The national economy is recovering but growth will remain weak. While the recession is over, unemployment will stay high for some time. Consumers remain cautious with high debt and weak confidence. The housing market is still declining with foreclosures and underwater mortgages remaining problems. The Arizona economy is also recovering slowly without strong population growth. Job growth has been flat and housing permits are still far below peak levels.
Global Economy and Agriculture in Transition presented by Terry Barr with CoBank at the 2013 Agri-Growth Council Annual Meeting and Speakers Conference.
Global Economy and Agriculture in Transition presented by Terry Barr with CoBank at the 2013 Agri-Growth Council Annual Meeting and Speakers Conference.
Toronto real estate statistics january 2012John Helfrich
Toronto Real Estate Market Statistics for January 2012. Focus on East End Toronto Homes and East End Toronto Real Estate. The Toronto Beaches, Riverdale, Leslieville, Danforth Village, East Danforth, Danforth Mosaic.
Toronto real estate statistics august 2011John Helfrich
Toronto Real Estate Market Statistics for August 2011. Focus on East End Toronto Homes and East End Toronto Real Estate. The Beaches, Riverdale, Leslieville, Danforth Village, East Danforth, Danforth Mosaic
Toronto Real Estate Statistics september 2011John Helfrich
Toronto Real Estate Market Statistics for September 2011. Focus on East End Toronto Homes and East End Toronto Real Estate. The Beaches, Riverdale, Leslieville, Danforth Village, East Danforth, Danforth Mosaic
2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo)PublicFinanceTV
"Economic Outlook for 2014 and Beyond" presented by Michael Brown, Economist with Wells Fargo Securities, on December 13, 2013, at the Winter 2013 NCLGBA Conference, Asheville, NC.
Toronto real estate statistics October 2011John Helfrich
Toronto Real Estate Market Statistics for October 2011. Focus on East End Toronto Homes and East End Toronto Real Estate. The Beaches, Riverdale, Leslieville, Danforth Village, East Danforth, Danforth Mosaic
Our lead Newsletter Article, “Will 2014 Be a Happy New Year?” discusses retiring Fed Chair Bernanke’s prediction, and consensus economists’ belief, that we will have a strong recovery in 2014. The Wise Old Owl talks about what your business should do to have a strong 2014.
Stephen Slifer's presentation from the 2013 Year in Review Market Update event in Charleston, SC on January 14, 2014. Hosted by the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors. A review of the housing market activity in the Charleston, South Carolina metro area and the economic factors affecting market activity in 2013.
Money And Trade Considered by John Law
Money and Trade Considered
With a Proposal for Supplying the Nation with Money
by John Law
1705
Money and Trade Considered with a Proposal for Supplying the Nation
with Money.
Edinburgh.
Printed by the Heirs and Successors of Andrew Anderson, Printer to the
Queens most Excellent Majesty,
Anno DOM. 1705.
Presentation shared by author at the 2015 EDEN Open Classroom Conference "Open Discovery Space: Transforming schools into innovative learning organisations" held on 18-21 September 2015, in Athens, Greece.
Find out more on #OCCAthens here: http://www.eden-online.org/eden-events/open-classroom-conferences/athens2015.html
Toronto real estate statistics january 2012John Helfrich
Toronto Real Estate Market Statistics for January 2012. Focus on East End Toronto Homes and East End Toronto Real Estate. The Toronto Beaches, Riverdale, Leslieville, Danforth Village, East Danforth, Danforth Mosaic.
Toronto real estate statistics august 2011John Helfrich
Toronto Real Estate Market Statistics for August 2011. Focus on East End Toronto Homes and East End Toronto Real Estate. The Beaches, Riverdale, Leslieville, Danforth Village, East Danforth, Danforth Mosaic
Toronto Real Estate Statistics september 2011John Helfrich
Toronto Real Estate Market Statistics for September 2011. Focus on East End Toronto Homes and East End Toronto Real Estate. The Beaches, Riverdale, Leslieville, Danforth Village, East Danforth, Danforth Mosaic
2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo)PublicFinanceTV
"Economic Outlook for 2014 and Beyond" presented by Michael Brown, Economist with Wells Fargo Securities, on December 13, 2013, at the Winter 2013 NCLGBA Conference, Asheville, NC.
