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What is telecom?

The document provides an extensive overview of telecommunications as essential infrastructure, emphasizing its significant economic impact, especially in developing nations. It discusses advancements in processing power, the evolving nature of data storage and transmission technologies, and highlights emerging technologies like silicon photonics and molecular memory. Additionally, it addresses the challenges posed by Moore's Law on the semiconductor industry and the future of telecom infrastructure.

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1 What is Telecom? Understanding the Zettacosm
The Telecom Infrastructure • Telecommunications is the most critical infrastructure of the 21st century. • Investment in telecom is more productive than investment in other kinds of infrastructure. • World Bank research* shows a large productivity benefit to investment in telecom—larger than investments in roads, electricity or even education! *Canning, David. Infrastructure’s Contribution to Aggregate Output, The World Bank Policy Research Working Papers Series # 2246, 30 Nov 1999. http://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/2246.html 2
The Telecom Infrastructure • And of course, the impact is exceptionally noticeable in developing nations. • More recent research* based on the spread of mobile phones finds telecommunication’s impact on economic growth is twice as large in developing nations as in developed nations. *Waverman, Leonard; Meschi, Meloria and Fuss, Melvyn. The Impact of Telecoms on Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Vodafone Policy Paper Series, 2, March 2005, pp. 10-23. 3
The Telecom Economy • According to the new industry market study, telecommunications services revenue worldwide will grow from $2.1 trillion in 2014 to $2.4 trillion in 2019 at a combined average growth rate of 2.1 percent. 4
The Fundamentals of Telecoms 5
Measurements of the Digital World • Processors – Processing power is measured in number of transistors and operations per second – The size of the features (the elements that make up the structures on a chip) is today measured in nanometers. • Digital storage – Measured in Bytes (B) • 1 bit = a single “1” or “0” • 1 Byte = 8 bits = single character (letter “A”, number “2”, etc) • Digital transmission rate – Measured in bits per second (bps) 6
7 Key Measurements of the Digital Universe • Kilo 103 Thousand 1,000 • Mega 106 Million 1,000 Kilo • Giga 109 Billion 1,000 Mega • Tera 1012 Trillion 1,000 Giga • Peta 1015 Million Billion 1,000 Tera • Exa 1018 Billion Billion 1,000 Peta • Zetta 1021 Billion Trillion 1,000 Exa • Yotta 1024 Trillion Trillion 1,000 Zetta 7
How Much Data Is That?* • 2KB = one typewritten page • 100KB = a small, low-resolution image • 1MB = one digital chest x-ray, or one minute of high-fidelity sound • 5 MB = the complete works of Shakespeare, or 30 seconds of broadcast quality video • 50 MB = one digital mammogram • 100 MB = two encyclopedia volumes, or 3 feet of books on a shelf • 500 MB = one CD-ROM 8
How Much Data Is That?* • 1 GB = one pickup truck full of books, or symphony in high-fidelity sound, or one broadcast movie • 1 TB = all the X-ray films in a large technological hospital, or 50,000 trees made into paper and printed, or daily rate of EOS (Earth Orbiting System) data (as of 1998) • 20 TB = Printed collection of the U. S. Library of Congress (LOC) 9
10 How Much Data Is That?* • 2PB = all U. S. academic research libraries • 200PB = all printed material • 1EB = one billion pickup trucks full of books, or one trillion 400 page books • 5EB = 37,000 Libraries of Congress, or about 30 feet of books for each of the 6.3 billion people on earth • 161EB = 12 stacks of books reaching from the earth to the sun • 1ZB = 250 million DVDs Source: Source of examples includes “James S. Huggins' Refrigerator Door” at http://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm and Seattle Discover Institute at http://www.discovery.org/ 10
The Power of the Processor • The current environment is generally defined by Moore’s Law, realizing a doubling of processing power every 18 months • Moore’s Law is not infinite – experts now say silicon chips have no more than four years of further miniaturization left • What solutions are being considered? – Silicon photonics – Carbon nanotubes – Superconductors, or quantum computing – Graphene – DNA computing 11
The Power of the Processor • The original transistor built by Bell Labs in 1947 could be held in your hand, while hundreds of Intel’s new 45nm transistors can fit on the surface of a single red blood cell. – Transistors are the tiny switches that process the ones and zeroes that make up our digital world. • This very success is bringing chipmakers to the brink of a new, steep obstacle to further gains in performance. – The problem lies in the tiny metal wires that weave the transistors into integrated circuits. 12
Transistors Then And Today 13 Bell Labs Transistor - 1947 Intel Microchip – 2008 800 Million transistors
The Power of the Processor • The Intel 130-nm Pentium 4 processor has – 55 million transistors and – uses roughly 4.8 km of interconnects to support each square centimeter of its circuitry • The Intel 90-nm processor has – 110 million transistors and 6.9 km of interconnects per square centimeter 14 • A 65-nm processor has - 1 billion transistors and 11 km of interconnects per square centimeter, for a total Interconnect length of 34.6k m!
The Awful Truth About Moore’s Law • Intel’s new generation processors are 45nm and 32nm. – Intel's 45nm technology packs more than 400 million transistors for dual-core processors and more than 800 million for quad- core into the same silicon space. – You could fit more than 2,000 45nm transistor gates, laid side by side, across the width of a human hair. – More than 2 million 45nm transistors could fit on a period at the end of a sentence (estimated to be 1/10 square millimeter in area). – If a house shrunk at the same pace transistors have, you would not be able to see a house without a microscope. To see the 45nm transistor, you need a very advanced microscope. 15
The Awful Truth About Moore’s Law • 45-nm technology is used in the Intel® Core™2 processor family code named "Penryn,“. – The price of a transistor in Penryn processors is about 1 millionth the average price of a transistor in 1968. – If car prices had fallen at the same rate, a new car today would cost about 1 cent. • Next, Intel's 32nm chips and next-generation “Nehalem” microprocessor architecture in 2009. • Houses more than 1.9 billion transistors. • 4 million 32nm transistors would fit on a period at the end of a sentence. (1/10 square millimeter in area) • 22nm chips by 2011, followed by 17nm . 1616
The Awful Truth About Moore’s Law Informative Videos • What is Moore’s Law – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLSMn0cNWAw • Moore’s Law No More (with Gordon Moore) – http://news.cnet.com/1606-2_3-29244.html • Moore’s Law Got Me – http://www.metacafe.com/watch/1151291/moores_law_got_ me/ • Moore’s Law Ends in 2020 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oLsMs5_19Y • The Dark Secret Of Hendrik Schon: Moore's law – http://science.discovery.com/videos/the-dark-secret-of- hendrik-schon-moores-law.html 17
The Awful Truth About Moore’s Law • Each new generation of chips only makes the situation worse. • The narrower the wire, the longer it takes a signal to propagate along it. • Today’s most advanced ICs, switch up to 10 billion times a second, and their metal interconnects can barely keep up. • The good news is that the industry is working on solutions • Two main approaches are evolving – New low-K and Hi-K dielectrics – Optical connections 18
Low-K Dielectrics • Low-k dielectrics changes the propagation characteristics of the tiny on-chip transmission lines, or metal interconnects. • Low-k reduces the interconnect capacitance and wiring delay by changing the material that insulates it from the surrounding silicon chip as a well as from neighboring wire. • The application for low-K is in the metal interconnects connecting all the transistors 19
Low-K Dielectrics • The bad news is that the low-k films are extremely difficult to integrate into the manufacturing – they are soft, weak, and adhere poorly to both the silicon and the metal wire. They also crack and delaminate easily. • Today’s 65-nm and the next generation of 45-nm chips require even lower-k materials. – The addition of ultra-low-k interconnect provides a 15 per cent reduction in wiring-related delay as compared to conventional low-k dielectrics. 20
Hi-K Dielectrics • As elements in the chip were being reduced to 45 nanometers, the gate dielectric began to lose its insulating (dielectric) quality and exhibited too much leakage. • The new, higher-K dielectrics introduce a more power-saving integrated circuit, allowing even cooler and faster processors at 45 nm and beyond, as well as more circuits per wafer area. 21
High-K Dielectrics • Higher-K dielectrics are combined with metal gates for increased performance gains. • The new Hi-K dielectrics are used as the transistor gate dielectric material. • Intel is heralding this technological breakthrough as the “Biggest Change to Computer Chips In 40 Years!” – http://www.intel.com/technology/architecture-silicon/45nm- core2/demo/index.htm?iid=tech_arch_45nm+body_demo 22
Silicon Photonics • The more significant development comes from Intel’s successful demonstration of the first continuous all-silicon laser. – http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/sp/download/Analyst_028.htm • Silicon photonics have the potential to greatly extend the lifetime of Moore’s Law. – Optical connections can carry thousands of times more data per second than copper wires can. • Unfortunately, existing optical components are far too expensive for use in individual computers or even local networks. 2323
