In these slides, Mohit Bhakuni, CEO – Contify, Erik Glitman, CEO – Fletcher/CSI, and Meena Almaula, Consultant - Tata Business Group will discuss how to develop scenarios based on current trends across Society, Technology, Economics, Environment, and Politics (STEEP). Discussion topics - How to develop scenarios? - Scenario Planning as a tool to predict future business environments. - Importance of tracking early warning indicators. - How to trigger strategic action in response to events? - Case Study: How to deploy a market intelligence system using scenario-based forecasting models.

1. Using Scenario Planning
to Build Competitive
Tracking Systems
Webinar

2. ➔ Scenario Planning, Indicator Development, Market
Monitoring Overview
➔ Setting up scenarios –STEEP and Trends
➔ Linking Scenarios to Event Indicators
➔ Using Indicators to Build Monitoring Programs
➔ Establishing Action Plans Based on Indicators
➔ Conclusion
On the agenda
Mohit Bhakuni
Founder and CEO · Contify
Erik Glitman
CEO · Fletcher/CSI
Meena Almaula
Consultant · Tata Business Excellence
Cam Mackey (Moderator)
Executive Director · SCIP
Today’s Speakers
26 May 2021

3. Introduction
— Concept illustration

4. ➔ How scenario planning can work to define market monitoring and competitive action
➔ How to use a retrospective approach based on real world activities around a fictional situation
➔ Situation: An automotive industry participant in the year 2000 needs a strategy for electric vehicles
→ Needs to know when, and how fast, to shift from IC to EV
→ Strategy is to preserve market share throughout the shift
➔ Actions: Identify how the transition from IC to EV will occur and key indicators of the process
→ Events that indicate the speed of the transition and technology
→ Specific strategic responses to the events
➔ Building a monitoring program based on the identified events
→ Sourcing strategy based on the indicators
→ Platform configuration for tracking different scenarios (taxonomy, alerts, dashboard, etc.)
Concept illustration

5. Overview
— Scenario planning, indicators, and market
monitoring

6. ➔ The purpose of scenario planning is to create a basis to build strategic models in a
changing world
→ Scenarios are informed by current trends (STEEP), analysis, and industry knowledge, not
equally weighted
→ A scenario itself is a story-telling on how current trends will impact the future
➔ Well-made scenarios identify change from today to the future
→ What must change to make the future possible
→ Directional
➔ Identifying what must change is the basis for indicator development
→ In order for the change to happen, specific changes must happen as well
→ The specific changes are indicators
➔ Indicators form the basis of monitoring
→ Focus on the indicator event
→ Develop an action plan based on the indicator
Scenario planning, indicators, and market monitoring

7. Setting up scenarios
— Building scenarios
— Impact of STEEP trends on the scenario
— Trends identified by an automotive industry participant

8. Building scenarios
➔ Start by identifying specific trends that will affect the industry
➔ Use STEEP to classify the trends
➔ Examining a scenario that is already in process:
→ By the year 2035, 60% of all personal use vehicles will be 100%
electric

9. Impact of STEEP trends on the scenario
STEEP Factor Key Trends Role in Scenario
Society Increased social pressure for EV
EV seen as status symbol
Increased significance of “virtue signals”
Higher levels of social acceptance will indicate
great use of EV
Technology Push for higher battery power densities
Implementation of universal charging ports
Increased charging speeds
Matching or exceeding IC performance
Allows the EV to be used in identical fashion as an
IC and with equal levels of concern
Economics Drive to lower overall EV life cycle cost to equal or less
than IC
Utility support for in home charging to reduce costs
Total cost outlay over the life of the EV as equal to
IC reduces economic barriers to entry
Environment Climate change has role in all decision
Push for EV to demonstrate total lower environment
life cycle cost
Demonstrate that EVs have a total lower
environment footprint than IC to support climate
change goals
Political Government investment in EV infrastructure
Continued tax incentives for EV purchase and in-home
chargers
Elections include EV platform issues
Political programs to reduce EV barriers to entry
and purchase

10. Case study
Note: The contents of the following slides are strictly the opinion and
methods of the speaker and not an official statement by their organization.
Scenario planning at an automotive
industry participant

