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Copyright © 2013 Clean Power Research, L.L.C
October 1, 2013
Prepared for
Minnesota Department
of Commerce,
Energy Division
Prepared by
Clean Power Research
Value of Solar Tariff
Methodology:
Proposed Approach
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Agenda
 Background
 Framework
 VOS Components
 Fleet Production Shape
 Loss Savings
 Economic Methods
2
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Agenda
Background
 Framework
 VOS Components
 Fleet Production Shape
 Loss Savings
 Economic Methods
3
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Legislation and Project Background
 Minnesota passed legislation* in 2013 that allows IOUs to
apply to the PUC for a Value of Solar (VOS) tariff as an
alternative to net metering.
 The methodology must meet certain requirements contained
in the legislation.
 Commerce must submit the VOS methodology to the PUC by
January 31, 2014. This methodology must be used by the IOUs
who apply for the VOS tariffs.
 Commerce selected Clean Power Research to support them in
the process of developing the methodology.
* MN Laws 2013, Chapter 85 HF 729, Article 9, Section 10
4
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
VOS Methodology Overview
 The VOS methodology
will specify which
components are to be
included, and how they
will be calculated.
 Inputs will include utility
costs, economic
assumptions, utility
loads, and may include
other external costs and
assumptions.
5
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
VOS Calculation Format
Economic
Value
X
Load Match
(No Losses)
X
Distributed
Loss
Savings =
Distributed PV
Value
($/kWh) (%) (%) ($/kWh)
Component 1 E1 M1 S1 D1
Component 2 E2 M2 S2 D2
Component 3 E3 M3 S3 D3
…
D4
Component N EN MN SN DN
Value of Solar
The VOS methodology will include
• methodology to determine hourly PV fleet production shape
• methodology to perform an economic analysis
• methodology for load match analysis (hourly PV/load correlation)
• methodology for marginal loss savings analysis
6
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
VOS Methodology: Statutory Requirements
 VOS is to include value to utility, its customers, and society.
 VOS must include: energy, delivery, generation capacity, transmission
capacity, transmission and distribution line losses, and environmental
value.
 VOS may include: other values into the methodology, including credit for
locally manufactured or assembled energy systems, systems installed at
high-value locations on the distribution grid, or other factors. If included,
these must be tied to utility costs/benefits.
 VOS represents present value of future value streams. It will be
recalculated annually. Contract term must be at least 20 years, same credit
per kWh over term.
 Implemented as a VOST credit (not a payment)
7
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Not Directly Included in VOS Methodology
The legislation includes implementation requirements that will not be
addressed in the report:
 Systems must be operated primarily for customer energy needs
(size limits)
 Interconnection dates
 Rate-setting for consumption and standby charges
 Credit amount must not be lower than the utility's applicable retail
rate for the first three years.
 Monthly credit carryovers and annual true-up
 Interconnection requirements
 Metering equipment
8
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
VOS Methodology Objectives
 Accurately account for all relevant value streams.
 Simplify input data set, where possible.
 Simplify methodology, where warranted.
 Easy to modify, if necessary, in future years.
 Provide transparency
• Will define a “VOS Intermediate Data Standard” explicitly identifying all key input
assumptions. (e.g., solar-weighted heat rate, distribution cost escalation rate, cost of
capacity). This will provide all stakeholders with comparable data across utilities and
other studies outside Minnesota.
• With the same intermediate dataset, all stakeholders will be able to derive the same
levelized $/kWh value.
• Will include an example calculation showing annual savings calculation details. This will
be used to further ensure that users of the methodology are performing calculations
correctly.
9
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
VOS Intermediate Data Standard
The methodology will include a required data format similar to this
10
Example Input Units Input Value:
PV Assumptions
PV degradation rate 0.50% per year
PV system life 25 years
Economic Factors
Discount rate 6.00% per year
General escalation rate 2.50% per year
Generation Factors
Gen capacity cost (installed) $1,000 per kW
Years until new capacity is needed 5 years
Heat rate (first year) 7050 BTU/kWh
Plant degradation 0.10% per year
O&Mcost (first Yyear) - Fixed $10.00 $ per kW-year
O&Mcost (first Yyear) - Variable $2.00 $ per MWh
O&Mcost escalation rate 2.50% per year
Reserve planning margin 15.0% %
NG Wholesale Market Factors
End of term nat gas futures escalation 3.00% per year
Fuel price overhead (annual average) 10.00% %
EXAMPLE
…
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Example VOS Calculation
The methodology will include a complete example calculation
11
Economic Factors and PV Production Fuel Value
Year
Analysis
Year
Utility
Discount
Factor
Risk-Free
Discount
Factor
Within PV
Service Life? PV Production
Discounted
PV Production Fuel Price
Burnertip
Fuel Price Heat Rate UOG Fuel Cost Fuel Savings
Disc. Fuel
Savings
(kWh) (kWh) ($/MMBtu) ($/MMBtu) (Btu/kWh) ($/kWh) ($) ($)