Silicon Photonics 24IBM - Silicon Integrated Nanophotonics Intel Hybrid Silicon Laser
Other Alternatives To Extend Moore’s Law • Carbon nanotubes – Tubes of pure carbon, about the width of a typical protein molecule, also happen to conduct electricity, and could be used as tiny molecular-scale wires for making electronic circuitry. Unfortunately, they also cost about $500 a gram. • Superconductors, or materials that conduct electricity with zero electrical resistance. – New ways to harness the power of quantum qubits to boost computing power, but there are very practical difficulties in building a quantum computer • Graphene - a new material exactly one-atom thick has been used to create a one nanometer transistor. 25
Moore’s Law and Telecommunications • On the positive side, thanks to Moore’s Law, network endpoints today are small, powerful, inexpensive devices. • With such power in the endpoints, the need to embed the functions of a network in the network’s core shrink. • In addition, smart end devices can set up and manage calls far better than a centralized network. – In fact, when voice is implemented in end devices, the ability to mix it into other kinds of interactions emerges • online game play, collaboration, mutual web surfing and many more yet to be discovered • the idea of a “call” as a special, discrete event could well disappear. 26
2727 Processors and Applications • The latest processors support fast visualization of large data sets, and intensive math for real-time simulations • Applications include digital entertainment, 3-D games, graphics, astronomy, biosciences, and predictive modeling • Simulation of blood flow in the human body • Space weather modeling • Virtual tests for therapeutic cancer drugs • Global modeling of the Earth’s magnetosphere • Simulations of shock waves and eddies in turbulent fluids • Large-scale structure of galaxies and galaxy clusters • Modeling the interaction of proteins within individual cells • Studying instability and turbulence in plasmas • Testing models of the formation of cosmological structures
Storage Dimensions • 2 KB (16,000 bits) – One typewritten page • 1 MB (Megabyte) can store – One long novel, stored as text – One full-page black-and-white image – One 3 x 5 inch color picture – 2 minutes of telephone-quality sound – 7 seconds of CD-quality sound – 0.04 seconds of broadcast-quality video • 4 GB (Gigabyte) – One feature-length film – High-definition movies use 6x the storage space of traditional movies. • 1TB (Terabyte) 28
Optical Storage Media • 1st Generation – CD-ROM capacity = 650 MB • 2nd Generation – DVD capacity = 4.6 GB to 17 GB – Transfer rates range from 600 Kbps to 1.3 Mbps • 3rd Generation – Blu-ray optical disc = 25GB (single-layer) or 50GB (dual-layer) – Transfer rates range from 36Mbps to 432 Mbps 29
Optical Storage Media • Alternative Disc Technologies – Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD) • Based on OptWare collinear holography technology • Capacity of up to 3.9TB • Transfer rates of up to 1Gbps possible – 3D optical data storage • Call/Recall Inc has unveiled the first optical storage solutions where information can be recorded and/or read in three dimensional resolution • Capacity of 5-10 TB • Transfer rates of 100Mbps to 500 Mbps 30
Emerging Storage Technologies • Bacterial Protein Memory – Bacteriorhodopsin (BR) • can store TBs per cuvette • Molecular Memory – Rotaxanes • Can store 100 Gbits per inch • Likely to remain a laboratory curiosity • Magnetic Sensors – high degree of sensitivity means terabits of data can be fit into a square inch of disk space 31
Bacterial Protein Memory • Bacteriorhodopsin (BR) is one of the first forms of life on our planet - a protein grown by salt marsh bacteria at least 2.3 billion years ago – and it is is likely to become the wave of the future in computer data storage and manipulation. • BR is a tiny, rugged protein that has improved through billions of years of evolution to become extremely efficient at converting light into energy. • As a biological substance, the protein also enables data to be stored in three dimensions, just like the human brain. • Expected to reach TBs 32
Bacteriorhodopsin 33 Cuvette size = 1x1x3 cm Capacity = Terabytes Library of Congress, (about 20 TeraBytes!!)
Rotaxanes • A memory subsystem that uses molecules to store digital bits. • A vital piece of nanoelectronic circuitry has been produced which could bring molecular computers a step closer. • The device is the size of a human white blood cell - dimensions that its solid-state equivalent are not expected to attain before the year 2020. 34
Rotaxanes • Teams of scientists from Caltech and UCLA have made a molecular electronic device that mimics dynamic random access memory (DRAM) circuits on today's computer microchips. • The complete electronic memory circuit contained 160,000 bits at a density of 1011 bits cm-2 . • A single bit is only 15 nanometres wide, or about one ten-thousandth the diameter of a human hair. • By contrast, the most dense memory devices currently available are approximately 140 nanometres in width. 3535
Rotaxanes • New advancements have been scored by Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) scientists on ultrahigh-density information storage as they successfully carried out the reversible, erasable and rewritable nanorecording on H2 thin films of rotaxane, a superamolecular structure of dumbbell-like molecules trapped within the cavity of macrocycles. 3636
Magnetic Sensors • Tiny magnetic sensors, microscopic whiskers of nickel only a few atoms wide are capable of detecting extremely weak magnetic fields. • The high degree of sensitivity means terabits of data -- or trillions of bits -- could be crammed into a square inch of disk space. 37
38 Storage vs Content • In 2007, the amount of information created surpassed the storage capacity available. • By 2011, almost 50% of the digital universe will not have a “permanent” home. • The information created in 2011 will be contained in more than 20 quadrillion (20 million billion) electronic information containers – files, images, packets, tags, etc. 38
39 Bandwidth Definition • The term itself comes from the radio realm, and the visualization of the electromagnetic spectrum, where the spectrum is divided into “bands”. • The bands, and the channels within them, have a “width” expressed in Hertz (cycles per second). • The wider the band, the more information it can . • Information transfer rate is expressed in bits per second (bps).
Transmission Measurements • Kilo (Kbps) 103 Thousand bps • Mega (Mbps) 106 Million bps • Giga (Gbps) 109 Billion bps • Tera (Tbps) 1012 Trillion bps • Peta (Pbps) 1015 Thousand Trillion bps • Exa (Ebps) 1018 Billion Billion bps • Zetta (Zbps) 1021 Billion Trillion bps • Yotta (Ybps) 1024 Trillion Trillion bps40
Transfer Rate Examples Document 2400 bps 56 Kbps 1.5Mbps 1.7Gbps Page 8 sec 0.34 sec 0.013 sec 1.13x10-5 sec Report 4 min 10.3 sec 0.38 sec 3.39X10-4 sec Book 0.67 hr 1.7 min 3.84 sec .0034 sec Dictionary 2.3 days 2.38 hrs 5.3 min 0.28 sec Encyclopedia 5 days 5.15 hrs 11.6 min 0.61 sec Local library 7.4 yrs 116 days 4.32 days 5.49 min College library 74 yrs 3.17 yrs 43.2 days 0.92 hrs Library of Congress** 1,900 yrs 81.5 yrs 3 yrs 23.5 hrs 41
42 Transfer Rate Examples Document 10 Gbps 100 Gbps 1 Tbps 1 Pbps 1 Ebps Library of Congress (LCO)** **LCO (at 20TB) is used as a key measure to denote the immensity of data we have today 2.35 hrs 14.1 min 1.41 min 8.26 sec .826 sec
Bandwidth Hungry Applications • By 2015, estimates of annual traffic in the U.S. alone are projected to equal over 1 Zettabyte! – Movie downloads and P2P file sharing 100EB – Video calling and virtual windows 400EB – Cloud computing and remote backup 50EB – Internet video gaming and virtual worlds 200EB – Non-Internet IPTV >100EB – Business IP traffic 100EB – Phone, web, email, photos, music 50EB • The result will be an U.S. Internet that is 50x larger than it was in 2006! 43
How Much is an Exabyte? • 5EB = amount of new information created and stored in 2002 –equal to 37,000 Libraries of Congress (LOC) • 161EB = the amount of digital information created and copied in 2006 –equal to 3 million times all the books ever written! 44
How Much is an Exabyte? • 988EB = amount of digital information predicted to be created and copied in 2010 • By 2015 it is expected the traffic on the Internet will be equal to the information contained in 50 million Libraries of Congress (LOC) 45
From Exacosm to the Zettabyte Era • Annual global IP traffic is over 2/3 of a ZB (667 EB) in 2013. – the economic downturn has had only the slightest of impacts on traffic growth • By 2013, the Internet was 4x larger than in 2009 – each month, the equivalent of 10 trillion DVDs will flow across the Internet 46Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast and Methodology, 2008-2013, June 9, 2009
Traffic in the Zettabyte Era • Traffic growth will be driven by –visual networking • usage of video increases with social networking –the widgetization of Internet and TV • network traffic grows beyond the boundaries of PC browsers and TV screens –hyperconnectivity • all things that can or should communicate through the network will communicate through the network 47
Visual Traffic in the Zettabyte Era • Cisco Telepresence 15 Mbps,symmetrical, per session 2008 • MSN Msgr Video 4 PB per month 2008 • All Radio and TV 100 PB per year 2008 • YouTube 600 PB per year 2008 • HD YouTube 12 EB per year projected • Amateur Video 5 EB per year 2008 • HiDef Video 50 EB per year projected • HD Movie 1 GB per movie 2008 • HD NetFlix 5.5 EB per year projected • Massive Parallel Game 100 PB per month 1 million players • 3D HD Video 100 EB per experience projected • Ultra-HD 1 ZB per experience projected • 7,680x4,320 pixels, 33 megapixels per frame, 60 fps, • Uncompressed 2 hour movie=25 TB, w/MPEG4 compression=360 GB 48
