business cycle

1. Business Cycle, GDP, Unemployment, and Inflation
. “Unemployed” “Inflation”
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2. The Business Cycle
U.S. has experienced a 3.0% average economic
growth over last 60 years!
But, the 3% average has many fluctuations due to
The Business Cycle:
 Selected Years (rounded to nearest whole %):
 1984: 7% Growth in Goods & Services
 1991: -1%
 1997: 4%
 2001: 0%
 2017: 2.3% 2

3. The 4 Phases Of The Business Cycle
4 Phases Of The Business Cycle
1. Peak
2. Recession
3. Trough
4. Recovery (also called expansion)
3

4. The Business Cycle (Blue Line is 3% Avg. Growth)
Economic
Growth
Time
Peak
Peak
Peak
Trough
Trough
9-4
4

5. 4 Phases of the Business Cycle
1. Peak
 Economy is doing at its best
 Full employment (4% or lower unemployment)
 Maximum output, Household Income is high
 Prices likely to rise (inflation)
 Demand tends to drive up prices since
production is at or near capacity (no more
resources to produce and meet the rising
demand…thus, producers raise prices)
5

6. 4 Phases of the Business Cycle
2. Recession
 Economy begin to recede or slump due to a decrease in
spending.
 Declines in
 Employment (i.e., more unemployment)
 Output or production falls, Incomes fall
 Prices often stable (slow to fall)
 U.S. averages 1 recession every 6 years
> Last recession was the Great Recession of 2007
6

7. U.S. Recessions since 1950
Period
Duration,
Months
Depth
(Decline in Real
Output)
1953-54 10 -2.6%
1957-58 8 -3.7
1960-61 10 -1.1
1969-70 11 -0.2
1973-75 16 -3.2
1980 6 -2.2
1981-82 16 -2.9
1990-91 8 -1.4
2001 8 -0.4
2007-09 18 -3.7
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, www.nber.org, and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank,
www.minneapolisfed.gov. Output data are in 2000 dollars
The Business Cycle
LO1 7

8. 4 Phases of the Business Cycle
3. Trough (the low point)
a. Employment, Output/production, and income are
all at their lowest point
b. “Bottoming out” of a recession
i. “V” shaped (quick bottom and then expand)
or “U”shaped (long bottom and then expand)
ii. 2001 recession was a “V” (short: 8 mos.)
iii. 2007 recession was a “U” (long: 18 mos.)
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9. 4 Phases of the Business Cycle
4. Recovery or Expansion Phase
a. Movement out of trough towards Peak phase
b. Employment, output/production, and income
all rise
c. Prices usually start to rise again as nation gets
closer to full employment as businesses raise
prices due to increasing demand
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10. Causes of the Business Cycle
Causes of The Business Cycle
1. Changes in total spending: Number 1 Reason
2. “Bubbles” & “Popped Bubbles”
1. Discuss stock market value rises and crashes
2. Discuss housing market value rises and crashes
3. Major inventions increase business activity
a. Railroad
b. Automobile
c. Computer
d. Internet
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11. Key Economic Goals
 Top 3 Economic Goals & Measurements
1. Economic growth (more goods & services, or
Gross Domestic Product (GDP))
2. Full employment (all available resources
employed, or low unemployment)
3. Price level stability (little or no price swings,
meaning little inflation (rising prices) and no
deflation (prices fall).
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12. Economics Quiz
1. What are considered the three major economic
goals?
2. Falling output and income would be a characteristic
of the ______ business cycle phase.
3. Prices usually ______ in the peak phase, ______ in
the recessionary phase, and _________ in the
expansionary phase.
4. What is the number 1 cause of a recession? What
would happen if stock prices decreased by 30%?
5. What industries are affected most and least by a
recession? Why? (This answer is not in notes) 12

13. Opening Comments- GDP
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is perhaps the most well-known
macroeconomic measurement!
 A measurement that tracks the market value of goods & services
produced (measures “economic growth”)
 GDP is reported quarterly by the government (Commerce Dept.)
U.S. GDP is approx. $20,000,000,000,000 per year
U.S. has the largest GDP (next 4: China, Japan, Germany, and UK)
U.S. GDP has averaged a 3.0% annual GDP growth rate since 1950
GDP per capita (per head) is a superior measurement of “standard of
living”. GDP per capita is $62K in U.S. versus only $10K per head in
China.
13

14. GDP Defined
GDP Defined:
“The total market value of all final
goods and services produced within a
country in one year”
GDP is a monetary measurement
A measurement expressed in money
Approx. $20 trillion per year in the U.S.
14

15. GDP: A Closer Look At The Definition
GDP is the total market value of all final goods
& services produced within a country in one
year
“Produced”…..not “Sold”
“Produced within a country” (whether U.S.
or foreign company as long as in-country!)
U.S. GDP includes Toyotas made in
Texas
U.S. GDP excludes Cadillacs made in
Canada 15

