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Health equals wealth:
The global longevity dividend
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
Welcome and
introduction
David Sinclair, Director, ILC
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#LongevityDividend
Report launch: Health equals wealth
The global longevity dividend
Sophia Dimitriadis, Research Fellow, ILC
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#LongevityDividend
Key messages
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
• Far from being a cost to the public
purse, older people’s economic
contributions are significant – and
growing
• Good health underpins a longevity
dividend
• To unlock the economic potential of an
ageing society, we need to invest at
least 6% in preventative health
People are increasingly working at older ages
and catching up with younger workers
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
• 65% of people aged 50
to 69 could be in work
by 2035
• Large increases in EU-
28, Australia, Germany
& Japan. Opposite
trends in India,
Turkey & Brazil
• Benefits all generations
Older people are accounting for a growing
share of the workforce
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
• ~30%
of the
workforce is
aged 50+
• This could
be 40% by
2035
Older people are earning more
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
• Every third dollar is
earned by people
aged 50+
• By 2035, older people
could generate 40%
of all earnings
Older workers’ earnings growing in importance to
the economy in nearly all EU countries
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
Look to Iceland: Enabling
older people to work at same
rates as Iceland could mean
3.7 trillion USD GDP gain
(~7% of GDP).
Older people’s spending & consumer market
share is rising
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
• Older households' spending
averages 56% of total
spending (22% of GDP)
• This grew by 9% and
market share rose from
54% to 56% (2010 to 2015)
Our economies are
increasingly reliant on older
consumers.
Older people’s spending represents a global
export opportunity
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
In 2015, older households spent
USD 9.7tn > GDP of Japan,
Australia, Canada & Brazil
combined.
Fastest growing sectors serving
older consumers include:
• Housing & utilities
• Recreation & culture
• Transport
• Health
Adults aged 65+ spend more time volunteering
or caring than other ages
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
Unpaid contributions of older people worth
more than EU spending on defence
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
• Ages 50+ unpaid contribution
in the EU and Turkey average
1.4% of GDP (>EU defence
spending) & ages
65+ average 0.7% of GDP
• Unpaid contributions at ages
65+ often exceed market
contributions
Good health enables both market & non-
market activities
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
• Older people in better health, who have good cognition, are not limited in
daily activities & report being in good health, are more likely, (once relevant
factors have been controlled for):
• to be in work
• volunteer often (and spend more time on this)
• spend more
• Pattern is found across countries
Health underpins a longevity dividend
Health underpins a longevity dividend
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
• Employment and spending rates at older
ages are higher in countries that:
• spend more on health as a % of GDP
• have higher flu vaccination rates
• have healthier older populations
• Older people spend more
time volunteering in countries that:
• spend more on health as a % of GDP
• older people are heathier.
• & looking after grandchildren in countries
with healthier older populations
Prevention not only lowers treatment costs;
it supports the wider economy
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
Increasing prevention
spend by 0.1pp could
unlock a 9% increase in
spending by older people
per year & 10 more
volunteer hours per
older person each year.
Investing in prevention pays for itself
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
McKinsey estimate an
economic return of $2-$4
for each $1 invested
in improving global health.
But spending on prevention is low, health
inequalities high & policies fragmented
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
We need to do more
• Preventative health spending low: Canada invests 6% of health budget
on prevention, but in most G20 economies <2.5%
• Health inequalities are wide & growing in some countries (e.g. UK and the
US)
• COVID has strengthened the case for investing in prevention
• G20 commitments on ageing constitute only 0.35% of all G20’s
commitments
We need a more coherent and structured approach
It’s time for an Ageing Society New Deal
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
1. Invest in health and recognise its economic value
• Increase spending on preventing poor health (at least 6% of health
budgets)
• Tackle health inequalities
• Complement GDP with a measure which factors in health &
inclusion
2. Support work in an ageing and changing world
• Incentivise employers & technology prodders to reduce the barriers
to working in later life
• Support & empower all generations to have fulfilling & longer
working lives
• Invest in lifelong learning ‘multi-stage life’
It’s time for an Ageing Society New Deal
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
3. Unlock opportunities to tap into older people’s growing power as
consumers
• Develop strategies to support businesses to capture an ageing
consumer market
• Reduce barriers to spending in local communities
4. Recognise and support unpaid contributions
• Recognise and measure unpaid contributions & social/econ benefits
• Support informal carers and involved grandparents
• Enable & incentivise volunteering at all ages
Conclusion
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
• Far from being a cost to the public purse, older people’s
economic contributions are significant – and growing
• Good health underpins a longevity dividend: health = wealth
• Ageing policy is fragmented, we need an Ageing Society New Deal
COVID offers a unique moment to prioritise health.
