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What is Scenario Planning? and Scenario Planning: Future Forces
- 1. 1 What is Scenario Planning? We can’t predict the future, but we can better prepare for it. Heather Sauceda Hannon, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
- 2. 2 Poll: How certain are you that you know what the future will look like in one year for your community or agency? • Very certain • Certain • Uncertain • Very uncertain
- 3. 3 What is Scenario Planning? Scenario Planning is a structured process to support decision-making that helps urban and rural planners navigate the uncertainty of the future in the short and long term.
- 4. 4 Why Scenario Planning? • Uses data and evidence • Involves stakeholder input • Addresses a range of possibilities • Helps manage risk • Creates resilient plans
- 5. 5 • Education and awareness • Strategic direction • Action identification Possible outcomes
- 6. 6 • Internal stakeholders • External stakeholders • Special interest groups • Members of the general public • Other Who should be involved?
- 7. 7 Example: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning
- 8. 8 • Reach a specific target • Futures that stakeholders would like to have, even if these futures are unlikely to occur. They help stakeholders examine the pathways needed to reach something like their preferred vision. Normative scenario planning
- 9. 9 • Navigate uncertainty • Based on the present and then developed into several possible futures based on trends, community choices, and potential intervening events Exploratory scenario planning (XSP) Credit: Sonoran Institute, from Denver Water/Tucson Water
- 10. 10 • Pinpoint driving forces of change • Generate multiple scenarios or plausible futures • Draft contingent and robust responses drafted • Establish tipping point/triggers for contingent responses • Monitor and adapt Steps in the exploratory process
- 11. 11 Example: PlanOKC policies needed for each scenario
- 12. 12 Scenario planning as a cycle of planning and implementation Credit: Delaware Valley Regional Planning CouncilCredit: Rebecca Ryan
- 13. 13 Poll: Do you think that your community or agency is prepared for the future? • Yes, we are prepared • I’m not sure how prepared we are • No, we are not prepared
- 14. 14 Using scenarios as an opportunity Credit: Rebecca Ryan
- 15. 15 Heather Sauceda Hannon Scenario Planning Manager hhannon@lincolninst.edu scenarioplanning@lincolninst.edu scenarioplanning.io 113 BRATTLE STREET CAMBRIDGE MA 02138 LINCOLNINST.COM @LANDPOLICY
- 16. 16 Scenario Planning: Future Forces We can’t predict the future, but we can better prepare for it. Heather Sauceda Hannon, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
- 17. 17 Future forces, or drivers of change, are things outside of your control that are uncertain and can affect the future in a changing world.
- 18. 18 • Social • Technological • Economic • Environmental • Political Five lenses for driving forces
- 19. 19 Poll: Which of these categories of driving forces do you think could have the biggest impact on your community? • Social • Technological • Economic • Environmental • Political
- 20. 20 Climate Energy Demographics Food Waste Water Oceans Poverty Urbanization Mobility Credit: Arup Key global issues and trends driving change in the built environment
- 23. 23 Activity: Brainstorm driving forces • Open link for Google Doc • Add forces to the list that you think could affect your region • If your idea is already listed, type it again
- 24. 24 High uncertainty High certainty High impactLow impact Black swan events Key forces to prepare plans for Sorting forces by likelihood and impact
- 25. 25 Lincoln internal scenarios Process Meeting 1 – Explore drivers Meeting 2 – Explore impacts of drivers – Develop indicators Meeting 3 – Build scenarios Meeting 4 – Discuss scenarios – Begin to develop plans Next steps… – Develop plans – Monitor indicators Credit: Community Wealth Partners
- 26. 26 Lincoln internal scenarios KEY QUESTIONS Given the coronavirus pandemic… How can we respond to uncertainties now and over the next 18 months? What actions can we take to come out of this stronger than when we went into the crisis?
- 27. 27 Credit: McKinsey & Company Scenarios: virus, public health and economic policy
- 28. 28 Four Lincoln scenarios: narratives and personas
- 29. 29 Poll: Which scenario do you think we’re trending towards?
