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Verizon Communications, Inc.
NYSE: VZ
Recommendation: HOLD
Robby Sveda & Alex Tullman
Investment Thesis
2
Recommendation:
Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is undervalued with respect to its substantial long-term upside as 5G
technology revolutionizes the telecom sector.
Rationale:
Verizon’s wireless network is the leader in 5G innovation. This technology will increase wireless
revenues by 3.5% and open additional revenue streams, such as IOT. Verizon also has the stickiest
customer base of major telecommunications companies, reducing potential downside.
1
2
3 IOT has potential to be a significant source of entirely new revenue
5G will increase revenue from wireless customers
Sustained market share and stickiness of revenues (lowest churn)
Price Target: $68.21
25.2% upside to current price of $54.50
Industry Overview
3
Overview Verizon is a Market Leader
Annual Mobile Data Usage Worldwide 4G Wireless Network U.S. Coverage as % of Land
• 95% of US adults own a cellphone
• 77% own a smartphone
• Wireless connectivity continues to expand globally
• US companies poised to expand internationally
• Both AT&T and Verizon have diversified and expanded into other
media outlets (i.e. DirecTV, Fios, Oath)
• AT&T and Verizon are both beginning planning for testing of 5G
• Verizon poised to test
• AT&T currently getting sued by Sprint
• New competition fro Cricket Wireless in the US
Verizon
35%
AT&T
34%
T-Mobile
18%
Sprint
12%
43
73
144
242
366
516
701
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021*
ThousandPetabytes
70.0%
59.0% 58.0%
27.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Verizon AT&T T-Mobile Sprint
Company Overview
4
Company Profile Historical Stock Chart
Acquisitions Overview Revenue Breakdown ($ in millions)
• Verizon is the industry leader for telecommunications
• Verizon has two main revenue streams
• Service Revenue
• Wireless Equipment sales
• Other sources of revenue include wireline cable, Fios
• Heavily invested in the development of 5G connectivity
• Currently testing in Sacramento, Los Angeles, Houston,
and Indianapolis
• Dividend/yield of 4.46%
• Has an established group of customers developing software on
hosted servers, Thingspace 0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
6-Feb-14 6-Feb-15 6-Feb-16 6-Feb-17 6-Feb-18
Millions
Volume Adj Close**
$116,122 $114,696 $108,468 $107,145 $108,605
$10,957 $16,957 $17,512 $18,889 $22,258
$127,079 $131,653
$125,980 $126,034 $130,863
$0.0
$25,000.0
$50,000.0
$75,000.0
$100,000.0
$125,000.0
$150,000.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Service Revenues and Other Wireless Equipment
CAGR: 0.7%
 Verizon has expanded into the media outlet business with
acquisitions of AOL (2015) and Yahoo (2017), for $4.4 billion
and $4.1 billion, respectively.
 Together, these companies formed Oath, which is now
known as Verizon Media Group
 Includes Yahoo, Huff Post, Tumblr, Engadget
 $4.6 billion goodwill impairment in 2017
 Projected revenue of $10 billion by 2020, but
underwhelmed with $1.8 billion in 2018
• Purchased 45% of Vodafone in 2014
• $130 billion to buy Vodafone out of Verizon’s U.S.
wireless business
Sustained market share and stickiness of revenues
5
Industry Stability Postpaid Monthly Churn Rates (%)
Quarterly Users (Millions)
1
• Wireless connectivity and telecom services are only going to
grow
• World is becoming increasingly dependent on wireless
service for day-to-day life. Verizon has extremely loyal
customers, evidenced by having the lowest post-paid
churn rate due to their consistent service and quality
• Customers cite network reliability as the reason they
stay
• Verizon 2.0: “The realignment of our operations to better focus
on our customers. This new operating model realigns our
customer-facing units into consumer, business and Verizon
Media Group.”
• Low Beta due to saturation of the telecom industry
1.0 1.1
1.2
1.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Verizon AT&T T-Mobile Sprint
146 147 149 150 151 153 154
134
137 139
142 144 147
150
73 70 71 73 74 76 77
59
53 53 54 54 54 54
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18
Verizon Wireless
AT&T
T-Mobile USA
Sprint Nextel
Verizon’s low churn rate demonstrate the company’s ability to
retain customers and minimize revenue volatility
5G will increase revenue from wireless customers
6
5G Technology
Towers
2
 5G technology will be faster and lower latency than 4G
 As much as 1,000X faster than 4G
 Low latency allows for better voice, video, and cloud
applications (IOT)
 Allows for more users at one time (bandwidth)
 Fast enough to compete with cable internet for business of
corporations
 Faster than most cable internet
 Cheaper and faster to implement
• Verizon sold rights to 1,324 wireless communications towers to
American tower in 2015
• American Tower will have the rights to operate them for
28 years
• Verizon has contracted to sublease space on the towers for a
minimum of 10 years with monthly rent of $1,900 per site and
fixed annual rent escalators of 2%.
• While this price increase presents a risk for Verizon, the
revenue generated by selling more towers through 5G
should offset the risk.
Monetizing 5G in Wireless
 5G technology will be available for cellphones by first half of
2019 and should have universal support by 2020
 5G will require phones with compatible chips,
resulting in significantly high activations of new
devices
 Cisco projects wireless bills to rise 57% in 2019 based upon
the dramatic difference in speed between 4G and 5G
 Verizon’s customers have been loyal because of
network quality, likely to pay the 5G premium
48
46
41
38
35
47
42
39
37
34
38
36
35 34 34
44
40
36
33
31
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017
Verizon, adj AT&T T-Moble, adj Sprint, adj
Wireless Service ARPU
Internet of Things (IOT) expansion of revenues
7
What is included in IOT?
Internet Connected Devices (in Billions)
3
 “The interconnection via the internet, of computing devices
embedded in everyday objects, enabling them to send and
receive data.”
 With the introduction of 5G, more devices will be able to
connect to the internet
 Cars
 Driverless Cars
 Home appliances (fridge, oven, etc.)
 Lightbulbs
 Children’s toys
 Thermostats
 Door locks
Revenue from IOT
 Verizon has begun advertising to partner with businesses to
provide them greater interconnectivity
 On the 4G LTE network, 1,000+ IOT partners
 $1.5 Billion in revenue in 2017
 14,000+ developers hosted on ThingSpace platform
 1GB-$20/year (+$1/device/month)
 4G LTE does not come close to meeting the need
 More subscriptions to ThingSpace
 More businesses partnering with Verizon
 More devices that need connectivity
 More revenue
15.4 17.7 20.4 23.1 26.7
30.7
35.8
42.6
51.1
62.1
75.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Key Risks
8
 Largest market share of all competitors
 Most loyal customers
 Telecommunications tend to fair well,
comparatively, during recessions
 Were not the first to unveil 4G and did not lose
many customers
 Verizon Media Group, formerly Oath, is
supposed to turn a profit for the first time ever
this year
 Laying off employees continues to cut costs
 Already has customers developing software for
IoT
 Revenue concentration – 100% of wireless
revenue comes from US
 Competition in the development of 5G network
 Macro economic risk, market/trade tensions
causing the markets to be suppressed
 Loss of wireless equipment sales, companies like
Apple and Samsung going DTC
 Cost of increasing bandwidth across US will be
significant, needs to be partnered with high
revenues
 Cricket may take market share if there is a
recession
 Not meeting demand and losing industrial
customers to AT&T
Key Risks Mitigants
Final Recommendation
9
Recommendation:
Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is undervalued with respect to its substantial long-term upside as
5G technology revolutionizes the telecom sector.