Toronto real estate statistics October 2011John Helfrich
Toronto Real Estate Market Statistics for October 2011. Focus on East End Toronto Homes and East End Toronto Real Estate. The Beaches, Riverdale, Leslieville, Danforth Village, East Danforth, Danforth Mosaic
Our lead Newsletter Article, “Will 2014 Be a Happy New Year?” discusses retiring Fed Chair Bernanke’s prediction, and consensus economists’ belief, that we will have a strong recovery in 2014. The Wise Old Owl talks about what your business should do to have a strong 2014.
Stephen Slifer's presentation from the 2013 Year in Review Market Update event in Charleston, SC on January 14, 2014. Hosted by the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors. A review of the housing market activity in the Charleston, South Carolina metro area and the economic factors affecting market activity in 2013.
Money And Trade Considered by John Law
Money and Trade Considered
With a Proposal for Supplying the Nation with Money
by John Law
1705
Money and Trade Considered with a Proposal for Supplying the Nation
with Money.
Edinburgh.
Printed by the Heirs and Successors of Andrew Anderson, Printer to the
Queens most Excellent Majesty,
Anno DOM. 1705.
Presentation shared by author at the 2015 EDEN Open Classroom Conference "Open Discovery Space: Transforming schools into innovative learning organisations" held on 18-21 September 2015, in Athens, Greece.
Find out more on #OCCAthens here: http://www.eden-online.org/eden-events/open-classroom-conferences/athens2015.html
Presentation shared by authors at the 2015 EDEN Open Classroom Conference "Open Discovery Space: Transforming schools into innovative learning organisations" held on 18-21 September 2015, in Athens, Greece.
Find out more on #OCCAthens here: http://www.eden-online.org/eden-events/open-classroom-conferences/athens2015.html
D&B Analysis | Flat Spot in US Economic Recovery (Fall 2012)Dun & Bradstreet
In this report, D&B confirms a flat spot in US economic recovery for the first half of 2012. Unfortunately, the second half of 2012 is likely to reflect the same.
Presentation by Christine M. Todd, CEO of NVAR, at the 5th Annual Appraisal Summit on June 16, 2010. This event took place at the NVAR Herndon Service Center
The Economy and Financial Markets: Crawling Out of Recession - David Wyss, Br...IFG Network marcus evans
David Wyss, Brown University/Standard & Poor - Speaker at the 2012 IFG Wealth Management Forum, delivered his presentation entitled The Economy and Financial Markets: Crawling Out of Recession
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookLatvijas Banka
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
Residential Housing Market Outlook - NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence YunWRAR
Housing Market Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings
Washington, D.C.
May 12, 2011
You’re thinking of buying a home? Congratulations -- it’s an exciting
process. And it can be a lot of fun. You get to envision the type
of lifestyle you want for yourself (and your family). Do you want
a beautiful two-story home close to your work? Do you want a
modern, stylish condo in the heart of downtown? Are you yearning
to live near the beach, the mountains, restaurants, good schools,
museums, or family?
One of the greatest things about purchasing your own home is
that you get to make it yours. Even before you move in, you’re in
charge of making the decisions about which home you will buy.
It’s a powerful feeling -- having total control. But it can also be a bit
overwhelming, especially when you’re doing it for the first time.
That’s why we wrote this guide. We want to make purchasing a home
less scary and give you the confidence to move forward through
each step of the process -- from beginning to end, when you move into your new home!
You’re thinking of buying a home? Congratulations -- it’s an exciting
process. And it can be a lot of fun. You get to envision the type
of lifestyle you want for yourself (and your family). Do you want
a beautiful two-story home close to your work? Do you want a
modern, stylish condo in the heart of downtown? Are you yearning
to live near the beach, the mountains, restaurants, good schools,
museums, or family?
One of the greatest things about purchasing your own home is
that you get to make it yours. Even before you move in, you’re in
charge of making the decisions about which home you will buy.
It’s a powerful feeling -- having total control. But it can also be a bit
overwhelming, especially when you’re doing it for the first time.
That’s why we wrote this guide. We want to make purchasing a home
less scary and give you the confidence to move forward through
each step of the process -- from beginning to end, when you move into your new home!
