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The Economy: How Are We Really Doing?

The document presents conflicting economic data from various sources on the state of the US economy. It shows data that indicates rising GDP, jobs, manufacturing and retail sales alongside data pointing to high unemployment, falling housing starts and declining economic indexes. The intent is to show that different economic indicators can suggest contradictory things, similar to blind men describing different parts of an elephant. It urges readers to consider long term trends rather than single monthly data points when evaluating the economy.

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The Economy— How are We REALLY doing?
The Economy THE FABLE OF THE BLIND MEN AND THE ELEPHANT
Economic analysis based on monthly changes in data is misleading. It’s Flying! It’s hit a wall! It’s going It’s to crash! in recovery! It’s in a recession! It’s stagnating!
“Economy Stagnates”
GDP Growing at a moderate rate
United States Real Gross Domestic Product 13,500 13,400 Billions of Chained Dollars 13,300 13,200 13,100 13,000 12,900 12,800 12,700 12,600
Quarterly Change in U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% Average Quarterly Change for the last 30 years—0.7 percent) -2.0% -2.5% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
“Hiring Grinds to a Halt”
Jobs are Growing
United States Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Jobs 140,000 138,000 Thousands of Jobs 136,000 134,000 132,000 130,000 128,000
United States Year-Over Change in NonFarm 2% Jobs 0% -2% -4% -6% Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. Job Growth in Review 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs U.S. Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs 30-year average is 1.2 percent. -4.3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S.Department of Statistics. Utah Bureau of Labor Workforce Services.
“Unemployment Still Stalled”
Unemployment is Trending Down
United States Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Number of Discouraged U.S. Workers has declined along with the Unemployment Rate 120% 12% Year-to-Year Change in Discouraged Workers 100% Year-to-Year Change in Discouraged Workers Unemployment Rate 10% Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate 80% 60% 8% 40% 6% 20% 0% 4% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -20% 2% -40% -60% 0% Source. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Unemployment Insurance Claims “exploded.”
Claims are Trending Down
United States Four-Week Moving Average of Seasonally Adjusted Initial Claims 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1/6/2007 1/6/2008 1/6/2009 1/6/2010 1/6/2011 1/6/2012 Source: U.S. Department of Labor
“Retail Sales Disappoint”
Sales have grown consistently
United States Real Retail and Food Service Sales 185,000 180,000 175,000 170,000 $ Millions 165,000 160,000 155,000 150,000 145,000 140,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
United States Light Truck and Car Sales 25 20 15 Millions 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
“Manufacturing Index Plunges”
Manufacturing has steadily Improved
United States Industrial Production Index 105 100 95 90 85 80 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
United States New Factory Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 $ Millions 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
“Housing Starts Surge”
Housing starts remain low. . .
United States 2,500 Housing Starts 2,000 1,500 Thousands 1,000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Beware. . .
In the Interest of Full Disclosure Recently, the economic “spin” is more positive.
CRITICAL CRITICAL MASS MASS CRITICAL CRITICAL MASS MASS CRITICAL CRITICAL MASS MASS
Excuse me for nagging
U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
My Not-So-Secret Formula • Year-Over Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs. – “Year-over” change between one month and the same month the previous year. (March 2010 employment compared to March 2009 employment). – Employment data is current and some of the best data around. – It’s easy. – Available for small areas. – Not what the Bureau of Labor publishes in their press release—not seasonally adjusted.
Most Importantly. . . • It works! • Nationally, when year- over growth rates trend down and eventually result in job loss, there has always a recession as defined by NBER.
The Local Story
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm 14% Jobs Washington County United States Utah 10% 6% 2% -2% -6% -10% Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Washington County Year-Over Job Change December 2011 (preliminary) Mining 29 Construction 97 Manufacturing 261 Wholesale Trade 140 Retail Trade 212 Transportation 230 Utilities 8 Information 7 Financial Activities 32 Up 1,770 jobs total Prof/Business Svcs 12 Education/Health/Social Svcs 73 Leisure/Hospitality 386 Other Services 111 Government 173 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011 Total 3% 4% Mining 11% 24% Construction 1% 3% Manufacturing 3% 12% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 3% 5% Information 2% 1% Financial Activities 2% 2% Utah Prof/Business Svcs 5% 0% Washington Ed/Health/Social Svcs 3% 1% Leisure/Hospitality 3% 6% Other Services 2% 6% Government 2% 2% Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
Washington County New Hires 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 New Hires 4,000 4-Qtr Moving Average 2,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics.
Washington County Industry Employment Distribution Construction Mining 7% <1% Manufacturing 5% Government Other Services 16% 3% Leisure/ Trade/ Hospitality Transportation Services /Utilities 14% 24% Education/ Health/ Social Services Information Professional/ 17% Business Financial 2% Services Activities Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. 8% 4%
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs 6% Iron U.S. Utah 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Iron County Year-Over Job Change December 2011 (preliminary) Mining 8 Construction -130 Manufacturing 30 Wholesale Trade 71 Retail Trade -21 Transportation 10 Utilities 5 Information -18 Financial Activities 1 Up 128 jobs total Prof/Business Svcs -116 Education/Health/Social Svcs -6 Leisure/Hospitality 193 Other Services 16 Government 85 Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services.
Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011 Total 3% 1% Mining 11% 9% Construction-20% 1% Manufacturing 3% 30% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 3% 2% Information 2% -14% Financial Activities 2% 0% Prof/Business Svcs 5% -10% Utah Ed/Health/Social Svcs 3% 0% 3% Iron Leisure/Hospitality 10% Other Services 2% 5% Government 2% 2% Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
Iron County New Hires 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 New Hires 1,500 1,000 4-Qtr Moving Average 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Iron County Industry Employment Distribution Government Mining Other Services 29% 1% 2% Construction 5% Leisure/ Hospitality Services Manufacturing 12% 9% Education/Health Trade/Transporta /Social Services tion/Utilities 11% 18% Professional/ Business Services Information 7% Financial 1% Activities Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. 5%
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm 14% Jobs United States Utah Kane County 10% 6% 2% -2% -6% -10% Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Kane County Year-Over Job Change December 2011 (preliminary) Mining 0 Up 40 jobs total Construction -23 Manufacturing 0 Wholesale Trade -1 Retail Trade -39 Transportation 5 Utilities 0 Information 2 Financial Activities 10 Prof/Business Svcs 9 Education/Health/Social Svcs 27 Leisure/Hospitality 49 Other Services -8 Government 6 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011 Total 3% 2% Mining 11% 0% Construction -23% 1% 3% Utah Kane Manufacturing 0% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 3% -8% Information 2% 13% Financial Activities 2% 10% Prof/Business Svcs 5% 17% Ed/Health/Social Svcs 3% 34% Leisure/Hospitality 3% 8% Other Services 2% -2% Government 2% 1% Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
Kane County 2011 Industry Employment Distribution Mining Manufacturing Trade/ Construction NA 3% Transportation/ 3% Utilities 14% Information Government NA 25% Financial Activities 4% Professional/ Business Services 2% Other Services 15% Leisure/ Hospitality Education/Health/ Services Social Services 30% 4% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Kane County New Hires 1,200 New Hires 4-Qtr Moving Average 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics.
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs 12% 10% Beaver U.S. Utah 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -16% Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Beaver Total -10% -12% Beaver Without -14% Construction -16% Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Beaver County Year-Over Job Change December 2011 (preliminary) Mining 27 Construction -67 Manufacturing 6 Wholesale Trade -2 Retail Trade 13 Transportation 7 Down 46 jobs total Utilities -2 Information -1 Financial Activities -3 Prof/Business Svcs -1 Education/Health/Social Svcs 1 Leisure/Hospitality -4 Other Services 2 Government -22 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011 Total 3% 0% Mining 11% 129% Construction 1% -46% Manufacturing 3% 9% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 3% 16% Information 2% -50% Financial Activities 2% -6% Prof/Business Svcs 5% -7% Utah Beaver Ed/Health/Social Svcs 3% 2% Leisure/Hospitality 3% -1% Other Services 2% 6% Government 2% -3% Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
Beaver 2011 Industrial Employment Distribution Covered Agriculture Government 19% Mining 28% 1% Construction 6% Manufacturing Other Services 3% 1% Leisure and Trade/Transportati Hospitality on/Utilities 15% 22% Educational, Healt h and Social Services Information 2% <1% Professional and Financial Activities Business Services 2% 1% Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
Beaver County New Hires 600 500 400 300 200 100 New Hires 4-Qtr Moving Average 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics.
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs 20% 16% Garfield U.S. Utah 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% -16% Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Garfield County Year-Over Job Change December 2011 (preliminary) Mining 0 Construction -60 Manufacturing 7 Wholesale Trade -3 Retail Trade 27 Transportation Down 183 jobs total 0 Utilities 0 Information -19 Financial Activities -6 Prof/Business Svcs -1 Education/Health/Social Svcs -46 Leisure/Hospitality -81 Other Services 3 Government -4 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011 Total 2.8% -9.4% Mining 11.3% 0.0% Construction 0.5% -57.7% Manufacturing 3.2% 20.6% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 2.8% 11.7% Information 1.8% -17.0% Financial Activities 1.8% -18.8% Prof/Business Svcs 5.4% -4.8% Ed/Health/Social Svcs 3.3% -17.5% Leisure/Hospitality 2.8% Utah -14.6% Other Services 2.0% Garfield 25.0% Government 1.5% -0.7% Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
Garfield County Industry Employment Distribution Construction Trade/ 3% Transportation/ Manufacturing Mining Utilities 1% NA 11% Information NA Financial Activities 1% Professional/ Government Business Services 28% 1% Education/Health/ Social Services 23% Other Services 1% Leisure/Hospitality Services 42% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Garfield County New Hires 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 New Hires 100 4-Qtr Moving Average 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics.
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% Utah U.S. 6% Kane 5% Washington Iron 4% Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates 13% 12% Utah U.S. Beaver Garfield 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Washington County Change in Gross Taxable Sales 21% 13% 10% 7% 7% 3% 4% 4% 3% 0% 0% -4% -3%-3%-1% -2% -6% -7% -11% -13% -11% -14% -17% -19% 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
Iron County Change in Gross Taxable Sales 20%20% 13% 10% 9% 4% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% -2% -4% -4%-4% -6% -6% -8% -10% -15% -16% -17% 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
Kane County Change in Gross Taxable Sales 35% 27% 25% 21% 16% 15% 16% 14% 12% 10%10% 9% 5% 7% 1% 0% -1% -6% -4% -4% -11% -18% -21% -29% 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
Beaver County Change in Gross Taxable Sales 72% 58% 42% 28% 19% 17% 19% 20% 17% 16% 16%14% 11% 11% 5% 6% -2% -8% -6% -6% -4% -17% -30% -37% 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
Garfield County Change in Gross Taxable Sales 31% 15% 13% 15%14% 12% 11% 9% 9% 7% 4% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% 1% -3% -4% -8% -8% -10% -16% 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
Year-over Change in MSA Area Housing Price Index (HPI) 50% St. George 40% Salt Lake 30% Las Vegas 20% Percent Change 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.