Base Case
Price Target: $68.21
Upside: 25.2%
Upside Case
Price Target: $80.14
Upside: 47.1%
Downside Case
Price Target: $39.29
Upside: -27.9%
Appendix
10
Valuation – Comparable Companies Analysis
11
Market Enterprise EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA Price / Earnings
Company Ticker Capitalization Value 2017A LTM 2017A LTM 2017A LTM
AT&T Inc. T $217,076 $388,377 2.1x 2.4x 7.3x 8.5x 7.3x 18.7x
Comcast Corporation CMCS.A 168,547 276,476 2.8x 3.3x 8.7x 10.0x 8.7x 19.2x
Sprint Corporation S 25,041 58,102 1.9x 1.7x 6.0x 5.6x 6.0x NM
T-Mobile US, Inc. TMUS 59,175 88,076 1.9x 2.2x 7.2x 8.2x 7.2x 24.9x
CenturyLink, Inc. CTL 15,724 51,861 2.9x 2.9x 8.4x 8.6x 8.4x 28.7x
Verizon Communications Inc. VZ $224,863 $335,181 2.5193793 2.7x 6.7x 7.1x 6.7x 13.6x
Low $15,724 $51,861 1.9x 1.7x 6.0x 5.6x 6.0x 18.7x
Mean 97,113 172,578 2.3x 2.5x 7.5x 8.2x 7.5x 22.9x
Median 59,175 88,076 2.1x 2.4x 7.3x 8.5x 7.3x 22.0x
High 217,076 388,377 2.9x 3.3x 8.7x 10.0x 8.7x 28.7x
Operating Statistics
Revenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Margin
Company Ticker 2017A LTM '16-'17A LTM 2017A LTM 2017A LTM
AT&T Inc. T $160,546 $160,546 (2.0%) 6.4% $45,440 $45,440 28.3% 28.3%
Comcast Corporation CMCS.A 85,029 85,029 5.3% 11.1% 27,706 27,706 32.6% 32.6%
Sprint Corporation S 33,347 33,347 3.6% 1.2% 10,417 10,417 31.2% 31.2%
T-Mobile US, Inc. TMUS 40,604 40,604 8.3% 6.5% 10,782 10,782 26.6% 26.6%
CenturyLink, Inc. CTL 17,656 17,656 1.1% 38.3% 6,041 6,041 34.2% 34.2%
Verizon Communications Inc. VZ $126,034 $126,034 0.0% 3.8% $47,055 $47,055 37.3% 37.3%
Low $17,656 $17,656 (2.0%) 1.2% $6,041 $6,041 26.6% 26.6%
Mean 67,436 67,436 3.3% 12.7% 20,077 20,077 30.6% 30.6%
Median 40,604 40,604 3.6% 6.5% 10,782 10,782 31.2% 31.2%
High 160,546 160,546 8.3% 38.3% $45,440 $45,440 34.2% 34.2%
Valuation – WACC
12
Capital Structure
Debt-to-Total Capitalization 33.7%
Equity-to-Total Capitalization 66.3%
Cost of Debt
Cost of Debt 4.7%
Tax Rate 25.0%
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.53%
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate(1)
2.7%
Market Risk Premium(2)
5.0%
Levered Beta 1.0
Cost of Equity 7.73%
WACC 6.31%
Valuation – DCF (Base)
13
FYE December 31, FYE December 31,
($in millions) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Total Revenue $127,079.0 $131,653.0 $125,980.0 $126,034.0 $130,863.0 $133,605.0 $137,445.6 $141,506.9 $145,175.9 $148,349.9 $151,595.4
Revenue Growth 3.6% (4.3%) 0.0% 3.8% 2.1% 2.9% 3.0% 2.6% 2.2% 2.2%
Expenses
COGS 49,931.0 52,557.0 51,424.0 51,556.0 55,508.0 57,372.4 59,534.9 62,610.8 64,094.1 64,223.0 65,558.6
Gross Profit $77,148.0 $79,096.0 $74,556.0 $74,478.0 $75,355.0 $76,232.6 $77,910.7 $78,896.1 $81,081.8 $84,126.9 $86,036.8
Gross Margin 60.7% 60.1% 59.2% 59.1% 57.6% 57.1% 56.7% 55.8% 55.9% 56.7% 56.8%
SG&A 40,485.0 32,496.0 28,788.0 27,818.0 31,083.0 30,729.1 30,925.3 31,839.1 32,664.6 32,637.0 33,351.0
D&A 16,533.0 16,017.0 15,928.0 16,730.0 17,403.0 17,206.2 17,700.9 18,223.9 18,696.4 19,105.1 19,523.1
Operating Expenses 57,018.0 48,513.0 44,716.0 44,548.0 48,486.0 47,935.4 48,626.1 50,062.9 51,361.0 51,742.1 52,874.1
Operating Income (EBIT) $20,130.0 $30,583.0 $29,840.0 $29,930.0 $26,869.0 $28,297.2 $29,284.6 $28,833.2 $29,720.8 $32,384.8 $33,162.7
EBIT Margin 15.8% 23.2% 23.7% 23.7% 20.5% 21.2% 21.3% 20.4% 20.5% 21.8% 21.9%
Income Tax Expense (25%) 3,314.0 9,865.0 7,378.0 -9,956.0 3,584.0 7,074.3 7,321.1 7,208.3 7,430.2 8,096.2 8,290.7
EBIAT $16,816.0 $20,718.0 $22,462.0 $39,886.0 $23,285.0 $21,222.9 $21,963.4 $21,624.9 $22,290.6 $24,288.6 $24,872.0
Cash Flow
Plus: D&A 16,533.0 16,017.0 15,928.0 16,730.0 17,403.0 17,206.2 17,700.9 18,223.9 18,696.4 19,105.1 19,523.1
Discretionary Cash Flow $33,349.0 $36,735.0 $38,390.0 $56,616.0 $40,688.0 $38,429.1 $39,664.3 $39,848.8 $40,987.0 $43,393.7 $44,395.1
Less: Increase in NWC 0.0 4,412.0 (4,513.0) 1,681.0 2,333.9 (3,357.3) 1,042.8 1,358.8 (430.9) (744.1) (373.6)
Less: CapEx (17,191.0) (17,775.0) (17,059.0) (17,247.0) (16,658.0) (17,898.8) (18,413.3) (18,957.4) (19,448.9) (19,874.1) (20,308.9)
Free Cash Flow $16,158.0 $23,372.0 $16,818.0 $41,050.0 $26,363.9 $17,173.1 $22,293.7 $22,250.2 $21,107.2 $22,775.5 $23,712.6
Free Cash Flow Growth -- 44.6% (28.0%) 144.1% (35.8%) (34.9%) 29.8% (0.2%) (5.1%) 7.9% 4.1%
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
WACC 6.31%
Discount Period 1 2 3 4 5 6
Discount Factor 0.94 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.74 0.69
Present Value of Free Cash Flow $16,153.1 $19,724.1 $18,516.3 $16,521.8 $16,768.8 $16,421.8
Valuation – DCF (Base)
14
Enterprise Value
Cumulative Present Value of FCF $104,105.9
Terminal Value
Terminal Year EBITDA $52,685.8
Exit Multiple 7.1x
Terminal Value $375,290.6
Discount Factor 69.25%
Present Value of Terminal Value $259,901.8
% of Enterprise Value 71.4%
Enterprise Value $364,007.7
DCF Implied Equity Value and Share Price
Enterprise Value $364,007.7
Less: Total Debt $114,255.0
Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0
Implied Equity Value $252,497.7
Implied Share Price $61.11
Shares Outstanding 4,132
Comps Implied Equity Value and Share Price
Enterprise Value $402,180.9
Less: Total Debt $114,255.0
Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0