2014 0 1.000 1.000 1 16,053,576 16,053,576 $3.98 $3.98 8024 $0.032 $512,079 $512,079
2015 1 0.909 0.999 1 15,973,308 14,521,189 $3.82 $3.82 8024 $0.031 $489,604 $445,095
2016 2 0.826 0.994 1 15,893,442 13,135,076 $4.13 $4.13 8024 $0.033 $526,493 $435,118
2017 3 0.751 0.986 1 15,813,974 11,881,273 $4.53 $4.53 8024 $0.036 $574,912 $431,940
2018 4 0.683 0.971 1 15,734,904 10,747,151 $5.09 $5.09 8024 $0.041 $642,928 $439,129
2019 5 0.621 0.951 1 15,656,230 9,721,287 $5.66 $5.66 8024 $0.045 $711,200 $441,599
2020 6 0.564 0.927 1 15,577,949 8,793,346 $5.96 $5.96 8024 $0.048 $744,874 $420,462
2021 7 0.513 0.899 1 15,500,059 7,953,981 $5.85 $5.85 8024 $0.047 $728,171 $373,667
2022 8 0.467 0.872 1 15,422,559 7,194,737 $6.17 $6.17 8024 $0.049 $763,010 $355,950
2023 9 0.424 0.842 1 15,345,446 6,507,967 $7.02 $7.02 8024 $0.056 $864,169 $366,492
2024 10 0.386 0.809 1 15,268,719 5,886,752 $7.08 $7.08 8024 $0.057 $867,820 $334,582
2025 11 0.350 0.786 1 15,192,375 5,324,835 $7.18 $7.18 8024 $0.058 $875,716 $306,933
2026 12 0.319 0.762 1 15,116,413 4,816,555 $7.25 $7.25 8024 $0.058 $878,910 $280,048
2027 13 0.290 0.737 1 15,040,831 4,356,793 $7.34 $7.34 8024 $0.059 $886,222 $256,707
2028 14 0.263 0.713 1 14,965,627 3,940,917 $7.34 $7.34 8024 $0.059 $881,338 $232,084
2029 15 0.239 0.688 1 14,890,799 3,564,739 $7.67 $7.67 8024 $0.062 $916,076 $219,301
2030 16 0.218 0.663 1 14,816,345 3,224,468 $7.91 $7.91 8024 $0.064 $940,851 $204,757
2031 17 0.198 0.637 1 14,742,263 2,916,678 $8.21 $8.21 8024 $0.066 $970,891 $192,086
2032 18 0.180 0.612 1 14,668,552 2,638,268 $8.43 $8.43 8024 $0.068 $991,701 $178,366
2033 19 0.164 0.587 1 14,595,209 2,386,433 $8.70 $8.70 8024 $0.070 $1,018,388 $166,515
2034 20 0.149 0.563 1 14,522,233 2,158,637 $8.95 $8.95 8024 $0.072 $1,043,264 $155,075
2035 21 0.135 0.543 1 14,449,622 1,952,586 $9.21 $9.21 8024 $0.074 $1,068,202 $144,347
2036 22 0.123 0.523 1 14,377,374 1,766,202 $9.47 $9.47 8024 $0.076 $1,092,030 $134,152
2037 23 0.112 0.504 1 14,305,487 1,597,610 $9.73 $9.73 8024 $0.078 $1,116,581 $124,698
2038 24 0.102 0.485 1 14,233,960 1,445,111 $9.99 $9.99 8024 $0.080 $1,140,697 $115,810
2039 25 0.092 0.467 0 0 0 $10.25 $10.25 8024 $0.082 $0 $0
2040 26 0.084 0.449 0 0 0 $10.51 $10.51 8024 $0.084 $0 $0
2041 27 0.076 0.431 0 0 0 $10.78 $10.78 8024 $0.086 $0 $0
2042 28 0.069 0.414 0 0 0 $11.04 $11.04 8024 $0.089 $0 $0
2043 29 0.063 0.397 0 0 0 $11.31 $11.31 8024 $0.091 $0 $0
2044 30 0.057
Total 154,486,171 $7,266,989
EXAMPLE
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Agenda
 Background
Framework
 VOS Components
 Fleet Production Shape
 Loss Savings
 Economic Methods
12
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Billing Quantities
NET LOAD
PV AND NET LOAD
VOS FRAMEWORK:
Separates charges and credits
• VOS Credit applies to PV production
• Consumption charges apply to gross Customer Load
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Charges and Credits
 “credits the customer for all electricity generated by the solar
photovoltaic device"
 “charges the customer for all electricity consumed by the customer
at the applicable rate schedule for sales to that class of customer”
 Conclusions:
• The VOS credit will be associated with all production (not with “export”
energy)
• Rates for consumption will be based on gross consumption (not “net”
consumption)
• Rates and standby charges for consumption are not dependent upon
whether the customer has PV or not. Rates will allow utility to collect cost
of serving customers, independent of PV production. Future rates can be
designed to allow the utilities to recover the cost of VOS credits from all
customers.
14
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
No Cross Subsidization
No cross subsidization between solar and non-solar customers, or between
customers of different rate classes:
• All customers pay for consumption according to the applicable rate schedule. Solar
customers are treated the same as other customers with respect to consumption.
• VOS components that represent utility savings:
• The overall cost of service is not affected (e.g., the savings gained from
capacity costs is directly offset by increased cost of VOS credits).
• Since there is no increase in cost, there would be no impact on rates.
• VOS components that represent societal benefits:
• All customers (solar and non-solar) pay the same rates. If a societal benefit is
included in the VOS rate, this represents a new utility expense that is
recoverable through rates.
• This expense is recovered using the same ratemaking procedure as other
utility expenses.
• All customers (solar and non-solar) pay for this new expense through
consumption.
15
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
VOS Depends on Location and Orientation
 VOS could be differentiated
by location (PV resource,
distribution growth/costs,
LMP node) and orientation
 Utility service territory
provides some inherent
geographic differentiation
 These add substantial
complexity
 Value should be calculated
for utility “fleet,”
incorporating the diversity
of orientations and the
overall geographic diversity
16
Recommendation:
Calculate separate VOS for
each utility for each year,
applicable to most locations
and all orientations
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
VOS Depends on Penetration Level
 Much higher PV penetration results
in less effective capacity.
 This results in lower capacity value
for generation, transmission, and
distribution.
 To include this upfront:
• Requires forecast of PV penetration
levels
• Penalizes early adopters for solar
capacity brought by late adopters.