St. George MSA Housing Price Index 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx. Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.
Housing Affordability Continues to Improve 90 Housing Opportunity Index—% of homes which are 80 affordable to families with the median income. 70 60 U.S. Washington County 50 40 30 20 10 0 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: National Association of Homebuilders; Wells Fargo Bank.
“Serious” Foreclosure Rates June 2011 Salt Lake City MSA 4.4% 3.6% 8.0% Provo-Orem MSA 3.8% 3.1% 6.9% Ogden-Clearfield MSA 3.7% 3.0% 6.7% Foreclosure Rate Logan MSA 2.1%1.7% 3.8% 90+ Days Deliquency Rate St. George MSA 4.8% 3.8% 8.6% Las Vegas/Henderson MSA 12.0% 8.2% 20.2% Source:: Analysis of LPS applied Analytics data by Local Initiative Support Corporation.
June 2010-June 2011 Percentage Point Change in “Serious” Foreclosure Rates Salt Lake City MSA -0.4 Provo-Orem MSA -1.3 Ogden-Clearfield MSA -0.4 Logan MSA -0.5 St. George MSA -3.0 Las Vegas/Henderson MSA -4.1 Source:: Analysis of LPS applied Analytics data by Local Initiative Support Corporation.
Washington County Dwelling Unit Permits 3,7943,860 2009—lowest number since 1989. . . 2,697 2,678 2,256 2,114 2,019 1,995 1,929 1,888 1,687 1,740 1,514 1,519 1,266 1,267 980 870 846 682 605 91 92 19 3 94 95 96 97 19 8 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 20 7 20 8 09 10 11 9 9 0 0 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 * Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Annual Change in Washington County New Dwelling Unit Permits 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 *January-October 2011. Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
2011 Washington County New Dwelling Units by Community Enterprise 2 Hurricane 109 Ivins 73 LaVerkin 5 Leeds 1 Santa Clara 22 Springdale 0 St. George 364 Virgin 0 Washington City 251 Other 19 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
2011 Washington County Change in Permitted New Dwelling Units by Community Enterprise -2 Hurricane 37 Ivins 24 LaVerkin -2 Leeds 0 Santa Clara -8 Springdale -5 St. George 97 Virgin 0 Washington City -158 Other -8 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Washington County Dwelling Unit Permits 5,000 Home Permits 4,000 Homes Sold Difference 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 * Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research; Utah Association of Realtors.
Washington County New Nonresidential Building Permit Valuation $176.9 Millions of $ $143.4 $118.2 $119.2 $109.6 $107.5 $84.8 $75.2 $69.4 $68.9 $51.7 $46.8 $44.3 $43.6 $37.4 $39.6 $35.7 $32.0 $30.7 $16.1 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Washington County 2011 Permit Values by Building Type Single-family Homes $141,744 Condominiums $10,662 Manufactured / Mobile Homes $441 Residential Garages/Carports $1,683 Amusement & Recreation Bldgs $1,342 Churches & other Religious Bldgs $2,534 Industrial/Warehouse/Manufacturing Bldgs $2,255 Service Station/Repair Garages $850 Hospital & Institutional Bldgs $8,883 Office, Bank, Professional Bldgs $3,191 Public Utility Bldgs. (private) $316 School & Educational Bldgs. (private) $26,058 Retail, Mercantile, Restaurant $8,544 Agricultural Bldg. & Sheds $283 Other Nonresidential Bldgs $3,840 Structures other than Bldgs $8,849 Public Buildings & Projects $724 Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs $5,701 (Numbers in 000s) Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs $16,815 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Iron County Dwelling Unit Permits 941 864 773 656 591 557 474 417 432 309 307 315 276 197 140 119 63 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Annual Change in Iron County New Dwelling Unit Permits 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 *January-October 2011. Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
2011 Iron New Dwelling Units by Community Cedar City 34 Enoch 3 Paragonah 0 Parowan 1 Other 25 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
2011 Iron County Change in Permitted New Dwelling Units by Community Cedar City -12 Enoch -28 Paragonah 0 Parowan -1 Other -15 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Iron County New Nonresidential Building Permit Valuation $32.9 $33.1 Millions of $ $28.5 $27.3 $25.3 $24.0 $23.3 $19.8 $20.0 $17.4 $16.8 $13.3 $14.5 $13.2 $5.0 $4.4 $3.2 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Iron County 2011 Permit Values by Building Type Single-family Homes $9,823 Duplexes and Twin Homes $624 Manufactured / Mobile Homes $62 Residential Garages/Carports $405 Industrial/Warehouse/Manufacturing Bldgs $145 Public Utility Bldgs. (private) $20 Retail, Mercantile, Restaurant $40 Agricultural Bldg. & Sheds $247 (Numbers in 000s) Other Nonresidential Bldgs $1,408 Structures other than Bldgs $509 Public Buildings & Projects $442 Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs $1,171 Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs $4,932 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Kane County Dwelling Unit Permits 332 300 151 131 135 132 135 121 125 128 127 122 104 56 60 62 38 20 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 * Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Annual Change in Kane County New Dwelling Unit Permits 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% -100% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 *January-October 2011. Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Kane County New Nonresidential Building Permit Valuation $27.0 Millions of $ $13.9 $5.1 $4.8 $4.1 $1.8 $3.2 $2.8 $2.6 $1.8 $1.9 $1.4 $0.8 $1.4 $1.7 $1.1 $1.3 $0.4 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Kane County 2011 Permit Values by Building Type Single-family Homes $9,823 Duplexes and Twin Homes $624 Manufactured / Mobile Homes $62 Residential Garages/Carports $405 Industrial/Warehouse/Manufacturing Bldgs $145 (Numbers in 000s) Public Utility Bldgs. (private) $20 Retail, Mercantile, Restaurant $40 Agricultural Bldg. & Sheds $247 Other Nonresidential Bldgs $1,408 Structures other than Bldgs $509 Public Buildings & Projects $442 Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs $1,171 Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs $4,932 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Beaver County Dwelling Unit Permits 74 67 68 65 59 58 54 41 40 38 36 32 27 25 22 19 18 10 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 * Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Annual Change in Beaver County New Dwelling Unit Permits 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 *January-October 2011. Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Beaver County New Nonresidential Building Permit Valuation $27,656.5 Thousands of $ $15,910.8 $14,034.9 $10,547.5 $8,375.1 $7,913.3 $4,960.3 $3,645.8 $3,198.9 $3,029.3 $3,430.5 $3,488.5 $3,061.0 $3,157.1 $2,046.1 $1,805.1 $1,286.0 $769.9 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Beaver County 2011 Permit Values by Building Type Single-family Homes $1,906 Residential Garages/Carports $314 Retail, Mercantile, Restaurant $23 Agricultural Bldg & Sheds $32 (Numbers in 000s) Other Nonresidential Bldgs $506 Structures other than Bldgs $17 Public Buildings & Projects $9,656 Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs $288 Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs. $16 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Garfield County Dwelling Unit Permits 139 89 86 76 69 68 58 61 59 53 55 55 54 50 49 33 32 22 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 * Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Annual Change in Garfield County New Dwelling Unit Permits 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 *January-October 2011. Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Garfield County New Nonresidential Building Permit Valuation $14,731.0 Thousands of $ $9,554.9 $7,797.5 $6,025.0 $4,291.0 $4,160.8 $2,631.6 $3,130.0 $2,703.3 $2,543.9 $2,196.0 $2,325.7 $1,557.9 $1,689.6 $1,903.8 $1,902.2 $1,805.1 $541.8 $574.0 1991 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Garfield County 2011 Permit Values by Building Type Single-family Homes $2,991 Cabins $809 Manufactured / Mobile Homes $310 Residential Garages/Carports $541 Office, Bank, Professional Bldgs $4,870 Other Nonresidential Bldgs $79 Structures other than Bldgs $63 Public Buildings & Projects $472 Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs $846 (Numbers in 000s) Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs $299 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
The American Community Survey and You. . .
The American Community Survey provides vast variety of demographic/economic information is available on the local level. It replaces the long-form from the Census. Funding for this vital program is in jeopardy.
2006-2010 Age Distribution 6% Kane County Under 5 years 10% 7% 5% Utah 5 to 9 years 9% 7% United States 10 to 14 years 7% 7% 8% 15 to 19 years 6% 7% 8% 20 to 24 years 6% 9% 7% 25 to 34 years 9% 16% 13% 35 to 44 years 10% 12% 14% 45 to 54 years 11% 15% 15% 55 to 59 years 5% 11% 6% 60 to 64 years 4% 7% 5% 65 to 74 years 5% 11% 7% 75 to 84 years 3% 6% 4% 85 years and over 1% 1%2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey.
2006-2010 Educational Attainment Kane County 89.5% 90.6% 85.0% Utah United States 29.4% 27.9% 23.7% Percent high school graduate or higher Percent bachelor's degree or higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey.
Local Employment Dynamics • Geographic Flexibility • Worker Profile – Age – Education – Gender – Race/Ethnicity – Wages – Industry • Worker Flows • Mapping
Workers Working in LaVerkin Age Age 55 or Age 29 or older younger 21% 23% Earnings per Month More than $3,333 27% $1,250 Age 30 to or less 54 27% 56% $1,251 to $3,333 46%
data prove economy improving; should continue.
Lecia Parks (435) 688-3115 Langston lecialangston@utah.gov jobs.utah.gov Click on “Labor Market Information” economyutah.blogspot.com

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The Economy: How Are We Really Doing?

  • 1.
    The Economy— How are We REALLY doing?
  • 2.
    The Economy THE FABLEOF THE BLIND MEN AND THE ELEPHANT
  • 3.
    Economic analysis basedon monthly changes in data is misleading. It’s Flying! It’s hit a wall! It’s going It’s to crash! in recovery! It’s in a recession! It’s stagnating!
  • 4.
  • 5.
    GDP Growing ata moderate rate
  • 6.
    United States Real Gross Domestic Product 13,500 13,400 Billions of Chained Dollars 13,300 13,200 13,100 13,000 12,900 12,800 12,700 12,600
  • 7.