Loan-Level Price Adjustment (LLPA) Matrix
This document provides the LLPAs applicable to loans delivered to Fannie. LLPAs are assessed based upon certain eligibility or other loan features, such as credit score, loan purpose, occupancy, number of units, product type, etc. Special feature codes (SFCs) that are required when delivering loans with these features are listed next to the applicable LLPAs. Not all loans will be eligible for the features described in this Matrix and unless otherwise noted, FHA, VA, Rural Development (RD) Section 502 Mortgages, HUD Section 184 Mortgages, and matured balloon mortgages (refinanced or modified, per Servicing Guide requirements) redelivered as fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) are excluded from these LLPAs. This Matrix is incorporated by reference into the Selling Guide, and the related Selling Guide provision or Selling Guide announcement governs if there is an inconsistency. Refer to the Selling Guide, Eligibility Matrix, and your contracts with Fannie Mae to determine loan eligibility.
As a member of the National Guard
or Reserve you may qualify for
a wide range of benefits offered
by the Department of Veterans
Affairs (VA). VA is here to help
you and your family understand
the benefits for which you may
be eligible and how to apply for
them. VA benefits include disability
compensation, pension, home loan
guaranty, education, health care,
insurance, vocational rehabilitation
and employment, and burial.
Here’s a few of the Pathway to Purchase program highlights:
1. The DPA will be 10% of the purchase price, up to a maximum of $20,000.
2. The Program is limited to the following 17 Cities:
a. Arizona City, Avondale, Buckeye, Casa Grande, Coolidge, Douglas, El Mirage, Fort Mohave, Goodyear, Huachuca City, Laveen, Maricopa, Red Rock, Sierra Vista, Snowflake, Tucson, Yuma.
3. The Pathway to Purchase program will carry a five-year, no interest, no payment forgivable second mortgage.
4. Program funding is provided by the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Hardest-Hit Fund with a $48 million allocation through the AZ Home Foreclosure Prevention Funding Corp.
5. The available underlying mortgage type is the Fannie Mae HFA Preferred at a max LTV / CLTV - 95%/105%.
6. Many of the current HOME Plus DPA program guidelines will be the same.
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
1. Meyers‐Pollack Quarterly
2010 Fourth Quarter
Double Dip or Just a Lousy Year?
Main Themes Economy at Glance: What are the Experts Saying?
National National Consensus Forecast
If you liked 2010, you will like 2011. Gross Domestic Product
Credit markets remain difficult for most consumers, small businesses and Panelists lowered expectations due to waning fiscal stimulus and small
residential mortgage loans. contributions to business inventories. 2010 = 2.9% and 2011 = 2.8%
Until those markets ease, any normal recovery remains problematic. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Normal drivers of a recovery (consumers / housing) remain under pressure. Expected to improve in 2010 and 2011.
So far the recovery has been mainly driven by inventories, exports Industrial Production
& business equipment. Set to moderate in second half of 2010 now that business inventories are
Consumers still paying down debt and increasing savings. more closely aligned with underlying demand.
Issues in housing still being resolved. Inflation
Restructuring of consumer balance sheet not yet complete. Consensus forecasts for inflation have begun to show signs of stabilization (2.1%).
Jobs and hours worked looking better. Housing
Unemployment rate will stay high. Housing starts are expected to reach 800,000 (down from previous forecast
Policy uncertainty remains a big issue. of 980,000). A normal year is 1.5 million.
Arizona Arizona Consensus Forecast
Recovery has begun in Arizona, but normal drivers of recovery are weak. Population
Job growth (seasonally adjusted) has been relatively flat since January 2010. Net migration growth is slow but should further accelerate by the end of 2010.
Lack of population growth is a big issue. When will it resume and Employment
how fast will it recover? Soon and very slowly. Month / month seasonally adjusted employment growth turned positive
It will be a while until Arizona is once again one of the most rapidly growing states. this summer. Employment expected to be up 1.5% in 2011.
New housing should recover progressively over the next few years, but it will Personal Income
be 2014 – 2015 until builders have to build to accommodate all new demand. Personal income growth is still weak – due mainly to lack of significant job growth.
The decline in housing prices is probably not over. Retail Sales
Other problems include: Sales activity has turned positive after several quarters of decline.
High levels of vacant single family units Housing Permits
Continued foreclosures Permits in 2010 are expected to be the same as in 2009. Permits in 2011 will show
50% of homes in state are underwater a large percent increase but will still be 80% off the peak in 2005.
Mortgage standards remain tight
Prepared by:
The best source for economic and real estate information.