49 Visual Communications and Embedded Networked Intelligence • Global Telephone and Videotelephony Traffic – 2008 30 EB per year – w/video 300 EB per year (estimated) – w/hi-def video 3 ZB per year (estimated) • Devices Connected to the Internet (Global) – 2000 100 million – 2015 15 billion Source: “ Estimating the Exaflood”, Discovery Institute, January 29, 2008 ,and Intel
The Hyperconnected Zettacosm • Foundation of the hyperconnected universe – Multitasking – Passive Networking • Enablers of hyperconnectivity – Digitization of content – Growing availability of broadband access – Expanding screen surface area and resolution – Growth in number of network-enabled devices – Increase in power and speed of computing devices 50
The Expansion of the “Network Day” 51Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast and Methodology, 2008-2013 June 9, 2009
24 Hour Day = 36 Hour Network Day 52
Zettacosm Evolution 53Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast and Methodology, 2008-2013 June 9, 2009
Growth of Traffic Generating Units 54 Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast and Methodology, 2008-2013 June 9, 2009 Sample household today: 2 PCs, each w/ 11 apps 2 T Vs 2 DVRs 1 gaming console 1 Internet media device 1 portable gaming device 1 MP3 player 1 Smartphone w/3 apps 1 eBook reader This household = 35 TGUs
Zettacosm Enablers • Platforms are converging - PCs, digital TVs, game consoles, mobile devices, and intelligent consumer devices share four things in common –Broadband access –High-performance processors –Large display screens and resolution –A variety of human-centered input-output devices and accessories 55
Zettacosm Devices • Increasingly PCs will represent a shrinking percentage of all broadband-enabled devices , new entrants will include – Set-top boxes – IP phone screens – Gaming devices and handheld gaming consoles – e-book readers – Large-screen mobile devices – In-vehicle-GPS displays – TelePresence screens – Digital advertising and sales displays 56
Application Trends • The changing traffic patterns are ushering in a new genre of applications requiring next generation networks. – Digital entertainment – 3D virtual reality – Streaming media – Visualization – Tele-presence – Mobile alternatives – Sensory networks 57
Applications Evolution • Industries being revolutionized by the new era of advanced applications and enabling telecoms infrastructure include – Entertainment – Advertising – Healthcare – Education – Transportation – Government – Warfare – along with just about every industry you can think of! 58
Key ICT Trends • The Age of Intelligence –Things that think –Intelligent wearables –Man-machine interactions –Virtual reality –Robot squads –Sensor networks 59
Key ICT Trends • The Age of Intelligence (continued) –Transformation and the 2.0 ecosystem –Visual Reality –Cloud computing –Web Mashups –Social Networking –Green IT 60
The Age of Intelligence • The devices used to communicate with the Internet today, including PCs, organizers, telephones, and mobiles, present two problems – They are at odds with human behavior – They are often the bottlenecks impeding the process and progress of information exchange. 61
Communicator 2010 62
Organic Light-Emitting Displays 63
Future Laptop 64
Tangible User Interfaces 65
Tangible User Interfaces 66
The Age of Intelligence • Ubiquitous computing (Ubicomp) – Also known as ambient, calm, or pervasive computing – Takes computers out of boxes and puts them into ordinary everyday things around you • The emergence of things that think, and communicate! – smart appliances, smart furniture, smart homes – smart cloths, smart food, smart wrappers, smart needles – smart cars, smart highways – smart materials, smart structures, smart places 67
68 Intelligence in Every Object
Doctors in a Box 69
Smart Healthcare 70
Smart Things, Fast Networks Life Enhancing and Life Sustaining 71
Truly “Embedded” Intelligence 72
Spatial Hierarchy of Ubicomp • Smart spaces and aware environments • Cooperative buildings • Roomware (software for rooms) and reactive rooms • Media spaces • Spatially immersive displays • Information furniture • Networked appliances • Handheld/mobile/nomadic/portable/wireless • Wearable/intimate computing • Computational clothing (smart cloths) • Embedded man 73
74 Wearable Evolution http://www.wearcam.org/ 74
Wearable Evolution • Business professionals, general consumers, and youths worldwide are carrying an increasing number of portable electronic information and communications gadgets • E-textiles are emerging as the more versatile, and elegant alternative. 75
The Wearable Motherboard Infineon Fabric 76
The Wearable Motherboard 77
Intelligent Wearables 78
Social Networking ala Wearables 79
Smart Fabrics - Optical Camouflage 80
Future Plans for Wearables • Flexible electronic computer displays that will result in outfits that change images, projections, and patterns. • Temperature-sensitive fibers could be woven into mood fabrics • The military is financing research into the ultimate camouflage – “chameleon fabrics” with colors and patterns that would change in response to electrical commands. • Smart cloths will likely be powered by photovoltaic fibers, converting light or heat into various functions. 81
Wearable Sensor Networks • The importance of intelligent wearables has to do with shifting traffic patterns. • The projection is that by 2017, 95% of the traffic on networks would come from machine to machine communications. • Embedded devices and intelligent wearables will require access to communications networks in order to be of value to their users. 82
Man-Machine Interactions • The realm of man-machine interactions covers a wide range of activities, including – affective computing – brain-computing interfaces – software agents – augmented reality – virtual reality – the growing presence of robots 83
84 Man-Machine Interactions Communications Channels 5 Direct Input Channels Sight Hearing Touch Smell Taste 2 Direct Output Channels Language Motion Future Indirect Channels Gaze Tracking Brain Waves Thought Emotion
Affective Computing • Affective computing – gives computers the capability of recording human responses and identifying behavior patterns. • Wearable computers refer to – sensors embedded in clothing to register biological and physiological parameters,and communicate them if appropriate. 85
Affective Accessories 86
Man-Machine Applicatioins 87
Brain-Computer Interactions 88
Augmented Reality • Augmented Reality is the field of superimposing computer data on real images. • With this approach, hidden information about all types of objects can be made visible. • Applications exist in numerous areas, including – architecture – building engineering – maintenance operations – surgical procedures – warfare 89
Augmented Reality 90
Augmented Reality 2 91
Virtual Reality 92
Virtual Reality – The Future • In a February 2008 speech, inventor and futurologist Ray Kurzweil predicted….. – Ordinary machines will achieve human-like intelligence in the next 20 years. – Computers the size of blood cells will create fully immersive virtual realities by 2033. – "Today you can put a pea-sized computer inside your brain, if you have Parkinson's disease and want to replace the biological neurons that were destroyed by the disease." – A billion-fold increase in computing performance and capability over the next 25 years coupled with the 100,000 fold shrinking, would lead to "blood cell-size devices. 93
Virtual Reality – The Future • “These "blood cell-size devices will be able to go inside our bodies and keep us healthy and inside our brain and expand our intelligence". • He said the blood cell computers would be able to "produce full immersion virtual reality from inside the nervous system". • He said the games industry had to be thinking about the future development of computing now. • "The games industry fits in well with the acceleration of progress; in no other industry do you feel that more than games." 94
Virtual Reality – The Future • Mr Kurzweil said "In virtual worlds we do real romance, real learning, real business. Virtual reality is real reality." • "Games are the cutting edge of what is happening - we are going to spend more of our time in virtual reality environments.” • "Fully emergent games is really where we want to go. We will do most of our learning through these massively parallel interactions." • "Play is how we principally learn and principally create.” 95
Tele-immersion Applications • Tele-immersion – the combination of real and virtual environments for purposes of display or interaction. – Tele-meetings – Tele-training – Collaborative engineering and design – Medical applications – Entertainment services 96
Tele-Immersion Meetings 97
Cisco Telepresence Meeting 98
Robots – The Next Frontier • Intelligent robot squads –self-organizing groups of robots –under the control of neural networks –eliminating the need for humans 99
Bomb Squad Robots • Meet Andros-Wolverine - he is a six-wheeled, one-armed robotic vehicle responsible for assisting bomb squads in defusing of all types of explosive devices. • Today, he can only defuse simple pipe and letter bombs, but Sandia National Laboratories' Intelligent Systems and Robotics Center (ISRC) hopes to extend these capabilities to car bombs and, one day, even nuclear devices. 100
Robot Farmers 101
Hospital Robots 102
Factory Robots 103
NASA Robonauts 104
Micromechanical Flying Insect 105 …..Our country is at war in an unfamiliar territory, and a battle is about to begin...However, the enemy doesn't know that its every move is being monitored by robotic insects equipped with tiny cameras, flying overhead...called micro air vehicles (MAVs)...dime-sized flying robots..