    Quarterly Change inU.S. Real Gross Domestic Product 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% Average Quarterly Change for the last 30 years—0.7 percent) -2.0% -2.5% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
    United States Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Jobs 140,000 138,000 Thousands of Jobs 136,000 134,000 132,000 130,000 128,000
  • 11.
    United States Year-Over Change in NonFarm 2% Jobs 0% -2% -4% -6% Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 12.
    U.S. Job Growthin Review 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs U.S. Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs 30-year average is 1.2 percent. -4.3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S.Department of Statistics. Utah Bureau of Labor Workforce Services.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
    United States Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 16.
    The Number ofDiscouraged U.S. Workers has declined along with the Unemployment Rate 120% 12% Year-to-Year Change in Discouraged Workers 100% Year-to-Year Change in Discouraged Workers Unemployment Rate 10% Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate 80% 60% 8% 40% 6% 20% 0% 4% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -20% 2% -40% -60% 0% Source. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
    United States Four-WeekMoving Average of Seasonally Adjusted Initial Claims 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1/6/2007 1/6/2008 1/6/2009 1/6/2010 1/6/2011 1/6/2012 Source: U.S. Department of Labor
  • 20.
  • 21.
    Sales have grownconsistently
  • 22.
    United States Real Retail and Food Service Sales 185,000 180,000 175,000 170,000 $ Millions 165,000 160,000 155,000 150,000 145,000 140,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • 23.
    United States Light Truck and Car Sales 25 20 15 Millions 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
    United States Industrial Production Index 105 100 95 90 85 80 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  • 27.
    United States New Factory Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 $ Millions 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
    United States 2,500 Housing Starts 2,000 1,500 Thousands 1,000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
  • 31.
  • 32.
    In the Interestof Full Disclosure Recently, the economic “spin” is more positive.
  • 33.
    CRITICAL CRITICAL MASS MASS CRITICAL CRITICAL MASS MASS CRITICAL CRITICAL MASS MASS
  • 34.
  • 35.
    U.S. Year-Over Changein Nonfarm Jobs 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 36.
    U.S. Year-Over Changein Nonfarm Jobs 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 37.
    U.S. Year-Over Changein Nonfarm Jobs 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 38.
    My Not-So-Secret Formula •Year-Over Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs. – “Year-over” change between one month and the same month the previous year. (March 2010 employment compared to March 2009 employment). – Employment data is current and some of the best data around. – It’s easy. – Available for small areas. – Not what the Bureau of Labor publishes in their press release—not seasonally adjusted.
  • 39.
    Most Importantly. .. • It works! • Nationally, when year- over growth rates trend down and eventually result in job loss, there has always a recession as defined by NBER.
  • 40.
  • 41.
    Year-Over Change inNonfarm 14% Jobs Washington County United States Utah 10% 6% 2% -2% -6% -10% Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 42.
    Washington County Year-OverJob Change December 2011 (preliminary) Mining 29 Construction 97 Manufacturing 261 Wholesale Trade 140 Retail Trade 212 Transportation 230 Utilities 8 Information 7 Financial Activities 32 Up 1,770 jobs total Prof/Business Svcs 12 Education/Health/Social Svcs 73 Leisure/Hospitality 386 Other Services 111 Government 173 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 43.
    Percent Change inNonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011 Total 3% 4% Mining 11% 24% Construction 1% 3% Manufacturing 3% 12% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 3% 5% Information 2% 1% Financial Activities 2% 2% Utah Prof/Business Svcs 5% 0% Washington Ed/Health/Social Svcs 3% 1% Leisure/Hospitality 3% 6% Other Services 2% 6% Government 2% 2% Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
  • 44.
    Washington County NewHires 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 New Hires 4,000 4-Qtr Moving Average 2,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics.
  • 45.
    Washington County Industry Employment Distribution Construction Mining 7% <1% Manufacturing 5% Government Other Services 16% 3% Leisure/ Trade/ Hospitality Transportation Services /Utilities 14% 24% Education/ Health/ Social Services Information Professional/ 17% Business Financial 2% Services Activities Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. 8% 4%
  • 46.
    Year-Over Change inNonfarm Jobs 6% Iron U.S. Utah 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 47.
    Iron County Year-OverJob Change December 2011 (preliminary) Mining 8 Construction -130 Manufacturing 30 Wholesale Trade 71 Retail Trade -21 Transportation 10 Utilities 5 Information -18 Financial Activities 1 Up 128 jobs total Prof/Business Svcs -116 Education/Health/Social Svcs -6 Leisure/Hospitality 193 Other Services 16 Government 85 Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services.
  • 48.
    Percent Change inNonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011 Total 3% 1% Mining 11% 9% Construction-20% 1% Manufacturing 3% 30% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 3% 2% Information 2% -14% Financial Activities 2% 0% Prof/Business Svcs 5% -10% Utah Ed/Health/Social Svcs 3% 0% 3% Iron Leisure/Hospitality 10% Other Services 2% 5% Government 2% 2% Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
  • 49.
    Iron County NewHires 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 New Hires 1,500 1,000 4-Qtr Moving Average 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Utah Department of Workforce Services.
  • 50.
    Iron County IndustryEmployment Distribution Government Mining Other Services 29% 1% 2% Construction 5% Leisure/ Hospitality Services Manufacturing 12% 9% Education/Health Trade/Transporta /Social Services tion/Utilities 11% 18% Professional/ Business Services Information 7% Financial 1% Activities Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. 5%
  • 51.