16. GDP: A Closer Look At The Definition
GDP is the total market value of all final goods &
services produced within a country in one year
 “Final”: purchased for final use by purchaser
 Goods that are not final are “intermediate goods”.
 Intermediate goods are purchased to be included in
another product or to be resold
 Tires for a new car, Computer chips for a PC
 All business to business transactions are
excluded since they are intermediate
transactions.
 Using only final goods avoids “double counting”
which would inflate GDP 16

17. GDP Includes Services As Well As Goods
Services is the primary component of GDP (80%)
 All final services:
 Haircuts, tax work, consulting, rent, telephone,
agent sales (stocks, housing), restaurant sales, etc
 Excludes “intermediate” services
 Advertising work done for company
 Maintenance work done for company
 Cleaning the toilets or dragging the infield at a
Nationals game
17

18. GDP: What Else Is Excluded From GDP Besides
Intermediate Goods: ALL Non-Production Transactions
 Excludes Financial Transactions (non-production)
a. Stock purchases
b. Homes that are resold (home is counted once
when originally built)
c. Govt. transfer payments such as social security,
unemployment pay, and welfare.
 Excludes “secondhand” sales or used items sold
i. Excluded to avoid double counting
ii. Resell a 1968 Ford Mustang (not in GDP)
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19. Economics Quiz
1. Honda produces automobiles in Ohio. Should
Honda’s annual production value be included in
GDP?
2. Businesses often use advertising agencies to
develop their promotions. How are advertising sales
reflected in GDP?
3. A car manufactured in 2011 was sold new to a
customer in 2012. In 2018, the customer sold the
car to a friend. What is the effect on 2011, 2012,
and 2018 GDP?
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20. Economics Quiz
4. As the stock market or home prices fall, how is this
accounted for in GDP? Why?
5. What is an “intermediate transaction”? Explain why
intermediate transactions are excluded from GDP.
6. If Smith purchases supplies for his family business,
what is the impact on GDP? What if he purchases
supplies for his Intro to Business & Marketing
class?
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21. Nominal Versus Real GDP
“Nominal” GDP
 GDP Unadjusted. Reported “as is” in current dollars.
“Real” GDP
 GDP Restated for inflation (or deflation)
Key Points:
1. Nominal GDPs can be misleading due to price level
changes
2. An increase in GDP could actually mean less output if
prices rising faster than output
3. Real GDP makes GDPs comparable between years
21

22. GDP and Economic Well-Being
GDP not intended to be a measure of society’s overall well-being
 Shortfalls:
1. Excludes certain non-market home transactions
a. Homemaker production (cleaning, carpentry,baby sitting)
b. Swap transactions (service for service swap)
2. Excludes underground economy (estimated 8% Of GDP)
3. Excludes value of increased “leisure time”
4. Excludes product quality improvements
5. Says nothing of the “right goods” or the equitable
distribution of those goods
6. Does not account for impact to the environment
7. Says nothing of GDP per capita (superior measurement)
22

23. Underground Economy
LO6
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24. Unemployment
Unemployment Rate Calculation
 Unemployed / Labor Force x 100
 Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed
Calculation of Unemployment Rate
 Reported by Bureau of Labor Statistics (Govt.)
 Calculated Monthly based on survey of 60,000
households each month (statistical sample)
 To be “unemployed” must be actively seeking work
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25. Unemployment Calculation: Approximate Figures
 325M Total U.S. Population
 (67)M Under 16 and Institutionalized
 (96)M Not in Labor Force (retirees/homemakers /students)
 162M Labor Force (employed + unemployed)
 156 M Employed (full time/part time)
 6 M Unemployed (looking)
 3.7%: Unemployment Rate (6 M /
162 M)
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26. Calculating Unemployment: An Example
Hypothetical Facts:
 1000 Population total
 400 Not in Labor Force (retirees, homemakers, students)
 100 Under 16 and in Institutions
 Unemployed 50
What is the unemployment rate?: ________%
What is the size of the Labor Force?: _________
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27. Unemployment
Criticisms of unemployment rate:
 “U.S. unemployment rate is understated”
1. Part-time workers are counted as employed
• They may really want full time jobs!
2. “Discouraged workers” are not counted as
unemployed
a. Discouraged worker: “one who wants a job
but has stopped looking”
b. Treated as “not in labor force” (treated like a
“stay-at-home parent”, even though they
want a job) 27

28. Unemployment
The Three Types of Unemployment
1. Frictional
2. Structural
3. Cyclical
28

29. 3 Types Of Unemployment
1. Frictional Unemployment
 “Temporary and Unavoidable Unemployment”
 New college grads looking for jobs
 Parents returning to the work force
 Quit job to look for a better one
 Relocating to a new area
 Fired from your job and looking for new one
 Considered a necessary unemployment and non issue
 Averages about 2% of the 4% Unemployment rate
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30. 3 Types Of Unemployment
2. Structural Unemployment
 Due to changes in the structure or composition of the
labor force (a fundamental change)
 Examples of Structural Unemployment:
 Technology (machines) displaces workers
 Industry Mergers & Acquisitions
 International Trade (workers lose jobs due to trade)
 Changing Demand (Tobacco, Coal Mining)
 Averages about 2% of the 4% Unemployment rate
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31. Unemployment
3. Cyclical Unemployment
 Occurs during recessionary phase
 Highest at the trough phase
 Not unique to a particular industry
 Of the 3 unemployment types, this is
“bad” unemployment and the
unemployment we are trying to avoid.
 Right now, this is 0% as our economy
is at full employment! 31