MAV Urban Operation 106
Next-Generation Military UAV Control Center 107
Home Robots 108
Meet Valerie – Domestic Android 109 Valerie planned to sell for US$59,000 with a one year warranty http://www.androidworld.com/prod19.htm
Sensor Networks 110
Sensor Networks Defined • A sensor network refers to ………. a group of specialized transducers with a communications infrastructure intended to monitor and record conditions at diverse locations. • A transducer is defined as an electronic device that converts energy from one form to another, for example thermometers, position and pressure sensors, microphones, and antenna. 111
What do Sensor Networks Sense? • Commonly monitored parameters include… – temperature - humidity – pressure - wind direction and speed – illumination intensity - vibration intensity – sound intensity - power-line voltage – pollutant levels - chemical concentrations – vital body functions 112
How Do Sensor Networks Work? • A sensor network consists of multiple detection stations called sensor nodes, each of which is small, lightweight and portable. • Every sensor node is equipped with a – transducer – microcomputer – transceiver – power source • The power for each sensor node is derived from the electric utility or from a battery. 113
Sensor Node Functions • Each of the sensor node’s components has a unique function….. – The transducer generates electrical signals based on sensed physical effects and phenomena. – The microcomputer processes and stores the sensor output. – The transceiver, either hard-wired or wireless, receives commands from a central computer and transmits data to that computer. 114
115 Sensor Network Diagram * *** * * * * * * * * * * * *Mesh Node (router) Gateway Node Database PC Remote Base Station Sensor Nodes * Mobile Tablet Wireless Links
Grid Computing • While not a new concept, by moving into commercial markets, grid computing is becoming the key to the future of e-business, representing the next step in the development of the Internet as a real-time computing platform. • Some 80% – 90% of processing capacity is unused, regardless of whether it is a PC, workstation or mainframe. 116
Grid Computing Categories • Grid computing has three main application areas –On-demand computing grids –Data storage grids –Collaboration grids 117
Grid Computing Markets • Life sciences • Energy • Manufacturing • Financial • Government • Research and Development 118
Grid Computing Example • Europe’s CERN nuclear research center planned to start testing the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in 2007. CERN has built a data grid to accomplish this. – This experiment involves 40 TB (terabytes) of data per second – Even with a reduction of data, via compression and such, it will still generate 8 PB (petabytes) of data per year. – In addition to CERN, over 1,000 institutions plan to provide storage capacity. 119
Computing and the Network 120 1990 – 1999 The Network Is The Computer 2000-2010 The Network Is Computing
Cloud Computing Defined • It is a style of computing where IT-related capabilities are provided “as a service”, allowing users to access technology-enabled services "in the cloud“, without knowledge of, expertise with, or control over the technology infrastructure that supports them. 121
Cloud Computing 122
Cloud Computing Categories • The concept generally incorporates combinations of the following: – Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) – Platform as a Service (PaaS) – Software as a Service (SaaS) – Other recent (ca. 2007–09) technologies that rely on the Internet to satisfy the computing needs of users. 123
Cloud Computing • Cloud computing services often provide common business applications online that are accessed from a web browser, while the software and data are stored on the servers. • The term “cloud” is used as a metaphor for the Internet, based on how the Internet is depicted in computer network diagrams and is an abstraction for the complex infrastructure it conceals. 124
Web Mashups 125
Web Mashups • In web development, a mashup is a web page or application that combines data or functionality from two or more external sources to create a new service. • The term “mashup” implies easy, fast integration, frequently using open APIs and data sources to produce results that were not the original reason for producing the raw source data. 126
Web Mashup Categories • There are many types of mashups, such as – consumer mashups – enterprise mashups – data mashups – business mashups • The most common type of mashup is the consumer mashup, aimed at the general public. 127
Realtime Communications • Realtime communications will generate added value by reengineering and differentiating business processes. • Realtime communications will affect business processes by substantially increasing the – speed – efficiency – security 128
Realtime Communications 1st and 2nd Generations • The core element of realtime communications is the convergence of voice and data communications based on IP (Internet Protocol). • The first IP communication generation (1gIP) is focused on using existing network infrastructure for converged applications in order to cut costs. • The second IP communication generation (2gIP) will be primarily focused on reengineering and differentiating business processes. 129
Realtime Communications Applications • By integrating realtime communications into IT, enterprises will enable their business processes, creating the possibility of realtime business. • New productivity gains are expected from two key applications – Process-supporting communications – Ad-hoc communications 130
Realtime Communications Benefits • Productivity gains of these magnitudes translate into substantial top-line revenue enhancements • At the same time, gains in responsiveness can help raise brand awareness and loyalty, reduce customer churn and extend market reach. 131
Social Networking 132
133 Social Networking Model 133
Green IT 134
135 The New Public Network • End-to-end digitalization • End-to-end optical networking • Intelligent, programmable networks – PSTN • distributed logic and databases • high-speed common channel signaling, SS7 • open application program interfaces (APIs) –IP networks • IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) • Convergence • Networks, devices, applications
The New Public Network • Network integration describes a major trend in communication technology development. • Driven by the market and new technologies, PSTN is evolving to NGN and, with transformation, the two jointly deliver high quality, rich VoIP services, enhanced data services, and video and multimedia services. • Moreover, voice, data and multimedia integration will bring users an unprecedented digital experience 136
137 The New Public Network • Broadband infrastructure –high bandwidth, multichannel transmission lines –high-speed fiber and broadband wireless media –low latencies –multiservice agnostic platforms –next generation telephony –quality of service guarantees –encryption and security services
Key Technology Shifts • From Narrowband to Broadband – from single channel to multichannel – from low bandwidth to high bandwidth • From Circuit switched to Packet switched – from exclusive channel to shared channel • From Data over Voice to Voice over Data – from data over circuit-switched analog voice network to voice over digital data packet network • From Electronic to Optical – shift from electronic networks to optical networking 138
Key Technology Shifts • From Singlemedia to Multimedia – from voice to multimodal communications • From Fixed to Mobile – from fixed wireline connections to mobile wireless communications • From Portable to Wearable – from unresponsive standalone devices to affective wearable computers 139
What is Converging? • Networks Infrastructures – PSTN, Internet, Wireless, Broadcast, Cable TV, Corporate Back Office • Network Services – Local, Long Distance, Wireless, Internet, Hosting, Applications Partnering, Security, Firewalls, Legacy Systems Conversion, Settlement • Devices – Television, Telephone, Computer, Appliances, Clothing & Jewelry, Tattoos, Neural Implants 140
What is Converging? • Applications – Communications, Information Services, Entertainment, E- Commerce, Affective Computing, Location-based Services • Industries – Biotechnology, Computing, Consumer Electronics, Entertainment, Publishing, Power Utilities, Telecommunications • Man & Machine – Artificial Limbs and Organs, Intelligent Implants, Neural Interfaces, Artificial Life 141

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What is telecom?

  • 1.
  • 2.
    The Telecom Infrastructure •Telecommunications is the most critical infrastructure of the 21st century. • Investment in telecom is more productive than investment in other kinds of infrastructure. • World Bank research* shows a large productivity benefit to investment in telecom—larger than investments in roads, electricity or even education! *Canning, David. Infrastructure’s Contribution to Aggregate Output, The World Bank Policy Research Working Papers Series # 2246, 30 Nov 1999. http://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/2246.html 2
  • 3.
    The Telecom Infrastructure •And of course, the impact is exceptionally noticeable in developing nations. • More recent research* based on the spread of mobile phones finds telecommunication’s impact on economic growth is twice as large in developing nations as in developed nations. *Waverman, Leonard; Meschi, Meloria and Fuss, Melvyn. The Impact of Telecoms on Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Vodafone Policy Paper Series, 2, March 2005, pp. 10-23. 3
  • 4.