    Year-Over Change inNonfarm 14% Jobs United States Utah Kane County 10% 6% 2% -2% -6% -10% Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 52.
    Kane County Year-OverJob Change December 2011 (preliminary) Mining 0 Up 40 jobs total Construction -23 Manufacturing 0 Wholesale Trade -1 Retail Trade -39 Transportation 5 Utilities 0 Information 2 Financial Activities 10 Prof/Business Svcs 9 Education/Health/Social Svcs 27 Leisure/Hospitality 49 Other Services -8 Government 6 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 53.
    Percent Change inNonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011 Total 3% 2% Mining 11% 0% Construction -23% 1% 3% Utah Kane Manufacturing 0% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 3% -8% Information 2% 13% Financial Activities 2% 10% Prof/Business Svcs 5% 17% Ed/Health/Social Svcs 3% 34% Leisure/Hospitality 3% 8% Other Services 2% -2% Government 2% 1% Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
  • 54.
    Kane County 2011Industry Employment Distribution Mining Manufacturing Trade/ Construction NA 3% Transportation/ 3% Utilities 14% Information Government NA 25% Financial Activities 4% Professional/ Business Services 2% Other Services 15% Leisure/ Hospitality Education/Health/ Services Social Services 30% 4% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
  • 55.
    Kane County NewHires 1,200 New Hires 4-Qtr Moving Average 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics.
  • 56.
    Year-Over Change inNonfarm Jobs 12% 10% Beaver U.S. Utah 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -16% Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 57.
    Year-Over Change inNonfarm Jobs 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Beaver Total -10% -12% Beaver Without -14% Construction -16% Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 58.
    Beaver County Year-OverJob Change December 2011 (preliminary) Mining 27 Construction -67 Manufacturing 6 Wholesale Trade -2 Retail Trade 13 Transportation 7 Down 46 jobs total Utilities -2 Information -1 Financial Activities -3 Prof/Business Svcs -1 Education/Health/Social Svcs 1 Leisure/Hospitality -4 Other Services 2 Government -22 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 59.
    Percent Change inNonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011 Total 3% 0% Mining 11% 129% Construction 1% -46% Manufacturing 3% 9% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 3% 16% Information 2% -50% Financial Activities 2% -6% Prof/Business Svcs 5% -7% Utah Beaver Ed/Health/Social Svcs 3% 2% Leisure/Hospitality 3% -1% Other Services 2% 6% Government 2% -3% Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
  • 60.
    Beaver 2011 IndustrialEmployment Distribution Covered Agriculture Government 19% Mining 28% 1% Construction 6% Manufacturing Other Services 3% 1% Leisure and Trade/Transportati Hospitality on/Utilities 15% 22% Educational, Healt h and Social Services Information 2% <1% Professional and Financial Activities Business Services 2% 1% Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
  • 61.
    Beaver County NewHires 600 500 400 300 200 100 New Hires 4-Qtr Moving Average 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics.
  • 62.
    Year-Over Change inNonfarm Jobs 20% 16% Garfield U.S. Utah 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% -16% Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 63.
    Garfield County Year-OverJob Change December 2011 (preliminary) Mining 0 Construction -60 Manufacturing 7 Wholesale Trade -3 Retail Trade 27 Transportation Down 183 jobs total 0 Utilities 0 Information -19 Financial Activities -6 Prof/Business Svcs -1 Education/Health/Social Svcs -46 Leisure/Hospitality -81 Other Services 3 Government -4 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 64.
    Percent Change inNonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011 Total 2.8% -9.4% Mining 11.3% 0.0% Construction 0.5% -57.7% Manufacturing 3.2% 20.6% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 2.8% 11.7% Information 1.8% -17.0% Financial Activities 1.8% -18.8% Prof/Business Svcs 5.4% -4.8% Ed/Health/Social Svcs 3.3% -17.5% Leisure/Hospitality 2.8% Utah -14.6% Other Services 2.0% Garfield 25.0% Government 1.5% -0.7% Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
  • 65.
    Garfield County IndustryEmployment Distribution Construction Trade/ 3% Transportation/ Manufacturing Mining Utilities 1% NA 11% Information NA Financial Activities 1% Professional/ Government Business Services 28% 1% Education/Health/ Social Services 23% Other Services 1% Leisure/Hospitality Services 42% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
  • 66.
    Garfield County NewHires 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 New Hires 100 4-Qtr Moving Average 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics.
  • 67.
    Seasonally Adjusted UnemploymentRates 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% Utah U.S. 6% Kane 5% Washington Iron 4% Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 68.
    Seasonally Adjusted UnemploymentRates 13% 12% Utah U.S. Beaver Garfield 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • 69.
    Washington County Changein Gross Taxable Sales 21% 13% 10% 7% 7% 3% 4% 4% 3% 0% 0% -4% -3%-3%-1% -2% -6% -7% -11% -13% -11% -14% -17% -19% 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
  • 70.
    Iron County Changein Gross Taxable Sales 20%20% 13% 10% 9% 4% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% -2% -4% -4%-4% -6% -6% -8% -10% -15% -16% -17% 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
  • 71.
    Kane County Changein Gross Taxable Sales 35% 27% 25% 21% 16% 15% 16% 14% 12% 10%10% 9% 5% 7% 1% 0% -1% -6% -4% -4% -11% -18% -21% -29% 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
  • 72.
