- Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, presented on the recovery of the housing market to normalcy.
- Consumer confidence had reached awful lows but was improving, though unemployment remained high. Housing starts, sales and prices were stabilizing after the crisis and bust.
- Inventories remained high but were decreasing as demand increased. Distressed loans were declining. The credit bubble that caused the crisis was now dead.
- Economists expected a gradual increase in home prices over the next few years as the market recovered further toward normal levels and demand continued to outpace shrinking supply.
Dr Yun, NAR's cheif economist was in town last week and gave an excellent presentation about the Albuquerque real estate market and how it compared to other markets and the nation. See his slideshow here
Market Watch 2014 presentation - Dr. Lawrence Yunrealtorsgnar
NAR SVP and Chief Economist Lawrence Yun shared trends and forecasts for both the national and Middle Tennessee market at Market Watch 2014 (July 9, 2014).
September 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends ReportUnit Realty Group
Here’s September 2015’s Monthly Indicators report from the Greater Boston Association of Realtors®
September closed home sales up on strong buyer activity over the summer. Home prices continued to be pushed higher by strong demand and low supply in September. Six straight months of new listings added to the market are giving buyers more options.
• September single-family home sales – UP +15.0% over last year
• September Single-family median prices were UP +7.5% at $455,000
• September condo sales UP +4.1% and median prices were UP +3.4% at $428,500
• Inventory in September DOWN -10.1% to 3,870 and Condominiums DOWN -6.4% to 1,832
• SF listings added to the market in September UP +10.9% over last year. (2,040 from 1,839 in 2014)
• Condo listings added to the market UP +11.3% over last year. (1,421 from 1,277 in 2014)
CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton Young provides an economic update to the Murrieta Temecula Group and the Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors
Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist and senior vice president of research for the National Association of REALTORS presentation at the Charleston Trident Association of REALTORS 2012 Midyear Residential Real Estate Market Update. Dr. Yun shares national and local (Charleston, SC) data recapping market activity through July 2012 and offers a forecast for the remainder of 2012 and beyond.
Dr Yun, NAR's cheif economist was in town last week and gave an excellent presentation about the Albuquerque real estate market and how it compared to other markets and the nation. See his slideshow here
Market Watch 2014 presentation - Dr. Lawrence Yunrealtorsgnar
NAR SVP and Chief Economist Lawrence Yun shared trends and forecasts for both the national and Middle Tennessee market at Market Watch 2014 (July 9, 2014).
September 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends ReportUnit Realty Group
Here’s September 2015’s Monthly Indicators report from the Greater Boston Association of Realtors®
September closed home sales up on strong buyer activity over the summer. Home prices continued to be pushed higher by strong demand and low supply in September. Six straight months of new listings added to the market are giving buyers more options.
• September single-family home sales – UP +15.0% over last year
• September Single-family median prices were UP +7.5% at $455,000
• September condo sales UP +4.1% and median prices were UP +3.4% at $428,500
• Inventory in September DOWN -10.1% to 3,870 and Condominiums DOWN -6.4% to 1,832
• SF listings added to the market in September UP +10.9% over last year. (2,040 from 1,839 in 2014)
• Condo listings added to the market UP +11.3% over last year. (1,421 from 1,277 in 2014)
CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton Young provides an economic update to the Murrieta Temecula Group and the Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors
Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist and senior vice president of research for the National Association of REALTORS presentation at the Charleston Trident Association of REALTORS 2012 Midyear Residential Real Estate Market Update. Dr. Yun shares national and local (Charleston, SC) data recapping market activity through July 2012 and offers a forecast for the remainder of 2012 and beyond.
Our second Housing Summit included current housing trends and a look at our economy.
Our Keynote speaker is Lawrence Yun: Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.
Topics include: Local Residential & Commercial and 2015 Forecast
Economic and Housing Market Trends and OutlookNar Res
Jed Smith, Managing Director, Quantitative Research
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
North Carolina Real Estate Summit
Cary, North Carolina
July 16, 2013
Economic and Real Estate Outlook by Lawrence YunLana Tsarikaeva
Every year local realtors gather at the Computer History Museum in Moutain View for the annual Economic and Real Estate Update by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for National Association of Realtors. Below are my notes from the presentation.
