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Pandemics and longevity: Will we die,
survive, or thrive next time?
Better Preparedness – better results
Prof. Itamar Grotto, MD, MPH, PhD, Ben Gurion University, Israel
International Public Health expert and senior adviser
March 2023
Next pandemic is not a question of “if?”
but a question of “when?”
• New agent
• Mutation of known agent
• Change of virulence of an endemic agent
• What lessons can we take for the COVID?
Global effect
(March 2023)
COVID19 Pandemic timeline – In Israel
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
02-03-2020
16-03-2020
30-03-2020
13-04-2020
27-04-2020
11-05-2020
25-05-2020
08-06-2020
22-06-2020
06-07-2020
20-07-2020
03-08-2020
17-08-2020
31-08-2020
14-09-2020
28-09-2020
12-10-2020
26-10-2020
09-11-2020
23-11-2020
07-12-2020
21-12-2020
04-01-2021
18-01-2021
01-02-2021
15-02-2021
01-03-2021
15-03-2021
29-03-2021
12-04-2021
26-04-2021
10-05-2021
24-05-2021
07-06-2021
21-06-2021
05-07-2021
19-07-2021
02-08-2021
16-08-2021
30-08-2021
13-09-2021
27-09-2021
11-10-2021
25-10-2021
08-11-2021
22-11-2021
06-12-2021
20-12-2021
03-01-2022
17-01-2022
31-01-2022
14-02-2022
28-02-2022
14-03-2022
28-03-2022
11-04-2022
25-04-2022
09-05-2022
23-05-2022
06-06-2022
20-06-2022
04-07-2022
18-07-2022
01-08-2022
15-08-2022
29-08-2022
12-09-2022
26-09-2022
10-10-2022
24-10-2022
07-11-2022
21-11-2022
05-12-2022
19-12-2022
02-01-2023
16-01-2023
30-01-2023
13-02-2023
27-02-2023
13-03-2023
Hospitalized patients 03/20-03/23
Mild Moderate Severe
COVID19 Pandemic timeline – In Israel
0
5
10
15
20
25
18-01-2021
31-01-2021
12-02-2021
24-02-2021
06-03-2021
18-03-2021
30-03-2021
11-04-2021
25-04-2021
06-05-2021
18-05-2021
29-05-2021
12-06-2021
23-06-2021
05-07-2021
17-07-2021
28-07-2021
09-08-2021
23-08-2021
04-09-2021
15-09-2021
27-09-2021
08-10-2021
22-10-2021
01-11-2021
14-11-2021
25-11-2021
09-12-2021
20-12-2021
01-01-2022
12-01-2022
26-01-2022
07-02-2022
17-02-2022
01-03-2022
13-03-2022
25-03-2022
08-04-2022
20-04-2022
01-05-2022
13-05-2022
24-05-2022
07-06-2022
18-06-2022
01-07-2022
13-07-2022
25-07-2022
04-08-2022
18-08-2022
29-08-2022
11-09-2022
22-09-2022
03-10-2022
17-10-2022
28-10-2022
10-11-2022
21-11-2022
04-12-2022
14-12-2022
26-12-2022
09-01-2023
21-01-2023
02-02-2023
12-02-2023
26-02-2023
10-03-2023
Mortality by vaccination status, >60 years, incidence per 100,000
Vaccinated Not-vaccinated
Phase 1:
“Old Public Health”
• Personal and
environmental hygiene
• PPE including face masks
• Infection control
Phase 2: Test and protect
New diagnostic approaches
New clinical diagnostic tools Wastewater surveillance
Vaccine development and challenges
Green pass
Phase 0 – what can we do now?