    The Telecom Economy •According to the new industry market study, telecommunications services revenue worldwide will grow from $2.1 trillion in 2014 to $2.4 trillion in 2019 at a combined average growth rate of 2.1 percent. 4
  • 5.
  • 6.
    Measurements of theDigital World • Processors – Processing power is measured in number of transistors and operations per second – The size of the features (the elements that make up the structures on a chip) is today measured in nanometers. • Digital storage – Measured in Bytes (B) • 1 bit = a single “1” or “0” • 1 Byte = 8 bits = single character (letter “A”, number “2”, etc) • Digital transmission rate – Measured in bits per second (bps) 6
  • 7.
    7 Key Measurements ofthe Digital Universe • Kilo 103 Thousand 1,000 • Mega 106 Million 1,000 Kilo • Giga 109 Billion 1,000 Mega • Tera 1012 Trillion 1,000 Giga • Peta 1015 Million Billion 1,000 Tera • Exa 1018 Billion Billion 1,000 Peta • Zetta 1021 Billion Trillion 1,000 Exa • Yotta 1024 Trillion Trillion 1,000 Zetta 7
  • 8.
    How Much DataIs That?* • 2KB = one typewritten page • 100KB = a small, low-resolution image • 1MB = one digital chest x-ray, or one minute of high-fidelity sound • 5 MB = the complete works of Shakespeare, or 30 seconds of broadcast quality video • 50 MB = one digital mammogram • 100 MB = two encyclopedia volumes, or 3 feet of books on a shelf • 500 MB = one CD-ROM 8
  • 9.
    How Much DataIs That?* • 1 GB = one pickup truck full of books, or symphony in high-fidelity sound, or one broadcast movie • 1 TB = all the X-ray films in a large technological hospital, or 50,000 trees made into paper and printed, or daily rate of EOS (Earth Orbiting System) data (as of 1998) • 20 TB = Printed collection of the U. S. Library of Congress (LOC) 9
  • 10.
    10 How Much DataIs That?* • 2PB = all U. S. academic research libraries • 200PB = all printed material • 1EB = one billion pickup trucks full of books, or one trillion 400 page books • 5EB = 37,000 Libraries of Congress, or about 30 feet of books for each of the 6.3 billion people on earth • 161EB = 12 stacks of books reaching from the earth to the sun • 1ZB = 250 million DVDs Source: Source of examples includes “James S. Huggins' Refrigerator Door” at http://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm and Seattle Discover Institute at http://www.discovery.org/ 10
  • 11.
    The Power ofthe Processor • The current environment is generally defined by Moore’s Law, realizing a doubling of processing power every 18 months • Moore’s Law is not infinite – experts now say silicon chips have no more than four years of further miniaturization left • What solutions are being considered? – Silicon photonics – Carbon nanotubes – Superconductors, or quantum computing – Graphene – DNA computing 11
  • 12.
    The Power ofthe Processor • The original transistor built by Bell Labs in 1947 could be held in your hand, while hundreds of Intel’s new 45nm transistors can fit on the surface of a single red blood cell. – Transistors are the tiny switches that process the ones and zeroes that make up our digital world. • This very success is bringing chipmakers to the brink of a new, steep obstacle to further gains in performance. – The problem lies in the tiny metal wires that weave the transistors into integrated circuits. 12
  • 13.
    Transistors Then AndToday 13 Bell Labs Transistor - 1947 Intel Microchip – 2008 800 Million transistors
  • 14.
    The Power ofthe Processor • The Intel 130-nm Pentium 4 processor has – 55 million transistors and – uses roughly 4.8 km of interconnects to support each square centimeter of its circuitry • The Intel 90-nm processor has – 110 million transistors and 6.9 km of interconnects per square centimeter 14 • A 65-nm processor has - 1 billion transistors and 11 km of interconnects per square centimeter, for a total Interconnect length of 34.6k m!
  • 15.
    The Awful TruthAbout Moore’s Law • Intel’s new generation processors are 45nm and 32nm. – Intel's 45nm technology packs more than 400 million transistors for dual-core processors and more than 800 million for quad- core into the same silicon space. – You could fit more than 2,000 45nm transistor gates, laid side by side, across the width of a human hair. – More than 2 million 45nm transistors could fit on a period at the end of a sentence (estimated to be 1/10 square millimeter in area). – If a house shrunk at the same pace transistors have, you would not be able to see a house without a microscope. To see the 45nm transistor, you need a very advanced microscope. 15
  • 16.
    The Awful TruthAbout Moore’s Law • 45-nm technology is used in the Intel® Core™2 processor family code named "Penryn,“. – The price of a transistor in Penryn processors is about 1 millionth the average price of a transistor in 1968. – If car prices had fallen at the same rate, a new car today would cost about 1 cent. • Next, Intel's 32nm chips and next-generation “Nehalem” microprocessor architecture in 2009. • Houses more than 1.9 billion transistors. • 4 million 32nm transistors would fit on a period at the end of a sentence. (1/10 square millimeter in area) • 22nm chips by 2011, followed by 17nm . 1616
  • 17.
    The Awful TruthAbout Moore’s Law Informative Videos • What is Moore’s Law – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLSMn0cNWAw • Moore’s Law No More (with Gordon Moore) – http://news.cnet.com/1606-2_3-29244.html • Moore’s Law Got Me – http://www.metacafe.com/watch/1151291/moores_law_got_ me/ • Moore’s Law Ends in 2020 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oLsMs5_19Y • The Dark Secret Of Hendrik Schon: Moore's law – http://science.discovery.com/videos/the-dark-secret-of- hendrik-schon-moores-law.html 17
  • 18.
    The Awful TruthAbout Moore’s Law • Each new generation of chips only makes the situation worse. • The narrower the wire, the longer it takes a signal to propagate along it. • Today’s most advanced ICs, switch up to 10 billion times a second, and their metal interconnects can barely keep up. • The good news is that the industry is working on solutions • Two main approaches are evolving – New low-K and Hi-K dielectrics – Optical connections 18
  • 19.
    Low-K Dielectrics • Low-kdielectrics changes the propagation characteristics of the tiny on-chip transmission lines, or metal interconnects. • Low-k reduces the interconnect capacitance and wiring delay by changing the material that insulates it from the surrounding silicon chip as a well as from neighboring wire. • The application for low-K is in the metal interconnects connecting all the transistors 19
  • 20.
    Low-K Dielectrics • Thebad news is that the low-k films are extremely difficult to integrate into the manufacturing – they are soft, weak, and adhere poorly to both the silicon and the metal wire. They also crack and delaminate easily. • Today’s 65-nm and the next generation of 45-nm chips require even lower-k materials. – The addition of ultra-low-k interconnect provides a 15 per cent reduction in wiring-related delay as compared to conventional low-k dielectrics. 20
  • 21.
    Hi-K Dielectrics • Aselements in the chip were being reduced to 45 nanometers, the gate dielectric began to lose its insulating (dielectric) quality and exhibited too much leakage. • The new, higher-K dielectrics introduce a more power-saving integrated circuit, allowing even cooler and faster processors at 45 nm and beyond, as well as more circuits per wafer area. 21
  • 22.
    High-K Dielectrics • Higher-Kdielectrics are combined with metal gates for increased performance gains. • The new Hi-K dielectrics are used as the transistor gate dielectric material. • Intel is heralding this technological breakthrough as the “Biggest Change to Computer Chips In 40 Years!” – http://www.intel.com/technology/architecture-silicon/45nm- core2/demo/index.htm?iid=tech_arch_45nm+body_demo 22
  • 23.
    Silicon Photonics • Themore significant development comes from Intel’s successful demonstration of the first continuous all-silicon laser. – http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/sp/download/Analyst_028.htm • Silicon photonics have the potential to greatly extend the lifetime of Moore’s Law. – Optical connections can carry thousands of times more data per second than copper wires can. • Unfortunately, existing optical components are far too expensive for use in individual computers or even local networks. 2323
  • 24.
    Silicon Photonics 24IBM -Silicon Integrated Nanophotonics Intel Hybrid Silicon Laser
  • 25.
    Other Alternatives ToExtend Moore’s Law • Carbon nanotubes – Tubes of pure carbon, about the width of a typical protein molecule, also happen to conduct electricity, and could be used as tiny molecular-scale wires for making electronic circuitry. Unfortunately, they also cost about $500 a gram. • Superconductors, or materials that conduct electricity with zero electrical resistance. – New ways to harness the power of quantum qubits to boost computing power, but there are very practical difficulties in building a quantum computer • Graphene - a new material exactly one-atom thick has been used to create a one nanometer transistor. 25
  • 26.
