4.7% in FY14 (Apr'13-Mar'14)
• Slow down due to lower Industrial (@ 2.2%) and Agricultural (@ 3.2%) growth during the quarter. But services sector grew @ 7.1%
• Private spending grew at 5.8%; Fixed Capital formation was flat; Government expenditure expanded @ 10.1%
• Economy is expected to grow @ 5.5% in FY15 and 6.5% in FY16 (FY:Apr-Mar)
• New government's policy decisions key to growth revival; Central bank is expected to cut policy rates by early CY2015
The presentation from Dr. Joseph Von Nessen given at the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors' annual Residential Market Update. This presentation reviews residential real estate activity in the Charleston, SC MSA in 2016 and offers a look forward to 2017.
ICICI Prudential AMC - Market Outlook - October 2017iciciprumf
- Indian equity markets declined in September due to geopolitical tensions, higher crude prices, and weaker than expected GDP growth.
- Inflation rose in August driven by increases in food and fuel prices. The rupee also fell against the US dollar.
- Foreign institutional investors continued selling Indian equities while domestic mutual funds purchased shares.
- The document recommends dynamic asset allocation funds to benefit from market cycles and mentions specific pure equity and thematic funds for long-term investment.
Your business is impacted daily by internal and external challenges. From the state of the economy, to new regulations, to the driver shortage and more, understanding how each uniquely impacts your operations can mean the difference between failure and success. This general session will feature three of the industry’s favorite data analysts: ATA’s Chief Economist Bob Costello, ATRI President Rebecca Brewster, and AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson, who will walk you through the numbers associated with trucking and construction’s top issues so you can better understand how to drive your business to success.
Speakers: Rebecca Brewster, President, American Transportation Research Institute Bob Costello, Chief Economist, American Trucking Associations Ken Simonson, Chief Economist, Associated General Contractors
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
Dr. Lawrence Yun's Economic Update at the Charleston Realtors Commercial Market Forecast event on November 15, 2018: Economic Trends and Outlook in a Rising Interest Rate Environment.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 128,000 jobs in October. Job growth has averaged 167,000 per month thus far in 2019, compared with an average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018. Employment declined in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing due to strike activity. Federal government employment was also down, reflecting a drop in the number of temporary jobs for the 2020 Census.
May’s 223,000 net new jobs represented the 91st consecutive month of growth, further extending an already unprecedented expansionary cycle. Since early 2017, the change in employment compared to the previous cycle has been higher than growth in the civilian labor force, leading to rapid declines in unemployment, which now stands at just 3.8%. With the economy showing no meaningful signs of slowdown and inflation rising under the pressure of sustained output growth, the Federal Reserve is on track to continue its program of tightening over the coming quarters.
1) The document summarizes US employment figures for March 2014, which showed solid job growth of 192,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 6.7%.
2) Gains were broad-based across multiple sectors such as professional services, retail, food services, and construction. Private sector employment surpassed pre-recession levels.
3) The steady job growth in March suggests the US labor market was less negatively impacted by winter weather than expected and continues moving slowly in the right direction of recovery.
- New listings decreased 2.5% while pending sales increased 3.6% in June 2017 compared to the previous year. Inventory levels fell 20.8% and the median sales price rose 9.7% to $215,000. Days on the market decreased 8.2% to 67 days.
The U.S. economy is improving at a modest but positive pace, and business experts expect that trend to continue into next year and beyond. This was a theme echoed by several speakers Oct. 3 at a McCombs event called “The Economy in 2014: The Year of the Rebound?”
See the summary and video: The U.S. economy is improving at a modest but positive pace, and business experts expect that trend to continue into next year and beyond. This was a theme echoed by several speakers Oct. 3 at a McCombs event called “The Economy in 2014: The Year of the Rebound?” - See the summary and video: http://www.texasenterprise.utexas.edu/2013/10/17/finance/2014-year-rebound
Highlights
Jay Hartzell, professor of finance, University of Texas at Austin McCombs School of Business
“There are roughly three ways to get out of the debt problem: You grow your way out, you tax your way out, or you print money,” Hartzell said. “The growth forecast is not very strong for the next few years. It’s not clear we have the political will to tax our way out of it. So that leaves inflation, which many people have concerns about.”