Elliott D. Pollack & Co. Meyers Builder Advisors
www.arizonaeconomy.com www.builderadvisors.com
2. Meyers‐Pollack Quarterly
2010 Fourth Quarter
The National Economy
The U.S. economy turned positive in the 3rd quarter of 2009, thus signaling the end of the recession. While the recession is technically over, the unemployment rate will remain high
for some time and the job recovery will be relatively weak. The consumer will continue to be cautious in coming quarters due to uncertainty in the job market and the residual of
negative wealth effects associated with lower home values and weak stock market. Yet, while consumers are still carrying too much debt and consumer confidence still remains at
levels associated with weakness, there has been a substantial improvement in both areas. This should allow some upturn in retail sales.
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product
National Employment U.S. Leading Indicators
Annual Growth 1970-2011*
Percent Change Month Ago, Annualized 1978-2010*
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis & Blue Chip Indicators 1981-2010* Source: The Conference Board
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 120
8%
8.0%
110
6% 6.0%
100
4.0%
4%
90
2.0%
2% 80
0.0%
70
0% -2.0%
-4.0% 60
-2%
-6.0% 50
-4%
-8.0% 40
19 0
19 1
19 2
19 3
19 4
19 5
76
19 7
78
19 9
80
19 1
19 2
19 3
84
19 5
86
19 7
88
19 9
90
19 1
92
19 3
19 4
19 5
19 6
97
19 8
99
20 0
01
20 2
03
20 4
05
20 6
20 7
20 8
09
20 0
11
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
Ja 8
Ja 9
Ja 0
Ja 1
Ja 2
Ja 3
Ja 4
Ja 5
Ja 6
Ja 7
Ja 8
Ja 9
Ja 0
Ja 1
Ja 2
Ja 3
Ja 4
Ja 5
Ja 6
Ja 7
Ja 8
Ja 9
Ja 0
Ja 1
Ja 2
Ja 3
Ja 4
Ja 5
Ja 6
Ja 7
Ja 8
Ja 9
0
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-1
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
n-7
n-7
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-1
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
* As of Sept 2010 * As of Aug 2010 * As of Aug 2010
Real GDP should be up in 2010 and 2011. Employment has been relatively flat after taking out the Leading Indicators continue to advance.
effects of short‐term U.S. Census workers.
Key Economic Indicators
Hour Worked U.S. Unemployment Rate Annual Growth at Recession End v. One Year Later
Quarterly Percent Change 1980-2010* Source: NAHB; Census; BEA; BLS
2000 - 2010* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 30%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 12.00%
26.7%
6.0%
25%
4.0% Average of 8 Prior Recoveries Current Recovery
10.00%
20%
2.0%
0.0% 8.00% 15%
-2.0% 10.0% 9.8%
6.00% 10% 8.2%
-4.0% 6.6% 6.0% 5.9%
5% 4.1% 4.2%
-6.0% 3.0% 2.7% 2.4%
4.00%
-8.0% 0%
-0.1%
-10.0% 2.00%
-5%
-12.0%
0.00%
-7.5%
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
-10%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
00
00
01
01
02
02
03
03
04
04
05
05
06
06
07
07
08
08
09
09
10
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-1
Housing Retail Sales Industrial GDP Non- Nonfarm Nonfarm
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Starts Production residential payroll employment
construction
* As of Q2 2010
Businesses are trying to get all they can out of existing The unemployment rate remains high. Key economic variables during this recovery remain weak
workers before hiring new ones. despite how far they fell during the recession.
3. Meyers‐Pollack Quarterly
2010 Fourth Quarter
The National Economy: The Consumer
Consumer confidence turned around from its downward spiral earlier this year, but remains relatively flat since mid‐2009. Households continue to pay off debt and save more. The
financial obligation ratio is back to pre‐boom levels. Do consumers feel uncomfortable about debt levels or is it due to consumers' inability to get loans? Probably both, but the latter
will continue. A return to a free spending consumer will take quite a while.
