Presentation by Christine M. Todd, CEO of NVAR, at the 5th Annual Appraisal Summit on June 16, 2010. This event took place at the NVAR Herndon Service Center

1. Fifth Annual
Appraisal Summit
Special Presentation
by :
Christine M. Todd
Chief Executive Officer
NVAR
June 16,2010

2. Have We Hit Bottom?
All indicators say" yes”
Recovery slow and painful
Not all sectors recovering at the same time
First-time buyers and cash investors still driving
h
the recovery

3. 2010: Year of the Comeback!
Signs of Improving Local Market
g p g
Home prices stabilizing with small increases
Interest rates on commercial mortgages and
construction loans still affordable
Investors purchasing inventory with cash
I h i i ih h
Job losses and unemployment show improvement
in our region
Economy will continue to expand in 2010
y p
Source: Gerald L. Gordon ,PH.D
President and CEO, Fairfax County Economic Development Authority

4. Housing Outlook
2010
2008 2009
forecast
Existing Home Sales 4.9
49m 5.2
52m 5.4
54m
New Home Sales 485 k 375 k 400 k
Home Price Growth -10% -13% 2% to 3%
Mortgage Rate
M t R t 6.1%
6 1% 5.1%
5 1% 5.3%
5 3%
Consumer confidence
Down Down Up
about home buying
Source: Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.,Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of NAR

5. 500,000
500 000 2.1 illi
2 1 million
new starts in VS
In 2006
2010

6. Future Housing Shortage?
Year
Y Housing Starts
H i St t Historical Normal
Hi t i l N l Cumulative
C l ti
Surplus/Deficit
2003 1.85 million 1.6 million + 0.25 million
2004 1.95 million 1.6 million + 0.60 million
2005 2.07 million 1.6 million + 1.07 million
2006 1.81 million 1.6 million + 1.28 million
2007 1.34 million 1.6 million +1.02 million
2008 0.90 million 1.6 million + 0.32 million
2009 0.55 million 1.6 million ‐ 0.73 million
2010 forecast 0.68 million 1.6 million ‐1.65 million
2011 forecast 0.95 million 1.6 million ‐ 2.30 million
Source: Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.,Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of NAR

7. 3 Factors Sustaining Foreclosures
Ongoing Resets of Payment Terms
Loss of Borrower Income
L fB I
Depressed Home Values

8. Sample Markets with Price Increases
% change from one year ago
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
San Diego Orange Cty Boston Houston Buffalo Washington Columbia
Source: Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.,Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of NAR

9. Recent National Pending Home Sales
(year-over-year % change)
Tax Credit Help to Sales
Despite 3 7 million job losses
3.7
40
30
20
10
0
07 r
20 Ap r
20 Ap r
ul
08 ul
ul
20 Jan
20 Jan
20 Jan
an
t
t
t
20 Ap
20 Oc
20 Oc
20 Oc
-10
-J
-J
-J
-J
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
08
09
07
08
09
07
07
08
09
09
10
20
20
20
20
-20
-30
Source: Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.,Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of NAR

10. Road to Stabilization…
Existing sales rose to 5.8 million annualized pace
58
PENDING SALES for April very strong (tax credit)
New Home sales are up double-digit % last year

11. PROCEED WITH CAUTION
Temporary slump for May and June (no tax credit)
Annualized sales pace may fall to 4.5 million
5.5
5 5 million unit sales needed for full recovery
7 million units were sold in 2005, record high
5.5 illi
5 5 million unit sales same as 2001
it l
4.9 in 2008
5.2 in 2009
Remember we are at 5.8 today

12. PRICES starting to stabilize
NVAR statistics on prices
Record high $569,826 JUNE, 2007
Record low $376,669 JAN, 2009
2010 average sales price ¼ $429,605
May average sales price $460,828
$

13. PENDING SALES
APRIL 2010 3 011
3,011
MAY 2010 1 901
1,901
June and July contracts, critical
data needed to project if recovery
is
i real!
l!