1. Tax reform may harm the real estate, for more information, go to http://on.car.org/2017taxreform
2. Once the election ended the interest rates went up, mortgage rates are still low, expect interest rates increase in December 2017.
3. Housing shortage past 10 years across the United States, last time we had one after the World War Two. We are facing the same issue now. Reasons: too many regulations, shortage of lots, shortage of construction workers, domestic trade skill shortage.
4. Inventory, inventory, raise capital gain exemption at least for California.
5. We used to have Oversupply vs Loose lending rules, Today undersupply and Tight lending. Both are equally bad.
6. Fewer borrowers defaulting on mortgages in California due to 20% downpayment mandate.
7. Homeownership rate still near 50-year low
8. Student debt stops young generation to buy a house.
9. Solid jobs growth
10. Jobs opening skyrocketing
Slide oresentation by National Association of REALTORS Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun to members and friends of the St. Charles County Association of REALTORS
Economic and Real Estate Outlook Silicon Valley (October 2015)Susan Rits
Insights from yesterday's presentation at Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® by Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., National Association of Realtors Chief Economist.
February 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends ReportUnit Realty Group
Here’s February 2015’s Monthly Indicators report from the Greater Boston Association of Realtors®
February condo sales closed down by almost two percent compared to the year before. Median prices continued to go up as supply continues to be down. Sellers were waiting out Mother Nature to add their homes to the market keeping new listings down in February.
• February single-family home sales: UP +5.0% over February 2014; median prices UP +7.9% ($439,500)
• February condo sales DOWN -1.8% over February 2014; median prices UP +3.5% ($403,568)
• Inventory in February DOWN -29.3% to 1,992 and Condominiums Down -32.9% to 1,057
• SF listings added to the market in February DOWN -38.7% over last year. (700 from 1,141 in 2014)
• Condo listings added to the market DOWN -33.7% over last year. (615 from 927 in 2014)
Stephen Slifer's presentation from the 2013 Year in Review Market Update event in Charleston, SC on January 14, 2014. Hosted by the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors. A review of the housing market activity in the Charleston, South Carolina metro area and the economic factors affecting market activity in 2013.
Dr. Lawrence Yun's Economic Update at the Charleston Realtors Commercial Market Forecast event on November 15, 2018: Economic Trends and Outlook in a Rising Interest Rate Environment.
2016 Market Outlook Presentation by REALTOR.com's Jonathan SmokeJessKern
Start your 2016 with a look at what to expect in the residential and commercial real estate markets at our annual Market Outlook. Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist with REALTOR.com, share his predictions for our industry’s top emerging trends and opportunities.
Investing In The US As A Canadian… And How To Do It RIGHT!! (feat. Erwin Szet...Volition Properties
=== Investing In The US As A Canadian… And How To Do It RIGHT!! (feat. Erwin Szeto) ===
Ever been curious about Real Estate Investing in the US?? At Volition, for the past 14 years, we have been focused on helping investors invest in over $250M of real estate and generate $100M of wealth in the Toronto market, but we are always open to learning more about other business models and learning from other investors.
The US has always been an intriguing market to invest in. But the US is a big place… if you’re interested in investing in the US, you probably have a lot of questions, like:
☑️ Specifically WHERE should you invest?
☑️ What are the best markets to invest in and why?
☑️ How much are property prices there?
☑️ What are the returns like?
☑️ What is cashflow like?
☑️ Compared to investing in Toronto or other cities in Ontario, what are the benefits / tradeoffs?
☑️ What ownership structure should I use?
☑️ What are the tax implications?
☑️ Can I get financing?
☑️ What are tenants like?