    Moore’s Law and Telecommunications •On the positive side, thanks to Moore’s Law, network endpoints today are small, powerful, inexpensive devices. • With such power in the endpoints, the need to embed the functions of a network in the network’s core shrink. • In addition, smart end devices can set up and manage calls far better than a centralized network. – In fact, when voice is implemented in end devices, the ability to mix it into other kinds of interactions emerges • online game play, collaboration, mutual web surfing and many more yet to be discovered • the idea of a “call” as a special, discrete event could well disappear. 26
  • 27.
    2727 Processors and Applications •The latest processors support fast visualization of large data sets, and intensive math for real-time simulations • Applications include digital entertainment, 3-D games, graphics, astronomy, biosciences, and predictive modeling • Simulation of blood flow in the human body • Space weather modeling • Virtual tests for therapeutic cancer drugs • Global modeling of the Earth’s magnetosphere • Simulations of shock waves and eddies in turbulent fluids • Large-scale structure of galaxies and galaxy clusters • Modeling the interaction of proteins within individual cells • Studying instability and turbulence in plasmas • Testing models of the formation of cosmological structures
  • 28.
    Storage Dimensions • 2KB (16,000 bits) – One typewritten page • 1 MB (Megabyte) can store – One long novel, stored as text – One full-page black-and-white image – One 3 x 5 inch color picture – 2 minutes of telephone-quality sound – 7 seconds of CD-quality sound – 0.04 seconds of broadcast-quality video • 4 GB (Gigabyte) – One feature-length film – High-definition movies use 6x the storage space of traditional movies. • 1TB (Terabyte) 28
  • 29.
    Optical Storage Media •1st Generation – CD-ROM capacity = 650 MB • 2nd Generation – DVD capacity = 4.6 GB to 17 GB – Transfer rates range from 600 Kbps to 1.3 Mbps • 3rd Generation – Blu-ray optical disc = 25GB (single-layer) or 50GB (dual-layer) – Transfer rates range from 36Mbps to 432 Mbps 29
  • 30.
    Optical Storage Media •Alternative Disc Technologies – Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD) • Based on OptWare collinear holography technology • Capacity of up to 3.9TB • Transfer rates of up to 1Gbps possible – 3D optical data storage • Call/Recall Inc has unveiled the first optical storage solutions where information can be recorded and/or read in three dimensional resolution • Capacity of 5-10 TB • Transfer rates of 100Mbps to 500 Mbps 30
  • 31.
    Emerging Storage Technologies •Bacterial Protein Memory – Bacteriorhodopsin (BR) • can store TBs per cuvette • Molecular Memory – Rotaxanes • Can store 100 Gbits per inch • Likely to remain a laboratory curiosity • Magnetic Sensors – high degree of sensitivity means terabits of data can be fit into a square inch of disk space 31
  • 32.
    Bacterial Protein Memory •Bacteriorhodopsin (BR) is one of the first forms of life on our planet - a protein grown by salt marsh bacteria at least 2.3 billion years ago – and it is is likely to become the wave of the future in computer data storage and manipulation. • BR is a tiny, rugged protein that has improved through billions of years of evolution to become extremely efficient at converting light into energy. • As a biological substance, the protein also enables data to be stored in three dimensions, just like the human brain. • Expected to reach TBs 32
  • 33.
    Bacteriorhodopsin 33 Cuvette size = 1x1x3cm Capacity = Terabytes Library of Congress, (about 20 TeraBytes!!)
  • 34.
    Rotaxanes • A memorysubsystem that uses molecules to store digital bits. • A vital piece of nanoelectronic circuitry has been produced which could bring molecular computers a step closer. • The device is the size of a human white blood cell - dimensions that its solid-state equivalent are not expected to attain before the year 2020. 34
  • 35.
    Rotaxanes • Teams ofscientists from Caltech and UCLA have made a molecular electronic device that mimics dynamic random access memory (DRAM) circuits on today's computer microchips. • The complete electronic memory circuit contained 160,000 bits at a density of 1011 bits cm-2 . • A single bit is only 15 nanometres wide, or about one ten-thousandth the diameter of a human hair. • By contrast, the most dense memory devices currently available are approximately 140 nanometres in width. 3535
  • 36.
    Rotaxanes • New advancementshave been scored by Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) scientists on ultrahigh-density information storage as they successfully carried out the reversible, erasable and rewritable nanorecording on H2 thin films of rotaxane, a superamolecular structure of dumbbell-like molecules trapped within the cavity of macrocycles. 3636
  • 37.
    Magnetic Sensors • Tinymagnetic sensors, microscopic whiskers of nickel only a few atoms wide are capable of detecting extremely weak magnetic fields. • The high degree of sensitivity means terabits of data -- or trillions of bits -- could be crammed into a square inch of disk space. 37
  • 38.
    38 Storage vs Content •In 2007, the amount of information created surpassed the storage capacity available. • By 2011, almost 50% of the digital universe will not have a “permanent” home. • The information created in 2011 will be contained in more than 20 quadrillion (20 million billion) electronic information containers – files, images, packets, tags, etc. 38
  • 39.
    39 Bandwidth Definition • Theterm itself comes from the radio realm, and the visualization of the electromagnetic spectrum, where the spectrum is divided into “bands”. • The bands, and the channels within them, have a “width” expressed in Hertz (cycles per second). • The wider the band, the more information it can . • Information transfer rate is expressed in bits per second (bps).
  • 40.
    Transmission Measurements • Kilo(Kbps) 103 Thousand bps • Mega (Mbps) 106 Million bps • Giga (Gbps) 109 Billion bps • Tera (Tbps) 1012 Trillion bps • Peta (Pbps) 1015 Thousand Trillion bps • Exa (Ebps) 1018 Billion Billion bps • Zetta (Zbps) 1021 Billion Trillion bps • Yotta (Ybps) 1024 Trillion Trillion bps40
  • 41.
    Transfer Rate Examples Document2400 bps 56 Kbps 1.5Mbps 1.7Gbps Page 8 sec 0.34 sec 0.013 sec 1.13x10-5 sec Report 4 min 10.3 sec 0.38 sec 3.39X10-4 sec Book 0.67 hr 1.7 min 3.84 sec .0034 sec Dictionary 2.3 days 2.38 hrs 5.3 min 0.28 sec Encyclopedia 5 days 5.15 hrs 11.6 min 0.61 sec Local library 7.4 yrs 116 days 4.32 days 5.49 min College library 74 yrs 3.17 yrs 43.2 days 0.92 hrs Library of Congress** 1,900 yrs 81.5 yrs 3 yrs 23.5 hrs 41
  • 42.
    42 Transfer Rate Examples Document10 Gbps 100 Gbps 1 Tbps 1 Pbps 1 Ebps Library of Congress (LCO)** **LCO (at 20TB) is used as a key measure to denote the immensity of data we have today 2.35 hrs 14.1 min 1.41 min 8.26 sec .826 sec
  • 43.
    Bandwidth Hungry Applications •By 2015, estimates of annual traffic in the U.S. alone are projected to equal over 1 Zettabyte! – Movie downloads and P2P file sharing 100EB – Video calling and virtual windows 400EB – Cloud computing and remote backup 50EB – Internet video gaming and virtual worlds 200EB – Non-Internet IPTV >100EB – Business IP traffic 100EB – Phone, web, email, photos, music 50EB • The result will be an U.S. Internet that is 50x larger than it was in 2006! 43
  • 44.
    How Much isan Exabyte? • 5EB = amount of new information created and stored in 2002 –equal to 37,000 Libraries of Congress (LOC) • 161EB = the amount of digital information created and copied in 2006 –equal to 3 million times all the books ever written! 44
  • 45.
    How Much isan Exabyte? • 988EB = amount of digital information predicted to be created and copied in 2010 • By 2015 it is expected the traffic on the Internet will be equal to the information contained in 50 million Libraries of Congress (LOC) 45
  • 46.
    From Exacosm tothe Zettabyte Era • Annual global IP traffic is over 2/3 of a ZB (667 EB) in 2013. – the economic downturn has had only the slightest of impacts on traffic growth • By 2013, the Internet was 4x larger than in 2009 – each month, the equivalent of 10 trillion DVDs will flow across the Internet 46Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast and Methodology, 2008-2013, June 9, 2009
  • 47.
    Traffic in theZettabyte Era • Traffic growth will be driven by –visual networking • usage of video increases with social networking –the widgetization of Internet and TV • network traffic grows beyond the boundaries of PC browsers and TV screens –hyperconnectivity • all things that can or should communicate through the network will communicate through the network 47
  • 48.