    Beaver County Changein Gross Taxable Sales 72% 58% 42% 28% 19% 17% 19% 20% 17% 16% 16%14% 11% 11% 5% 6% -2% -8% -6% -6% -4% -17% -30% -37% 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
  • 73.
    Garfield County Changein Gross Taxable Sales 31% 15% 13% 15%14% 12% 11% 9% 9% 7% 4% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% 1% -3% -4% -8% -8% -10% -16% 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
  • 74.
    Year-over Change inMSA Area Housing Price Index (HPI) 50% St. George 40% Salt Lake 30% Las Vegas 20% Percent Change 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.
  • 75.
    St. George MSAHousing Price Index 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx. Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.
  • 76.
    Housing Affordability Continuesto Improve 90 Housing Opportunity Index—% of homes which are 80 affordable to families with the median income. 70 60 U.S. Washington County 50 40 30 20 10 0 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr Qtr 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: National Association of Homebuilders; Wells Fargo Bank.
  • 77.
    “Serious” Foreclosure RatesJune 2011 Salt Lake City MSA 4.4% 3.6% 8.0% Provo-Orem MSA 3.8% 3.1% 6.9% Ogden-Clearfield MSA 3.7% 3.0% 6.7% Foreclosure Rate Logan MSA 2.1%1.7% 3.8% 90+ Days Deliquency Rate St. George MSA 4.8% 3.8% 8.6% Las Vegas/Henderson MSA 12.0% 8.2% 20.2% Source:: Analysis of LPS applied Analytics data by Local Initiative Support Corporation.
  • 78.
    June 2010-June 2011Percentage Point Change in “Serious” Foreclosure Rates Salt Lake City MSA -0.4 Provo-Orem MSA -1.3 Ogden-Clearfield MSA -0.4 Logan MSA -0.5 St. George MSA -3.0 Las Vegas/Henderson MSA -4.1 Source:: Analysis of LPS applied Analytics data by Local Initiative Support Corporation.
  • 79.
    Washington County DwellingUnit Permits 3,7943,860 2009—lowest number since 1989. . . 2,697 2,678 2,256 2,114 2,019 1,995 1,929 1,888 1,687 1,740 1,514 1,519 1,266 1,267 980 870 846 682 605 91 92 19 3 94 95 96 97 19 8 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 20 7 20 8 09 10 11 9 9 0 0 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 * Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
  • 80.
    Annual Change inWashington County New Dwelling Unit Permits 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 *January-October 2011. Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
  • 81.
    2011 Washington CountyNew Dwelling Units by Community Enterprise 2 Hurricane 109 Ivins 73 LaVerkin 5 Leeds 1 Santa Clara 22 Springdale 0 St. George 364 Virgin 0 Washington City 251 Other 19 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 82.
    2011 Washington CountyChange in Permitted New Dwelling Units by Community Enterprise -2 Hurricane 37 Ivins 24 LaVerkin -2 Leeds 0 Santa Clara -8 Springdale -5 St. George 97 Virgin 0 Washington City -158 Other -8 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 83.
    Washington County DwellingUnit Permits 5,000 Home Permits 4,000 Homes Sold Difference 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 * Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research; Utah Association of Realtors.
  • 84.
    Washington County New Nonresidential Building Permit Valuation $176.9 Millions of $ $143.4 $118.2 $119.2 $109.6 $107.5 $84.8 $75.2 $69.4 $68.9 $51.7 $46.8 $44.3 $43.6 $37.4 $39.6 $35.7 $32.0 $30.7 $16.1 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 85.
    Washington County 2011 Permit Values by Building Type Single-family Homes $141,744 Condominiums $10,662 Manufactured / Mobile Homes $441 Residential Garages/Carports $1,683 Amusement & Recreation Bldgs $1,342 Churches & other Religious Bldgs $2,534 Industrial/Warehouse/Manufacturing Bldgs $2,255 Service Station/Repair Garages $850 Hospital & Institutional Bldgs $8,883 Office, Bank, Professional Bldgs $3,191 Public Utility Bldgs. (private) $316 School & Educational Bldgs. (private) $26,058 Retail, Mercantile, Restaurant $8,544 Agricultural Bldg. & Sheds $283 Other Nonresidential Bldgs $3,840 Structures other than Bldgs $8,849 Public Buildings & Projects $724 Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs $5,701 (Numbers in 000s) Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs $16,815 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 86.
    Iron County DwellingUnit Permits 941 864 773 656 591 557 474 417 432 309 307 315 276 197 140 119 63 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 87.
    Annual Change inIron County New Dwelling Unit Permits 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 *January-October 2011. Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
  • 88.
    2011 Iron NewDwelling Units by Community Cedar City 34 Enoch 3 Paragonah 0 Parowan 1 Other 25 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 89.
    2011 Iron CountyChange in Permitted New Dwelling Units by Community Cedar City -12 Enoch -28 Paragonah 0 Parowan -1 Other -15 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 90.
    Iron County NewNonresidential Building Permit Valuation $32.9 $33.1 Millions of $ $28.5 $27.3 $25.3 $24.0 $23.3 $19.8 $20.0 $17.4 $16.8 $13.3 $14.5 $13.2 $5.0 $4.4 $3.2 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 91.
    Iron County 2011 Permit Values by Building Type Single-family Homes $9,823 Duplexes and Twin Homes $624 Manufactured / Mobile Homes $62 Residential Garages/Carports $405 Industrial/Warehouse/Manufacturing Bldgs $145 Public Utility Bldgs. (private) $20 Retail, Mercantile, Restaurant $40 Agricultural Bldg. & Sheds $247 (Numbers in 000s) Other Nonresidential Bldgs $1,408 Structures other than Bldgs $509 Public Buildings & Projects $442 Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs $1,171 Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs $4,932 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 92.