Tyson Tuttle, CEO of Silicon Labs
Tuttle said a surge in investment in connected smart devices is driving a transformation of the tech industry. He expects low-cost, low-power devices to enable home and industrial automation, development of efficient smart grid and mobile technologies, and the advent of “big data.” “All of this is going to be enabled by new types of devices, chips and applications that people haven’t even thought of before."“This is going to create a lot of opportunities for startups, software creators, infrastructure providers, and certainly in our world.”
Daniel Nelson, CEO and founder of Datical
“By the end of 2014, there will be a glut of failed startups — and this is a really good thing, because they’re supposed to fail. The real question is, after those startups fail, what do those founders do?” Nelson said. “The virtuous cycle of entrepreneurism starts with failure. It starts with failing, learning, and trying again — and then failing, learning, and trying again.
Dennis McWilliams, CEO and founder of Apollo Endosurgery
“No other state, even California and New York, can compare to the resources we have in Texas for early-stage investment in new technologies,” McWilliams said. “We really are becoming a global economy of healthcare, and innovation that’s happening here in Texas is moving around the world.”
The Federal Reserve projects real GDP growth of 2.7-3.0% in 2018, with unemployment falling to 3.6-3.7% and inflation rising but remaining near 2%. In Q2 2018, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.1% while unemployment declined slightly. Job growth was strong in professional services and manufacturing. Home prices continue rising nationally at over 6% annually according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.
CEDS 101 or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the CEDSCivic Analytics LLC
This document provides an overview of guidance for developing Comprehensive Economic Development Strategies (CEDS). It emphasizes using new Economic Development Administration guidelines as an opportunity to improve CEDS, focusing on economic resilience. Key components of an effective CEDS are identified, including vision/call to action statements, SMART goals, strategies, and an evaluation framework. Metrics for measuring economic resilience at the regional level are also presented. The document aims to help users strengthen their CEDS and more effectively plan for and measure economic development.
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a quick review of the economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
An overview of economic growth in US during q 3 of 2018. Overview includes data on: Economic Projections of the Federal Reserve Board, Employment Growth, Employment Growth by Industry, Employment Growth by Metropolitan Area, Consumer Price Index, Corporate Profits an Compensation of Employees, etc.
The July 2018 U.S. labor market report showed:
1) The economy added 157,000 new jobs in July, a slower rate than recent months but still positive overall.
2) The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9% as more new entrants found jobs.
3) Wage growth remains around 2.7%, not keeping up with inflation near 3%, indicating continued worker confidence but challenges for employers to expand headcounts.
September 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookJLL
With 201,000 net new jobs, August 2018 rebounded after a slower July 2018, aided by growth in a variety of sectors, most notably a resurgence in transportation, warehousing and wholesale trade.
EUpDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a Quick Review of the Economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
Hiring Trends - Webinar with the Department of Labor and Business Forwardbusinessforward
Dr. Heidi Shierholz, chief economist at the U.S. Department of Labor discusses the latest and trends in hiring and job opening. She talks about the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which was released earlier that day.
In Q3 2014, Vietnam's economy grew 6.2% year-over-year, the strongest growth since Q4 2011. Inflation fell to its lowest level in five years at 3.2% in October, below Vietnam's 7% target for 2014. GDP growth accelerated to 5.6% in the first nine months of 2014 compared to the same period last year, with industry rising 6.4%. The government targets full-year 2014 growth of 5.8% while Focus Economics panelists forecast 5.6% growth.
The document discusses the reliability of macroeconomic forecasts. While forecasts may perform reasonably on average, they often fail to predict significant changes or misses in the economy. Forecasts are most likely to fail at key times when accuracy is needed most. Early government economic data is also often estimated and revised over time as more information becomes available. Therefore, it is important not to rely too heavily on single forecasts or early economic reports, but to consider private data and take forecasts with caution given their inherent unreliability.