    Visual Traffic inthe Zettabyte Era • Cisco Telepresence 15 Mbps,symmetrical, per session 2008 • MSN Msgr Video 4 PB per month 2008 • All Radio and TV 100 PB per year 2008 • YouTube 600 PB per year 2008 • HD YouTube 12 EB per year projected • Amateur Video 5 EB per year 2008 • HiDef Video 50 EB per year projected • HD Movie 1 GB per movie 2008 • HD NetFlix 5.5 EB per year projected • Massive Parallel Game 100 PB per month 1 million players • 3D HD Video 100 EB per experience projected • Ultra-HD 1 ZB per experience projected • 7,680x4,320 pixels, 33 megapixels per frame, 60 fps, • Uncompressed 2 hour movie=25 TB, w/MPEG4 compression=360 GB 48
  • 49.
    49 Visual Communications and EmbeddedNetworked Intelligence • Global Telephone and Videotelephony Traffic – 2008 30 EB per year – w/video 300 EB per year (estimated) – w/hi-def video 3 ZB per year (estimated) • Devices Connected to the Internet (Global) – 2000 100 million – 2015 15 billion Source: “ Estimating the Exaflood”, Discovery Institute, January 29, 2008 ,and Intel
  • 50.
    The Hyperconnected Zettacosm •Foundation of the hyperconnected universe – Multitasking – Passive Networking • Enablers of hyperconnectivity – Digitization of content – Growing availability of broadband access – Expanding screen surface area and resolution – Growth in number of network-enabled devices – Increase in power and speed of computing devices 50
  • 51.
    The Expansion ofthe “Network Day” 51Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast and Methodology, 2008-2013 June 9, 2009
  • 52.
    24 Hour Day= 36 Hour Network Day 52
  • 53.
    Zettacosm Evolution 53Cisco VisualNetworking Index – Forecast and Methodology, 2008-2013 June 9, 2009
  • 54.
    Growth of TrafficGenerating Units 54 Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast and Methodology, 2008-2013 June 9, 2009 Sample household today: 2 PCs, each w/ 11 apps 2 T Vs 2 DVRs 1 gaming console 1 Internet media device 1 portable gaming device 1 MP3 player 1 Smartphone w/3 apps 1 eBook reader This household = 35 TGUs
  • 55.
    Zettacosm Enablers • Platformsare converging - PCs, digital TVs, game consoles, mobile devices, and intelligent consumer devices share four things in common –Broadband access –High-performance processors –Large display screens and resolution –A variety of human-centered input-output devices and accessories 55
  • 56.
    Zettacosm Devices • IncreasinglyPCs will represent a shrinking percentage of all broadband-enabled devices , new entrants will include – Set-top boxes – IP phone screens – Gaming devices and handheld gaming consoles – e-book readers – Large-screen mobile devices – In-vehicle-GPS displays – TelePresence screens – Digital advertising and sales displays 56
  • 57.
    Application Trends • Thechanging traffic patterns are ushering in a new genre of applications requiring next generation networks. – Digital entertainment – 3D virtual reality – Streaming media – Visualization – Tele-presence – Mobile alternatives – Sensory networks 57
  • 58.
    Applications Evolution • Industriesbeing revolutionized by the new era of advanced applications and enabling telecoms infrastructure include – Entertainment – Advertising – Healthcare – Education – Transportation – Government – Warfare – along with just about every industry you can think of! 58
  • 59.
    Key ICT Trends •The Age of Intelligence –Things that think –Intelligent wearables –Man-machine interactions –Virtual reality –Robot squads –Sensor networks 59
  • 60.
    Key ICT Trends •The Age of Intelligence (continued) –Transformation and the 2.0 ecosystem –Visual Reality –Cloud computing –Web Mashups –Social Networking –Green IT 60
  • 61.
    The Age ofIntelligence • The devices used to communicate with the Internet today, including PCs, organizers, telephones, and mobiles, present two problems – They are at odds with human behavior – They are often the bottlenecks impeding the process and progress of information exchange. 61
  • 62.
  • 63.
  • 64.
  • 65.
  • 66.
  • 67.
    The Age ofIntelligence • Ubiquitous computing (Ubicomp) – Also known as ambient, calm, or pervasive computing – Takes computers out of boxes and puts them into ordinary everyday things around you • The emergence of things that think, and communicate! – smart appliances, smart furniture, smart homes – smart cloths, smart food, smart wrappers, smart needles – smart cars, smart highways – smart materials, smart structures, smart places 67
  • 68.
  • 69.
  • 70.
  • 71.
    Smart Things, FastNetworks Life Enhancing and Life Sustaining 71
  • 72.
  • 73.
    Spatial Hierarchy ofUbicomp • Smart spaces and aware environments • Cooperative buildings • Roomware (software for rooms) and reactive rooms • Media spaces • Spatially immersive displays • Information furniture • Networked appliances • Handheld/mobile/nomadic/portable/wireless • Wearable/intimate computing • Computational clothing (smart cloths) • Embedded man 73
  • 74.
  • 75.
    Wearable Evolution • Businessprofessionals, general consumers, and youths worldwide are carrying an increasing number of portable electronic information and communications gadgets • E-textiles are emerging as the more versatile, and elegant alternative. 75
  • 76.
  • 77.
  • 78.
  • 79.
  • 80.
    Smart Fabrics -Optical Camouflage 80
  • 81.
    Future Plans forWearables • Flexible electronic computer displays that will result in outfits that change images, projections, and patterns. • Temperature-sensitive fibers could be woven into mood fabrics • The military is financing research into the ultimate camouflage – “chameleon fabrics” with colors and patterns that would change in response to electrical commands. • Smart cloths will likely be powered by photovoltaic fibers, converting light or heat into various functions. 81
  • 82.
    Wearable Sensor Networks •The importance of intelligent wearables has to do with shifting traffic patterns. • The projection is that by 2017, 95% of the traffic on networks would come from machine to machine communications. • Embedded devices and intelligent wearables will require access to communications networks in order to be of value to their users. 82
  • 83.
    Man-Machine Interactions • Therealm of man-machine interactions covers a wide range of activities, including – affective computing – brain-computing interfaces – software agents – augmented reality – virtual reality – the growing presence of robots 83
  • 84.
    84 Man-Machine Interactions Communications Channels 5Direct Input Channels Sight Hearing Touch Smell Taste 2 Direct Output Channels Language Motion Future Indirect Channels Gaze Tracking Brain Waves Thought Emotion
  • 85.
    Affective Computing • Affectivecomputing – gives computers the capability of recording human responses and identifying behavior patterns. • Wearable computers refer to – sensors embedded in clothing to register biological and physiological parameters,and communicate them if appropriate. 85
  • 86.
  • 87.
  • 88.
  • 89.
    Augmented Reality • AugmentedReality is the field of superimposing computer data on real images. • With this approach, hidden information about all types of objects can be made visible. • Applications exist in numerous areas, including – architecture – building engineering – maintenance operations – surgical procedures – warfare 89
  • 90.
  • 91.
  • 92.
  • 93.
    Virtual Reality –The Future • In a February 2008 speech, inventor and futurologist Ray Kurzweil predicted….. – Ordinary machines will achieve human-like intelligence in the next 20 years. – Computers the size of blood cells will create fully immersive virtual realities by 2033. – "Today you can put a pea-sized computer inside your brain, if you have Parkinson's disease and want to replace the biological neurons that were destroyed by the disease." – A billion-fold increase in computing performance and capability over the next 25 years coupled with the 100,000 fold shrinking, would lead to "blood cell-size devices. 93
  • 94.
    Virtual Reality –The Future • “These "blood cell-size devices will be able to go inside our bodies and keep us healthy and inside our brain and expand our intelligence". • He said the blood cell computers would be able to "produce full immersion virtual reality from inside the nervous system". • He said the games industry had to be thinking about the future development of computing now. • "The games industry fits in well with the acceleration of progress; in no other industry do you feel that more than games." 94
  • 95.
    Virtual Reality –The Future • Mr Kurzweil said "In virtual worlds we do real romance, real learning, real business. Virtual reality is real reality." • "Games are the cutting edge of what is happening - we are going to spend more of our time in virtual reality environments.” • "Fully emergent games is really where we want to go. We will do most of our learning through these massively parallel interactions." • "Play is how we principally learn and principally create.” 95
  • 96.
    Tele-immersion Applications • Tele-immersion– the combination of real and virtual environments for purposes of display or interaction. – Tele-meetings – Tele-training – Collaborative engineering and design – Medical applications – Entertainment services 96
  • 97.
  • 98.
  • 99.
    Robots – TheNext Frontier • Intelligent robot squads –self-organizing groups of robots –under the control of neural networks –eliminating the need for humans 99
  • 100.