 Existing penetration is incorporated
in hourly loads
 Future year VOS calculation will
incorporate actual penetration for
that year.
17
Recommendation:
Assume current penetration for full
contract term; adjust each year when
VOS is recalculated.
Early adopters will have VOS
calculated with higher capacity
value
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
VOS Depends on Term
 Levelized value incorporates
value over a fixed study period
 Most value studies set study
period equal to useful PV
service life (20 to 30 years,
degradation included)
 Levelized value converts present
value to fixed contract term (20
years minimum as required by
legislation).
 Assume that valuation period is
the same as contract period to
avoid confusion.
 If PV life extends beyond
contract term, future credit can
be determined then.
18
Recommendation: Assume
• 25 year life,
• 25 year value,
• 25 year levelization
LevelizedValue($/kWh)
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
VOS Does Not Necessarily Depend on Rate
Class
 Framework
• A kWh produced and delivered to the grid by PV has a certain value, whether a
utility savings or a benefit to society.
• Whether the kWh was produced by a residential customer, a commercial customer,
an industrial customer, and agricultural customer, etc., it provides the same utility
savings or societal benefit.
• Systems that are larger, better maintained, better designed with fewer losses, etc.,
will deliver more energy than others, and consequently more total benefits.
 Conclusions
• The credit should be “pay for performance,” computed on a per-energy basis
(rather than a per-kW or similar basis).
• If the system is dirty, off-line, poorly designed, or otherwise not performing well,
this will be reflected in the credit amount.
• The credit should be the same for all kWh as delivered to the grid.
19
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Summary: VOS Proposed Framework
 VOS will be the same for all participants
• at a given utility
• who enter contract in a given year
• regardless of orientation
 VOS will represent current penetration level, unchanged for
all years of study period. Future VOS re-calculations will use
penetration level in that year. Other changes to methodology
are possible in future years.
 VOS credit will be fixed for all years of a fixed contract term.
20
Recommendation: the VOS Credit to be a
25 year levelized amount ($ per kWh) for
all PV production.
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Agenda
 Background
 Framework
VOS Components
 Fleet Production Shape
 Loss Savings
 Economic Methods
21
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
VOS Candidate Components (1 of 2)
22
Value Component Basis Legislative Guidance
Avoided Fuel Cost MISO energy market costs (portion
attributed to fuel).
Required (energy)
Avoided Plant O&M Cost MISO energy market costs (portion
attributed to O&M).
Required (energy)
Avoided Generation Capacity
Cost
Capital cost of generation to meet peak
load.
Required (capacity)
Avoided Reserve Capacity Cost Capital cost of generation to meet planning
margins and ensure reliability.
Required (capacity)
Avoided Transmission Capacity
Cost
Capital cost of transmission. Required (transmission capacity)
Avoided Distribution Capacity
Cost
Capital cost of distribution. Required (delivery)
Avoided Environmental Cost Cost to meet utility RPS obligations. Required (environmental)
Fuel Price Guarantee Cost to eliminate fuel price uncertainty
(natural gas, etc.).
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
VOS Candidate Components (2 of 2)
23
Value Component Basis Legislative Guidance
Credit for local mfg/assembly Local tax revenue tied to net
solar jobs
Optional (identified in
legislation)
Credit for high value distribution
locations
Optional (identified in
legislation)
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Other Possible Components May Include
24
Value Component Basis Legislative Guidance
Voltage Control Cost to regulate distribution (future
inverter designs)
Market Price Reduction Cost of wholesale power reduced according
to reduction in demand.
Disaster recovery Cost to restore local economy (requires
energy storage and islanding inverters)
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
T&D Losses
 Transmission and distribution line losses must be accounted
for in the VOS Credit. Loss savings will be included in the
calculation of each component, but they are not considered
separate components.
Example: if avoided fuel costs are calculated as $0.05 per kWh and loss
savings between the customer and the LMP node are 10% of PV output,
then the fuel savings is calculated as $0.05 x 1.1 = $0.055 per kWh.
25
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Which Benefits Should be Included?
 Decision is to be made by Department of Commerce with
inputs from stakeholders and Clean Power Research
26
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Agenda
 Background
 Framework
 VOS Components
Fleet Production Shape
 Loss Savings
 Economic Methods
27
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
A Lesson from San Diego on the
Peak Load Day (9/14/2012)
28
SDG&E Fleet (2012)
16,384 Behind the
meter PV systems
117 MW-AC Fleet
Capacity
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
A Lesson from San Diego on the
Peak Load Day (9/14/2012)
29
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6:00 12:00 18:00
Load(MW)
Hour Ending (PST)
SDG&E Load
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Time-Synchronized Solar Resource Data
& Assumed PV Fleet Specifications
30
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6:00 12:00 18:00
PVOutput(MWperMW-AC)
Load(MW)
Hour Ending (PST)
SDG&E LoadOrientation: South-30º
Data Set: SolarAnywhere
Effective Capacity: 56%
Prepared by
Non-Time-Synchronized Solar Resource Data
& Assumed PV Fleet Specifications
Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6:00 12:00 18:00
PVOutput(MWperMW-AC)
Load(MW)
Hour Ending (PST)
SDG&E Load
Orientation: South-30º
Data Set: PVWatts/TMY (1968)
Effective Capacity: 43% 31
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Time-Synchronized Solar Resource Data
Actual PV Fleet Specifications
32
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6:00 12:00 18:00
PVOutput(MWperMW-AC)
Load(MW)
Hour Ending (PST)
SDG&E Load
Orientation: SDG&E Fleet
Data Set: SolarAnywhere
Effective Capacity: 47%
Prepared b
Conclusion: Use Time-Correlated Solar Resource
Data and Actual PV Fleet Specifications
33y Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6:00 12:00 18:00
PVOutput(MWperMW-AC)
Load(MW)
Hour Ending (PST)
SDG&E LoadOrientation: South-30º
Data Set: SolarAnywhere
Effective Capacity: 56%
Orientation: SDG&E Fleet
Data Set: SolarAnywhere
Effective Capacity: 47%
Orientation: South-30º
Data Set: PVWatts/TMY (1968)
Effective Capacity: 43%
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Obtaining Fleet Production Shape
Details will be specified in methodology
Method Procedure Notes
OPTION 1
Fleet
Metered
Sub-sample
• Obtain hourly measured data from
sample of PV systems in territory
• All systems in place over load study
year
• Aggregate hourly sample output
• Divide hourly results by sample
capacity
• Unclear what minimum
sample size should be
• Must be random sample
covering diversity of
geographic locations and
orientations
OPTION 2
Full Fleet
Model
• Obtain system specifications (locations,
ratings, orientation, etc.)