• Indian economy grew @5.3% in Jul-Sept 2014 quarter (YoY), lower than the 10-quarter high of 5.7% recorded in the previous quarter, but better than 4.7% in FY14 (Apr'13-Mar'14)
• Slow down due to lower Industrial (@ 2.2%) and Agricultural (@ 3.2%) growth during the quarter. But services sector grew @ 7.1%
• Private spending grew at 5.8%; Fixed Capital formation was flat; Government expenditure expanded @ 10.1%
• Economy is expected to grow @ 5.5% in FY15 and 6.5% in FY16 (FY:Apr-Mar)
• New government's policy decisions key to growth revival; Central bank is expected to cut policy rates by early CY2015
The presentation from Dr. Joseph Von Nessen given at the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors' annual Residential Market Update. This presentation reviews residential real estate activity in the Charleston, SC MSA in 2016 and offers a look forward to 2017.
ICICI Prudential AMC - Market Outlook - October 2017iciciprumf
- Indian equity markets declined in September due to geopolitical tensions, higher crude prices, and weaker than expected GDP growth.
- Inflation rose in August driven by increases in food and fuel prices. The rupee also fell against the US dollar.
- Foreign institutional investors continued selling Indian equities while domestic mutual funds purchased shares.
- The document recommends dynamic asset allocation funds to benefit from market cycles and mentions specific pure equity and thematic funds for long-term investment.
Your business is impacted daily by internal and external challenges. From the state of the economy, to new regulations, to the driver shortage and more, understanding how each uniquely impacts your operations can mean the difference between failure and success. This general session will feature three of the industry’s favorite data analysts: ATA’s Chief Economist Bob Costello, ATRI President Rebecca Brewster, and AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson, who will walk you through the numbers associated with trucking and construction’s top issues so you can better understand how to drive your business to success.
Speakers: Rebecca Brewster, President, American Transportation Research Institute Bob Costello, Chief Economist, American Trucking Associations Ken Simonson, Chief Economist, Associated General Contractors
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
Dr. Lawrence Yun's Economic Update at the Charleston Realtors Commercial Market Forecast event on November 15, 2018: Economic Trends and Outlook in a Rising Interest Rate Environment.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 128,000 jobs in October. Job growth has averaged 167,000 per month thus far in 2019, compared with an average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018. Employment declined in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing due to strike activity. Federal government employment was also down, reflecting a drop in the number of temporary jobs for the 2020 Census.
Is Your Business Evolution Ready? Preparing Your Business for Tomorrow’s EconomyCitrin Cooperman
Learn all about the economic outlook from Sage Policy Group, Inc.'s presentation for Citrin Cooperman's October 17 event, Economic Summit: Is Your Business Evolution Ready? Preparing Your Business for Tomorrow’s Economy.
The document summarizes the current state of the US economy and monetary policy outlook. It notes that the economy is expected to accelerate in 2017, with the labor market strengthening and inflation approaching the Fed's 2% target. While risks are balanced, potential downside risks include trade wars, a stronger dollar, rising interest rates, and weak global growth. Monetary policy remains accommodative, and further rate increases will be data-dependent.
The U.S. labor market added 209,000 net new jobs in in July, marking the second consecutive month of gains of more than 200,000 after a series of wobbly months. Continued growth is placing further downward pressure on unemployment, now at its cyclical low of 4.3 percent.
Patrick jankowski- 2019 Economic Outlook for Southeast TexasCharlie Foxworth
Southeast Texas Economic Development Foundation slides for the economic outlook for Southeast Texas in 2019. All systems are go for a good year. The only thing that can hold us back is our belief that we are "overdue" for a recession. Stay positive.
Did you know total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March 2020, measuring the effects of COVID-19 and efforts to contain it? Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.
Lee McPheters, director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, shares the 2019 outlook for Arizona at the 55th Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon on Nov. 28, 2018.