Implied Equity Value $290,670.9
Implied Share Price $70.35
Shares Outstanding 4,132
DCF Sensitivity Analysis
WACC
61.11 4.3% 5.3% 6.3% 7.3% 8.3%
5.1x $50.63 $46.93 $43.45 $40.18 $37.10
6.1x $60.53 $56.27 $52.28 $48.53 $45.00
EV/EBITDA 7.1x $70.42 $65.62 $61.11 $56.87 $52.89
8.1x $80.32 $74.96 $69.94 $65.22 $60.79
9.1x $90.21 $84.31 $78.77 $73.57 $68.69
Method Weight Price Upside
Perpetuity Growth Method 20% $96.62 77.3%
Exit Multiple Method 80% $61.11 12.1%
Fair Value Estimate $68.21 25.2%
Perpetuity Growth Method
Cumulative Present Value of FCF $104,105.9
Terminal Value
Terminal Year FCF $23,712.6
Growth Rate 2.2%
Terminal Value at 2024 $587,161.92
Discount Factor 69.25%
Present Value of Terminal Value $406,630.0
% of Enterprise Value 79.6%
Enterprise Value $510,735.9
Less: Total Debt $114,255.0
Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0
Implied Equity Value $399,225.9
Implied Share Price $96.62
Shares Outstanding 4,132
Valuation – DCF (Upside)
15
FYE December 31, FYE December 31,
($in millions) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Total Revenue $127,079.0 $131,653.0 $125,980.0 $126,034.0 $130,863.0 $134,815.7 $141,023.7 $148,248.0 $155,095.2 $161,391.4 $167,653.0
Revenue Growth -- 3.6% (4.3%) 0.0% 3.8% 3.0% 4.6% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1% 3.9%
Expenses
COGS 49,931.0 52,557.0 51,424.0 51,556.0 55,508.0 56,164.0 60,012.4 65,582.2 69,536.1 73,265.6 76,883.4
Gross Profit $77,148.0 $79,096.0 $74,556.0 $74,478.0 $75,355.0 $78,651.7 $81,011.3 $82,665.7 $85,559.1 $88,125.8 $90,769.6
Gross Margin 60.7% 60.1% 59.2% 59.1% 57.6% 58.3% 57.4% 55.8% 55.2% 54.6% 54.1%
SG&A 40,485.0 32,496.0 28,788.0 27,818.0 31,083.0 30,333.5 31,025.2 32,614.6 34,120.9 34,699.2 35,207.1
D&A 16,533.0 16,017.0 15,928.0 16,730.0 17,403.0 17,362.2 18,161.7 19,092.0 19,973.8 20,784.7 21,591.1
Operating Expenses 57,018.0 48,513.0 44,716.0 44,548.0 48,486.0 47,695.7 49,186.9 51,706.6 54,094.8 55,483.8 56,798.2
Operating Income (EBIT) $20,130.0 $30,583.0 $29,840.0 $29,930.0 $26,869.0 $30,956.0 $31,824.4 $30,959.2 $31,464.3 $32,642.0 $33,971.4
EBIT Margin 15.8% 23.2% 23.7% 23.7% 20.5% 23.0% 22.6% 20.9% 20.3% 20.2% 20.3%
Income Tax Expense (25%) 3,314.0 9,865.0 7,378.0 -9,956.0 3,584.0 7,739.0 7,956.1 7,739.8 7,866.1 8,160.5 8,492.8
EBIAT $16,816.0 $20,718.0 $22,462.0 $39,886.0 $23,285.0 $23,217.0 $23,868.3 $23,219.4 $23,598.2 $24,481.5 $25,478.5
Cash Flow
Plus: D&A 16,533.0 16,017.0 15,928.0 16,730.0 17,403.0 17,362.2 18,161.7 19,092.0 19,973.8 20,784.7 21,591.1
Discretionary Cash Flow $33,349.0 $36,735.0 $38,390.0 $56,616.0 $40,688.0 $40,579.2 $42,030.0 $42,311.4 $43,572.0 $45,266.2 $47,069.6
Less: Increase in NWC 0.0 4,412.0 (4,513.0) 1,681.0 2,333.9 (4,069.9) 987.6 1,414.0 (422.7) (358.6) (385.9)
Less: CapEx (17,191.0) (17,775.0) (17,059.0) (17,247.0) (16,658.0) (18,061.0) (18,892.7) (19,860.5) (20,777.8) (21,621.3) (22,460.1)
Free Cash Flow $16,158.0 $23,372.0 $16,818.0 $41,050.0 $26,363.9 $18,448.3 $24,124.9 $23,864.9 $22,371.5 $23,286.3 $24,223.6
Free Cash Flow Growth -- 44.6% (28.0%) 144.1% (35.8%) (30.0%) 30.8% (1.1%) (6.3%) 4.1% 4.0%
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
WACC 6.31%
Discount Period 1 2 3 4 5 6
Discount Factor 0.94 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.74 0.69
Present Value of Free Cash Flow $17,352.6 $21,344.2 $19,860.1 $17,511.5 $17,144.9 $16,775.7
Valuation – DCF (Upside)
16
Enterprise Value
Cumulative Present Value of FCF $109,989.0
Terminal Value
Terminal Year EBITDA $55,562.5
Exit Multiple 8.1x
Terminal Value $450,055.9
Discount Factor 69.25%
Present Value of Terminal Value $311,679.3
% of Enterprise Value 73.9%
Enterprise Value $421,668.3
Implied Equity Value and Share Price
Enterprise Value $421,668.3
Less: Total Debt $114,255.0
Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0
Implied Equity Value $310,158.3
Implied Share Price $75.06
Shares Outstanding 4,132
Comps Implied Equity Value and Share Price
Enterprise Value $402,180.9
Less: Total Debt $114,255.0
Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0
Implied Equity Value $290,670.9
Implied Share Price $70.35
Shares Outstanding 4,132
DCF Sensitivity Analysis
WACC
75.06 4.3% 5.3% 6.3% 7.3% 8.3%
6.1x $65.09 $60.63 $56.44 $52.50 $48.80
7.1x $75.53 $70.49 $65.75 $61.30 $57.12
EV/EBITDA 8.1x $85.97 $80.34 $75.06 $70.11 $65.45
9.1x $96.40 $90.20 $84.37 $78.91 $73.78
10.1x $106.84 $100.05 $93.69 $87.71 $82.11
Method Weight Price Upside
Perpetuity Growth Method 20% $100.47 84.4%
Exit Multiple Method 80% $75.06 37.7%
Fair Value Estimate $80.14 47.1%
Perpetuity Growth Method
Cumulative Present Value of FCF $104,105.9
Terminal Value
Terminal Year FCF $23,712.6
Growth Rate 2.2%
Terminal Value at 2024 $587,161.92
Discount Factor 69.25%
Present Value of Terminal Value $406,630.0
% of Enterprise Value 79.6%
Enterprise Value $510,735.9
Less: Total Debt $114,255.0
Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0
Implied Equity Value $399,225.9
Implied Share Price $96.62
Shares Outstanding 4,132
Valuation – DCF (Downside)
17
FYE December 31, FYE December 31,
($in millions) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Total Revenue $127,079.0 $131,653.0 $125,980.0 $126,034.0 $130,863.0 $132,394.2 $131,751.4 $131,128.6 $130,525.9 $131,007.7 $132,563.6
