- The Qatar Exchange index declined 1.61% during the week to close at 11,155.73 points. Trading value increased 0.8% while volume decreased 12% and number of transactions fell 5.6%.
- Masraf Al Rayan reported a 5.2% quarter-on-quarter increase in net income to QR452mn and increased its dividend to QR1.50 per share. Qatar International Islamic Bank's net profit reached QR750mn for 2013.
- Al Khalij Commercial Bank's net profit rose 41.8% quarter-on-quarter to QR152.7mn in Q4 2013 and it declared a 10% cash dividend. Vodafone Qatar's revenue was in
1. QE Index and Volume
11,350
12,000,000
11,298.96
11,243.35
11,245.86
11,200
6,000,000
11,050
0
26-Jan
Regional Indices
Qatar (QE)*
Dubai
Abu Dhabi
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Oman
Bahrain
Close
11,155.73
3,770.38
4,673.07
8,760.62
7,755.80
7,087.32
1,294.33
WTD%
MTD%
YTD%
(1.6)
(1.3)
0.4
(0.1)
(0.3)
(1.6)
1.4
7.5
11.9
8.9
2.6
2.7
3.7
3.6
7.5
11.9
8.9
2.6
2.7
3.7
3.6
29-Jan
30-Jan
QE Index
Value Traded (QR mn)
Week ended
Jan 23, 2014
2,309.0
589,352.1
598,492.4
(1.5)
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn)
Volume (mn)
Chg. %
0.8
42.6
Market Indices
Close
Total Return
15,938.98
All Share Index
2,758.41
Banks/Financial Svcs.
2,632.26
Industrials
3,710.00
Transportation
1,936.62
Real Estate
2,017.06
Insurance
2,614.33
Telecoms
1,574.66
Consumer
6,073.03
Al Rayan Islamic Index
3,216.71
Market Indices
Weekly Index Performance
(5.6)
42
0.0
14:28
Market Breadth
(12.0)
25,492
42
Companies Traded
48.4
24,068
Number of Transactions
21:17
–
WTD%
(1.6)
(1.5)
(1.9)
(0.5)
(1.3)
(2.4)
3.3
(5.0)
0.1
(0.9)
MTD%
7.5
6.6
7.7
6.0
4.2
3.3
11.9
8.3
2.1
5.9
YTD%
7.5
6.6
7.7
6.0
4.2
3.3
11.9
8.3
2.1
5.9
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
0.0%
(0.1%) (0.3%)
Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn)
652.74
2,369.22
1,339.00
8,070.44
709.97
239.20
37.85
Qatar
(1.3%) (1.6%) (1.6%)
Oman
(3.5%)
Dubai
Foreign institutions remained bullish for the week with net buying
of QR152.4mn (including t-bonds) vs. net buying of QR400.4mn
(including t-bonds) in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained
bearish with net selling of QR49.3mn vs. net selling of QR42.9mn the
week before. Foreign retail investors turned bullish for the week with
net buying of QR17.7mn vs. net selling of QR21.5mn in the prior week.
Qatari retailer investors remained bearish with net selling of
QR120.5mn vs. QR336.0mn the week before. Thus far in 2014, the
Qatar Exchange has witnessed net foreign portfolio investment inflow
of ~$532.2mn vs. ~$1,057mn for the full year of 2013.
28-Jan
Week ended
Jan 30, 2014
2,326.4
Market Indicators
Abu Dhabi
Trading value during the week increased by 0.8% to reach
QR2.32bn vs. QR2.31bn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial
Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for
33.3% of the total equity trading value. Trading volume decreased
by 12.0% to reach 42.6mn shares vs. 48.4mn shares in the prior
week. The number of transaction fell by 5.6% to reach 24,068
transactions versus 25,492 transactions in the prior week. The Banks
& Financial Services sector also led the trading volume, accounting for
30.5% of the total.
27-Jan
Volume
Bahrain
During the week, Masraf Al Rayan (MARK), Al Khalij Commercial
Bank (KCBK) and Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK) reported
4Q2013 results. MARK reported a net income to shareholders of
QR452.0mn in 4Q2013 versus QR429.5mn in 3Q2013. The bank
increased its full year cash dividend per share (DPS) to QR1.50 vs.