May saw the addition of only 138,000 net new jobs, while gains in previous months saw downward revisions. Minimal improvement in retail trade combined with contractions in government and information kept increases down, although professional services, education, health and leisure remained stable.
Did you know the U.S. Census Bureau reported that the homeownership rate reached 64.6% at the end of 2018, the highest level since the third quarter of 2014? Increasing millennial demand was one of the biggest trends influencing the housing market. We complied an overview of US economic trends for Q1 2019.
Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Chief Economist, Presentation at SJREIsjreiassociation
This document provides an economic analysis and overview from Doug Duncan, Chief Economist at Fannie Mae. It summarizes recent economic data on GDP growth, consumer spending, the job market, housing trends, and the Federal Reserve's plans to wind down asset purchases. Overall, it finds the economic recovery is continuing but some measures like housing remain disappointing and long-term unemployment is a challenge.
February 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookJLL
January 2018 saw 200,000 net new jobs created, with unemployment once again stable at 4.1 percent. Job growth continues in line with expansion of the broader labor force, even as slack diminishes.
National Employment Situation: January 2018DavidDominy1
The document summarizes key labor market statistics from January 2018:
- The U.S. labor market added 200,000 net new jobs in January with the unemployment rate stable at 4.1%.
- Shortages of skilled talent are constraining company expansion nationally as bachelor's degree unemployment is very low at 2.1%.
- Continued strong economic growth, inflation above 2%, and a tight labor market make further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in 2018 likely.
Robert Triest, vice president and director of the New England Public Policy Center, compares the economies of the New England states, reporting that Massachusetts had the region’s most robust increase in state revenue and healthiest employment growth since the Great Recession.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for various regions including globally, the US, Canada, and Ontario. It summarizes recent economic growth trends, risks, currency movements, housing, labor, and other indicators. Growth is expected to remain modest globally and many regions face challenges from slowing emerging markets, currency appreciation, weak commodity prices, and lack of pent-up consumer demand. [END SUMMARY]
The nominal GDP of Latin America and the Caribbean is USD 5.9 trillion, accounting for 8% of the global economy. The region experienced a GDP contraction of 0.7% in 2016. The GNI per capita is USD 8,252. Key countries in the region include Brazil, with a GDP of USD 2.2 trillion in 2016, and Argentina, with GDP of USD 445 billion in 2016. Both countries saw negative GDP growth in 2016.
The nominal GDP of Latin America and the Caribbean is USD 5.9 trillion, accounting for 8% of the global economy. The region experienced a GDP contraction of 0.7% in 2016. The GNI per capita is USD 8,252. Key countries in the region include Brazil, with a GDP of USD 2.2 trillion in 2016, and Argentina, with GDP of USD 445 billion in 2016. Both countries saw negative GDP growth in 2016.
Odeta kushi presentation at #NEXTWINTER20Molly Dowdy
Odeta Kushi, everyone's favorite economist and the Deputy Chief Economist for First American spoke at #NEXTWINTER20 on the state of the housing economy. Here's the slide deck for your enjoyment!
2020 Economic Review Final: An Annual Review of New Jersey's EconomyNicoleMSandelier
2020 was a year unlike any other we’ve experienced during our lifetime. The novel coronavirus pandemic caused havoc on New Jersey’s public health and economy. The pandemic caused government-mandated, nonessential business closures and stay-at-home orders that were in effect from mid-March to mid-June 2020 in the Garden State with many businesses continuing to operate at restricted capacity through year end.
➢ This resulted in record high unemployment rates and record contraction in GDP.
➢ Small businesses were devastated and many were forced to shut their doors, either temporarily or permanently.
➢ Early data indicates that the pandemic had a disproportional impact on minority workers and workers of color.
➢ In total, over 1.9 million people filed unemployment claims and received more than $20 billion in unemployment benefits.
➢ Personal income increased despite record high unemployment, due to state unemployment benefits, extended benefits, and federal stimulus monies.
The goal of this research is to provide readers with a detailed review of key statistics on New Jersey’s economic activity, otherwise known as economic indicators. These indicators help to judge the overall health of an economy. Many sources have yet to report 2020 data, including the U.S. Census Bureau. As such, this is a working document that will be modified to include statistics relating to race, gender and households when updated data becomes available.