• Model systems using satellite-based
resource data and temperature
• Divide hourly results by fleet capacity
• Same specifications can be
used for utility load
forecasting
34
Recommendation: Use Option 2
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
PV Capacity Rating Methods
 Multiple rating systems are in use by utility solar programs
• DC rating at Standard Test Conditions (STC)
• DC rating at PVUSA Test Conditions (PTC)
• AC rating w/o Losses (= DCptc X Inverter Efficiency)
• AC rating with Losses (= DCptc X Inverter Efficiency X SystemLossFactor)
• AC rating based on Inverter Nameplate
 Rating system is arbitrary, but must be used consistently
Example: Effective capacity is 50% of rating. For a 100 kW DC-STC system,
this could mean:
• 100 kW x 50% = 50 kW A 39%
• (100 kW x 90% x 95% x 85%) x 50% = 36 kW discrepancy!
35
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Inverter Nameplate Ratings are Inconsistent
36
Wide range –
inverter nameplate
is not a good rating
metric
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
VOS Rating Convention
Recommendation: Use kW-AC
kW-AC = DC-STC x Module Derate x Inverter Efficiency x Loss Factor
Example:
10 kW DC-STC
X 90% module derate factor
X 95% inverter load-weighted efficiency
X 85% other loss factor
7.27 kW-AC
37
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Agenda
 Background
 Framework
 VOS Components
 Fleet Production Shape
Loss Savings
 Economic Methods
38
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Generation Relates Linearly to Avg. Losses
Example of marginal loss savings calculation for a given hour
39
Without PV With PV Change
Generation 10,000 MW 9,000 MW 1,000 MW
Avg. Losses 10% 9%
Losses 1,000 MW 810 MW 190 MW
Loss Savings 19%
You can’t just
add 10% to PV
production!
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Loss Savings Methodology
 Methodology will require these inputs:
• Peak transmission loss (%)
• Average transmission loss (%)
• Peak distribution loss (%)
• Average distribution loss (%)
• Hourly load for analysis year
• Hourly fleet shape for analysis year
 Methodology will deliver four loss savings results:
• Energy loss savings (%) – distribution only
• Energy loss savings (%) – combined T&D
• Generation capacity loss savings (%)
• Distribution capacity loss savings (%)
40
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Agenda
 Background
 Framework
 VOS Components
 Fleet Production Shape
 Loss Savings
Economic Methods
41
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Economic Methods
 The VOS methodology document will document exactly how the
economic value of each component is to be calculated.
 The methodology will be described in sufficient detail so that any
stakeholder will derive the same value given the same input
dataset.
Example: Generation Capacity
Methodology will show how to escalate future cost, the formula for
amortizing cost over life of plant, the calculation of present worth of
overlapping PV life, the treatment of PV capacity degradation, the
discounting of future value, the application of effective PV capacity,
and the formula for levelization.
42
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Energy-Related VOS Components
• Definition
• Benefit from distributed PV generation’s
offset of wholesale energy purchases
• Includes fuel and variable O&M
• Methodology
• Equals PV output plus loss savings times
marginal cost
• Marginal energy costs are based on fuel
and O&M costs of generator operating on
the margin (CCGT)
43
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Generation Capacity-Related Components
• Definition
• Benefit from added capacity
provided to the generation
system by distributed PV
• Applies to:
• Gen capacity required to meet peak
load,
• Gen reserve capacity,
• Transmission capacity
• Fixed O&M
• Methodology
• Equals cost per kW times effective load
carrying capability (ELCC)
• Generation capacity cost is
based on capital cost of CCGT
• Capacity value begins in year zero
44
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Fuel Price Guarantee
• Definition
• Benefit that distributed PV
generation has no fuel price
uncertainty
• Methodology
• Calculated by determining how
much it would cost to minimize the
fuel price uncertainty associated
with natural gas generation
45
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Distribution Capacity Value
• Definition
• Benefit that distributed PV generation
provides in reducing the burden on
the T&D system and thus delaying the
need for capital investments in the
T&D system
• Methodology
• Equals the expected long-term
capacity-related upgrade cost, divided
by load growth, times financial term,
times the peak load reduction factor
46
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Environmental Value
• Definition
• Benefit that the environmental footprint of
PV is considerably smaller than that of fossil-
based generation
• Methodology
• Options:
• PV output times MN externalities values
(societal value)
• PV output times REC price (societal
value)
• PV output times solar “premium” (cost of
solar PPA over conventional PPA)
• PV output times cost of renewable PPA
times RPS percentage (utility savings)
47
Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce
Summary: VOS Calculation
The VOS methodology will include
• methodology to determine hourly PV fleet production shape
• methodology to perform an economic analysis
• methodology for load match analysis (hourly PV/load correlation)
• methodology for marginal loss savings analysis
48
Economic
Value
X
Load Match
(No Losses)
X
Distributed
Loss
Savings =
Distributed PV
Value
($/kWh) (%) (%) ($/kWh)
Component 1 E1 M1 S1 D1
Component 2 E2 M2 S2 D2
Component 3 E3 M3 S3 D3
…
D4
Component N EN MN SN DN
Value of Solar

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Value of Solar Tariff Methodology: Proposed Approach

  • 1. Copyright © 2013 Clean Power Research, L.L.C October 1, 2013 Prepared for Minnesota Department of Commerce, Energy Division Prepared by Clean Power Research Value of Solar Tariff Methodology: Proposed Approach
