SlideShare a Scribd company logo
UnicornHuntr:	
  Predict	
  the	
  success	
  of	
  early-­‐stage	
  startups	
  
Yun	
  Lee	
  +	
  
There	
  were	
  514,000	
  new	
  business	
  owners	
  in	
  2012	
  	
  
…but	
  half	
  of	
  all	
  businesses	
  fail	
  within	
  five	
  years	
  
−	
  U.S.	
  Bureau	
  of	
  Labor	
  StaKsKcs	
  
Random	
  forest	
  classifier	
  
•  Train/validate:	
  2+	
  year-­‐old	
  startups	
  (n	
  =	
  4565)	
  
•  Predict:	
  new	
  startups	
  (n	
  =	
  1760)	
  
	
  
Numerical	
  features	
  
•  expansion	
  rate	
  
•  total	
  pre	
  series-­‐A	
  funding	
  
	
  
Categorical	
  features	
  
•  industries	
  
•  business	
  models	
  
•  locaHon	
  
5-­‐fold	
  cross	
  validaKon	
  
accuracy	
  =	
  0.8	
  
Mobile	
  
E-­‐commerce	
  
PharmaceuKcals	
  
Lending,	
  Tech	
  support	
  
Biotechnology	
  
Drones	
  
Health	
  insurance	
  
Medical	
  diagnosKcs	
  
Yun	
  Lee,	
  Ph.D.	
  
Insight	
  Data	
  Science	
  Fellow	
  

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Insight-week4demo-v3

  • 1. UnicornHuntr:  Predict  the  success  of  early-­‐stage  startups   Yun  Lee  +  
  • 2. There  were  514,000  new  business  owners  in  2012     …but  half  of  all  businesses  fail  within  five  years   −  U.S.  Bureau  of  Labor  StaKsKcs  
  • 3. Random  forest  classifier   •  Train/validate:  2+  year-­‐old  startups  (n  =  4565)   •  Predict:  new  startups  (n  =  1760)     Numerical  features   •  expansion  rate   •  total  pre  series-­‐A  funding     Categorical  features   •  industries   •  business  models   •  locaHon  
  • 4.
  • 5. 5-­‐fold  cross  validaKon   accuracy  =  0.8  
  • 6. Mobile   E-­‐commerce   PharmaceuKcals   Lending,  Tech  support   Biotechnology   Drones   Health  insurance   Medical  diagnosKcs  
  • 7. Yun  Lee,  Ph.D.   Insight  Data  Science  Fellow