Similar to 2018 Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy - (31 Jan 18) (20)
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
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3. The forecasts and commentary do
not constitute an official viewpoint
of Old Dominion University, its
President, John R. Broderick, the
Board of Visitors, the Strome
College of Business, or the
generous donors who support the
activities of the Dragas Center for
Economic Analysis and Policy and
the Economic Forecasting Project.
4. 2018 National and Virginia
Economic Forecast
Accelerating Growth,
Increasing Risk
Professor Robert McNab
January 31, 2018
5. Current and Historical Expansions
5
Expansion Duration
In months
Annual
Employment
Growth
Annual
Real GDP Growth
October 1949 – July 1953 45 4.35% 6.14%
May 1954 – August 1957 39 2.51% 3.67%
April 1958 – April 1960 24 3.58% 4.86%
February 1961 – December 1969 106 3.23% 4.68%
November 1970 – November 1973 36 3.38% 4.60%
March 1975 – January 1980 58 3.52% 4.01%
December 1982 – July 1990 91 2.81% 3.81%
March 1991 – March 2001 120 2.01% 3.45%
November 2001 – December 2007 73 0.88% 2.66%
June 2009 – Present* 103 1.38% 2.14%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP in chained 2009 dollars.
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate. Annual Real GDP CAGR derived from quarterly series. Annual employment CAGR derived from monthly series. Current expansion data ends in 2017 Q3. Average
annual Real GDP CAGR of previous expansions = 4.21% while average annual employment CAGR from previous expansions = 2.92%
6. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP measured in chained 2009 dollars. U.S. Q4 and VA Q3 are advance estimates. VA Q4 is our forecast.
Quarterly numbers are annualized rates of growth
3.1% 3.2%
2.6%
1.5%
2.3%
1.6%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product
United States and Virginia, 2010 - 2017 Q4
United States Real GDP Virginia Real GDP
6
9. 9Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak employment for the United States was January 2008. Peak employment for Virginia was April 2008.
Seasonally adjusted data through December 2017. December 2017 data are preliminary. Data measure the number of reported jobs by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program.
6.47%
4.69%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1
5
9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
101
105
109
113
117
Months Since Pre-Recession Peak
Monthly Job Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Employment
Virginia and the United States, 2008-2017
United States Virginia
10. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates. December 2017 data are preliminary.
10
4.6%
10.0%
4.1%
3.0%
7.4%
3.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Headline Unemployment Rate (U3)
Virginia and United States, January 2007 - December 2017
United States Virginia
11. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. U-6 measures total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic
reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers. State level data based on 4-quarter moving average. Annual averages are presented.
11
10.1%
8.2%
16.7%
8.5%
6.8%
6.0%
12.9%
7.9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Alternative Measure of the Unemployment Rate (U6)
Virginia and the United States, 2003-2017
United States Virginia
12. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. December 2017 data are preliminary.
3,770
5,461
7,460
9,351
10,911
4,782
7,991
6,061
368
19,560
1,549
11,411
18,263
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Dec
2016
Jan
2017
Feb
2017
Mar
2017
Apr
2017
May
2017
Jun
2017
Jul
2017
Aug
2017
Sep
2017
Oct
2017
Nov
2017
Dec
2017
Individuals Month-to-Month Change in Labor Force
Virginia, December 2016 to December 2017
12
13. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. December 2017 data are preliminary.
4,402
8,280
13,35813,836
10,304
4,697
8,438
5,331
230
22,158
475
12,832
16,746-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Dec
2016
Jan
2017
Feb
2017
Mar
2017
Apr
2017
May
2017
Jun
2017
Jul
2017
Aug
2017
Sep
2017
Oct
2017
Nov
2017
Dec
2017
Jobs Month-to-Month Change in Employment
Virginia, December 2016 to December 2017
13
14. 14
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data.