QR1.00 in 2012. KCBK registered a net profit of QR152.7mn in
4Q2013 (FY2013: QR550.9mn), an increase of 41.8% QoQ and 14.2%
YoY. KCBK maintained cash DPS of QR1.00 in 2013. While QIIK
posted a net profit (to equity) of QR181.8mn in 4Q2013 vs. our
estimate of QR191.4mn. Profitability was dented by an impairment loss
in investment securities of QR51.7mn in 4Q2013 vs. QR4.8mn in the
first nine months of 2013. QIIK‟s board has recommended the
distribution of cash dividend of QR3.75 per share, to its shareholders
vs. QR3.50 in 2012.
11,155.73
11,170.25
Kuwait
The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index declined 182.68 points, or 1.61%,
during the trading week, to close at 11,155.73 points. Market
capitalization decreased by 1.53% to reach QR589.4 billion (bn) as
compared to QR598.5bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 42
listed companies, 14 companies ended the week higher while and 28
fell. Mannai Corporation (MCCS) was the best performing stock with a
gain of 7.69% on 17.1 million (mn) shares traded. On the other hand,
Ooredoo (ORDS) was the worst performing stock with a decline of
5.64% on only 947.2mn shares traded.
Saudi Arabia
Market Review and Outlook
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
TTM P/E**
P/B**
Dividend Yield
161,895.0
77,095.77
131,258.5
477,434.6#
110,244.9
25,481.2
50,489.1
14.0
19.3
12.8
17.6
17.0
11.0
8.5
1.9
1.4
1.6
2.2
1.2
1.6
0.9
4.1
2.4
3.9
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.7
#
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( Data as of Jan. 29, 2014)
Page 1 of 5
2. News
Market & Corporate News
Qatar tops frontier markets for first time – Qatar has
secured Bloomberg Markets' top ranking in the "most promising
emerging and frontier markets for investors in 2014" category.
The magazine's March 2014 issue will reveal its third annual
ranking for this category, which shows the UAE and Saudi
Arabia in the lead besides Qatar jumping to the top among the
frontier markets for the first time. The surge of the three Gulf
nations has been led by their respective construction and retail
sectors. Qatar will be spending $180bn for building
infrastructure to host the FIFA World Cup in 2022. (GulfTimes.com)
MARK’s net profit up 5.2% QoQ in 4Q2013 – Masraf Al
Rayan (MARK) reported a net income to shareholders of
QR452.0mn vs. our estimate of QR436.8mn and Bloomberg
consensus of QR440.0mn. On a QoQ basis, the bottom-line is
up 5.2% versus QR429.5mn in 3Q2013. The growth primarily
came on the back of reversals in provisions on financing
assets, which stood at QR26.2mn in the first nine months of
2013 versus a reversal of QR11.3mn for full year 2013. The
bank increased its cash dividend to QR1.50 for 2013. MARK
posted a full year net profit of QR1.7bn in 2013, up 13.2% YoY.
EPS stood at QR2.27 in 2013. The bank‟s total assets rose to
QR66.5bn in 2013, indicating an 8.0% YoY growth. Financing
activities reached QR41.4bn, down 0.7% YoY, while total
customer deposits rose to QR48.3bn, an increase of 7.4% YoY.
MARK has recently acquired the majority stake in Islamic Bank
of Britain (IBB) from QIIK. IBB is one of the few standalone
Islamic retail banks in the UK and has a high street presence
with five branches and ~50,000 customers. Furthermore,
MARK has also expressed its intention to buy a 40% stake in a
Libyan bank. The acquisition will cost around QR1bn. Both
these transaction are in line with our view that the bank will
expand for long-term growth potential. (QNBFS Research, QE)
KCBK’s net profit rises 41.8% QoQ in 4Q2013; declares
10% cash dividend – Core banking income along with net
reversals drives KCBK's net profit QoQ and YoY. Al Khaliji
registered a net profit of QR152.7mn in 4Q2013 (FY2013:
QR550.9mn), an increase of 41.8% QoQ and 14.2% YoY.