Revenue Growth -- 3.6% (4.3%) 0.0% 3.8% 1.2% (0.5%) (0.5%) (0.5%) 0.4% 1.2%
Expenses
COGS 49,931.0 52,557.0 51,424.0 51,556.0 55,508.0 56,696.8 59,015.4 60,228.3 59,304.2 59,809.1 60,664.7
Gross Profit $77,148.0 $79,096.0 $74,556.0 $74,478.0 $75,355.0 $75,697.4 $72,736.0 $70,900.3 $71,221.7 $71,198.7 $71,898.9
Gross Margin 60.7% 60.1% 59.2% 59.1% 57.6% 57.2% 55.2% 54.1% 54.6% 54.3% 54.2%
SG&A 40,485.0 32,496.0 28,788.0 27,818.0 31,083.0 31,774.6 31,620.3 32,126.5 31,978.8 32,096.9 33,140.9
D&A 16,533.0 16,017.0 15,928.0 16,730.0 17,403.0 17,050.3 16,967.5 16,887.3 16,809.7 16,871.8 17,072.1
Operating Expenses 57,018.0 48,513.0 44,716.0 44,548.0 48,486.0 48,824.9 48,587.8 49,013.8 48,788.5 48,968.7 50,213.0
Operating Income (EBIT) $20,130.0 $30,583.0 $29,840.0 $29,930.0 $26,869.0 $26,872.5 $24,148.1 $21,886.5 $22,433.2 $22,230.0 $21,685.9
EBIT Margin 15.8% 23.2% 23.7% 23.7% 20.5% 20.3% 18.3% 16.7% 17.2% 17.0% 16.4%
Income Tax Expense (23%) 3,314.0 9,865.0 7,378.0 -9,956.0 3,584.0 6,718.1 6,037.0 5,471.6 5,608.3 5,557.5 5,421.5
EBIAT $16,816.0 $20,718.0 $22,462.0 $39,886.0 $23,285.0 $20,154.4 $18,111.1 $16,414.9 $16,824.9 $16,672.5 $16,264.4
Cash Flow
Plus: D&A 16,533.0 16,017.0 15,928.0 16,730.0 17,403.0 17,050.3 16,967.5 16,887.3 16,809.7 16,871.8 17,072.1
Discretionary Cash Flow $33,349.0 $36,735.0 $38,390.0 $56,616.0 $40,688.0 $37,204.7 $35,078.6 $33,302.2 $33,634.6 $33,544.3 $33,336.5
Less: Increase in NWC 0.0 4,412.0 (4,513.0) 1,681.0 2,333.9 (3,250.7) 2,235.3 1,861.8 (148.1) 43.2 (109.8)
Less: CapEx (17,191.0) (17,775.0) (17,059.0) (17,247.0) (16,658.0) (16,852.9) (16,771.1) (16,691.8) (16,615.1) (16,676.4) (16,874.5)
Free Cash Flow $16,158.0 $23,372.0 $16,818.0 $41,050.0 $26,363.9 $17,101.0 $20,542.9 $18,472.2 $16,871.4 $16,911.0 $16,352.2
Free Cash Flow Growth -- 44.6% (28.0%) 144.1% (35.8%) (35.1%) 20.1% (10.1%) (8.7%) 0.2% (3.3%)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
WACC 6.31%
Discount Period 1 2 3 4 5 6
Discount Factor 0.94 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.74 0.69
Present Value of Free Cash Flow $16,085.3 $18,175.0 $15,372.3 $13,206.2 $12,451.0 $11,324.5
Valuation – DCF (Downside)
18
Enterprise Value
Cumulative Present Value of FCF $86,614.3
Terminal Value
Terminal Year EBITDA $38,758.0
Exit Multiple 6.1x
Terminal Value $236,423.9
Discount Factor 69.25%
Present Value of Terminal Value $163,731.7
% of Enterprise Value 65.4%
Enterprise Value $250,346.1
Implied Equity Value and Share Price
Enterprise Value $250,346.1
Less: Total Debt $114,255.0
Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0
Implied Equity Value $138,836.1
Implied Share Price $33.60
Shares Outstanding 4,132
Comps Implied Equity Value and Share Price
Enterprise Value $402,180.9
Less: Total Debt $114,255.0
Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0
Implied Equity Value $290,670.9
Implied Share Price $70.35
Shares Outstanding 4,132
DCF Sensitivity Analysis
WACC
33.60 4.3% 5.3% 6.3% 7.3% 8.3%
4.1x $25.17 $22.82 $20.61 $18.53 $16.57
5.1x $32.45 $29.69 $27.10 $24.67 $22.38
EV/EBITDA 6.1x $39.73 $36.57 $33.60 $30.81 $28.19
7.1x $47.01 $43.44 $40.10 $36.95 $33.99
8.1x $54.29 $50.32 $46.59 $43.09 $39.80
Perpetuity Growth Method
Cumulative Present Value of FCF $86,614.3
Terminal Value
Terminal Year FCF $16,352.2
Growth Rate 2.2%
Terminal Value at 2024 $406,159.20
Discount Factor 69.25%
Present Value of Terminal Value $281,279.3
% of Enterprise Value 76.5%
Enterprise Value $367,893.7
Less: Total Debt $114,255.0
Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0
Implied Equity Value $256,383.7
Implied Share Price $62.05
Shares Outstanding 4,132
Method Weight Price Upside
Perpetuity Growth Method 20% $62.05 13.9%
Exit Multiple Method 80% $33.60 -38.3%
Fair Value Estimate $39.29 -27.9%

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Verizon Investment Pitch Deck

  • 1. 1 Verizon Communications, Inc. NYSE: VZ Recommendation: HOLD Robby Sveda & Alex Tullman
  • 2. Investment Thesis 2 Recommendation: Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is undervalued with respect to its substantial long-term upside as 5G technology revolutionizes the telecom sector. Rationale: Verizon’s wireless network is the leader in 5G innovation. This technology will increase wireless revenues by 3.5% and open additional revenue streams, such as IOT. Verizon also has the stickiest customer base of major telecommunications companies, reducing potential downside. 1 2 3 IOT has potential to be a significant source of entirely new revenue 5G will increase revenue from wireless customers Sustained market share and stickiness of revenues (lowest churn) Price Target: $68.21 25.2% upside to current price of $54.50
  • 3. Industry Overview 3 Overview Verizon is a Market Leader Annual Mobile Data Usage Worldwide 4G Wireless Network U.S. Coverage as % of Land • 95% of US adults own a cellphone • 77% own a smartphone • Wireless connectivity continues to expand globally • US companies poised to expand internationally • Both AT&T and Verizon have diversified and expanded into other media outlets (i.e. DirecTV, Fios, Oath) • AT&T and Verizon are both beginning planning for testing of 5G • Verizon poised to test • AT&T currently getting sued by Sprint • New competition fro Cricket Wireless in the US Verizon 35% AT&T 34% T-Mobile 18% Sprint 12% 43 73 144 242 366 516 701 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021* ThousandPetabytes 70.0% 59.0% 58.0% 27.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Verizon AT&T T-Mobile Sprint