14. FUTURE HOME PRICES
Dr. Yun
Dr Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Over next 5 years sales to rise 2% annually
Fueled b
F l d by second-home market
dh k t
PRICES “at best price appreciation will be beat
CPI inflation by 1% point”

15. Distressed Home Sales
Foreclosed
35
30
25
20
15
10 Short-Sale
5
0
Source: Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.,Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of NAR

16. April Metro Area Single Family Home Sales and Prices
All data reported here is unadjusted for seasonality
% Change from 1
Median Price Year Ago
# MSA Apr‐09 Apr‐10 Price Sales
1 Atlanta 112,500 120,800 7.4% 6.0%
2 Baltimore 242,200 245,900 1.5% 33.9%
3 Boston 319,000 340,600 6.8% 41.8%
4 Cincinnati 120,000 129,400 7.8% 33.7%
5 Dallas 139,400 150,300 7.8% 29.1%
6 Houston 149,400 153,800 2.9% 26.6%
7 Indianapolis 106,400 124,600 17.1% 22.2%
8 Kansas City 133,600 143,300 7.3% 32.8%
9 Miami/Ft. Lauderdale
/ 196,000
, 225,000
, 14.8% 16.2%
10 Minneapolis 153,000 169,800 11.0% 17.1%
11 New Orleans 152,900 156,900 2.6% 16.4%
12 New York 370,800 381,200 2.8% 39.6%
13 Philadelphia
p 210,700
, 215,200
, 2.1% 34.1%
14 Phoenix 124,500 144,700 16.2% ‐0.7%
15 Pittsburgh 119,500 122,500 2.5% 42.2%
16 Portland 245,500 245,300 ‐0.1% 49.2%
17 San Antonio
San Antonio 149,200 143,300 ‐4.0%
4.0% 17.2%
18 San Diego 336,700 388,400 15.4% ‐6.9%
19 St. Louis 121,100 134,300 10.9% 7.8%
20 Washington DC 296,100 * 318,300 7.5% 18.2%

17. Dr. Yun’s predictions
“Over the next 12 months, I will
O th t th ill
be watching Lexington, KY and
Lexington
Washington, DC to outperform
the rest of the country”!

18. Commercial Real Estate…Lagging
Lagging behind economic recovery
Investment activity still down (where did it go?)
Credit i ill i h
C di is still tight
High vacancy rates keep rents competitive
NOTE: lowest multi-family vacancy rates will be in
multi family
San Jose, Pittsburg and Washington, DC.

19. MRIS Introduces Market Watch Videos
Visit the statistic page on MRIS com and look at the map of the MRIS
MRIS.com
service region. Simply click on the area of the map for which you
want to see the video, and a viewer will appear.

20. Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria & Falls Church
Statistics as of May, 2010
2010 2009 % Change
Sold Volume: $901,840,808 $781,162,490 15.45%
Avg. Sold Price: $460,828 $433,257 6.36%
Median Sold Price: $404,000 $375,000 7.73%
Total Units Sold: 1,957 1,803 8.54%
Avg. Days on Market:
g y 40 76 -47.37%
Avg.List Price Solds: $479,219 $467,995 2.40%
Avg. Sale Price/List: 96.16% 92.58%
Total Month Contract 1901 2637
Total NEW listings 2482 2857
Active Listings 7710 8050

21. NVAR.COM
NVAR COM
Market Statistics Monthly Reports
Quarterly Rental S i i
Q l R l Statistics
Annual Sales Summary y
Year-End Report
Quarterly T d i H i P bli ti
Q t l Trends in Housing Publication

22. Monthly Average Sold Price (Northern Virginia)
$600,000
$550,000
Avg. Sold Price 2000
Avg. Sold Price 2001
$500,000
Avg. Sold Price 2002
$450,000
Avg. Sold Price 2003
g
Avg. Sold Price 2004
$400,000
Avg. Sold Price 2005
$350,000
Avg. Sold Price 2006
g
Avg. Sold Price 2007
$300,000
Avg. Sold Price 2008
$250,000
Avg. Sold Price 2009
Avg. Sold Price 2010
$200,000

23. Prince William County, Manassas City &Manassas Park City
Statistics as of May, 2010
2010 2009 % change
Sold Dollar Volume: $191,632,409 $198,361,135 ‐3.39%
Average Sold Price: $268,393 $226,698 18.39%
Median Sold Price: $240,000 $190,000 26.32%
Total Units Sold: 714 875 ‐18.40%
Avg. Days on Market: 32 78 ‐58.97%
Avg. List Price Solds: $276,768 $242,551 14.11%
g /
Avg Sale Price/List: 96.97% 93.46%
Total Month Contract 726 1290
Total NEW listings
Total NEW listings 889 1096
Active listings 2947 3128