Let's raise the funds today to realise a longevity dividend tomorrow.
Panel presentations
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
Hon Dr Zweli Mkhize
Minister of Health, South Africa
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
Eric D. Hargan
Deputy Secretary of Health and Human
Services, US
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gCI3AQ2s2Q&feature=youtu.be
Dubravka Šuica
Vice-President for Democracy and
Demography, European Commission
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkaUMFnMF58&feature=youtu.be
Mark Pearson
Deputy Director of Employment, Labour and
Social Affairs, OECD
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
Population ageing presents economic and social challenges
The number of non-working
people aged 50+ per 100
workers will increase from 42
to more than 58 by 2050 in
OECD countries
Health expenditure will
continue to rise if current
trends continue
2015 2030
8.7
10.3% of GDP
:
2018
:
2050
Men and women in bad health
work less and earn less.
60
80
100
120
140
20 40 60
Normalizedhourlyearningsformen
Age
"Good" or "Very good" health
"Fair", "Bad" or "Very bad" health
Invest in prevention
policies
Halting further rises in obesity
rates could reduce premature
mortality by 1.3% annually
among people 50-70…
…averting 4.3 million premature
deaths between 2020 and 2050
in G20 countries
Promote integrated,
patient-centred care
Strengthen health and LTC
systems
The number of older persons in
need of LTC will increase by 50%
between 2015 and 2030
2015 2030
200 million
300 million
58% of adults 65+ live with at least
two chronic diseases…
…compared with just 24% of
adults under 65
Promote employability
throughout working lives
Retain and hire older
workers
Workers aged 55-64 accounted
for 17% of total employment but
only 10% of recent hires in 2018
in OECD G20 countries
Older workers participate in
training far less than younger
adults in G20 OECD countries
24 %
47 %
Younger adults
(25-34)
Older adults
(55-64)
12%
17%
10%
13%
U18 18-25 26-40 41-50 51-65 66-75 75+
2010s
1980s
The relative poverty rate has
declined among adults aged
66+ in recent decades
Life in old age has
improved (for some)
Gustavo Demarco
Lead Economist and Pensions Global Lead,
The World Bank
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
Q&A
Please submit your questions to panellists
via the Q&A tab
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
Closing remarks
David Sinclair, Director, ILC
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
What happens next
Read the full report online:
https://ilcuk.org.uk/HealthEqualsWealth
Want to get involved in our follow-up activity?
Get in touch with LilyParsey@ilcuk.org.uk
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
Future of Ageing 2020:
Together for tomorrow
Date: Thursday, 3 December 2020
Time: 9.00am - 5.30pm
Speakers include: Sir Michael Marmot,
Sir Andrew Dilnot and Cat Smith MP
Register at: futureofageing.org.uk
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend
futureofageing.org.uk
Thank you
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#LongevityDividend

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Virtual report launch – Health equals wealth: The global longevity dividend

  • 1. Health equals wealth: The global longevity dividend Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend
  • 2. Welcome and introduction David Sinclair, Director, ILC Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend
  • 3. Report launch: Health equals wealth The global longevity dividend Sophia Dimitriadis, Research Fellow, ILC Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend
  • 4. Key messages Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend • Far from being a cost to the public purse, older people’s economic contributions are significant – and growing • Good health underpins a longevity dividend • To unlock the economic potential of an ageing society, we need to invest at least 6% in preventative health
  • 5. People are increasingly working at older ages and catching up with younger workers Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend • 65% of people aged 50 to 69 could be in work by 2035 • Large increases in EU- 28, Australia, Germany & Japan. Opposite trends in India, Turkey & Brazil • Benefits all generations
  • 6. Older people are accounting for a growing share of the workforce Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend • ~30% of the workforce is aged 50+ • This could be 40% by 2035
  • 7. Older people are earning more Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend • Every third dollar is earned by people aged 50+ • By 2035, older people could generate 40% of all earnings
  • 8. Older workers’ earnings growing in importance to the economy in nearly all EU countries Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend Look to Iceland: Enabling older people to work at same rates as Iceland could mean 3.7 trillion USD GDP gain (~7% of GDP).
  • 9. Older people’s spending & consumer market share is rising Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend • Older households' spending averages 56% of total spending (22% of GDP) • This grew by 9% and market share rose from 54% to 56% (2010 to 2015) Our economies are increasingly reliant on older consumers.