• Prevention
• Vaccination: Influenza, pneumococcal vaccines, COVID
• Health promotion
• Quit Smoking
• Physical Activity
• Balanced diet
• Preparedness
• Technology: Rapid (new) testing methods, vaccines
• Planning and trains: Rapid re-organization, home care

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Prof Itamar Grotto - Better preparedness, better results

  • 1. Pandemics and longevity: Will we die, survive, or thrive next time? Better Preparedness – better results Prof. Itamar Grotto, MD, MPH, PhD, Ben Gurion University, Israel International Public Health expert and senior adviser March 2023
  • 2. Next pandemic is not a question of “if?” but a question of “when?” • New agent • Mutation of known agent • Change of virulence of an endemic agent • What lessons can we take for the COVID?
  • 3.
  • 5. COVID19 Pandemic timeline – In Israel 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 02-03-2020 16-03-2020 30-03-2020 13-04-2020 27-04-2020 11-05-2020 25-05-2020 08-06-2020 22-06-2020 06-07-2020 20-07-2020 03-08-2020 17-08-2020 31-08-2020 14-09-2020 28-09-2020 12-10-2020 26-10-2020 09-11-2020 23-11-2020 07-12-2020 21-12-2020 04-01-2021 18-01-2021 01-02-2021 15-02-2021 01-03-2021 15-03-2021 29-03-2021 12-04-2021 26-04-2021 10-05-2021 24-05-2021 07-06-2021 21-06-2021 05-07-2021 19-07-2021 02-08-2021 16-08-2021 30-08-2021 13-09-2021 27-09-2021 11-10-2021 25-10-2021 08-11-2021 22-11-2021 06-12-2021 20-12-2021 03-01-2022 17-01-2022 31-01-2022 14-02-2022 28-02-2022 14-03-2022 28-03-2022 11-04-2022 25-04-2022 09-05-2022 23-05-2022 06-06-2022 20-06-2022 04-07-2022 18-07-2022 01-08-2022 15-08-2022 29-08-2022 12-09-2022 26-09-2022 10-10-2022 24-10-2022 07-11-2022 21-11-2022 05-12-2022 19-12-2022 02-01-2023 16-01-2023 30-01-2023 13-02-2023 27-02-2023 13-03-2023 Hospitalized patients 03/20-03/23 Mild Moderate Severe
  • 6. COVID19 Pandemic timeline – In Israel 0 5 10 15 20 25 18-01-2021 31-01-2021 12-02-2021 24-02-2021 06-03-2021 18-03-2021 30-03-2021 11-04-2021 25-04-2021 06-05-2021 18-05-2021 29-05-2021 12-06-2021 23-06-2021 05-07-2021 17-07-2021 28-07-2021 09-08-2021 23-08-2021 04-09-2021 15-09-2021 27-09-2021 08-10-2021 22-10-2021 01-11-2021 14-11-2021 25-11-2021 09-12-2021 20-12-2021 01-01-2022 12-01-2022 26-01-2022 07-02-2022 17-02-2022 01-03-2022 13-03-2022 25-03-2022 08-04-2022 20-04-2022 01-05-2022 13-05-2022 24-05-2022 07-06-2022 18-06-2022 01-07-2022 13-07-2022 25-07-2022 04-08-2022 18-08-2022 29-08-2022 11-09-2022 22-09-2022 03-10-2022 17-10-2022 28-10-2022 10-11-2022 21-11-2022 04-12-2022 14-12-2022 26-12-2022 09-01-2023 21-01-2023 02-02-2023 12-02-2023 26-02-2023 10-03-2023 Mortality by vaccination status, >60 years, incidence per 100,000 Vaccinated Not-vaccinated
  • 7. Phase 1: “Old Public Health” • Personal and environmental hygiene • PPE including face masks • Infection control
  • 8. Phase 2: Test and protect
  • 9. New diagnostic approaches New clinical diagnostic tools Wastewater surveillance
  • 10.
  • 13. Phase 0 – what can we do now? • Prevention • Vaccination: Influenza, pneumococcal vaccines, COVID • Health promotion • Quit Smoking • Physical Activity • Balanced diet • Preparedness • Technology: Rapid (new) testing methods, vaccines • Planning and trains: Rapid re-organization, home care