Real Personal Income Household Net Worth
Consumer Confidence
Percent Change Quarter Ago, Annualized 1970 – 2010*
1978-2010* 1971 – 2010* Source: Federal Reserve
Source: The Dismal Scientist Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
70
150 14.0%
140 12.0%
60
130 10.0%
120 8.0%
50
110 6.0%
100 4.0%
40
90 2.0%
80 0.0%
30
70 -2.0%
60 -4.0% 20
50 -6.0%
40 -8.0% 10
30 -10.0%
20
-12.0% 0
Ja 8
Ja 9
Ja 0
Ja 1
Ja 2
Ja 3
Ja 4
Ja 5
Ja 6
Ja 7
Ja 8
Ja 9
Ja 0
Ja 1
Ja 2
Ja 3
Ja 4
Ja 5
Ja 6
Ja 7
Ja 8
Ja 9
Ja 0
Ja 1
Ja 2
Ja 3
Ja 4
Ja 5
Ja 6
Ja 7
Ja 8
Ja 9
0
n-7
n-7
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-1
19 1 Q1
19 Q1
19 Q1
19 Q1
19 5 Q1
19 Q1
19 7 Q1
19 Q1
19 Q1
19 0 Q1
19 Q1
19 2 Q1
19 Q1
19 Q1
19 Q1
19 Q1
19 Q1
19 Q1
19 9 Q1
19 Q1
19 Q1
19 Q1
19 3 Q1
19 Q1
19 5 Q1
19 Q1
19 Q1
19 Q1
20 Q1
20 0 Q1
20 Q1
20 2 Q1
20 Q1
20 Q1
20 5 Q1
20 Q1
20 7 Q1
20 Q1
20 9 Q1
Q1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
20 Q2
20 Q3
20 Q4
20 Q1
20 Q2
20 Q3
20 Q4
Q1
Ja
70
71
72
73
75
76
77
78
80
81
82
83
85
86
87
88
90
91
92
93
95
96
97
98
00
01
72
73
74
76
78
79
81
83
84
85
86
87
88
90
91
92
94
96
97
98
99
01
03
04
06
08
10
02
03
05
06
07
08
10
7
7
7
8
8
8
9
9
0
0
0
0
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
19
* As of Aug 2010 * As of Aug 2010 * As of Q2 2010
Consumer confidence up to levels historically associated Real incomes are growing again. It will take sustained Household net worth turned positive in the fourth
with the bottom of a recession. employment and hours worked growth to push up the quarter of 2009. People will continue to feel better but
rate of growth. modestly so.
Financial Obligation Ratio Household Net Private Saving Real Retail Sales U.S.
1980-2010* 1971 - 2010* Percent Change Year Ago
Source: Federal Reserve Source: Free Lunch.com 1973-2010*
$1,200,000 Source: Federal Reserve
20.00%
15.00%
$1,100,000
$1,000,000
19.00% 10.00%
$900,000
$800,000
5.00%
18.00% $700,000
$600,000
0.00%
$500,000
17.00%
$400,000
-5.00%
$300,000
16.00%
$200,000
-10.00%
$100,000
15.00% $0
-15.00%
20 9 3
19 Q1
19 Q3
19 Q1
19 Q3
19 Q1
19 Q3
19 Q1
19 Q3
19 Q1
19 Q3
19 Q1
19 Q3
19 Q1
19 Q3
19 Q1
19 Q3
19 Q1
19 Q3
19 1
Q1
20 Q3
20 Q1
20 Q3
20 Q1
20 Q3
Q1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q
Ja 73
Ja 4
Ja 5
Ja 6
Ja 77
Ja 8
Ja 9
Ja 80
Ja 1
Ja 82
Ja 3
Ja 84
Ja 85
Ja 6
Ja 7
Ja 8
Ja 89
Ja 0
Ja 91
Ja 2
Ja 3
Ja 94
Ja 5
Ja 96
Ja 7
Ja 8
Ja 99
Ja 0
Ja 1
Ja 2
Ja 03
Ja 04
Ja 5
Ja 06
Ja 7
Ja 08
Ja 9
0
9
n-7
n-7
n-7
n-7
n-7
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-8
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-9
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-0
n-1
71
72
74
75
77
78
80
81
83
84
86
87
89
90
92
93
95
96
98
01
02
04
05
07
08
10
80
81
82
83
85
86
87
88
90
91
92
93
95
96
97
98
00
01
02
03
05
06
07
08
10
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
Ja
19
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
* As of Q1 2010 * As of Q1 2010 * As of June 2010
The financial obligation ratio is at levels first seen in The quantity of savings has almost doubled from pre‐ Retail sales has turned positive after several quarters of
1985 and not seen since 1999. How much more does it recession levels. This is a good sign. Savings needs to be decline.
have to fall before consumers feel comfortable? higher since consumers can no longer use their house as
Probably down to 16% or less. But, given consumers' a credit card and stocks are still way off of the peak.
inability to borrow, the ratio could go even lower.