  • 4. Company Overview 4 Company Profile Historical Stock Chart Acquisitions Overview Revenue Breakdown ($ in millions) • Verizon is the industry leader for telecommunications • Verizon has two main revenue streams • Service Revenue • Wireless Equipment sales • Other sources of revenue include wireline cable, Fios • Heavily invested in the development of 5G connectivity • Currently testing in Sacramento, Los Angeles, Houston, and Indianapolis • Dividend/yield of 4.46% • Has an established group of customers developing software on hosted servers, Thingspace 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 6-Feb-14 6-Feb-15 6-Feb-16 6-Feb-17 6-Feb-18 Millions Volume Adj Close** $116,122 $114,696 $108,468 $107,145 $108,605 $10,957 $16,957 $17,512 $18,889 $22,258 $127,079 $131,653 $125,980 $126,034 $130,863 $0.0 $25,000.0 $50,000.0 $75,000.0 $100,000.0 $125,000.0 $150,000.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Service Revenues and Other Wireless Equipment CAGR: 0.7%  Verizon has expanded into the media outlet business with acquisitions of AOL (2015) and Yahoo (2017), for $4.4 billion and $4.1 billion, respectively.  Together, these companies formed Oath, which is now known as Verizon Media Group  Includes Yahoo, Huff Post, Tumblr, Engadget  $4.6 billion goodwill impairment in 2017  Projected revenue of $10 billion by 2020, but underwhelmed with $1.8 billion in 2018 • Purchased 45% of Vodafone in 2014 • $130 billion to buy Vodafone out of Verizon’s U.S. wireless business
  • 5. Sustained market share and stickiness of revenues 5 Industry Stability Postpaid Monthly Churn Rates (%) Quarterly Users (Millions) 1 • Wireless connectivity and telecom services are only going to grow • World is becoming increasingly dependent on wireless service for day-to-day life. Verizon has extremely loyal customers, evidenced by having the lowest post-paid churn rate due to their consistent service and quality • Customers cite network reliability as the reason they stay • Verizon 2.0: “The realignment of our operations to better focus on our customers. This new operating model realigns our customer-facing units into consumer, business and Verizon Media Group.” • Low Beta due to saturation of the telecom industry 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Verizon AT&T T-Mobile Sprint 146 147 149 150 151 153 154 134 137 139 142 144 147 150 73 70 71 73 74 76 77 59 53 53 54 54 54 54 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Verizon Wireless AT&T T-Mobile USA Sprint Nextel Verizon’s low churn rate demonstrate the company’s ability to retain customers and minimize revenue volatility
  • 6. 5G will increase revenue from wireless customers 6 5G Technology Towers 2  5G technology will be faster and lower latency than 4G  As much as 1,000X faster than 4G  Low latency allows for better voice, video, and cloud applications (IOT)  Allows for more users at one time (bandwidth)  Fast enough to compete with cable internet for business of corporations  Faster than most cable internet  Cheaper and faster to implement • Verizon sold rights to 1,324 wireless communications towers to American tower in 2015 • American Tower will have the rights to operate them for 28 years • Verizon has contracted to sublease space on the towers for a minimum of 10 years with monthly rent of $1,900 per site and fixed annual rent escalators of 2%. • While this price increase presents a risk for Verizon, the revenue generated by selling more towers through 5G should offset the risk. Monetizing 5G in Wireless  5G technology will be available for cellphones by first half of 2019 and should have universal support by 2020  5G will require phones with compatible chips, resulting in significantly high activations of new devices  Cisco projects wireless bills to rise 57% in 2019 based upon the dramatic difference in speed between 4G and 5G  Verizon’s customers have been loyal because of network quality, likely to pay the 5G premium 48 46 41 38 35 47 42 39 37 34 38 36 35 34 34 44 40 36 33 31 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Verizon, adj AT&T T-Moble, adj Sprint, adj Wireless Service ARPU
  • 7. Internet of Things (IOT) expansion of revenues 7 What is included in IOT? Internet Connected Devices (in Billions) 3  “The interconnection via the internet, of computing devices embedded in everyday objects, enabling them to send and receive data.”  With the introduction of 5G, more devices will be able to connect to the internet  Cars  Driverless Cars  Home appliances (fridge, oven, etc.)  Lightbulbs  Children’s toys  Thermostats  Door locks Revenue from IOT  Verizon has begun advertising to partner with businesses to provide them greater interconnectivity  On the 4G LTE network, 1,000+ IOT partners  $1.5 Billion in revenue in 2017  14,000+ developers hosted on ThingSpace platform  1GB-$20/year (+$1/device/month)  4G LTE does not come close to meeting the need  More subscriptions to ThingSpace  More businesses partnering with Verizon  More devices that need connectivity  More revenue 15.4 17.7 20.4 23.1 26.7 30.7 35.8 42.6 51.1 62.1 75.4 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