  • 10. Older people’s spending represents a global export opportunity Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend In 2015, older households spent USD 9.7tn > GDP of Japan, Australia, Canada & Brazil combined. Fastest growing sectors serving older consumers include: • Housing & utilities • Recreation & culture • Transport • Health
  • 11. Adults aged 65+ spend more time volunteering or caring than other ages Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend
  • 12. Unpaid contributions of older people worth more than EU spending on defence Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend • Ages 50+ unpaid contribution in the EU and Turkey average 1.4% of GDP (>EU defence spending) & ages 65+ average 0.7% of GDP • Unpaid contributions at ages 65+ often exceed market contributions
  • 13. Good health enables both market & non- market activities Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend • Older people in better health, who have good cognition, are not limited in daily activities & report being in good health, are more likely, (once relevant factors have been controlled for): • to be in work • volunteer often (and spend more time on this) • spend more • Pattern is found across countries Health underpins a longevity dividend
  • 14. Health underpins a longevity dividend Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend • Employment and spending rates at older ages are higher in countries that: • spend more on health as a % of GDP • have higher flu vaccination rates • have healthier older populations • Older people spend more time volunteering in countries that: • spend more on health as a % of GDP • older people are heathier. • & looking after grandchildren in countries with healthier older populations
  • 15. Prevention not only lowers treatment costs; it supports the wider economy Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend Increasing prevention spend by 0.1pp could unlock a 9% increase in spending by older people per year & 10 more volunteer hours per older person each year.
  • 16. Investing in prevention pays for itself Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend McKinsey estimate an economic return of $2-$4 for each $1 invested in improving global health.
  • 17. But spending on prevention is low, health inequalities high & policies fragmented Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend We need to do more • Preventative health spending low: Canada invests 6% of health budget on prevention, but in most G20 economies <2.5% • Health inequalities are wide & growing in some countries (e.g. UK and the US) • COVID has strengthened the case for investing in prevention • G20 commitments on ageing constitute only 0.35% of all G20’s commitments We need a more coherent and structured approach
  • 18. It’s time for an Ageing Society New Deal Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend 1. Invest in health and recognise its economic value • Increase spending on preventing poor health (at least 6% of health budgets) • Tackle health inequalities • Complement GDP with a measure which factors in health & inclusion 2. Support work in an ageing and changing world • Incentivise employers & technology prodders to reduce the barriers to working in later life • Support & empower all generations to have fulfilling & longer working lives • Invest in lifelong learning ‘multi-stage life’
  • 19. It’s time for an Ageing Society New Deal Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend 3. Unlock opportunities to tap into older people’s growing power as consumers • Develop strategies to support businesses to capture an ageing consumer market • Reduce barriers to spending in local communities 4. Recognise and support unpaid contributions • Recognise and measure unpaid contributions & social/econ benefits • Support informal carers and involved grandparents • Enable & incentivise volunteering at all ages
  • 20. Conclusion Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend • Far from being a cost to the public purse, older people’s economic contributions are significant – and growing • Good health underpins a longevity dividend: health = wealth • Ageing policy is fragmented, we need an Ageing Society New Deal COVID offers a unique moment to prioritise health. Let's raise the funds today to realise a longevity dividend tomorrow.