FY2013 net income exceeded our estimate by 6.8% (BBG
consensus ex-QNBFS: QR383mn). Net interest income gained
by an impressive 15.5% YoY to reach QR590.4mn. Headline
NIM dropped to 1.71% vs. 1.82% in 2012. However, when we
look at the NIM on an adjusted basis, it appears that KCBK's
NIM increased by ~3bps. Moreover, fees & commissions
surprised on the upside, surging by 95.2% YoY to rest at
QR142.8mn (FY2012: QR73.1mn). Another positive surprise
stemmed from FX income. The bank posted QR26.4mn vs. a
loss of QR12.1mn in 2012. On the other hand, investment
income plummeted by 55.2%, reaching QR174.5mn vs.
QR389.7mn in 2012. OPEX ticked up by 2.5% YoY to reach
QR382.8mn (FY2012: QR373.3mn). Thus, the cost-to-income
ratio increased to 40.6% (FY2012: 38.5%). Finally, a
determining factor to KCBK's profitability was a net reversal of
QR11.9mn vs. a net provision of QR61.1mn in 2012. RoAE
slightly gained from 9.3% to 9.7% in 2013 (management's 3year target: 15%). The bank's loan book surged by 58.8%
(QR20.7bn) while deposits expanded 14.8% (QR19.9bn). Thus,
KCBK‟s LDR increased to 104% vs. 75% in 2012. Asset quality
remains intact with the bank ending 2013 with NPL and
coverage ratios of 0.34% and 322.9%, respectively. We expect
KCBK to expand its loan book by 20.2% and 20.1% in 2014
and 2015, respectively. This along with a marginal pick up in
NIMs should translate into bottom-line growth of 10.1% and
14.8% in 2014 (QR606.7mn) and 2015 (QR696.5mn),
respectively. (QNBFS Research, QE)
QIIK reports QR750mn net profit in 2013; recommends
QR3.75 dividend – Qatar International Islamic Bank‟s (QIIK)
annual net profit reached QR750mn for FY2013, growth of
10.5% YoY. Bloomberg consensus estimate was QR732mn.
The bank earned total revenues of QR1.5bn in 2013. EPS
reached QR4.96 in 2013 as compared to QR4.49 in 2012.
QIIK‟s board has recommended the distribution of cash
dividend of 37.5% of the nominal value share, QR3.75 per
share, to its shareholders vs. QR3.50 in 2012. (Peninsula
Qatar)
VFQS reports in-line revenue and improved profitability in
3QFY14 – Vodafone Qatar (VFQS) reported revenue of
QR507.1mn for 3QFY2014 (+9% QoQ, +28% YoY), only 1%
shy of our estimate of QR512.7mn; BBG consensus was
QR495.0mn. Quarterly ARPU of QR127 was slightly higher
than our estimate, while reported mobile subscribers of
1,273,000 was modestly lower. Around 80% of the sequential
growth in mobile service revenue was driven by customer
growth with the remaining stemming from ARPU expansion
helped by data and postpaid (~10% of overall subs); handset
sales also increased QoQ. Net loss narrowed sequentially to
QR53.3mn vs. our estimate of QR66.4mn and BBG consensus
of QR70.0mn. Direct costs and depreciation expenses dropped
below our expectations, causing the majority of this divergence.
EBITDA for the quarter came in at QR134.0mn (26.4% margin
versus 23.7% and 21.6% in the September and June quarters,
respectively). Management guided to the top-end of previous
guidance range for FY14; we retain our above consensus
estimates. During the earnings conference call, VFQS
management guided to the top-end of the range (QR1.901.95bn) for FY14 revenue and EBITDA (QR435-470mn). Our
current modeled estimate is QR1.96bn (BBG consensus:
QR1.90bn) for FY14 revenue and QR465mn (BBG consensus:
QR446mn) for FY14 EBITDA. We will shortly adjust our model
to account for 3QFY14 and are likely to reduce our FY14 net
loss estimate of QR274mn. Finally, we continue to expect
VFQS to pay QR0.10 in dividends per share in FY2014.
