This document analyzes the potential effects of climate change on wine grape production in Washington state through 2100. It uses climate models to project changes in temperature and precipitation under two emissions scenarios and evaluates their impacts on grape yields. The analysis finds that yields are projected to substantially decrease under continued high emissions but show little difference under carbon pricing. It recommends local irrigation adaptations and national/global cooperation to mitigate climate change impacts on the wine industry.

1. December 31, 2015 1
Projection of Vitis vinifera
production and climate
change in the Columbia Basin
Valley in the 21st century
TIFFANY LIU
Climate Physics Educational Development
Richland, WA

2. This summer
Young Women in Science
Under Yun Qian and Hailong Wang in the
Climate Physics Educational Development
group
Climate change and its effects show
detrimental effects to wine grape
production, the economy, job stability,
and families
Washington state wine production has a
national $14.9 billion economic impact [1]
Accounts for nearly 30,000 full-time jobs
December 31, 2015 2
20% of all grapes
produced in 2013 were
Cabernet Sauvignon.
http://img1.sunset.timeinc.net/sites/default/f
iles/image/2007/09/sunplants-grapes-l.jpg
[1] Stonebridge Research Group,
2012, The Economic Impact of
Washington State Wine and
Grapes, Stonebridge Research
Group, St. Helena, California, 8 p.

3. An outline
2 major factors focused on for growing
Vitis vinifera (wine grapes)
Temperature and precipitation
Visual data showing the representative
concentration pathways
RCP 4.5 (Carbon Price) is the scenario in which
total radiative forcing is stabilized right after
2100 [2]
RCP 8.5 (Business as Usual) is when
greenhouse gas emissions steadily increases
without change [2]
Importance locally, nationally, and globally
Tri-Cities, United States, global economy
December 31, 2015 3
Washington produced
40,500 tons of
chardonnay grapes in
2013.
http://www.winelegacy.com/Images/
ItemDescription/20090422/forestvill
e-chardonnay.jpg
[2] Wayne, G. P., 2013, The
Beginner’s Guide to
Representative Concentration
Pathways, Skeptical Science, 14
p.

4. December 31, 2015 4
Radiative forcing [3]CO 2 concentration [2]
Additional factors in wine grape growth
[2]Wayne, G. P., 2013, The Beginner’s
Guide to Representative Concentration
Pathways, Skeptical Science, 14 p.
[3] Meinshausen, M. et al., The RCP
greenhouse gas concentrations and their
extensions from 1765 to 2300, 2010,
Climatic Change, 18 p.

5. Areas of focus
December 31, 2015 5
http://www.wawgg.org/files/documents/Washington_State_AVA_Map.pdf?
PHPSESSID=db232de3e63ef954a1f12b38875b407c

6. Methodology and data
Using the
Community Climate
System Model
(CCSM), we
obtained temp. and
precip. data from 9
grid cells
Through literature,
we found the total
volume of wine grape
production in WA in
2010 as a baseline
and then projected
data until 2100
December 31, 2015 6
1 2 3 4
5 6 7
8 9

7. Statistical yield model (Lobdell et al., 2006)
December 31, 2015 7
Y represents yield anomaly (ton acre-1). Subscript
numbers indicate month of climate variable, with negative
values denoting a month from the year prior to harvest. Tn,
minimum temperature (°C); P, precipitation (mm)
Average aggregated average data computed from 382
individual meteorological stations throughout the state of
California from 1980-2003 [4]

8. Precipitation projections
December 31, 2015 8
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Precipitation(mm)
Year
June Monthly-mean Daily Precipitation
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Precipitation(mm)
Year
Previous September Monthly-mean Daily Precipitation
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

9. RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios
December 31, 2015 9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Temperature(°C)
Year
April Mean Daily Minimum Temperature
RCP
4.5
RCP
8.5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Percentanomaly(%)
Year
Statistical Yield Anomaly
RCP
4.5
RCP
8.5

10. Carbon Price vs. Business as Usual
December 31, 2015 10
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Volume(tons)
Year
Total Washington Yield
RCP
4.5
RCP
8.5

11. Carbon Price vs. Business as Usual
December 31, 2015 11
Due to the colder and drier climate of Eastern Washington, the model
does not show that human activity will affect the yield of WA wine
grapes. RCP 4.5 and 8.5 show little difference. However, the statistical
yield model that was designed specifically for California does show the
conclusion that if human activity proceeds as usual, the production of
grape production will substantially decrease, compared to if we begin
implementing ways to decrease anthropogenic climate change.
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Percentanomaly(%)
Year
California Statistical Anomaly
RCP
4.5
RCP
8.5

12. Recommendations
December 31, 2015 12
Locally
Minimize uncertainties
Irrigation adaptations
Provide training and guidance to workers for
a more sustainable and green environment
Nationally
Implement specific adaptation regulations to
each region
Derive a more encompassing model with all
major factors in order to provide more
accurate projections for specific regions
Globally
Educate everyone about the state of our
earth and how we are responsible
Merlot is usually harvested late in
order to gain physiological ripeness
and fuller flavor.
http://www.frenchscout.com/grapes/merlot-on-
black.jpg

13. Acknowledgements
December 31, 2015 13
Special thanks to:
Young Women in Science Program
Ying Liu
Carolyn Cramer
Lavon Conlin
Emily Davis
Hailong WangYun Qian

14. References
1. Stonebridge Research Group, 2012, The Economic Impact of
Washington State Wine and Grapes, Stonebridge Research
Group, St. Helena, California, 8 p.
2. Wayne, G. P., 2013, The Beginner’s Guide to Representative
Concentration Pathways, Skeptical Science, 14 p, 16 p.
3. Meinshausen, M. et al., The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations
and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, 2010, Climatic Change,
18 p.
4. Lobdell, D. et al., 2006, Impacts of future climate change on
California perennial crop yields: Model projections with climate
and crop uncertainties, Science Direct, Stanford, California, 210
p.
December 31, 2015 14