24. Loudoun County
Statistics as of May 10,2010
2010 2009 % Change
Sold Volume: $194,055,307 $160,436,664 20.95%
Average Sold P i
A S ld Price: $416,428
$416 428 $366,294
$366 294 13.69%
13 69%
Median Sold Price: $365,000 $324,500 12.48%
Total Units Sold: 466 438 6.39%
Avg.Days on Market: 44 86 -48.84%
Avg. List Price Solds: $438,245 $394,569 11.07%
Avg Sale Price/List
g / 95.02% 92.83%
Total Month Contract: 455 663
Total NEW listings 706 714
Active listings 2373 2338

25. Springfield Zip Code 22150
Statistics as of May ,2010
2010 2009 % Change
Sold Volume: $8,629,703 $11,829,501 -27.05%
Average Sold P i
A S ld Price: $308,204
$308 204 $303,321
$303 321 1.61%
1 61%
Median Sold Price: $315,000 $270,000 16.67%
Total Units Sold: 28 39 -28.21%
Avg.Days on Market: 31 93 -66.67%
Avg. List Price Solds: $313,330 $326,982 -4.18%
Avg Sale Price/List
g / 98.36% 92.76%
Total Month Contract: 29 54
Total
T l NEW listings
li i 24 38
Active listings 86 54

26. 2010 2009 % Change
Sold Volume: $12,752,500 $18,700,720 -31.81%
Avg.Sold Price: $289,830 $316,961 -8.56%
Median Sold Price: $265,000 $282,000 -6.03%
Total Units Sold: 44 59 -25.42%
Avg.Days on Market: 34 67 -49.25%
Avg.List Price for Solds: $301,952 $333,897 -9.57%
Avg Sale Price/List 95.99% 94.93%
Total Month Contract: 38 88
Total NEW listings: 52 85
Active Listing 172 242

27. 10,000
8,733 7,688
8,000
8 000 7,205
,
5,659 5,421
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

28. 2010 Active Listings May
14,000
14 000
11,554
12,000 10,240 10,757
10,000
8,050 7,710
8,000
6,000
3,395
4,000
2,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

29. SUPPLY and DEMAND
ACTIVE LISTINGS for MAY
2010 7,710
2009 8,050
2006 11,554 (record hi h)
11 554 ( d high)
2004 2,877 (record low)
, ( )

30. 2010 Sold Listings May
3,500 3,045
2,894
3,000
3 000
2,500 2,069
2,000 1 816 1,724 1 803 1,957
1,816 1,803 ,
1,500
1,000
500
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

31. 2010: Under Contracts (May)
3,000 2,637
2,500 2,149 2,043 2,166
1,901
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

32. 2010 Average Sales Price (NVAR) May
Record High- $578,689 (Ju e 2006)
eco d g $5 8,689 (June 006)
Record Low- $376,669 (January 2009)
600,000 $553,618 $549,197
$478,672 $460,828
500,000 $433,257
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

33. Tax Credit was Huge Success
1 million additional buyers
y
1 million fewer inventory
Reduced months supply by 2 to 2.5 months
25
Correspond to price impact of 5% to 8% points
Preserved Housing Wealth (mostly middle-class)
P d H i W lth ( tl iddl l )
by nearly $1 trillion
Limit future foreclosures
Source: Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.,Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of NAR

34. Total Sold Volume(in billions)
18 15.7
16
14
12 $11.0
$11 0
$9.7
10 $8.0 $8.2
8
6
4
2
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

35. Benefits of Living in Fairfax County
Unemployment rate is only 4.5%
U l t t i l 4 5%
Our h l
O schools provide a quality workforce
id lit kf
Our area has the highest median family income in
g y
the U.S.
Major companies relocated here, VW, Hilton, CSC,
j p
SAIC………
Listed as one of the safest communities in America
Source: Jerry Gordon, President and CEO of the Fairfax EDA

36. Job Change by Sector (Jan 2009 – Jan 2010)
Washington MSA (000s) Total
ota - 29,200
9, 00
Govt. sector grew more than expected
Prof. & Bus. Svcs -5
Federal Govt. 17
Educ & Health Svcs 3
State & Local Govt -7
7
Retail Trade -2
Leisure & Hosp. 1
Construction -13
13
Other Services -2
Financial -6
Information -6
6
Manufacturing -4
Wlse Trade -3
Transp. & Util. -3
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

37. 50%
45%
Northern Virginia
40%
35%
Suburban MD
30% District
Sub. MD.
25% N. Virginia
20%
D.C
D C.
15%
10%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

38. Well –Intended Policy Gone Bad
Appraiser getting paid less
Appraiser not familiar with properties
Consumers paying higher fee
Home b
H buyers wanting to buy but cannot
ti t b b t t
NAR working with GSEs on appraisal policies

39. NAR Influence
A new consumer-protection agency-armed
with broad powers to rein in bad mortgage
products and predatory lending practice
d t d d t l di ti
anywhere in the country is now a certainty
Uniform minimum standards for mortgages
and underwriting practices.