(QNBFS Research, QE)
Nakilat secures QR2.44bn refinancing from QNB Group –
Qatar Gas Transport Company Ltd. (Nakilat) has secured a
QR2.44bn facility with QNB Group for the refinancing of its two
existing LNG vessels and the purchase of two new LNG
vessels by its joint venture, Maran Nakilat Company. This is the
second refinancing that Nakilat has secured for its joint venture.
Through the two transactions, Nakilat has arranged a combined
total of QR4.84bn in refinancing for its Maran Nakilat JV. The
two vessels being added to the Maran Nakilat fleet are currently
under construction in South Korea. These vessels will carry
LNG cargoes from Qatar across the world. (Gulf-Times.com)
MPHC’s initial share offer oversubscribed 5 times – Qatar
Petroleum (QP), Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company‟s
(MPHC) parent company, said MPHC‟s IPO has been
oversubscribed five times. The maximum number of shares
allocated to individual investors is 1,633, in accordance with the
allocation policy set out in MPHC‟s prospectus, which will start
trading on the Qatar Exchange in February. (Gulf-Times.com)
QNCD reports net profit of QR436mn in 2013 – Qatar
National Cement Company (QNCD) has reported a net profit of
QR436mn in 2013 as compared to QR425.3mn in 2012. (QE)
Page 2 of 5
3. Qatar Exchange
Top 5 Gainers
Top 5 Decliners
0.0%
12.0%
8.0%
7.7%
-3.0%
7.2%
-3.3%
5.4%
2.7%
-6.0%
Qatar
International
Islamic Bank
Commercial
Bank of Qatar
2.5
Gulf
International
Services
Barwa Real
Estate
-4.3%
Widam Food
Co.
4.8%
4.0%
Al Khaliji
2.6
-4.4%
-3.1%
-5.6%
0.0%
Mannai Corp. Qatar Cinema
Gulf
& Film
Warehousing
Distribution
Qatar
Insurance
Zad Holding
Ooredoo
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million)
Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
600.0
400.0
-9.0%
9.0
360.4
6.0
4.7
207.9
206.8
200.0
3.1
172.8
143.2
0.0
2.9
3.0
0.0
Industries
Qatar
Gulf
International
Services
QNB Group
Commercial
Bank of Qatar
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Ooredoo
Vodafone Qatar
Masraf Al
Rayan
United
Development
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded
Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)
170
100%
35.46%
28.91%
Non-Qatari
925
80%
1,095
10.83%
60%
11.59%
16.81%
18.93%
40%
20%
36.14%
(170)
41.32%
Qatari
1,402
1,232
0%
Buy
Sell
Qatari Individuals
Qatari Institutions
Non-Qatari Individuals
Non-Qatari Institutions
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
(400)
(200)
-
200
Net Investment
400
600
800
Total Sold
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
Total Bought
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Page 3 of 5
4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
The QE index snapped its three-week winning streak to close the week down 1.6% at 11,155.73. The index, after ending last week on a strong note,
witnessed selling pressure early this week and moved back below its trendline resistance level, as it fell on four of the five trading days. The QE index has
now breached below its support level of 11,170. In addition, the index has also closed near the lowest point of the week, suggesting that we may see further
selling pressure. The RSI has begun to retreat from the overbought zone, while the MACD has given a negative crossover signal. Thus, with both technical
indicators suggesting weakness, we believe the QE Index is likely to fall further from the current levels. The psychological level of 11,000 will the next
important level for the market. The 21-day moving average, currently at 10,992, will also be a strong support zone. The next strong support below this is
seen only near 10,870. However, on the upside, 11,170 will be the immediate resistance level.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates
between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if
the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the
convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the
MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between
the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day
candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
Page 4 of 5
5. Price % Change 5(Jan 30)
Day
% Change
YTD
Market Cap.