  • 2. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Agenda  Background  Framework  VOS Components  Fleet Production Shape  Loss Savings  Economic Methods 2
  • 3. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Agenda Background  Framework  VOS Components  Fleet Production Shape  Loss Savings  Economic Methods 3
  • 4. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Legislation and Project Background  Minnesota passed legislation* in 2013 that allows IOUs to apply to the PUC for a Value of Solar (VOS) tariff as an alternative to net metering.  The methodology must meet certain requirements contained in the legislation.  Commerce must submit the VOS methodology to the PUC by January 31, 2014. This methodology must be used by the IOUs who apply for the VOS tariffs.  Commerce selected Clean Power Research to support them in the process of developing the methodology. * MN Laws 2013, Chapter 85 HF 729, Article 9, Section 10 4
  • 5. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce VOS Methodology Overview  The VOS methodology will specify which components are to be included, and how they will be calculated.  Inputs will include utility costs, economic assumptions, utility loads, and may include other external costs and assumptions. 5
  • 6. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce VOS Calculation Format Economic Value X Load Match (No Losses) X Distributed Loss Savings = Distributed PV Value ($/kWh) (%) (%) ($/kWh) Component 1 E1 M1 S1 D1 Component 2 E2 M2 S2 D2 Component 3 E3 M3 S3 D3 … D4 Component N EN MN SN DN Value of Solar The VOS methodology will include • methodology to determine hourly PV fleet production shape • methodology to perform an economic analysis • methodology for load match analysis (hourly PV/load correlation) • methodology for marginal loss savings analysis 6
  • 7. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce VOS Methodology: Statutory Requirements  VOS is to include value to utility, its customers, and society.  VOS must include: energy, delivery, generation capacity, transmission capacity, transmission and distribution line losses, and environmental value.  VOS may include: other values into the methodology, including credit for locally manufactured or assembled energy systems, systems installed at high-value locations on the distribution grid, or other factors. If included, these must be tied to utility costs/benefits.  VOS represents present value of future value streams. It will be recalculated annually. Contract term must be at least 20 years, same credit per kWh over term.  Implemented as a VOST credit (not a payment) 7
  • 8. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Not Directly Included in VOS Methodology The legislation includes implementation requirements that will not be addressed in the report:  Systems must be operated primarily for customer energy needs (size limits)  Interconnection dates  Rate-setting for consumption and standby charges  Credit amount must not be lower than the utility's applicable retail rate for the first three years.  Monthly credit carryovers and annual true-up  Interconnection requirements  Metering equipment 8
  • 9. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce VOS Methodology Objectives  Accurately account for all relevant value streams.  Simplify input data set, where possible.  Simplify methodology, where warranted.  Easy to modify, if necessary, in future years.  Provide transparency • Will define a “VOS Intermediate Data Standard” explicitly identifying all key input assumptions. (e.g., solar-weighted heat rate, distribution cost escalation rate, cost of capacity). This will provide all stakeholders with comparable data across utilities and other studies outside Minnesota. • With the same intermediate dataset, all stakeholders will be able to derive the same levelized $/kWh value. • Will include an example calculation showing annual savings calculation details. This will be used to further ensure that users of the methodology are performing calculations correctly. 9
  • 10. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce VOS Intermediate Data Standard The methodology will include a required data format similar to this 10 Example Input Units Input Value: PV Assumptions PV degradation rate 0.50% per year PV system life 25 years Economic Factors Discount rate 6.00% per year General escalation rate 2.50% per year Generation Factors Gen capacity cost (installed) $1,000 per kW Years until new capacity is needed 5 years Heat rate (first year) 7050 BTU/kWh Plant degradation 0.10% per year O&Mcost (first Yyear) - Fixed $10.00 $ per kW-year O&Mcost (first Yyear) - Variable $2.00 $ per MWh O&Mcost escalation rate 2.50% per year Reserve planning margin 15.0% % NG Wholesale Market Factors End of term nat gas futures escalation 3.00% per year Fuel price overhead (annual average) 10.00% % EXAMPLE …
  • 11. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Example VOS Calculation The methodology will include a complete example calculation 11 Economic Factors and PV Production Fuel Value Year Analysis Year Utility Discount Factor Risk-Free Discount Factor Within PV Service Life? PV Production Discounted PV Production Fuel Price Burnertip Fuel Price Heat Rate UOG Fuel Cost Fuel Savings Disc. Fuel Savings (kWh) (kWh) ($/MMBtu) ($/MMBtu) (Btu/kWh) ($/kWh) ($) ($) 2014 0 1.000 1.000 1 16,053,576 16,053,576 $3.98 $3.98 8024 $0.032 $512,079 $512,079 2015 1 0.909 0.999 1 15,973,308 14,521,189 $3.82 $3.82 8024 $0.031 $489,604 $445,095 2016 2 0.826 0.994 1 15,893,442 13,135,076 $4.13 $4.13 8024 $0.033 $526,493 $435,118 2017 3 0.751 0.986 1 15,813,974 11,881,273 $4.53 $4.53 8024 $0.036 $574,912 $431,940 2018 4 0.683 0.971 1 15,734,904 10,747,151 $5.09 $5.09 8024 $0.041 $642,928 $439,129 2019 5 0.621 0.951 1 15,656,230 9,721,287 $5.66 $5.66 8024 $0.045 $711,200 $441,599 2020 6 0.564 0.927 1 15,577,949 8,793,346 $5.96 $5.96 8024 $0.048 $744,874 $420,462 2021 7 0.513 0.899 1 15,500,059 7,953,981 $5.85 $5.85 8024 $0.047 $728,171 $373,667 2022 8 0.467 0.872 1 15,422,559 7,194,737 $6.17 $6.17 8024 $0.049 $763,010 $355,950 2023 9 0.424 0.842 