Enter Erwin Szeto, a longtime friend of Volition. Since 2005, Erwin Szeto and his team have navigated the challenging landscape of being landlords in Ontario. Now, they are shifting their focus and guiding their clients' investments toward the more landlord-friendly environment of the USA. This decision comes after assisting Canadian clients in transacting over $440,000,000 in income properties. Faced with issues like affordability constraints, tenant-friendly laws, rent control, and rental licensing in Canada, Erwin sees a clear opportunity in the U.S. Here, there is a significant influx of investments leading to the creation of high-paying manufacturing jobs. Erwin and his clients are poised to capitalize on these opportunities where landlord rights are stronger and there is no rent control.
To facilitate this transition, Erwin has partnered with and become a client of SHARE, a one-stop-shop U.S. Asset Manager. Founded by Canadians for Canadians, SHARE enables as passive an ownership experience as possible for landlords in the U.S., while still maintaining direct, 100% ownership.
Erwin is “Making Real Estate Investing Great Again”!!
Website: https://www.infinitywealth.ca/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/iwinrealestate and https://www.facebook.com/ErwinSzetoOfficial
Podcast: https://www.truthaboutrealestateinvesting.ca/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/iwinrealestate/ and https://www.instagram.com/erwinszeto/
Referans Bahcesehir which is being constructed, in the center of the most regional destination as Bahçeşehir, shines out with its central location and unique landscape including social facilities such as a fitness center, sauna, sports facilities, children’s playground and recreational areas.
Not only drawing attention for immediate surroundings including commercial centers and private schools but also providing the easily accessible location with closeness to Tem Highway and connection roads, ongoing construction of 3rd Bridge Connection roads and Metro Projects
Bahcesehir is a rising value in the great city of Istanbul… Located at a new transportation junction in the northwest of the City… Located at such a spot that the access roads for the 3rd bridge and for the 3rd Airport will reach the region in 2016. The Marmaray and the Subway will extend all the way to Referans Bahcesehir respectively in 2018 and 2019.
465 flats and 34 stores are designed with an outstanding approach and arranged with a unique perspective offering the following options: 1 plus 1, 2 plus 1, 3 plus 1, 3.5 plus 1, 4 plus 1, and 4.5 plus 1. It is planned so as to safeguard you and your loved ones based upon a modern, technological safety approach. As you experience the joy and luxury here, you will be content and feet at ease.
It is worth seeing both inside and outside with heart-warming cafes, tasty restaurants and elegant stores… And it is ready to offer a vivacious social life with a warm and cozy space design.
A folding swimming pool and indoor swimming pools, playgrounds, Turkish bath, sauna… It has them all. Everything you need for your well-being and for having a pleasant time will be at your service. You simply need to align the rhythm of life with the rhythm of Referans Bahcesehir.
https://listingturkey.com/property/referans-bahcesehir/
The KA Housing - Catalogue - Listing TurkeyListing Turkey
Welcome to KA Housing, a distinguished real estate development nestled in the heart of Eyüpsultan, one of Istanbul’s most promising districts.
Just 10 minutes from the bustling city center, Eyüpsultan offers a serene escape with the convenience of urban living. The direct metro line ensures seamless connectivity to all parts of Istanbul, making it an ideal location for residents who seek both tranquility and vibrancy.
KA Housing boasts unparalleled accessibility, with proximity to Istanbul Airport only 30 minutes away, facilitating easy international travel. Effortless city access is guaranteed by direct metro and transportation links to Istanbul’s cultural and commercial hubs. Quick access to key metro lines connects you to every corner of the city within minutes, making commuting and exploring the city hassle-free.
The development offers luxurious living spaces with a range of unit layouts from 1+1 to 4+1, designed with meticulous attention to detail. Each unit features balconies or terraces, providing stunning vistas of Istanbul and enhancing the living experience. High-quality materials and superior craftsmanship ensure durability and elegance, while sound-proof insulation and high ceilings (2.95 m) offer comfort and sophistication.
Residents of KA Housing enjoy exclusive on-site amenities, including a state-of-the-art gym, outdoor swimming pool, yoga area, and walking paths. Entertainment options abound with a private cinema, children’s playground, and a variety of dining options including a café and restaurant. Security and convenience are paramount with 24/7 security, a dedicated carpark garage, and an IP intercom system.