  • 21. Panel presentations Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend
  • 22. Hon Dr Zweli Mkhize Minister of Health, South Africa Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend
  • 23. Eric D. Hargan Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services, US Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend
  • 25. Dubravka Šuica Vice-President for Democracy and Demography, European Commission Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend
  • 27. Mark Pearson Deputy Director of Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend
  • 28. Population ageing presents economic and social challenges The number of non-working people aged 50+ per 100 workers will increase from 42 to more than 58 by 2050 in OECD countries Health expenditure will continue to rise if current trends continue 2015 2030 8.7 10.3% of GDP : 2018 : 2050 Men and women in bad health work less and earn less. 60 80 100 120 140 20 40 60 Normalizedhourlyearningsformen Age "Good" or "Very good" health "Fair", "Bad" or "Very bad" health
  • 29. Invest in prevention policies Halting further rises in obesity rates could reduce premature mortality by 1.3% annually among people 50-70… …averting 4.3 million premature deaths between 2020 and 2050 in G20 countries Promote integrated, patient-centred care Strengthen health and LTC systems The number of older persons in need of LTC will increase by 50% between 2015 and 2030 2015 2030 200 million 300 million 58% of adults 65+ live with at least two chronic diseases… …compared with just 24% of adults under 65
  • 30. Promote employability throughout working lives Retain and hire older workers Workers aged 55-64 accounted for 17% of total employment but only 10% of recent hires in 2018 in OECD G20 countries Older workers participate in training far less than younger adults in G20 OECD countries 24 % 47 % Younger adults (25-34) Older adults (55-64) 12% 17% 10% 13% U18 18-25 26-40 41-50 51-65 66-75 75+ 2010s 1980s The relative poverty rate has declined among adults aged 66+ in recent decades Life in old age has improved (for some)
  • 31. Gustavo Demarco Lead Economist and Pensions Global Lead, The World Bank Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend
  • 32. Q&A Please submit your questions to panellists via the Q&A tab Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend
  • 33. Closing remarks David Sinclair, Director, ILC Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend
  • 34. What happens next Read the full report online: https://ilcuk.org.uk/HealthEqualsWealth Want to get involved in our follow-up activity? Get in touch with LilyParsey@ilcuk.org.uk Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend
  • 35. Future of Ageing 2020: Together for tomorrow Date: Thursday, 3 December 2020 Time: 9.00am - 5.30pm Speakers include: Sir Michael Marmot, Sir Andrew Dilnot and Cat Smith MP Register at: futureofageing.org.uk Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend futureofageing.org.uk
  • 36. Thank you Join the conversation: @ilcuk #LongevityDividend

Editor's Notes

  1. Growing employment rates in most countries (at ages 50 to 64 and ages 65 to 69) Falls in some countries – e.g. India, China and Brazil Improvements in health &  increased financial necessity to work Benefit all generations
  2. Workforce is ageing in ALL COUNTRIES.  - could be 40% in G20 – but 60% in Korea... gov and busiensses when thinking about making workforce productive – how can they support older wokers... INTEER GENERATIONS… - older people working… integernational (also reliant on older worker)…. COVID -  (can benefit younger workers)…. 
  3. NEED TO CORRECT GRAPH ON THE RIGHT TO 206 TO 2014! (send email in evening)… (becoming more important to the economy. If we want to support income – cannot ignore this group…) – but mostly growing in countries where employment rates are growing – so longer working lives… (ore olde rpeopel is fixed – but we can determine their economic impact)…
  4. NEED TO CORRECT GRAPH ON THE RIGHT TO 206 TO 2014! (send email in evening)… (becoming more important to the economy. If we want to support income – cannot ignore this group…) – but mostly growing in countries where employment rates are growing – so longer working lives… (ore olde rpeopel is fixed – but we can determine their economic impact)…
  5. NEED TO CORRECT GRAPH ON THE RIGHT TO 206 TO 2014! (send email in evening)… (becoming more important to the economy. If we want to support income – cannot ignore this group…) – but mostly growing in countries where employment rates are growing – so longer working lives… (ore olde rpeopel is fixed – but we can determine their economic impact)…
  6. Huge business opp Older households’ (aged 50+)spending averaged 22% of GDP in 2015 across the G20; on aggregate this amounted to USD 9,669 billionb – more than the combined GDP of Japan, Australia, Canada and Brazil.
  7. Older people add significant value to their communities by undertaking unpaid contributions, such as volunteering, informal care-giving and looking after grandchildren. • While people’s market contributions fall significantly after the age of 65, in the G20 countries studied, they spend more time volunteering and caring for adult household members than the average across all other age groups.
  8. But despite the already substantial positive economic impact of older people – we can maximise this further. These contributions vary considerably across countries – which means there are opportunities to learn from best practice. In particular, differences in health may be a key factor in explaining this variation.
  9. But despite the already substantial positive economic impact of older people – we can maximise this further. These contributions vary considerably across countries – which means there are opportunities to learn from best practice. In particular, differences in health may be a key factor in explaining this variation.
  10. The economic return could be $2 to $4 for each $1 invested in better health.
  11. The economic return could be $2 to $4 for each $1 invested in better health.
  12. Add mckinsey figures! – and a key stat here! This is possible! – cost effective… (neeed to focus on prevention – and not forget – other figure)… Japan – national council but not enough!
  13. The prevalence of dementia in OECD countries could rise from 19 million to 41 million in 2050.
  14. We have an actively engaged network of experts, policy makers and practitioners, including long standing relations with UCL; our first partner
  15. We have an actively engaged network of experts, policy makers and practitioners, including long standing relations with UCL; our first partner