1 15,345,446 6,507,967 $7.02 $7.02 8024 $0.056 $864,169 $366,492 2024 10 0.386 0.809 1 15,268,719 5,886,752 $7.08 $7.08 8024 $0.057 $867,820 $334,582 2025 11 0.350 0.786 1 15,192,375 5,324,835 $7.18 $7.18 8024 $0.058 $875,716 $306,933 2026 12 0.319 0.762 1 15,116,413 4,816,555 $7.25 $7.25 8024 $0.058 $878,910 $280,048 2027 13 0.290 0.737 1 15,040,831 4,356,793 $7.34 $7.34 8024 $0.059 $886,222 $256,707 2028 14 0.263 0.713 1 14,965,627 3,940,917 $7.34 $7.34 8024 $0.059 $881,338 $232,084 2029 15 0.239 0.688 1 14,890,799 3,564,739 $7.67 $7.67 8024 $0.062 $916,076 $219,301 2030 16 0.218 0.663 1 14,816,345 3,224,468 $7.91 $7.91 8024 $0.064 $940,851 $204,757 2031 17 0.198 0.637 1 14,742,263 2,916,678 $8.21 $8.21 8024 $0.066 $970,891 $192,086 2032 18 0.180 0.612 1 14,668,552 2,638,268 $8.43 $8.43 8024 $0.068 $991,701 $178,366 2033 19 0.164 0.587 1 14,595,209 2,386,433 $8.70 $8.70 8024 $0.070 $1,018,388 $166,515 2034 20 0.149 0.563 1 14,522,233 2,158,637 $8.95 $8.95 8024 $0.072 $1,043,264 $155,075 2035 21 0.135 0.543 1 14,449,622 1,952,586 $9.21 $9.21 8024 $0.074 $1,068,202 $144,347 2036 22 0.123 0.523 1 14,377,374 1,766,202 $9.47 $9.47 8024 $0.076 $1,092,030 $134,152 2037 23 0.112 0.504 1 14,305,487 1,597,610 $9.73 $9.73 8024 $0.078 $1,116,581 $124,698 2038 24 0.102 0.485 1 14,233,960 1,445,111 $9.99 $9.99 8024 $0.080 $1,140,697 $115,810 2039 25 0.092 0.467 0 0 0 $10.25 $10.25 8024 $0.082 $0 $0 2040 26 0.084 0.449 0 0 0 $10.51 $10.51 8024 $0.084 $0 $0 2041 27 0.076 0.431 0 0 0 $10.78 $10.78 8024 $0.086 $0 $0 2042 28 0.069 0.414 0 0 0 $11.04 $11.04 8024 $0.089 $0 $0 2043 29 0.063 0.397 0 0 0 $11.31 $11.31 8024 $0.091 $0 $0 2044 30 0.057 Total 154,486,171 $7,266,989 EXAMPLE
  • 12. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Agenda  Background Framework  VOS Components  Fleet Production Shape  Loss Savings  Economic Methods 12
  • 13. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Billing Quantities NET LOAD PV AND NET LOAD VOS FRAMEWORK: Separates charges and credits • VOS Credit applies to PV production • Consumption charges apply to gross Customer Load
  • 14. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Charges and Credits  “credits the customer for all electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic device"  “charges the customer for all electricity consumed by the customer at the applicable rate schedule for sales to that class of customer”  Conclusions: • The VOS credit will be associated with all production (not with “export” energy) • Rates for consumption will be based on gross consumption (not “net” consumption) • Rates and standby charges for consumption are not dependent upon whether the customer has PV or not. Rates will allow utility to collect cost of serving customers, independent of PV production. Future rates can be designed to allow the utilities to recover the cost of VOS credits from all customers. 14
  • 15. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce No Cross Subsidization No cross subsidization between solar and non-solar customers, or between customers of different rate classes: • All customers pay for consumption according to the applicable rate schedule. Solar customers are treated the same as other customers with respect to consumption. • VOS components that represent utility savings: • The overall cost of service is not affected (e.g., the savings gained from capacity costs is directly offset by increased cost of VOS credits). • Since there is no increase in cost, there would be no impact on rates. • VOS components that represent societal benefits: • All customers (solar and non-solar) pay the same rates. If a societal benefit is included in the VOS rate, this represents a new utility expense that is recoverable through rates. • This expense is recovered using the same ratemaking procedure as other utility expenses. • All customers (solar and non-solar) pay for this new expense through consumption. 15
  • 16. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce VOS Depends on Location and Orientation  VOS could be differentiated by location (PV resource, distribution growth/costs, LMP node) and orientation  Utility service territory provides some inherent geographic differentiation  These add substantial complexity  Value should be calculated for utility “fleet,” incorporating the diversity of orientations and the overall geographic diversity 16 Recommendation: Calculate separate VOS for each utility for each year, applicable to most locations and all orientations
  • 17. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce VOS Depends on Penetration Level  Much higher PV penetration results in less effective capacity.  This results in lower capacity value for generation, transmission, and distribution.  To include this upfront: • Requires forecast of PV penetration levels • Penalizes early adopters for solar capacity brought by late adopters.  Existing penetration is incorporated in hourly loads  Future year VOS calculation will incorporate actual penetration for that year. 17 Recommendation: Assume current penetration for full contract term; adjust each year when VOS is recalculated. Early adopters will have VOS calculated with higher capacity value
  • 18. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce VOS Depends on Term  Levelized value incorporates value over a fixed study period  Most value studies set study period equal to useful PV service life (20 to 30 years, degradation included)  Levelized value converts present value to fixed contract term (20 years minimum as required by legislation).  Assume that valuation period is the same as contract period to avoid confusion.  If PV life extends beyond contract term, future credit can be determined then. 18 Recommendation: Assume • 25 year life, • 25 year value, • 25 year levelization LevelizedValue($/kWh)
