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WEEKLY COMMODITY REPORT
15 SEPTEMBER 2014
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WEEKLY WRAP UP
MONTH
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
% CHG
OI (in Lots)
VOL
DHANIYA
OCT
12055
12055
11420
11478
-0.03
43510
96770
INTRA- DAY LEV- ELS
SUPPORT
SUPP. 1
11247
SUPP. 2
11016
PIVOT
11651
Dhaniya short term trend is down, and furthermore down is expected in com- ing days.
RESIS- TANCE
RES. 1
11882
RES. 2
12286
MONTH
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
% CHANGE
OI (in lots)
VOL
CASTORSEED
OCT
4094
4218
3956
4018
-0.01
174060
608450
INTRA- DAY LEV- ELS
SUPPORT
SUPP. 1
3910
SUPP. 2
3802
PIVOT
4064
Castorseed Short term trend is down. Price ex- pected to go down in com- ing days.
RESIS- TANCE
RES. 1
4172
RES. 2
4326
TURMERIC
OCT
6452
6496
6034
6078
-0.06
14720
54725
INTRA- DAY LEV- ELS
SUPPORT
SUPP. 1
5909
SUPP. 2
5741
PIVOT
6203
Turmeric price is in down trend and may continue in upcoming days.
RESIS- TANCE
RES. 1
6371
RES. 2
6665
GUARGUM
OCT
16250
16500
15680
15880
-0.03
7955
43096
INTRA- DAY LEV- ELS
SUPPORT
SUPP. 1
15540
SUPP. 2
15200
PIVOT
16020
Guargum Short term trend is down, Expecting price may go down in coming days.
RESIS- TANCE
RES. 1
16360
RES. 2
16840
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BUY DHANIYA OCT ABOVE 11760 TGTS 11860,11960 SL 11610
SELL DHANIYA OCT BELOW 11400 TGTS 11300,11200 SL 11550
WEEKLY RECOMMENDATIONS
DHANIYA (OCT)
GUARGUM (OCT.)
GUARSEED (AUG.)
BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 16250 TGTS 16450,16650 SL 16000
SELL GUARGUM OCT BELOW 15800 TGTS 15600,15400 SL 16050
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COMMODITIES IN NEWS
ECONOMIC NEWS India will be the world's No. 1 cotton grower this year, ousting China from the top spot for the first time in over 30 years, US gov- ernment said on Thursday, reflecting a dramatic shift in global sup- plies amid uncertainty over Beijing's farm policy. If the projections by the US Department of Agriculture are accurate, it will mark the end of China's dominance of the global cotton market just as Beijing scraps its stockpiling program. The state reserve's purchasing ..has supported the country's farmers and boosted global prices for the past three years. It also comes as the country's textile industry loses its competitive edge with soaring labor and raw material costs forc- ing some yarn makers to shift production overseas. The estimate also marks the first official nod from the USDA, whose crop estimates are often used as a benchmark across global agricultural markets, to an inflection point in world cotton supply and demand. The switch by the two top growers had been expected after Chinese farmers cut plantings amid uncertainty over the state support program and a planting frenzy in India since August after a late monsoon favored growing conditions.