- 30. 30 Hell in a Handbasket Everything’s Coming Up Rosy The Swoosh Riding the Corona Rollercoaster
- 31. 31 Poll: Would your community or agency be prepared for Hell in a Handbasket?
- 32. 32 Activity: Potential situations and responses
- 33. 33 Activity: Instructions • Open the link for the Google Doc • Sample If… statements are there, but you can add your own too • Fill in your own Then… statements for what your response or preparation could be to the possible situation listed in the If… statements
- 34. 34 Consortium for Scenario Planning scenarioplanning.io • Network • Annual conference: virtual January 2021 • New publications: – Book: Scenario Planning for Cities and Regions: Managing and Envisioning Uncertain Futures (2020) – Report: How to Use Exploratory Scenario Planning (XSP): Navigating an Uncertain Future (August 2020) • Workshops and Trainings
- 35. 35 Heather Sauceda Hannon Scenario Planning Manager hhannon@lincolninst.edu scenarioplanning@lincolninst.edu scenarioplanning.io 113 BRATTLE STREET CAMBRIDGE MA 02138 LINCOLNINST.COM @LANDPOLICY
Editor's Notes
- Scenario planning is a structured approach to decision making that uses participation and data or other forms of evidence to help: Stakeholders grapple with the tradeoffs that are inherent to planning; and Decision makers and the community deal with increasingly rapid change and uncertainty OR Scenario planning is a tool that enables planners to make better decisions by incorporating stakeholder input and other relevant data more thoughtfully. At its core, the process guides planners, community members, and other stakeholders through considerations of various futures their eventual plan might face. It has its origins in the business community in the 1970s. As the author Steven Johnson put it, you “concoct one story where things get better, one where they get worse, and one where they get weird.” Planners regularly use scenario planning to help make important decisions, increasing their capacity to act strategically in a risky and uncertain world in pursuit of resilient, inclusive, and prosperous places. The participants consider how various elements of their planning might respond to their different scenarios, eventually building to a strategic plan that reflects diverse input, quantitative realities, and qualitative goals. [If needed] Conceptually, scenario planning has a lot in common with anticipatory and adaptive planning techniques, and it can also incorporate elements of contingency planning, strategic planning, exploration of alternative futures, and strategic foresight. Now, we’re working on research to demonstrate the benefit of using scenario planning in circumstances where it makes sense. But there already is a rich literature that shows: More participatory planning yields better plans and outcomes Using more data and evidence in planning yields better plans and outcomes As I’ve discussed, scenario planning brings those together and help communities develop plans that: Are more resilient Were done with stakeholders who then comprise a constituency with greater ownership and commitment to implementation Simply work better for the range of residents and business owners whose lives and livelihoods are involved. OR Scenario planning’s combination of data-driven decision-making and inclusive, participatory approach leads to effective and deeply considered plans that reflect participants’ consensus—and that are therefore more actionable and less controversial to implement than traditionally developed plans. Scenario planning doesn’t need advanced software and tools, although it may incorporate them. At a core it is a framework to help public agencies and communities create better plans. By incorporating diverse voices into planning processes, scenario planning gives informed community members a say in their own future, enabling planners to engage them from the outset of the process to establishes more community buy-in and execute a planning process that better reflects the demographics, concerns, and opinions of the affected community. Simply put, scenario planning enhances (rather than reinvents) existing processes, giving planners—and community participants—new insights, data points, and objectives to work with through a formal, replicable process.
- Now, there are many approaches to scenario planning. But two are prevalent, and variation on these often comprises a blend of them. This approach, called “Normative” in the literature and field, is driven by focus on a vision of the future. Scenarios are used to refine the vision and establish more concrete goals for the community. Each scenario represents an internally-consistent set of choices that, over time, are intended to yield a different package of end goals at the planning horizon year. With this approach, the process yields selection of a single, preferred scenario that then guides the decision making that’s needed to achieve the goals. The choice of a preferred scenario is informed by evaluation criteria that illuminate the tradeoffs that must be made if the scenario is to be a “possible” future. For example, a vision might include single family homes on quarter-acre lots served by transit and near significant preserved natural space. The selection of a preferred scenario would have to confront the impossibility of achieving all of those things together. OR Normative scenario planning is used to articulate the values of a community or region by eliciting people’s opinions about different possible visions of the future. Comparing the pros and cons of several scenarios allows a variety of values to be identified, in order to derive a common set of values or goals for the future of the community or region. Each scenario is based on how the future may play out under a different policy approach.