63.7%
62.7%
77.9%
69.0%
51.5%
57.0%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate
United States, January 1980 – December 2017
Overall Men Women
15. 15
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data.
71.5%
69.7%
65.3%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
1976
1977
1978
1979
1981
1982
1983
1984
1986
1987
1988
1989
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
Labor Force Participation Rate
Virginia, January 1976 to December 2017
16. 16
Source: Office of Management and Budget and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Federal deficits in nominal dollars.
$236
$128
$158
$378 $413
$318
$248
$161
$459
$1,413
$1,294
$1,300
$1,087
$680
$485 $438
$585
$666
-$1,600
-$1,400
-$1,200
-$1,000
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Federal Deficit in Billions of Dollars
17. 17
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Corporate Profits After Tax Without Inventory Adjustment. 2017 is through the 3rd quarter.
9.53%
6.52%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Corporate Profits as Percent of GDP
United States, 1950-2017*
19. 19
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP measured in chained 2009 dollars. 2017 US is an advance estimate. 2017 VA and 2018 are our forecasts.
2.2%
1.7%
2.6%
2.9%
1.5%
2.3%
3.0%
0.6%
0.0%
0.2%
2.2%
0.5%
1.7%
2.2%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018f
Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product
Virginia and the United States, 2012-2018
United States Real GDP Virginia Real GDP
20. 20
2017 Forecast 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product 2.2% 2.3% 3.0%
Civilian Job Growth 1.5% 1.2% 1.1%
Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.1% 3.8%
Consumer Price Index 2.8% 2.2% 2.9%
Core Consumer Price Index 2.4% 1.7% 2.2%
3-month Treasury Bill 1.3% 1.4% 2.0%
10-year Treasury Bill 3.2% 2.4% 3.2%
30-year Treasury Bill -- 2.8% 3.6%
30-year Conventional Mortgage 4.3% 4.0% 5.0%
Federal Deficit --- -$655 Billion -$750 Billion
Virginia Real GDP* 1.5% 1.7% 2.2%
Virginia Employment Growth --- 1.4% 1.3%
Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of 2017 where appropriate. 2017 VA GDP is an estimate based on the first 3 quarters. Data are rounded to nearest tenth.
22. 1.62%
2.17%
1.49%
2.25%2.12%
-0.04% -1.09%
0.80%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2001 to 2009 2009 to 2015 2015 to 2016 2016 to 2017e
Annual Growth Rate in Real GDP
Hampton Roads and the United States
United States Hampton Roads
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Data on GDP incorporates latest BEA revisions in September
2017. US GDP is advance estimate while Hampton Roads GDP is our estimates.
22
23. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak employment for the United States was January 2008, Virginia was April 2008, and Hampton Roads was July 2007.
Seasonally adjusted data through December 2017 (US and VA) and November 2017 (HR). Last month of data are preliminary. Data measure number of reported jobs.
6.47%
4.69%
-2.25%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1
5
9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
101
105
109
113
117
121
Months Since Pre-Recession Peak
Monthly Job Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Employment
Hampton Roads, Virginia and United States, 2008-2017
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
26. Source: U.S. Department of Defense and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Includes Federal Civilian and Military Personnel and Procurement.
Data for 2016 are estimates and data for 2017 are forecasts.
10.0
19.5 19.2 19.6
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
BillionsofDollarsEstimated Direct DoD Spending
Hampton Roads, 2000 to 2017
26
27. Estimated Average Compensation
Hampton Roads, Selected Categories
27
2015 2016
Change in
Compensation
Military $91,561 $92,189 0.69%
Federal Civilian Govt.
Employees
$107,322 $109,624 2.15%
State and Local Govt.
Employees
$62,602 $64,164 2.49%
Private Nonfarm $42,189 $41,751 -1.04%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Compensation includes wages, salaries, and benefits.