According to the Central Water Commission (CWC), current live storage of water in main reservoirs of India as on 11 September this year is 119.785 BCM, which is 77% of the live capacity at Full Reser- voir Level (FRL). Due to weak monsoon rains this year the same has fallen by 6% compared to the previous year which was 83% during the same period. Although the late revival of monsoon has raised the storage by 6% compared to the previous week and 5% compared to 10 years average. Jeera October futures went up 0.42% to Rs 10860 on India's National Commod- ity&Derivatives Exchange(NCDEX) on Friday amidst reports of heavy rains growing re- gions of Gujarat. The prices have been driven by sluggish demand from overseas buyers coupled with comfortable supplies. However, lower level demand may have supported prices at lower levels.Area under Jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last year while about 390,000 ha were sown in Rajasthan. Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a supply crunch in the global markets raising supply con- cerns from the two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Produc- tion is also expected to fall in Syria and Turkey due to crop failure. Higher sugar production in top producing country Brazil is threatening India sugar exports as global prices have plummeted. Sugar production in Brazil has outstripped last year's fig- ures in spite of the dry weather conditions. According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association, or Unica, mills in the main growing region produced 20.9 million metric tons of the sweetener since the season began in April, up 4.4% over last year.Raw sugar for Oc- tober slid 2.4% to 14.52 cents a pound, the lowest settlement since June 7, 2010, for the most actively traded sugar contract on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange. At the current inter- national rate of around $320 a tonne, the Government may have to hike the subsidy to around ₹6,000 a tonne to make raw sugar shipments viable. For August and September, the Government had fixed the export subsidy at 3,371 , but hardly any shipments are happen- ing now. Castor seed prices fell by 0.08 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of fresh supply of the commodity in the major mandies as well as strong production estimates. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for Sep- tember 2014 contract was trading at Rs. 3,990 per quintal tonnes, down by 0.08 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,985 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,993. It touched the in- tra-day low of Rs. 3,980 till the trading.
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NEWS RECAP
COMMODITY HEADLINES India IIP slips 0.5%, CPI dips 7.8% and low farm productivity. Steady rise in kharif sowing: 100 million hectares acreage so far. South Africa urged to import more agri commodities from India. India farm subsidy yet to cross WTO limit. Falling global sugar prices pose threat to Indian exports. NCDEX open interest up 31% in Aug, Castor seed, Ref Soy oil, Soybean toppers. Strong arrivals drag down Castor seed futures. India will oust China as top cotton producer this year. Chana To Gather Fresh Buying From Lower Levels. Good news for winter crops: Rain deficit narrows to 11% from 13% last week. Sugar sector hits panic button as global prices fall.
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FUNDAMENTAL & MANDI NEWS
CASTOSEED Castor seed expected in cash and future market continued to decline and more dip is expected in the weeks ahead. Area under castor may cross 10 lakh ha this year. Some damage report from Gujarat is not going to influence price as seed stock is said to be ample at this point of time. Weak demand in domestic and international market remains unsupportive to the cashmarket fundamentals. Almost 90 percent area under castor seed has been covered so far. As on 5th sept, area was re- corded at 9.27 lakh ha. against 7.55 lakh ha last year till corresponding period. Overall area so far is around 1.7 lakh ha. higher than last year in sept first week. Sowing of castor seed is continues in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh and some parts of Rajasthan. Castor seed x-mandi price in Gujarat has declined from Rs 40900 per tonne to Rs 40500 per tonne at previous trading session. Fresh buying at this level is expected and it may support price to some extent. Despite decline in prices, it is still higher from the price prevalent in Sept, 2013, almost 17.82 percent lower than current price. Castor meal FOR is be- ing quoted at Rs 6200 per tonne, moderately lower (Rs 6250 per tonne) than previous week.
CHANA Chana futures fell on hopes of bumper production from the winter-sown crop due to good rainfall in the top producing state of Madhya Pradesh.The October contract closed -0.07 percent lower at 2,806 rupees per 100 kg .ØPulses market no- ticed steady to weak tone ,According to the Central Water Commission (CWC), current live storage of water in main res- ervoirs of India ason 11 September this year is 119.785 BCM, which is 77% of the live capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Due to weak monsoon rains this year the same has fallen by 6% compared to the previous year which was 83% during the same period. Although the late revival of monsoon has raised the storage by 6% compared to the previous week and 5% compared to 10 years average.NAFED issued tender on September 09, to sell 2000 metric tonnes of Urad ly- ing at different SWC/CWC warehouse in the state of Uttar Pradesh. The actual rainfall recorded at 675.3 mm against the 761.7 mm of normal rainfall-IMD.
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