32. Full Employment or The Natural Rate of
Unemployment
The Full Employment Unemployment Rate or The
Natural Rate of Unemployment (NRU)
 Does not mean zero unemployment!
 Full employment = frictional + structural unemployment
 Full employment excludes all cyclical unemployment
 Economists estimate the NRU to be about 4%!
 If actual unemployment rate > natural rate, then there is
cyclical unemployment!
 Example: If actual unemployment rate is 5.5% and the
natural rate is 4%, then cyclical unemployment is 1.5%.
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33. Unemployment Rates by Country (October 2018)
U.S.: 3.7%
Euro Union: 6.8%
UK: 4.0%
Canada: 5.9%
Mexico: 3.5%
China: 3.8%
Russia: 4.6%
South Africa: 27.2%
Brazil: 12.1%
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34. LO3
LO2 34

35. Economics Quiz
1. How is unemployment calculated? In your own
words, describe what the “labor force” is.
2. Why do many say our unemployment rate is
understated?
3. How are part-time workers and discouraged
workers counted in the unemployment calculation?
4. What are the three types of unemployment?
Describe an example of each.
5. _________ unemployment occurs during the
_________ business cycle phase and is caused by a
deficiency of ____________. 35

36. Economics Quiz
5. When workers are replaced by machines,
_______ unemployment results.
6. What kind of unemployment is being created by
thousands of manufacturing workers losing their
jobs?
7. What is full employment and the natural rate of
unemployment?
8. If the USA’s natural rate of unemployment is
5.0%% and the actual rate rises to 9.0%, what
type of unemployment is the 4.5% difference ?
9. Can the NRU be less than the actual rate? How? 36

37. Inflation
LO2
LO3 37

38. Inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Inflation Defined: “A rising general level of prices”
Measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
 A “basket” of over 300 tracked goods & services
 The % change in the prices of the basket represent the
inflation rate.
 Weighted index based on consumer spending patterns
 Housing inflation has the highest weight since
Households spend the most on housing.
 Inflation has averaged 3% historically but only 2.2%
over the last 3 years! Low inflation is good! 38

39. Inflation: What Causes It?
Types of Inflation
1. Demand-Pull Inflation
a. Total spending in excess of production capacity
b. Often described: “too many dollars chasing too few
goods”
c. Demand curve shifting to the right
39

40. Inflation
Types of Inflation (continued)
2. Cost-Push Inflation (aka: Supply-Side Inflation)
 Cost-push Inflation summarized:
 Prices rise due to rising production costs (factors
of production) called “supply shocks” (oil,
wages, other materials)
 Supply curve “shifts to the left”
40

41. Inflation: Nominal vs. Real Income
Nominal vs. Real Income
 Nominal Income: actual US dollars received as
wages or salaries
 Real Income: measures the amount of goods
and services that nominal income can buy
Nominal vs. Real Income Principles
 If nominal income increases at a faster
percentage rate than inflation, real income rises
(increased “purchasing power”)
 If nominal income increases slower than
inflation, real income falls (decreased
“purchasing power”) 41

42. Inflation: Nominal vs. Real Income
Nominal vs. Real Income:
 Equation:
 % change in nominal income – % change in
inflation = % change in real income
An Example:
 If wages increase 4%, but
 Inflation increases 7%
 Real income has decreased 3%, or said another
way:
 Purchasing power has decreased 3% 42

43. Who Does Inflation Help and Hurt?
Inflation Hurts:
 Savers with low fixed interest rates
 Lenders (Creditors): they are paid back with dollars that buy less
 Fixed income receivers
 Those on pensions (fixed amount retirement pay)
 Note: social security indexed to inflation
 Landlords with long term lease contracts
Inflation Benefits:
 Borrowers (Debtors): pay back loans with less valuable dollars
43

44. Categories or Types of Inflation
 Creeping Inflation: < 10% per year
 Galloping Inflation: 10-100% per year
 Hyperinflation: > 100% per year
 Feeds on itself: people spend immediately but
producers want to sell tomorrow
 Causes economic breakdown: people give up
on money system and revert to barter
 Germany in the 1920s
 Hungary in 1946
 Zimbabwe in 2008 44

45. Economics Quiz
1. What is inflation and how is it measured?
2. What are the two main causes of inflation?
3. How do the two inflation types link to the supply and
demand curves?
4. What is the relationship between spending and
inflation?
5. Differentiate between nominal income and real income.
What happens to your real income if you get a 10%
raise and inflation is increasing by 13%? Are you
getting richer or poorer?
6. Who does inflation benefit? Who does it hurt?
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