  • 8. Key Risks 8  Largest market share of all competitors  Most loyal customers  Telecommunications tend to fair well, comparatively, during recessions  Were not the first to unveil 4G and did not lose many customers  Verizon Media Group, formerly Oath, is supposed to turn a profit for the first time ever this year  Laying off employees continues to cut costs  Already has customers developing software for IoT  Revenue concentration – 100% of wireless revenue comes from US  Competition in the development of 5G network  Macro economic risk, market/trade tensions causing the markets to be suppressed  Loss of wireless equipment sales, companies like Apple and Samsung going DTC  Cost of increasing bandwidth across US will be significant, needs to be partnered with high revenues  Cricket may take market share if there is a recession  Not meeting demand and losing industrial customers to AT&T Key Risks Mitigants
  • 9. Final Recommendation 9 Recommendation: Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is undervalued with respect to its substantial long-term upside as 5G technology revolutionizes the telecom sector. Base Case Price Target: $68.21 Upside: 25.2% Upside Case Price Target: $80.14 Upside: 47.1% Downside Case Price Target: $39.29 Upside: -27.9%
  • 11. Valuation – Comparable Companies Analysis 11 Market Enterprise EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA Price / Earnings Company Ticker Capitalization Value 2017A LTM 2017A LTM 2017A LTM AT&T Inc. T $217,076 $388,377 2.1x 2.4x 7.3x 8.5x 7.3x 18.7x Comcast Corporation CMCS.A 168,547 276,476 2.8x 3.3x 8.7x 10.0x 8.7x 19.2x Sprint Corporation S 25,041 58,102 1.9x 1.7x 6.0x 5.6x 6.0x NM T-Mobile US, Inc. TMUS 59,175 88,076 1.9x 2.2x 7.2x 8.2x 7.2x 24.9x CenturyLink, Inc. CTL 15,724 51,861 2.9x 2.9x 8.4x 8.6x 8.4x 28.7x Verizon Communications Inc. VZ $224,863 $335,181 2.5193793 2.7x 6.7x 7.1x 6.7x 13.6x Low $15,724 $51,861 1.9x 1.7x 6.0x 5.6x 6.0x 18.7x Mean 97,113 172,578 2.3x 2.5x 7.5x 8.2x 7.5x 22.9x Median 59,175 88,076 2.1x 2.4x 7.3x 8.5x 7.3x 22.0x High 217,076 388,377 2.9x 3.3x 8.7x 10.0x 8.7x 28.7x Operating Statistics Revenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Margin Company Ticker 2017A LTM '16-'17A LTM 2017A LTM 2017A LTM AT&T Inc. T $160,546 $160,546 (2.0%) 6.4% $45,440 $45,440 28.3% 28.3% Comcast Corporation CMCS.A 85,029 85,029 5.3% 11.1% 27,706 27,706 32.6% 32.6% Sprint Corporation S 33,347 33,347 3.6% 1.2% 10,417 10,417 31.2% 31.2% T-Mobile US, Inc. TMUS 40,604 40,604 8.3% 6.5% 10,782 10,782 26.6% 26.6% CenturyLink, Inc. CTL 17,656 17,656 1.1% 38.3% 6,041 6,041 34.2% 34.2% Verizon Communications Inc. VZ $126,034 $126,034 0.0% 3.8% $47,055 $47,055 37.3% 37.3% Low $17,656 $17,656 (2.0%) 1.2% $6,041 $6,041 26.6% 26.6% Mean 67,436 67,436 3.3% 12.7% 20,077 20,077 30.6% 30.6% Median 40,604 40,604 3.6% 6.5% 10,782 10,782 31.2% 31.2% High 160,546 160,546 8.3% 38.3% $45,440 $45,440 34.2% 34.2%
  • 12. Valuation – WACC 12 Capital Structure Debt-to-Total Capitalization 33.7% Equity-to-Total Capitalization 66.3% Cost of Debt Cost of Debt 4.7% Tax Rate 25.0% After-tax Cost of Debt 3.53% Cost of Equity Risk-free Rate(1) 2.7% Market Risk Premium(2) 5.0% Levered Beta 1.0 Cost of Equity 7.73% WACC 6.31%
  • 13. Valuation – DCF (Base) 13 FYE December 31, FYE December 31, ($in millions) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E Total Revenue $127,079.0 $131,653.0 $125,980.0 $126,034.0 $130,863.0 $133,605.0 $137,445.6 $141,506.9 $145,175.9 $148,349.9 $151,595.4 Revenue Growth 3.6% (4.3%) 0.0% 3.8% 2.1% 2.9% 3.0% 2.6% 2.2% 2.2% Expenses COGS 49,931.0 52,557.0 51,424.0 51,556.0 55,508.0 57,372.4 59,534.9 62,610.8 64,094.1 64,223.0 65,558.6 Gross Profit $77,148.0 $79,096.0 $74,556.0 $74,478.0 $75,355.0 $76,232.6 $77,910.7 $78,896.1 $81,081.8 $84,126.9 $86,036.8 Gross Margin 60.7% 60.1% 59.2% 59.1% 57.6% 57.1% 56.7% 55.8% 55.9% 56.7% 56.8% SG&A 40,485.0 32,496.0 28,788.0 27,818.0 31,083.0 30,729.1 30,925.3 31,839.1 32,664.6 32,637.0 33,351.0 D&A 16,533.0 16,017.0 15,928.0 16,730.0 17,403.0 17,206.2 17,700.9 18,223.9 18,696.4 19,105.1 19,523.1 Operating Expenses 57,018.0 48,513.0 44,716.0 44,548.0 48,486.0 47,935.4 48,626.1 50,062.9 51,361.0 51,742.1 52,874.1 Operating Income (EBIT) $20,130.0 $30,583.0 $29,840.0 $29,930.0 $26,869.0 $28,297.2 $29,284.6 $28,833.2 $29,720.8 $32,384.8 $33,162.7 EBIT Margin 15.8% 23.2% 23.7% 23.7% 20.5% 21.2% 21.3% 20.4% 20.5% 21.8% 21.9% Income Tax Expense (25%) 3,314.0 9,865.0 7,378.0 -9,956.0 3,584.0 7,074.3 7,321.1 7,208.3 7,430.2 8,096.2 8,290.7 EBIAT $16,816.0 $20,718.0 $22,462.0 $39,886.0 $23,285.0 $21,222.9 $21,963.4 $21,624.9 $22,290.6 $24,288.6 $24,872.0 Cash Flow Plus: D&A 16,533.0 16,017.0 15,928.0 16,730.0 17,403.0 17,206.2 17,700.9 18,223.9 18,696.4 19,105.1 19,523.1 Discretionary Cash Flow $33,349.0 $36,735.0 $38,390.0 $56,616.0 $40,688.0 $38,429.1 $39,664.3 $39,848.8 $40,987.0 $43,393.7 $44,395.1 Less: Increase in NWC 0.0 4,412.0 (4,513.0) 1,681.0 2,333.9 (3,357.3) 1,042.8 1,358.8 (430.9) (744.1) (373.6) Less: CapEx (17,191.0) (17,775.0) (17,059.0) (17,247.0) (16,658.0) (17,898.8) (18,413.3) (18,957.4) (19,448.9) (19,874.1) (20,308.9) Free Cash Flow $16,158.0 $23,372.0 $16,818.0 $41,050.0 $26,363.9 $17,173.1 $22,293.7 $22,250.2 $21,107.2 $22,775.5 $23,712.6 Free Cash Flow Growth -- 44.6% (28.0%) 144.1% (35.8%) (34.9%) 29.8% (0.2%) (5.1%) 7.9% 4.1% Unlevered Free Cash Flow WACC 6.31% Discount Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 Discount Factor 0.94 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.74 0.69 Present Value of Free Cash Flow $16,153.1 $19,724.1 $18,516.3 $16,521.8 $16,768.8 $16,421.8