29. 706.6
775.5
737.1
771.8 769.4
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
ThousandsofJobs Average Annual Civilian Jobs
Hampton Roads, 1999-2017
Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March 2018
30. Source: Virginia Employment Commission: Covered Employment and Wages by Private Ownership and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
-11
-7
-6
-5
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
1
1
4
19
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Construction
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Information
Real Estate
Admin and Support
Finance and Insurance
Utilities
Management of Companies
Professional and Scientific
Transportation and Warehousing
Accomodation and Food
Health Care and Social Assistance
Change in Private Sector Employment
Selected Industries in Hampton Roads, 2007 Q1 to 2017 Q1
33. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Seasonally adjusted data and the Old Dominion University Forecasting Project. Preliminary data: US and VA (Dec 17) and HR (Nov 17). Hampton Roads data only through November 2017.
4.1%
3.7%
4.3%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Headline Unemployment Rate (U3)
Hampton Roads, Virginia, and United States
January 2007-December 2017*
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
36. 14,703
23,492
2,265
3,228
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Existing and New Construction Home Sales
Hampton Roads, 2010-2017
Existing Homes New Construction
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. Figures reported here
represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
37. 15.8%
49.0%
29.0%
4.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Distribution of New Construction Home Sales by Financing Type
Hampton Roads, 2000-2017
FHA VA Conventional Cash
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed.
38. $116,900
$223,000
$180,000
$219,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Median Sales Price of Existing Homes
Hampton Roads, 2002-2017
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. 2002-2007 = 91% increase. 2011-2017 is a 22% increase.
39. Median Sale Price of Existing Residential Homes for Selected
Cities in Hampton Roads: 2007 and 2017
39Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed.
* Williamsburg represents Williamsburg, James City County, York County and Gloucester County. ** Median price in Suffolk peaked in 2006 at $263,950
City
Median Price
2007
Median Price
2017
% change
Chesapeake $250,100 $245,000 -2.0%
Norfolk $195,000 $183,500 -5.9%
Portsmouth $165,500 $140,000 -15.4%
Suffolk** $257,500 $240,000 -6.8%
Virginia Beach $245,000 $247,500 +1.2%
Hampton $180,000 $155,000 -13.9%
Newport News $199,250 $170,000 -14.7%
Williamsburg* $284,450 $283,000 -0.5%
Hampton Roads $223,000 $219,000 -1.8%
44. 0.16%
4.15%
14.43%
3.85%
5.81%
4.80%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Williamsburg Market
Virginia Beach
Norfolk/Portsmouth
Newport News/Hampton
Chesapeake/Suffolk
Hampton Roads
Growth in Hotel Revenue
Hampton Roads, 2016 to 2017
Source: STR Trend Report, January 17, 2018, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Williamsburg Market includes James City County, York County, and City of Williamsburg.
45. Source: Aidna (2018) market data adjusted by Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Excludes shared rooms
$0.42
$2.16
$5.88
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MillionsofDollars Monthly Airbnb Revenue in Hampton Roads
2015-2017
2015 2016 2017
47. 17.83
18.84
21.97
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
MillionsofTons General Cargo Tonnage
Port of Virginia, 2000-2017
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
51. 51
2017 Forecast 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast
Hampton Roads
Real Gross Domestic Product
Initial Forecast
1.4% -- --
Hampton Roads
Real Gross Domestic Product
Mid-year revision
0.8% -- 1.2%
Civilian Job Growth 0.5% -0.3% 0.5%
Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 3.9%
Taxable Sales 2.6% 3.0% 3.0%
Hotel Revenue 4.4% 4.8% 3.9%
General Cargo Tonnage 2.7% 5.3% 2.8%
One Unit Housing Permit Value 2.6% 8.5% 2.4%
Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of 2017 where appropriate.
52.
53. ▪ To receive updates from the Dragas Center for Economic
Analysis and Policy, please leave your card with us.
▪ You may also text CEAPODU to 66866 to join our email list
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▪ You will not only receive access to our reports and
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▪ We put the economy into context so that you can better
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53
54. 54
Presentation slides will be available at:
www.ceapodu.com
Professor Vinod Agarwal (vagarwal@odu.edu)
Professor Robert McNab (rmcnab@odu.edu)
Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
Strome College of Business
Old Dominion University
Questions?