KA Housing represents a prime investment opportunity with limited availability in a high-demand area, ensuring enduring value and potential for lucrative returns. Homes in this development provide exceptional value without compromising on quality, offering affordable luxury for discerning buyers. The construction is of the highest quality, built to the latest seismic and disaster resistance standards, ensuring safety and resilience.
The community and surroundings of KA Housing are enriched by close proximity to prestigious universities such as Haliç University, Bilgi University, and Istanbul Ticaret University, making it an ideal location for students and academics. The development is adjacent to the Alibeyköy stream leading into the Halic waters, offering serene natural escapes amidst lush greenery. Residents can enjoy the cultural richness of the area, surrounded by historical and cultural landmarks that blend leisure, nature, and culture seamlessly.
https://listingturkey.com/property/the-ka-housing/
Flat available for sale
Location- Tupudana, Ranchi
Savitri enclave
Area- 3BHK
Rate- 4000/sq.ft.
Super Build Up Area-1629 sq.ft.
Build-up area-1253 sq.ft.
Rate- 65lakh16k(approx)
Floor available- Flat available in all floor(G+12)
Balcony- 2
Washroom- 2
Parking - CAR PARKING
Amenities- Joggers track,temple, children's park,gym,banquet hall (5 Lakh)
Possession year (Handover year)- Dec 2025
Outside View from the apartment and flat balcony is very beautiful.
For more information contact AASHIYANA STAR PROPERTIES
7766900371
Omaxe Sports City Dwarka stands out as a premier residential and recreational destination, offering a blend of luxury and sports-centric living. Located in the thriving area of Dwarka, this project by Omaxe Limited is designed to cater to modern lifestyle needs while promoting a healthy, active living environment.
500 acres of brilliance await you here at Riverview City which offers modern living, effortless convenience, and a beautiful natural setting. It is a mega township by Magarpatta City in Loni Kalbhor, Pune. Enjoy easy access to work, schools, and fun while experiencing a perfect work-life balance.
Visit - magarpattacity.developerprojects.in
The SVN® organization shares a portion of their new weekly listings via their SVN Live® Weekly Property Broadcast. Visit https://svn.com/svn-live/ if you would like to attend our weekly call, which we open up to the brokerage community.
Simpolo Tiles & Bathware
Tile ho,
toh Simpolo.
Since the first steps were taken in 1977, Simpolo Ceramics has carved its niche as a consistently growing organisation with unparalleled innovation and passion rooted in simplicity.
We endure gratification for every experience we offer, created to share something meaningful. It may not resonate with the majority, but that makes us a class apart. If only a handful were to understand the purpose of our existence, we would be proud to have found our believers. Rather, people with whom we can share our beliefs.
VISUALIZER
Design your space in your style with our very own Visualizer. Now, you can choose the tiles of your liking from our wide selection and see how they would look in a space. Select the tile from the multiple options and the visualiser will replace the surfaces in the image with the selected tiles. This way, instead of just your imagination, you can choose the tiles for your place by getting an actual picture of how they would look in a space. So, design your space the way you desire digitally and implement it in real life to get the best results!
You can also share this visualiser with others to help them design their space.
Committed to delighting customers with world-class ceramic products and services. Make Simpolo synonymous with the best quality and set new benchmarks of excellence for all stakeholders. Pursue best business practices with utmost integrity to make Simpolo an exciting organisation to work with, for vendors, channel partners, investors and employees alike.
Gain worldwide recognition in the field of ceramic building products through Research and Innovation and bring an enhanced lifestyle within reach for every household.
Scanning tenants in NYC requires a thorough and compliant approach to ensure you find reliable renters. For a positive rental experience, consider hiring a property management service. Belgium Management LLC specializes in NYC rental property management and tenant relationship management. We prioritize tenant satisfaction, making us a trusted name in New York property management. Our dedicated team ensures tenants feel valued and supported throughout their lease.
Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024: Focus o...Joseph Lewis Aguirre
Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024: Focus on Public Safety as Job #1, Engagement, Wealth of HOA, Branding, Communication, Culture, Civic Responsibility
BricknBolt Understanding Load-Bearing Walls and Their Structural Support in H...BrickAndBolt
Load-bearing walls are the backbone of any home construction, providing crucial structural support that carries the weight of the house above. For companies like Brick and Bolt Mysore and Bricknbolt Faridabad, understanding and properly implementing these elements are key to constructing safe and durable buildings.
Rixos Tersane Istanbul Residences Brochure_May2024_ENG.pdfListing Turkey
Tersane Suites Residences is a luxurious real estate project located in the heart of Istanbul, next to the beautiful Golden Horn. This unique development offers hotel concept residences with Rixos management, making it the perfect choice for both homeowners and investors.
The Tersane Suites Residences offers a wide range of options, from studio apartments to spacious four-bedroom units, all designed to the highest standard. The suites are finished with high-quality materials and feature modern, open-plan living spaces, fully-equipped kitchens, and large balconies with stunning views of the city and sea.
One of the standout features of Tersane Suites Residences is the Rixos management, which provides a truly exclusive and upscale living experience. Residents will have access to a range of luxury amenities, including a fitness center, spa, and indoor and outdoor swimming pools. Plus, the on-site restaurants and cafes provide a taste of the local and international cuisine.
The Tersane Suites Residences also offers a great opportunity for investors, as it provides a rental guarantee program. This means that investors can enjoy a steady income stream, with the peace of mind that their property is being managed by a reputable and experienced team.
The location of Tersane Suites Residences is also unbeatable, with easy access to the city’s main transportation links and within close proximity to the historic center, making it the perfect base for exploring all that Istanbul has to offer.
Torun Center Residences Istanbul - Listing TurkeyListing Turkey
THERE IS LIFE IN ITS CENTER!
The most energetic spot of the city that will add utterly different pleasures to your life, with a park that will make Istanbul breathe, delighting indoor and outdoor bistros, cafes, restaurants, the brand-new Food Hall concept, where dozens of unique tastes are served together, market area, cinema, theater, fitness club, SPA and event venue...
All the pleasures that will enrich your lives are awaiting you on the most beautiful side of the city, at Torun Center Residences. In Mecidiyeköy, where the heart of Istanbul beats, business, life and entertainment opportunities are located at the exact center, at Torun Center, the most beautiful side of the city.
Penthouse apartments and different styles of flats from 1 + 1 to 4 + 1, from 100 to 425 square meters in a 42-story residence tower, have been designed for those who want to live in the center of magnificence. Torun Center is the redefinition of a better life with specially landscaped floor gardens, apartment options with private balconies, and automatic glass systems equipped with Trickle Ventilation that offers clean air comfort.
Business and life in the same place
Excellent service
Torun Center has many delightful details, from a swimming pool to sunbathing and resting terrace. With 24/7 concierge services, 24/7 security, valet, technical service, closed-circuit camera system (CCTV), central heating and cooling system, it makes your life easier.
Delightful details
The two-story Torun Center Lounge, with its indoor and outdoor seating areas, children's playroom, private dining and TV lounge, promises unforgettable memories to you and your loved ones with its unique Istanbul view.
Neighboring to the most pleasant square of Istanbul
A few steps from the Torun Center Residences, you can reach the city's most modern city square and open the doors of a quality city life. Torun Center Residences brings together on the same project the long-awaited city life for Istanbul and gourmet restaurants, cafes, gym and SPA, and state-of-the-art cinema and Artı Stage, hosting the most famous plays of the season.
Located at the intersection of alternative public transportation options such as the metro and Metrobus, Torun Center comes to the fore as the most accessible office for both sides of Istanbul. With a central location and rich transportation lines, Torun Center offices make life easier for employees and increase productivity.