  • 19. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce VOS Does Not Necessarily Depend on Rate Class  Framework • A kWh produced and delivered to the grid by PV has a certain value, whether a utility savings or a benefit to society. • Whether the kWh was produced by a residential customer, a commercial customer, an industrial customer, and agricultural customer, etc., it provides the same utility savings or societal benefit. • Systems that are larger, better maintained, better designed with fewer losses, etc., will deliver more energy than others, and consequently more total benefits.  Conclusions • The credit should be “pay for performance,” computed on a per-energy basis (rather than a per-kW or similar basis). • If the system is dirty, off-line, poorly designed, or otherwise not performing well, this will be reflected in the credit amount. • The credit should be the same for all kWh as delivered to the grid. 19
  • 20. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Summary: VOS Proposed Framework  VOS will be the same for all participants • at a given utility • who enter contract in a given year • regardless of orientation  VOS will represent current penetration level, unchanged for all years of study period. Future VOS re-calculations will use penetration level in that year. Other changes to methodology are possible in future years.  VOS credit will be fixed for all years of a fixed contract term. 20 Recommendation: the VOS Credit to be a 25 year levelized amount ($ per kWh) for all PV production.
  • 21. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Agenda  Background  Framework VOS Components  Fleet Production Shape  Loss Savings  Economic Methods 21
  • 22. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce VOS Candidate Components (1 of 2) 22 Value Component Basis Legislative Guidance Avoided Fuel Cost MISO energy market costs (portion attributed to fuel). Required (energy) Avoided Plant O&M Cost MISO energy market costs (portion attributed to O&M). Required (energy) Avoided Generation Capacity Cost Capital cost of generation to meet peak load. Required (capacity) Avoided Reserve Capacity Cost Capital cost of generation to meet planning margins and ensure reliability. Required (capacity) Avoided Transmission Capacity Cost Capital cost of transmission. Required (transmission capacity) Avoided Distribution Capacity Cost Capital cost of distribution. Required (delivery) Avoided Environmental Cost Cost to meet utility RPS obligations. Required (environmental) Fuel Price Guarantee Cost to eliminate fuel price uncertainty (natural gas, etc.).
  • 23. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce VOS Candidate Components (2 of 2) 23 Value Component Basis Legislative Guidance Credit for local mfg/assembly Local tax revenue tied to net solar jobs Optional (identified in legislation) Credit for high value distribution locations Optional (identified in legislation)
  • 24. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Other Possible Components May Include 24 Value Component Basis Legislative Guidance Voltage Control Cost to regulate distribution (future inverter designs) Market Price Reduction Cost of wholesale power reduced according to reduction in demand. Disaster recovery Cost to restore local economy (requires energy storage and islanding inverters)
  • 25. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce T&D Losses  Transmission and distribution line losses must be accounted for in the VOS Credit. Loss savings will be included in the calculation of each component, but they are not considered separate components. Example: if avoided fuel costs are calculated as $0.05 per kWh and loss savings between the customer and the LMP node are 10% of PV output, then the fuel savings is calculated as $0.05 x 1.1 = $0.055 per kWh. 25
  • 26. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Which Benefits Should be Included?  Decision is to be made by Department of Commerce with inputs from stakeholders and Clean Power Research 26
  • 27. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Agenda  Background  Framework  VOS Components Fleet Production Shape  Loss Savings  Economic Methods 27
  • 28. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce A Lesson from San Diego on the Peak Load Day (9/14/2012) 28 SDG&E Fleet (2012) 16,384 Behind the meter PV systems 117 MW-AC Fleet Capacity
  • 29. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce A Lesson from San Diego on the Peak Load Day (9/14/2012) 29 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6:00 12:00 18:00 Load(MW) Hour Ending (PST) SDG&E Load
  • 30. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Time-Synchronized Solar Resource Data & Assumed PV Fleet Specifications 30 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6:00 12:00 18:00 PVOutput(MWperMW-AC) Load(MW) Hour Ending (PST) SDG&E LoadOrientation: South-30º Data Set: SolarAnywhere Effective Capacity: 56%
  • 31. Prepared by Non-Time-Synchronized Solar Resource Data & Assumed PV Fleet Specifications Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6:00 12:00 18:00 PVOutput(MWperMW-AC) Load(MW) Hour Ending (PST) SDG&E Load Orientation: South-30º Data Set: PVWatts/TMY (1968) Effective Capacity: 43% 31
  • 32. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Time-Synchronized Solar Resource Data Actual PV Fleet Specifications 32 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6:00 12:00 18:00 PVOutput(MWperMW-AC) Load(MW) Hour Ending (PST) SDG&E Load Orientation: SDG&E Fleet Data Set: SolarAnywhere Effective Capacity: 47%
  • 33. Prepared b Conclusion: Use Time-Correlated Solar Resource Data and Actual PV Fleet Specifications 33y Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6:00 12:00 18:00 PVOutput(MWperMW-AC) Load(MW) Hour Ending (PST) SDG&E LoadOrientation: South-30º Data Set: SolarAnywhere Effective Capacity: 56% Orientation: SDG&E Fleet Data Set: SolarAnywhere Effective Capacity: 47% Orientation: South-30º Data Set: PVWatts/TMY (1968) Effective Capacity: 43%