  • 14. Valuation – DCF (Base) 14 Enterprise Value Cumulative Present Value of FCF $104,105.9 Terminal Value Terminal Year EBITDA $52,685.8 Exit Multiple 7.1x Terminal Value $375,290.6 Discount Factor 69.25% Present Value of Terminal Value $259,901.8 % of Enterprise Value 71.4% Enterprise Value $364,007.7 DCF Implied Equity Value and Share Price Enterprise Value $364,007.7 Less: Total Debt $114,255.0 Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0 Implied Equity Value $252,497.7 Implied Share Price $61.11 Shares Outstanding 4,132 Comps Implied Equity Value and Share Price Enterprise Value $402,180.9 Less: Total Debt $114,255.0 Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0 Implied Equity Value $290,670.9 Implied Share Price $70.35 Shares Outstanding 4,132 DCF Sensitivity Analysis WACC 61.11 4.3% 5.3% 6.3% 7.3% 8.3% 5.1x $50.63 $46.93 $43.45 $40.18 $37.10 6.1x $60.53 $56.27 $52.28 $48.53 $45.00 EV/EBITDA 7.1x $70.42 $65.62 $61.11 $56.87 $52.89 8.1x $80.32 $74.96 $69.94 $65.22 $60.79 9.1x $90.21 $84.31 $78.77 $73.57 $68.69 Method Weight Price Upside Perpetuity Growth Method 20% $96.62 77.3% Exit Multiple Method 80% $61.11 12.1% Fair Value Estimate $68.21 25.2% Perpetuity Growth Method Cumulative Present Value of FCF $104,105.9 Terminal Value Terminal Year FCF $23,712.6 Growth Rate 2.2% Terminal Value at 2024 $587,161.92 Discount Factor 69.25% Present Value of Terminal Value $406,630.0 % of Enterprise Value 79.6% Enterprise Value $510,735.9 Less: Total Debt $114,255.0 Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0 Implied Equity Value $399,225.9 Implied Share Price $96.62 Shares Outstanding 4,132
  • 15. Valuation – DCF (Upside) 15 FYE December 31, FYE December 31, ($in millions) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E Total Revenue $127,079.0 $131,653.0 $125,980.0 $126,034.0 $130,863.0 $134,815.7 $141,023.7 $148,248.0 $155,095.2 $161,391.4 $167,653.0 Revenue Growth -- 3.6% (4.3%) 0.0% 3.8% 3.0% 4.6% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1% 3.9% Expenses COGS 49,931.0 52,557.0 51,424.0 51,556.0 55,508.0 56,164.0 60,012.4 65,582.2 69,536.1 73,265.6 76,883.4 Gross Profit $77,148.0 $79,096.0 $74,556.0 $74,478.0 $75,355.0 $78,651.7 $81,011.3 $82,665.7 $85,559.1 $88,125.8 $90,769.6 Gross Margin 60.7% 60.1% 59.2% 59.1% 57.6% 58.3% 57.4% 55.8% 55.2% 54.6% 54.1% SG&A 40,485.0 32,496.0 28,788.0 27,818.0 31,083.0 30,333.5 31,025.2 32,614.6 34,120.9 34,699.2 35,207.1 D&A 16,533.0 16,017.0 15,928.0 16,730.0 17,403.0 17,362.2 18,161.7 19,092.0 19,973.8 20,784.7 21,591.1 Operating Expenses 57,018.0 48,513.0 44,716.0 44,548.0 48,486.0 47,695.7 49,186.9 51,706.6 54,094.8 55,483.8 56,798.2 Operating Income (EBIT) $20,130.0 $30,583.0 $29,840.0 $29,930.0 $26,869.0 $30,956.0 $31,824.4 $30,959.2 $31,464.3 $32,642.0 $33,971.4 EBIT Margin 15.8% 23.2% 23.7% 23.7% 20.5% 23.0% 22.6% 20.9% 20.3% 20.2% 20.3% Income Tax Expense (25%) 3,314.0 9,865.0 7,378.0 -9,956.0 3,584.0 7,739.0 7,956.1 7,739.8 7,866.1 8,160.5 8,492.8 EBIAT $16,816.0 $20,718.0 $22,462.0 $39,886.0 $23,285.0 $23,217.0 $23,868.3 $23,219.4 $23,598.2 $24,481.5 $25,478.5 Cash Flow Plus: D&A 16,533.0 16,017.0 15,928.0 16,730.0 17,403.0 17,362.2 18,161.7 19,092.0 19,973.8 20,784.7 21,591.1 Discretionary Cash Flow $33,349.0 $36,735.0 $38,390.0 $56,616.0 $40,688.0 $40,579.2 $42,030.0 $42,311.4 $43,572.0 $45,266.2 $47,069.6 Less: Increase in NWC 0.0 4,412.0 (4,513.0) 1,681.0 2,333.9 (4,069.9) 987.6 1,414.0 (422.7) (358.6) (385.9) Less: CapEx (17,191.0) (17,775.0) (17,059.0) (17,247.0) (16,658.0) (18,061.0) (18,892.7) (19,860.5) (20,777.8) (21,621.3) (22,460.1) Free Cash Flow $16,158.0 $23,372.0 $16,818.0 $41,050.0 $26,363.9 $18,448.3 $24,124.9 $23,864.9 $22,371.5 $23,286.3 $24,223.6 Free Cash Flow Growth -- 44.6% (28.0%) 144.1% (35.8%) (30.0%) 30.8% (1.1%) (6.3%) 4.1% 4.0% Unlevered Free Cash Flow WACC 6.31% Discount Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 Discount Factor 0.94 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.74 0.69 Present Value of Free Cash Flow $17,352.6 $21,344.2 $19,860.1 $17,511.5 $17,144.9 $16,775.7