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1. Recovery to Normalcy
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Annual Meetings
New Orleans, LA
November 5, 2010
10. Total Payroll Jobs in the U.S.
(same as in 2000, but with 30 million more people)
124000
126000
128000
130000
132000
134000
136000
138000
140000 2000-Jan
2000-Jul
2001-Jan
2001-Jul
2002-Jan
2002-Jul
2003-Jan
2003-Jul
2004-Jan
2004-Jul
2005-Jan
2005-Jul
2006-Jan
2006-Jul
2007-Jan
2007-Jul
2008-Jan
2008-Jul
2009-Jan
2009-Jul
2010-Jan
2010-Jul
11. How Many Years to Get Job Market
Back to Normal?
Jobs added per month Assumed new jobs needed
for growing population per
month
How many years?
100,000 100,000 Treading water and
never back to normal
200,000 100,000 6.3 years
300,000 100,000 3.2 years
400,000 100,000 2.1 years
16. New Home Sales (Contracts)
70
270
470
670
870
1070
1270
1470
2001-Feb
2001-Aug
2002-Feb
2002-Aug
2003-Feb
2003-Aug
2004-Feb
2004-Aug
2005-Feb
2005-Aug
2006-Feb
2006-Aug
2007-Feb
2007-Aug
2008-Feb
2008-Aug
2009-Feb
2009-Aug
2010-Feb
2010-Aug
Where is the
tax credit impact?
17. High Existing Home Inventory
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000-Feb
2000-Jun
2000-Oct
2001-Feb
2001-Jun
2001-Oct
2002-Feb
2002-Jun
2002-Oct
2003-Feb
2003-Jun
2003-Oct
2004-Feb
2004-Jun
2004-Oct
2005-Feb
2005-Jun
2005-Oct
2006-Feb
2006-Jun
2006-Oct
2007-Feb
2007-Jun
2007-Oct
2008-Feb
2008-Jun
2008-Oct
2009-Feb
2009-Jun
2009-Oct
2010-Feb
2010-Jun
Months Supply
Total homes on the market
(in millions)
18. Distressed Loans and Shadow Inventory
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2006/Q1
2006/Q2
2006/Q3
2006/Q4
2007/Q1
2007/Q2
2007/Q3
2007/Q4
2008/Q1
2008/Q2
2008/Q3
2008/Q4
2009/Q1
2009/Q2
2009/Q3
2009/Q4
Thousands
Mortgage Payments
Past Due 30-59 Days
Mortgage Payments
Past Due 90+ Days
Mortgage
Foreclosures Started
Mortgage
Foreclosure Inventory
Bad loans are nearly always made in good
times. But recently originated loans are
performing very well.
21. Return to Normalcy
• Unprecedented Boom and Bust: 2000 to 2010
• Sales Boomed and Retreated
• Prices Overshot and Corrected
• Fundamentals Back to Justifiable Levels
• Long-standing Housing Policy still in place
• Credit Market Bubble … out the window
29. Home Price and Construction Cost
(No Bubble)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2000-Feb
2000-May
2000-Aug
2000-Nov
2001-Feb
2001-May
2001-Aug
2001-Nov
2002-Feb
2002-May
2002-Aug
2002-Nov
2003-Feb
2003-May
2003-Aug
2003-Nov
2004-Feb
2004-May
2004-Aug
2004-Nov
2005-Feb
2005-May
2005-Aug
2005-Nov
2006-Feb
2006-May
2006-Aug
2006-Nov
2007-Feb
2007-May
2007-Aug
2007-Nov
2008-Feb
2008-May
2008-Aug
2008-Nov
2009-Feb
2009-May
NAR Price Index
PPI Residential Construction Cost Index
30. Long Standing Housing Policy
• Mortgage Interest Deduction
– If eliminated, there will be about a 15% hit to home values
– Massive wealth destruction for property owners who have
saved and saved (in many cases to pass it on to the next
generation)
• FHA
– Self-financing without ever needing taxpayer funds (as of
yet)
• Fannie and Freddie
– Made mistakes and need to be restructured
31. Credit Bubble Dead
Subprime, Alt-A, Home Equity Mortgage Origination
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2003 2005-2006 2009-2010
Source: NAR estimate based on Inside Mortgage Finance data
$ billion
33. Compelling Affordability
Monthly Mortgage to buy a Median Priced Home
2005 Q2 2010 Q2
San Diego $ 2,833 $ 1,564
Miami $ 1,726 $ 853
Milwaukee $ 1,014 $ 797
Kansas City $ 735 $ 600
34. Economists Expect Price Increases in Upcoming Years
• Macromarkets, a firm associated with Professor Robert Shiller, surveys
about 100 economists about home price outlook.