- The other prevailing approach to scenario planning is driven by the desire to grapple with uncertainty and make decisions today that are more likely to be resilient in the face of change – to stand the test of time. It is used to anticipate the impact that different future conditions may have on values, policies, or goals that have been established or are being considered. This approach asks: how will decisions made today fare in light of external forces that are outside the control of decision makers? how should decision making occur or change over time as uncertainty resolves? The approach uses multiple plausible scenarios as tests for different decisions or to establish triggers for future changes that should occur if certain conditions transpire. Let’s imagine a community with growing concern about sea level rise – a force outside of their control. Current development decisions should be informed by an understanding of future flood water impacts, yet uncertainty about the pace or extent of sea level rise could undermine deliberation, or yield hard-fought decisions that are excessively modest or bold, or based on false precision. Rather than asking everyone to agree on the nature of sea level rise (never mind its causes) BEFORE making decisions about growth and preservation today, a scenario might be constructed to play out a future and allow people to consider a future in which sea level continues to rise. In this fashion, the exploratory scenarios allow for consideration of futures that are plausible rather than certain, with agreement now on actions that will be taken – triggered – if a certain circumstance (such as a particular degree of sea level rise) comes to pass. HYBRID approach: Most scenario planning done today is some combination of these approaches, tailored to purpose. In doing so, participants in a planning process assess an established – or a prospective – vision and goals in light of future forces and expect to adjust decision making over time as uncertainty resolves.
- XSP is often completed with minimal application of data and technology. Focused attention is on pinpointing driving forces of change and generating multiple plausible future end states by weaving together the various ways that driving forces of change might develop. In some cases, XSP benefits from quantitative analysis through data and technology, which can be built into the process as needed.
- This image, from the Philadelphia–area Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, depicts the way in which they have come to use scenario planning as an integral part of an ongoing planning cycle.
- Come out stronger after black swan event (covid)- time of opportunity Different than usual cone of uncertainty that we use
- 50 years out, not necessarily what you see now but what could come in the future Resiliency of your plans for good choices/policies well informed for future
- These are categories. You can look at each issue (coming next) through these lenses to better understand the nuance of the impact. What is the city’s ability to set and enforce policies on this issue? What is the impact on the environment? Species extinction? Forest loss?
- These are the issues or drivers of change, ten topics from Arup to be explored through the lenses of STEEP. Climate: sea level rise, drought, fire Energy: cost of oil and gas, what does renewable future look like Demographics: population increase, income inequality, gender inequality, aging population Food: production, distribution, consumption Waste: consumption, recycling system Water: rising consumption, urban deficit Oceans: industry, food production, impact Poverty: infrastructure issues, economic opportunity Urbanization: housing affordability, access to real estate financing Mobility: transportation access, network, technology
- This is a list of drivers of change from the ConnectSF sp process. They used normative scenario planning.
- Discuss certainty and impact ranking Create better graphic Give examples of low certainty, high impact (pandemic occurrence) black swan events High certainty, low impact Focus on high impact forces
- The questions for your agency will be different but these were some of ours: How can we build new skills and new practices? How can we be prepared to recover more quickly from the next high impact event? What are the skills and tools that the world is going to need from us?
- Survey of global executives 33% A1, then A3 and B1
- Narratives- fictional futures (sometimes people do pretend headlines) Personas- audience and staff Describe
- For the next year, globally
- Essentially worst case scenario Maybe don’t need to be- back to impact and likelihood, choosing which to focus on based on risk
- Talk about preparations and easing anxiety actions of least regret