40. NAR Influence
Real estate appraisal
improvements, Terminate HVCC

41. Increase “Call To Action” participation
p p
“Preserve the wealth of the Middle Class”
Team up with NAHB
ea
Verify money spent on each new home purchase helping
the economy y
Target legislatures in states hardest hit by housing
recession

42. NAR Urges Senate to Pass
present home-buyer tax credit
extension closing deadline
to Sept. 30.
NAR Praises House Passage of
FHA Reform Bill th t would allow
R f that ld ll
the Federal Housing Administration
to adjust monthly premiums on mortgage insurance.
dj hl i i

43. Did you pay your fair share?
y p yy
Agent- $40 Broker- $99

44. Realtors® Federal Credit Union
www.realtorsfcu.org

45. Health Insurance
Realtors® Core Health Insurance Plan
Gua a eed acceptance
Guaranteed accep a ce
Low cost starting at $70.69 per month
Choose any provider
www.RealtorsCoreHealthInsurance.com/AE
www RealtorsCoreHealthInsurance com/AE

48. HouseLogic.com
Save Money Go Green
Engage
Maintain your
home Mortgage Interest
Deduction
D d ti
Taxes & Incentives Insurance
Blog /Articles

49. NAR Realtor Appraisal
NAR website offers information and resources
to Appraisers such as
Appraisal Foundation
Appraisal Essentials
Appraisal Dashboard
How to find an Appraiser
FAQ for appraisers about the REALTORS®
Guidelines for hiring Appraisers
NAR Member Benefits for Appraisers
To access more information please visit
information,
the Realtor Appraisal Site at
Realtor.org/Appraisal/
Realtor org/Appraisal/

50. Center for Realtor Technology Releases
Appraisal Dashboard
NAR’s Center for Realtor Technology (CRT) recently released an Appraisal
Dashboard. CRT takes ideas that come from the field and tries to make
useful technology applications from those ideas. The CRT blog indicates
that this tool came from an idea that an appraiser had and took to the
Minneapolis MLS; their main tech person then took this idea to CRT who
helped
h l d create the application.
t th li ti
The Appraisal Dashboard is a PHP based web application that connects to
live MLS data that provides a graphical search and display interface. You
can then export the data into the Uniform Residential Appraisal Report or
p pp p
MISMO format.
It is a free NAR member benefit and the software can be downloaded at
http://www.crt.realtors.org/cms/project/appraisal-dash

51. Get Insights Without Looking
Have Real Estate INSIGHTS delivered to your e-mail box as soon as
new content is posted each month. It's free to members as well as
non-members! Subscribe in the "My Account" section of Realtor.org.
y g
There s
There’s always more “INSIGHT-”full info. We will continue
INSIGHT full
over the next several months to upgrade and update Real
Estate INSIGHTS. In the meantime, remember to click on
the special “For more info” arrow icons throughout this
p g
issue. By clicking on this icon when reading
INSIGHTS, you can automatically link to another web site
for more detailed information.
http://www.realtor.org/research/reinsights

52. The median age of
Realtors® is 54.
The majority of members
are women with college
education.
The typical member has
been in the business for
10 years.

53. Where do our members work?
Non-franchised
Franchised subsidiary subsidiary of a
F hi d b idi
Other
of a national or national or regional
corporation 1%
regional corporation
9% 4%
Independent, non-
franchised company
Independent, franchised 54%
company
32%

54. Where to Find Your Copy?
Who are REALTORS®?
Economic, demographic, education
, tenure, agency relationship and
compensation of REALTORS® are
p
broken down. In addition, this
report takes an in-depth look at
office affiliation, type of firm, as
well as the use of the Internet and
ll h f h d
technology.
Please visit
Realtor.org/store
for more information

55. NVAR’s New GREEN Building

56. Thank You! Please attend:
• Annual Economic Summit
1 • September 16 (8:30 am to 12:30PM)
• Northern Virginia Community College
2
• Annual Convention & Trade Show
• October 12 (7:30 am to 5:00 PM)
• Northern Virginia Community College