• The consensus forecast as of August 2010 (which can be found from
Macromarkets or from news media stories such as Wall Street Journal)
are for
• 0.78% price increase in 2011
• 2.43% price increase in 2012
• 3.20% price increase in 2013
• 3.69% price increase in 2014
• No forecast for 2015 and beyond
36. Inflationary Pressure ?
Indicator % change from one year ago
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 1.1%
Housing Rent Component CPI 0.2% (but heading higher?)
Producer Price Index (Finished Product) 4.0%
Producer Price Index (Intermediate Product) 5.5%
Producer Price Index (Crude Product) 20.2%
Commodity: Coffee, Cotton, Wheat, Meat Very high
Gold Price Record High Price
37. CPI-Housing Rent Inflation
(Home price is not part of CPI because of asset/investment aspect)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005-Jan
2005-Apr
2005-Jul
2005-Oct
2006-Jan
2006-Apr
2006-Jul
2006-Oct
2007-Jan
2007-Apr
2007-Jul
2007-Oct
2008-Jan
2008-Apr
2008-Jul
2008-Oct
2009-Jan
2009-Apr
2009-Jul
2009-Oct
2010-Jan
2010-Apr
2010-Jul
%
Housing Rent Inflation
38. Baseline Outlook
• Moderate GDP Expansion 2 to 2.5% in the next 2
years (historical average is 3%)
• 1.5 million annual job additions in the next 2
years
• Unemployment rate of 8% in 2012 … and normal
6% in 2015
39. Baseline Outlook Cont’d
• Mortgage Rates rising to 5.0% in 2011 and 5.9% in 2012
• People fussing about home values could miss out on low rates
• Home values – no meaningful change in the national price in the
next 2 years
• Home sales to be choppy, but overall improving, in line with job
growth … 5.2 million in 2011 (up from 4.8 m in 2010, but same as in
2000)
• Affordability conditions are too compelling
• There may be some pent-up demand. 30 million additional people
compared to 2000, but same number of home sales as in 2000.
40. Alternative Possibility
• High inflation: people desire tangible investment like real
estate, but interest rate will be higher
• Deflation: people hold back for better price, which holds back
economy
• Budget deficit tipping point: higher interest rate and sharp cut
backs in standards of living
• Sharp 4% to 5% GDP growth … release of pent-up housing
demand (30 million more people today versus 2000 when
home sales were similar) … surprisingly higher home sales and
home prices
41. Virtuous or Vicious Cycle?
• Home values stabilizing scenario
– Foreclosures steadily fall
– Strategic default lessens and underwater homeowners become
hopeful
– FHA and Fannie/Freddie finances improve (will need less
taxpayer funds)
– Consumer spending opens up
– Home value stabilize further or even begin to rise …
– Self-sustaining normal growth rates in sales and prices
• Home values fall meaningfully … ugly scenario
Editor's Notes
This graph shows the number of distressed loans by category. The bottom category is the foreclosure inventory, which as you can has been steadily rising but the increase over the last 2 quarters of 2009 tempered off some. The green group are foreclosures started which have also decreased in the last quarter of 2009. this is, as I will talk about it more later on, due to pressure on mortgage companies to modify distressed loans and minimize the numbers going into foreclosure. Many states have also put moratorium on foreclosures towards the end of the year. The pink group are mortgages 90+ days past due which have also leveled out at the end of 2009. finally is the orange group, which are newly delinquent loans and that is the most positive news, showing that loans entering delinquent status are decreasing and possibly indicating that the foreclosure crisis in 2010 might not be as bad as was in 2009.