This document provides a summary from Alexi Schnell, a Water Resources Specialist, at the August 27, 2015 Water Planning Committee meeting. It discusses current drought conditions, including a 90% chance of El Niño continuing through the winter and into early spring according to NOAA. Charts show Lake Oroville and San Luis Reservoir storage levels well below average. It also outlines updated conservation standards for member agencies and water use reductions of 29% cumulatively in June-July 2015 compared to 2013.

1. Presentation by:
Alexi Schnell, Water Resources Specialist
Water Planning Committee
August 27, 2015 Meeting
Update on Supply Conditions and
Drought Response Activities
Lake Oroville

2. 2
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
El Niño Update
August 2015 – El Niño
Advisory
 Issued when El Niño conditions
are observed and expected to
continue
 +90% chance El Niño will
continue through winter
 85% chance it will last into
early spring
August 2014 – El Niño Watch
 Issued when conditions are favorable for development of El Niño
 Chance of El Niño had decreased to about 65% for fall and winter

3. 3
NOAA Multi-Variate El Niño Index
Source: Mike Dettinger, USGS/SIO

4. 4
National Weather Service Outlook
September – November 2015
Precipitation Outlook
A = Above Average B = Below Average EC = Equal Chances
Made February 19, 2015
Temperature Outlook
A = Above Average B = Below Average EC = Equal Chances
Made August 20, 2015

5. 5
LAKE
OROVILLE
SAN
LUIS
State Water Project
Lake Oroville Storage
Average (1922-1998) 2013-2014 2014-2015 (current)
Current Year
31% Capacity
Last Year
Record Low
(as of August 24, 2015)
1,082,055 AF

6. 6
LAKE
OROVILLE
SAN
LUIS
San Luis Reservoir Storage
Current Year
20% Capacity
Last Year
(as of August 24, 2015)
Average (1922-1998) 2013-2014 2014-2015 (current)
403,942 AF

7. 7
28%
20%
36%
20%
20%
20%
32%
20%
20%
32%
36%
28%
32%
16%
28%
36%
12%
24%
36%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
SWRCB Emergency Regulation
Updated Member Agency Conservation Standards*
*Based on R-GPCD data current as of 6/11/15

8. 8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% Conservation standard
Percent below conservation standard
Percent achieved above conservation standard
Conservation achieved toward designated standard
SWRCB Emergency Regulation
Member Agency Conservation – June 2015
*Based on R-GPCD data current as of 6/11/15
-3%
-5%
0%
-2%
-10%
+1%
+12%
+5%
+12%
+5%
0%
+6%
+8%
+4%
+8%
+1%-15%
+14%
+10%
+7%
8Source: SWRCB Conservation Reporting Data

9. 9
Total Potable M&I Water Use
State Emergency Regulation Reporting Months
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
PotableM&IUse(AF)
Months in 2013 2015 - 2016
-26% -32%
Cumulative June - July 2015 is 29% lower than 2013
Source: Member Agency monthly water use reporting to the Water Authority
Adjusted for growth and weather

10. 10
Average Daily Maximum Temperature at
Lindbergh Field – Departure from Normal (oF)
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Months in 2013 2015 - 2016
SWRCB Emergency Regulation Reporting Months
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Hotter
Cooler

11. 11