11. Trends identified by an automotive
industry participant
Expand into new areas
➔ Market Trends - the value of the engine suddenly got transferred to other
elements. E.g., 70 - 80% of the value moved to two parts of an EV – powertrain
and electric drive
➔ Customer Demand Trends – focus was moving from look and feel to
technology-based requirements e.g., sensor-based seats, heated seats
➔ Political Encouragement – increased government push through subsidies e.g.
FAME-2, sponsorship of employment of direct Manpower
➔ Competitive Environment – non-automotive players entering the market with
new technology
➔ OEMs prefer a full-service supplier – wanted to be an end-to-end supplier
across the whole spectrum
Wait & watch if EVs take off
→ Continue with current production of
components for ICE only
→ Look for some alternative areas to grow

12. Linking scenarios to event indicators
— Building an indicator tree
— Events and their indicators

13. Building an indicator tree
➔ Indicator trees work backwards
→ Start at the end state
→ Identify what has to happen to reach the end state,
starting with the last step that completes the process
→ Ending with the current state
→ Each end state will have multiple transition/precursor
events which must be in place to allow the next step

14. Events and their indicators
Event Level 1 Indicator Level 2 Indicator Level 3 Indicator
Higher Battery Power
Density
EV distance averages
120 miles when fully
EV distance averages
180 miles when full
EV distance averages
300 miles when full
Universal Charging Ports 50% of EV use same
charge port
80% of EV use the same
charge port
95% of EV use the same
charge port
Rapid Charging Capacity 50% of public parking
lots have High Speed
Charging
75% of public parking
lots have high speed
charging
45% of public parking
spots have high-speed
charging
Exceed IC Performance 0-60 times within 80%
of average IC
0-60 time equal to
average IC
0-60 time exceeds
average IC time
Note: For simplicity, example only uses the Technology component of the scenarios

15. Building indicator monitoring capacity
— Process overview
— Taxonomy and newsfeeds
— Insights and Dashboards
— Instant alerts and newsletters

16. Process overview
Indicator
Development
→ Identify indicators for
different scenarios
→ Define Level 1, 2 and 3
thresholds
→ Action Response to
Trigger Events
Platform
Configuration
→ Sources: Regulatory/
Government/ News/
Company websites
→ Taxonomy
→ Newsfeed and
Dashboards
Actionable
Intelligence
→ ML/ NLP/ Text Analytics +
Human curation
→ Collaboration & Sharing
→ Alerts & Newsletters
→ Reports & Analysis
Strategic
Decision

17. Structuring of intelligence based on
event indicators for efficient analysis.
Platform configuration
Taxonomy

18. Strategically important updates
for continuous monitoring of
event indicators.
Platform configuration
Newsfeed

19. Key points from relevant updates
that help monitor event indicators
with accuracy.
For example: (PESTEL) Political –
increase in government push towards
EVs through subsidies
Platform configuration
Analysis

20. Visual representation of data that helps
identify trends.
Platform configuration
Dashboards

21. Alerts swiftly notify the user of
important trigger events.
Platform configuration
Instant Alerts

22. Strategic updates sent directly to the
email inbox in a report format for easy
monitoring of event indicators.
Platform configuration
Newsletter Reports

23. Establishing action responses to trigger
events
— Alerting when trigger is reached
— Action choices used when trigger is noted

24. Alerting when trigger
is reached
➔ In order to act when an event is triggered, an alert of
some sort is required.
➔ A monitoring program can be used to set up automatic
alerts which will go off when a trigger is reached.
Action choices when trigger
is noted
➔ Trigger 1 – Provide a seamless charging experience
➔ Action 1 - Partnered with an electric utility company for
installation of Fast Chargers
➔ Trigger 2 - Decrease dependence on China for
Lithium
➔ Action 2 – Step up battery recycling capabilities and
conduct research on alternative battery technologies
using different metals

25. Conclusion

26. ➔ Start by building scenarios defined by strategic
choices
➔ Determine what must change for the scenario
to develop
➔ Build tracking tools based on the change
events
➔ Identify specific actions to take in response to
the events
➔ Update scenarios, tracking tools, and actions
based on events
Key takeaways
Following the path from
scenario to indicators to
monitoring to action

27. Contify
Start a conversation
Thank you
We’re glad you joined us today!
contact@contify.com
Fletcher/CSI
info@fletchercsi.com
SCIP
cmackey@scip.org