    Bomb Squad Robots •Meet Andros-Wolverine - he is a six-wheeled, one-armed robotic vehicle responsible for assisting bomb squads in defusing of all types of explosive devices. • Today, he can only defuse simple pipe and letter bombs, but Sandia National Laboratories' Intelligent Systems and Robotics Center (ISRC) hopes to extend these capabilities to car bombs and, one day, even nuclear devices. 100
  • 101.
  • 102.
  • 103.
  • 104.
  • 105.
    Micromechanical Flying Insect 105 …..Ourcountry is at war in an unfamiliar territory, and a battle is about to begin...However, the enemy doesn't know that its every move is being monitored by robotic insects equipped with tiny cameras, flying overhead...called micro air vehicles (MAVs)...dime-sized flying robots..
  • 106.
  • 107.
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  • 109.
    Meet Valerie –Domestic Android 109 Valerie planned to sell for US$59,000 with a one year warranty http://www.androidworld.com/prod19.htm
  • 110.
  • 111.
    Sensor Networks Defined •A sensor network refers to ………. a group of specialized transducers with a communications infrastructure intended to monitor and record conditions at diverse locations. • A transducer is defined as an electronic device that converts energy from one form to another, for example thermometers, position and pressure sensors, microphones, and antenna. 111
  • 112.
    What do SensorNetworks Sense? • Commonly monitored parameters include… – temperature - humidity – pressure - wind direction and speed – illumination intensity - vibration intensity – sound intensity - power-line voltage – pollutant levels - chemical concentrations – vital body functions 112
  • 113.
    How Do SensorNetworks Work? • A sensor network consists of multiple detection stations called sensor nodes, each of which is small, lightweight and portable. • Every sensor node is equipped with a – transducer – microcomputer – transceiver – power source • The power for each sensor node is derived from the electric utility or from a battery. 113
  • 114.
    Sensor Node Functions •Each of the sensor node’s components has a unique function….. – The transducer generates electrical signals based on sensed physical effects and phenomena. – The microcomputer processes and stores the sensor output. – The transceiver, either hard-wired or wireless, receives commands from a central computer and transmits data to that computer. 114
  • 115.
    115 Sensor Network Diagram **** * * * * * * * * * * * *Mesh Node (router) Gateway Node Database PC Remote Base Station Sensor Nodes * Mobile Tablet Wireless Links
  • 116.
    Grid Computing • Whilenot a new concept, by moving into commercial markets, grid computing is becoming the key to the future of e-business, representing the next step in the development of the Internet as a real-time computing platform. • Some 80% – 90% of processing capacity is unused, regardless of whether it is a PC, workstation or mainframe. 116
  • 117.
    Grid Computing Categories •Grid computing has three main application areas –On-demand computing grids –Data storage grids –Collaboration grids 117
  • 118.
    Grid Computing Markets •Life sciences • Energy • Manufacturing • Financial • Government • Research and Development 118
  • 119.
    Grid Computing Example •Europe’s CERN nuclear research center planned to start testing the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in 2007. CERN has built a data grid to accomplish this. – This experiment involves 40 TB (terabytes) of data per second – Even with a reduction of data, via compression and such, it will still generate 8 PB (petabytes) of data per year. – In addition to CERN, over 1,000 institutions plan to provide storage capacity. 119
  • 120.
    Computing and theNetwork 120 1990 – 1999 The Network Is The Computer 2000-2010 The Network Is Computing
  • 121.
    Cloud Computing Defined •It is a style of computing where IT-related capabilities are provided “as a service”, allowing users to access technology-enabled services "in the cloud“, without knowledge of, expertise with, or control over the technology infrastructure that supports them. 121
  • 122.
  • 123.
    Cloud Computing Categories •The concept generally incorporates combinations of the following: – Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) – Platform as a Service (PaaS) – Software as a Service (SaaS) – Other recent (ca. 2007–09) technologies that rely on the Internet to satisfy the computing needs of users. 123
  • 124.
    Cloud Computing • Cloudcomputing services often provide common business applications online that are accessed from a web browser, while the software and data are stored on the servers. • The term “cloud” is used as a metaphor for the Internet, based on how the Internet is depicted in computer network diagrams and is an abstraction for the complex infrastructure it conceals. 124
  • 125.
  • 126.
    Web Mashups • Inweb development, a mashup is a web page or application that combines data or functionality from two or more external sources to create a new service. • The term “mashup” implies easy, fast integration, frequently using open APIs and data sources to produce results that were not the original reason for producing the raw source data. 126
  • 127.
    Web Mashup Categories •There are many types of mashups, such as – consumer mashups – enterprise mashups – data mashups – business mashups • The most common type of mashup is the consumer mashup, aimed at the general public. 127
  • 128.
    Realtime Communications • Realtimecommunications will generate added value by reengineering and differentiating business processes. • Realtime communications will affect business processes by substantially increasing the – speed – efficiency – security 128
  • 129.
    Realtime Communications 1st and 2nd Generations •The core element of realtime communications is the convergence of voice and data communications based on IP (Internet Protocol). • The first IP communication generation (1gIP) is focused on using existing network infrastructure for converged applications in order to cut costs. • The second IP communication generation (2gIP) will be primarily focused on reengineering and differentiating business processes. 129
  • 130.
    Realtime Communications Applications •By integrating realtime communications into IT, enterprises will enable their business processes, creating the possibility of realtime business. • New productivity gains are expected from two key applications – Process-supporting communications – Ad-hoc communications 130
  • 131.
    Realtime Communications Benefits •Productivity gains of these magnitudes translate into substantial top-line revenue enhancements • At the same time, gains in responsiveness can help raise brand awareness and loyalty, reduce customer churn and extend market reach. 131
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  • 133.
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  • 135.
    135 The New PublicNetwork • End-to-end digitalization • End-to-end optical networking • Intelligent, programmable networks – PSTN • distributed logic and databases • high-speed common channel signaling, SS7 • open application program interfaces (APIs) –IP networks • IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) • Convergence • Networks, devices, applications
  • 136.
    The New PublicNetwork • Network integration describes a major trend in communication technology development. • Driven by the market and new technologies, PSTN is evolving to NGN and, with transformation, the two jointly deliver high quality, rich VoIP services, enhanced data services, and video and multimedia services. • Moreover, voice, data and multimedia integration will bring users an unprecedented digital experience 136
  • 137.
    137 The New PublicNetwork • Broadband infrastructure –high bandwidth, multichannel transmission lines –high-speed fiber and broadband wireless media –low latencies –multiservice agnostic platforms –next generation telephony –quality of service guarantees –encryption and security services
  • 138.
    Key Technology Shifts •From Narrowband to Broadband – from single channel to multichannel – from low bandwidth to high bandwidth • From Circuit switched to Packet switched – from exclusive channel to shared channel • From Data over Voice to Voice over Data – from data over circuit-switched analog voice network to voice over digital data packet network • From Electronic to Optical – shift from electronic networks to optical networking 138
  • 139.
    Key Technology Shifts •From Singlemedia to Multimedia – from voice to multimodal communications • From Fixed to Mobile – from fixed wireline connections to mobile wireless communications • From Portable to Wearable – from unresponsive standalone devices to affective wearable computers 139
  • 140.
    What is Converging? •Networks Infrastructures – PSTN, Internet, Wireless, Broadcast, Cable TV, Corporate Back Office • Network Services – Local, Long Distance, Wireless, Internet, Hosting, Applications Partnering, Security, Firewalls, Legacy Systems Conversion, Settlement • Devices – Television, Telephone, Computer, Appliances, Clothing & Jewelry, Tattoos, Neural Implants 140
  • 141.
    What is Converging? •Applications – Communications, Information Services, Entertainment, E- Commerce, Affective Computing, Location-based Services • Industries – Biotechnology, Computing, Consumer Electronics, Entertainment, Publishing, Power Utilities, Telecommunications • Man & Machine – Artificial Limbs and Organs, Intelligent Implants, Neural Interfaces, Artificial Life 141

Editor's Notes

  • #116 [120] For example, imagine a horse ranch with sensors, each the size of a quarter, dispersed over the land, measuring environmental variables such as temperature and humidity. If each sensor were connected to a base station, the cost would be prohibitive, but in a micromesh network, they are all connected to each other and then to the base station. They synchronize with each other, collect data, and sleep until the next iteration. As this diagram illustrates, a sensor mesh network must bridge to processing elements that deal with the data collected by sensor nodes. It must also provide monitoring and command and control of the mesh in response to changing conditions. This functionality is best implemented in a gateway. As the size of a micromesh network grows, there is increasing need for a gateway-based systems-level architecture. It is predicted that gateways will become a core element of sensor-mesh networks in the coming years.