  • 16. Valuation – DCF (Upside) 16 Enterprise Value Cumulative Present Value of FCF $109,989.0 Terminal Value Terminal Year EBITDA $55,562.5 Exit Multiple 8.1x Terminal Value $450,055.9 Discount Factor 69.25% Present Value of Terminal Value $311,679.3 % of Enterprise Value 73.9% Enterprise Value $421,668.3 Implied Equity Value and Share Price Enterprise Value $421,668.3 Less: Total Debt $114,255.0 Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0 Implied Equity Value $310,158.3 Implied Share Price $75.06 Shares Outstanding 4,132 Comps Implied Equity Value and Share Price Enterprise Value $402,180.9 Less: Total Debt $114,255.0 Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0 Implied Equity Value $290,670.9 Implied Share Price $70.35 Shares Outstanding 4,132 DCF Sensitivity Analysis WACC 75.06 4.3% 5.3% 6.3% 7.3% 8.3% 6.1x $65.09 $60.63 $56.44 $52.50 $48.80 7.1x $75.53 $70.49 $65.75 $61.30 $57.12 EV/EBITDA 8.1x $85.97 $80.34 $75.06 $70.11 $65.45 9.1x $96.40 $90.20 $84.37 $78.91 $73.78 10.1x $106.84 $100.05 $93.69 $87.71 $82.11 Method Weight Price Upside Perpetuity Growth Method 20% $100.47 84.4% Exit Multiple Method 80% $75.06 37.7% Fair Value Estimate $80.14 47.1% Perpetuity Growth Method Cumulative Present Value of FCF $104,105.9 Terminal Value Terminal Year FCF $23,712.6 Growth Rate 2.2% Terminal Value at 2024 $587,161.92 Discount Factor 69.25% Present Value of Terminal Value $406,630.0 % of Enterprise Value 79.6% Enterprise Value $510,735.9 Less: Total Debt $114,255.0 Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0 Implied Equity Value $399,225.9 Implied Share Price $96.62 Shares Outstanding 4,132
  • 17. Valuation – DCF (Downside) 17 FYE December 31, FYE December 31, ($in millions) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E Total Revenue $127,079.0 $131,653.0 $125,980.0 $126,034.0 $130,863.0 $132,394.2 $131,751.4 $131,128.6 $130,525.9 $131,007.7 $132,563.6 Revenue Growth -- 3.6% (4.3%) 0.0% 3.8% 1.2% (0.5%) (0.5%) (0.5%) 0.4% 1.2% Expenses COGS 49,931.0 52,557.0 51,424.0 51,556.0 55,508.0 56,696.8 59,015.4 60,228.3 59,304.2 59,809.1 60,664.7 Gross Profit $77,148.0 $79,096.0 $74,556.0 $74,478.0 $75,355.0 $75,697.4 $72,736.0 $70,900.3 $71,221.7 $71,198.7 $71,898.9 Gross Margin 60.7% 60.1% 59.2% 59.1% 57.6% 57.2% 55.2% 54.1% 54.6% 54.3% 54.2% SG&A 40,485.0 32,496.0 28,788.0 27,818.0 31,083.0 31,774.6 31,620.3 32,126.5 31,978.8 32,096.9 33,140.9 D&A 16,533.0 16,017.0 15,928.0 16,730.0 17,403.0 17,050.3 16,967.5 16,887.3 16,809.7 16,871.8 17,072.1 Operating Expenses 57,018.0 48,513.0 44,716.0 44,548.0 48,486.0 48,824.9 48,587.8 49,013.8 48,788.5 48,968.7 50,213.0 Operating Income (EBIT) $20,130.0 $30,583.0 $29,840.0 $29,930.0 $26,869.0 $26,872.5 $24,148.1 $21,886.5 $22,433.2 $22,230.0 $21,685.9 EBIT Margin 15.8% 23.2% 23.7% 23.7% 20.5% 20.3% 18.3% 16.7% 17.2% 17.0% 16.4% Income Tax Expense (23%) 3,314.0 9,865.0 7,378.0 -9,956.0 3,584.0 6,718.1 6,037.0 5,471.6 5,608.3 5,557.5 5,421.5 EBIAT $16,816.0 $20,718.0 $22,462.0 $39,886.0 $23,285.0 $20,154.4 $18,111.1 $16,414.9 $16,824.9 $16,672.5 $16,264.4 Cash Flow Plus: D&A 16,533.0 16,017.0 15,928.0 16,730.0 17,403.0 17,050.3 16,967.5 16,887.3 16,809.7 16,871.8 17,072.1 Discretionary Cash Flow $33,349.0 $36,735.0 $38,390.0 $56,616.0 $40,688.0 $37,204.7 $35,078.6 $33,302.2 $33,634.6 $33,544.3 $33,336.5 Less: Increase in NWC 0.0 4,412.0 (4,513.0) 1,681.0 2,333.9 (3,250.7) 2,235.3 1,861.8 (148.1) 43.2 (109.8) Less: CapEx (17,191.0) (17,775.0) (17,059.0) (17,247.0) (16,658.0) (16,852.9) (16,771.1) (16,691.8) (16,615.1) (16,676.4) (16,874.5) Free Cash Flow $16,158.0 $23,372.0 $16,818.0 $41,050.0 $26,363.9 $17,101.0 $20,542.9 $18,472.2 $16,871.4 $16,911.0 $16,352.2 Free Cash Flow Growth -- 44.6% (28.0%) 144.1% (35.8%) (35.1%) 20.1% (10.1%) (8.7%) 0.2% (3.3%) Unlevered Free Cash Flow WACC 6.31% Discount Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 Discount Factor 0.94 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.74 0.69 Present Value of Free Cash Flow $16,085.3 $18,175.0 $15,372.3 $13,206.2 $12,451.0 $11,324.5
  • 18. Valuation – DCF (Downside) 18 Enterprise Value Cumulative Present Value of FCF $86,614.3 Terminal Value Terminal Year EBITDA $38,758.0 Exit Multiple 6.1x Terminal Value $236,423.9 Discount Factor 69.25% Present Value of Terminal Value $163,731.7 % of Enterprise Value 65.4% Enterprise Value $250,346.1 Implied Equity Value and Share Price Enterprise Value $250,346.1 Less: Total Debt $114,255.0 Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0 Implied Equity Value $138,836.1 Implied Share Price $33.60 Shares Outstanding 4,132 Comps Implied Equity Value and Share Price Enterprise Value $402,180.9 Less: Total Debt $114,255.0 Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0 Implied Equity Value $290,670.9 Implied Share Price $70.35 Shares Outstanding 4,132 DCF Sensitivity Analysis WACC 33.60 4.3% 5.3% 6.3% 7.3% 8.3% 4.1x $25.17 $22.82 $20.61 $18.53 $16.57 5.1x $32.45 $29.69 $27.10 $24.67 $22.38 EV/EBITDA 6.1x $39.73 $36.57 $33.60 $30.81 $28.19 7.1x $47.01 $43.44 $40.10 $36.95 $33.99 8.1x $54.29 $50.32 $46.59 $43.09 $39.80 Perpetuity Growth Method Cumulative Present Value of FCF $86,614.3 Terminal Value Terminal Year FCF $16,352.2 Growth Rate 2.2% Terminal Value at 2024 $406,159.20 Discount Factor 69.25% Present Value of Terminal Value $281,279.3 % of Enterprise Value 76.5% Enterprise Value $367,893.7 Less: Total Debt $114,255.0 Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $2,745.0 Implied Equity Value $256,383.7 Implied Share Price $62.05 Shares Outstanding 4,132 Method Weight Price Upside Perpetuity Growth Method 20% $62.05 13.9% Exit Multiple Method 80% $33.60 -38.3% Fair Value Estimate $39.29 -27.9%