QR Million
TTM P/E
P/B
Div. Yield
184.50
(1.86)
7.27
129,100
13.6
2.4
3.3
Qatar Islamic Bank
74.90
(0.93)
8.55
17,698
13.3
1.5
5.0
Commercial Bank of Qatar
71.90
(3.10)
1.55
17,791
10.2
1.3
8.3
Doha Bank
64.00
(1.84)
9.97
16,536
11.1
1.5
6.5
Al Ahli Bank
63.80
(2.74)
16.00
8,107
15.4
2.3
4.7
Qatar International Islamic Bank
67.70
(4.38)
9.72
10,248
13.7
1.9
5.2
Masraf Al Rayan
34.70
(1.00)
10.86
26,025
15.3
2.6
2.9
Al Khaliji Bank
20.45
(3.31)
2.30
7,362
13.4
1.3
4.9
National Leasing
30.95
1.81
2.65
1,531
17.6
1.2
6.5
Dlala Holding
22.60
(1.14)
2.26
502
N/M
2.2
N/A
Qatar & Oman Investment
12.60
(1.56)
0.64
397
26.4
1.2
4.0
Islamic Holding Group
45.95
(0.76)
(0.11)
184
20.3
3.1
2.5
Company Name
Qatar National Bank
235,482
Banking and Financial Services
Zad Holding
72.00
2.71
3.60
942
9.6
0.7
5.6
Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices
14.20
1.07
2.53
164
N/M
0.9
N/A
Salam International Investment
13.50
2.66
3.77
1,543
12.0
0.9
5.2
Medicare Group
53.00
(0.19)
0.95
1,492
24.3
1.9
3.4
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution
43.00
7.23
7.23
246
32.8
1.8
4.7
287.00
(0.31)
1.02
18,646
15.6
3.1
3.5
51.00
(4.32)
(1.35)
918
15.3
3.8
7.8
2,934
20.1
2.3
5.5
Qatar Fuel
Qatar Meat and Livestock
146.70
Al Meera Consumer Goods
1.52
10.05
26,884
Consumer Goods and Services
51.80
(2.45)
2.37
2,051
9.7
1.5
5.8
Qatar National Cement
117.00
(1.68)
(1.68)
5,745
13.2
2.3
5.1
Industries Qatar
179.80
(0.88)
6.45
108,779
13.4
3.4
4.3
48.15
(0.62)
10.18
5,986
25.7
2.8
1.6
181.50
(0.82)
(0.22)
18,150
12.0
3.2
4.0
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing
Qatari Investors Group
Qatar Electricity and Water
Mannai Corp.
98.00
7.69
9.01
4,471
9.7
1.9
4.8
Aamal
14.73
0.07
(1.80)
8,838
14.0
1.3
N/A
Gulf International Services
75.50
2.30
23.77
11,225
18.5
3.9
2.0
165,245
Industrials
Qatar Insurance
78.10
4.83
17.44
10,031
12.3
1.9
2.6
Doha Insurance
30.00
0.17
20.00
772
11.5
1.4
3.0
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance
45.00
1.12
(6.05)
2,594
3.0
0.8
1.9
Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance
39.10
(1.01)
7.12
668
13.9
1.1
2.1
Qatar Islamic Insurance
62.40
(1.42)
7.77
936
14.7
3.4
5.6
15,000
Insurance
United Development
22.61
(2.71)
0.00
7,625
9.3
0.7
4.4
Barwa Real Estate
31.25
(2.50)
4.87
12,160
17.8
0.9
4.8
Ezdan Real Estate
16.80
(0.88)
(1.18)
44,562
N/M
1.6
0.8
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development
12.20
0.33
9.12
1,220
18.4
1.1
4.9
65,567
Real Estate
149.00
(5.64)
8.60
47,728
18.1
1.9
3.4
11.42
(1.13)
6.63
9,654
N/M
1.6
N/A
Qatar Navigation (Milaha)
88.00
(3.08)
6.02
10,078
10.3
0.8
4.3
Gulf Warehousing
43.20
5.37
4.10
2,055
20.2
2.5
N/A
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat)
Transportation
20.82
(1.05)
2.81
11,659
15.3
3.3
4.8
Qatar Telecom
Vodafone Qatar
57,382
Telecoms
23,792
Qatar Exchange
589,352
Source: Bloomberg
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar
Ahmed M. Shehada
Keith Whitney
Sahbi Kasraoui
Head of Research
Head of Trading
Head of Sales
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa
ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa
keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa
QNB Financial Services SPC
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar
Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an
offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential
investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be
reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts,
QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right
to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views
and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
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