    Kane County DwellingUnit Permits 332 300 151 131 135 132 135 121 125 128 127 122 104 56 60 62 38 20 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 * Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
  • 93.
    Annual Change inKane County New Dwelling Unit Permits 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% -100% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 *January-October 2011. Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
  • 94.
    Kane County NewNonresidential Building Permit Valuation $27.0 Millions of $ $13.9 $5.1 $4.8 $4.1 $1.8 $3.2 $2.8 $2.6 $1.8 $1.9 $1.4 $0.8 $1.4 $1.7 $1.1 $1.3 $0.4 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 95.
    Kane County 2011 Permit Values by Building Type Single-family Homes $9,823 Duplexes and Twin Homes $624 Manufactured / Mobile Homes $62 Residential Garages/Carports $405 Industrial/Warehouse/Manufacturing Bldgs $145 (Numbers in 000s) Public Utility Bldgs. (private) $20 Retail, Mercantile, Restaurant $40 Agricultural Bldg. & Sheds $247 Other Nonresidential Bldgs $1,408 Structures other than Bldgs $509 Public Buildings & Projects $442 Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs $1,171 Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs $4,932 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 96.
    Beaver County DwellingUnit Permits 74 67 68 65 59 58 54 41 40 38 36 32 27 25 22 19 18 10 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 * Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
  • 97.
    Annual Change inBeaver County New Dwelling Unit Permits 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 *January-October 2011. Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
  • 98.
    Beaver County NewNonresidential Building Permit Valuation $27,656.5 Thousands of $ $15,910.8 $14,034.9 $10,547.5 $8,375.1 $7,913.3 $4,960.3 $3,645.8 $3,198.9 $3,029.3 $3,430.5 $3,488.5 $3,061.0 $3,157.1 $2,046.1 $1,805.1 $1,286.0 $769.9 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 99.
    Beaver County 2011 Permit Values by Building Type Single-family Homes $1,906 Residential Garages/Carports $314 Retail, Mercantile, Restaurant $23 Agricultural Bldg & Sheds $32 (Numbers in 000s) Other Nonresidential Bldgs $506 Structures other than Bldgs $17 Public Buildings & Projects $9,656 Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs $288 Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs. $16 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 100.
    Garfield County DwellingUnit Permits 139 89 86 76 69 68 58 61 59 53 55 55 54 50 49 33 32 22 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 * Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
  • 101.
    Annual Change inGarfield County New Dwelling Unit Permits 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 *January-October 2011. Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
  • 102.
    Garfield County NewNonresidential Building Permit Valuation $14,731.0 Thousands of $ $9,554.9 $7,797.5 $6,025.0 $4,291.0 $4,160.8 $2,631.6 $3,130.0 $2,703.3 $2,543.9 $2,196.0 $2,325.7 $1,557.9 $1,689.6 $1,903.8 $1,902.2 $1,805.1 $541.8 $574.0 1991 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 103.
    Garfield County 2011 Permit Values by Building Type Single-family Homes $2,991 Cabins $809 Manufactured / Mobile Homes $310 Residential Garages/Carports $541 Office, Bank, Professional Bldgs $4,870 Other Nonresidential Bldgs $79 Structures other than Bldgs $63 Public Buildings & Projects $472 Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs $846 (Numbers in 000s) Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs $299 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
  • 104.
    The American CommunitySurvey and You. . .
  • 105.
    The American CommunitySurvey provides vast variety of demographic/economic information is available on the local level. It replaces the long-form from the Census. Funding for this vital program is in jeopardy.
  • 106.
    2006-2010 Age Distribution 6% Kane County Under 5 years 10% 7% 5% Utah 5 to 9 years 9% 7% United States 10 to 14 years 7% 7% 8% 15 to 19 years 6% 7% 8% 20 to 24 years 6% 9% 7% 25 to 34 years 9% 16% 13% 35 to 44 years 10% 12% 14% 45 to 54 years 11% 15% 15% 55 to 59 years 5% 11% 6% 60 to 64 years 4% 7% 5% 65 to 74 years 5% 11% 7% 75 to 84 years 3% 6% 4% 85 years and over 1% 1%2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey.
  • 107.
    2006-2010 Educational Attainment Kane County 89.5% 90.6% 85.0% Utah United States 29.4% 27.9% 23.7% Percent high school graduate or higher Percent bachelor's degree or higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey.
  • 108.
    Local Employment Dynamics • Geographic Flexibility • Worker Profile – Age – Education – Gender – Race/Ethnicity – Wages – Industry • Worker Flows • Mapping
  • 109.
    Workers Working inLaVerkin Age Age 55 or Age 29 or older younger 21% 23% Earnings per Month More than $3,333 27% $1,250 Age 30 to or less 54 27% 56% $1,251 to $3,333 46%
  • 112.
    data prove economy improving; should continue.
  • 113.
    Lecia Parks (435) 688-3115 Langston lecialangston@utah.gov jobs.utah.gov Click on “Labor Market Information” economyutah.blogspot.com

Editor's Notes

  • #2 This template can be used as a starter file for a photo album.
  • #41 This template can be used as a starter file for a photo album.