  • 34. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Obtaining Fleet Production Shape Details will be specified in methodology Method Procedure Notes OPTION 1 Fleet Metered Sub-sample • Obtain hourly measured data from sample of PV systems in territory • All systems in place over load study year • Aggregate hourly sample output • Divide hourly results by sample capacity • Unclear what minimum sample size should be • Must be random sample covering diversity of geographic locations and orientations OPTION 2 Full Fleet Model • Obtain system specifications (locations, ratings, orientation, etc.) • Model systems using satellite-based resource data and temperature • Divide hourly results by fleet capacity • Same specifications can be used for utility load forecasting 34 Recommendation: Use Option 2
  • 35. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce PV Capacity Rating Methods  Multiple rating systems are in use by utility solar programs • DC rating at Standard Test Conditions (STC) • DC rating at PVUSA Test Conditions (PTC) • AC rating w/o Losses (= DCptc X Inverter Efficiency) • AC rating with Losses (= DCptc X Inverter Efficiency X SystemLossFactor) • AC rating based on Inverter Nameplate  Rating system is arbitrary, but must be used consistently Example: Effective capacity is 50% of rating. For a 100 kW DC-STC system, this could mean: • 100 kW x 50% = 50 kW A 39% • (100 kW x 90% x 95% x 85%) x 50% = 36 kW discrepancy! 35
  • 36. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Inverter Nameplate Ratings are Inconsistent 36 Wide range – inverter nameplate is not a good rating metric
  • 37. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce VOS Rating Convention Recommendation: Use kW-AC kW-AC = DC-STC x Module Derate x Inverter Efficiency x Loss Factor Example: 10 kW DC-STC X 90% module derate factor X 95% inverter load-weighted efficiency X 85% other loss factor 7.27 kW-AC 37
  • 38. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Agenda  Background  Framework  VOS Components  Fleet Production Shape Loss Savings  Economic Methods 38
  • 39. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Generation Relates Linearly to Avg. Losses Example of marginal loss savings calculation for a given hour 39 Without PV With PV Change Generation 10,000 MW 9,000 MW 1,000 MW Avg. Losses 10% 9% Losses 1,000 MW 810 MW 190 MW Loss Savings 19% You can’t just add 10% to PV production!
  • 40. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Loss Savings Methodology  Methodology will require these inputs: • Peak transmission loss (%) • Average transmission loss (%) • Peak distribution loss (%) • Average distribution loss (%) • Hourly load for analysis year • Hourly fleet shape for analysis year  Methodology will deliver four loss savings results: • Energy loss savings (%) – distribution only • Energy loss savings (%) – combined T&D • Generation capacity loss savings (%) • Distribution capacity loss savings (%) 40
  • 41. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Agenda  Background  Framework  VOS Components  Fleet Production Shape  Loss Savings Economic Methods 41
  • 42. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Economic Methods  The VOS methodology document will document exactly how the economic value of each component is to be calculated.  The methodology will be described in sufficient detail so that any stakeholder will derive the same value given the same input dataset. Example: Generation Capacity Methodology will show how to escalate future cost, the formula for amortizing cost over life of plant, the calculation of present worth of overlapping PV life, the treatment of PV capacity degradation, the discounting of future value, the application of effective PV capacity, and the formula for levelization. 42
  • 43. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Energy-Related VOS Components • Definition • Benefit from distributed PV generation’s offset of wholesale energy purchases • Includes fuel and variable O&M • Methodology • Equals PV output plus loss savings times marginal cost • Marginal energy costs are based on fuel and O&M costs of generator operating on the margin (CCGT) 43
  • 44. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Generation Capacity-Related Components • Definition • Benefit from added capacity provided to the generation system by distributed PV • Applies to: • Gen capacity required to meet peak load, • Gen reserve capacity, • Transmission capacity • Fixed O&M • Methodology • Equals cost per kW times effective load carrying capability (ELCC) • Generation capacity cost is based on capital cost of CCGT • Capacity value begins in year zero 44
  • 45. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Fuel Price Guarantee • Definition • Benefit that distributed PV generation has no fuel price uncertainty • Methodology • Calculated by determining how much it would cost to minimize the fuel price uncertainty associated with natural gas generation 45
  • 46. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Distribution Capacity Value • Definition • Benefit that distributed PV generation provides in reducing the burden on the T&D system and thus delaying the need for capital investments in the T&D system • Methodology • Equals the expected long-term capacity-related upgrade cost, divided by load growth, times financial term, times the peak load reduction factor 46
  • 47. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Environmental Value • Definition • Benefit that the environmental footprint of PV is considerably smaller than that of fossil- based generation • Methodology • Options: • PV output times MN externalities values (societal value) • PV output times REC price (societal value) • PV output times solar “premium” (cost of solar PPA over conventional PPA) • PV output times cost of renewable PPA times RPS percentage (utility savings) 47
  • 48. Prepared by Clean Power Research for Department of Commerce Summary: VOS Calculation The VOS methodology will include • methodology to determine hourly PV fleet production shape • methodology to perform an economic analysis • methodology for load match analysis (hourly PV/load correlation) • methodology for marginal loss savings analysis 48 Economic Value X Load Match (No Losses) X Distributed Loss Savings = Distributed PV Value ($/kWh) (%) (%) ($/kWh) Component 1 E1 M1 S1 D1 Component 2 E2 M2 S2 D2 Component 3 E3 M3 S3 D3 … D4 Component N EN MN SN DN Value of Solar