This document provides an overview of various weather forecasting methods and tools used by meteorologists, including persistence forecasts, numerical weather prediction, METAR/TAF reports, area forecasts, and winds and temperatures aloft forecasts. It also describes the process of collecting weather observations, communicating data, processing forecasts using supercomputers, and disseminating forecasts to users. Key points covered include the types of forecasts available at different time scales, from nowcasts to forecasts out to 10 days, as well as how pilots can obtain weather briefings over the phone.

1. Understanding Written
Weather Reports

2. How many of you can
predict the future?

3. Forecasting Methods
• Persistence Method.
• Wake in the morning to sunshine
• Usually good for a couple of hours
• Trend Forecast
• Front moving toward the airport at 30 MPH
• You are 60 miles away from the front
• It will be here in 2 hours
• Good for a few hours
• Nowcasts

4. Forecasting Methods
• Climatological Forecast
• Average for region
• Examples?
• Analogue Forecasts
• Compares current weather charts with those from the past.
• Usually only good for temps

5. Forecasting Methods
• Meteorological Forecasts
• One of the more accurate
• Uses the forecasters scientific knowledge of atmospheric process
to generate a weather prediction.
• 6-12 hour forecasts
• Numerical Weather Prediction
• Uses powerful computers and complex software
• Represents the physical laws which govern the behavior of the
atmosphere.
• 5-10 minutes of forecasting constantly repeating itself

6. Compiling & Processing
• Observation
• Communication
• Processing
• Dissemination

7. Observation
At sea, on land, & in the sky

8. Weather Forecast Office (WFO)
2 a day, 11z and 23z
20 miles in altitude then
balloon will pop
Parachute down to ground
Instructions inside to return
There is minimal risk, but the
small components will
probably not hurt the aircraft.
10% come back to the office
Crucial to the full forecast ops
All over the world at the same
time

9. Communication
• Transmitted by telephone, computer, or satellite to a
communication substation for subsequent relay to one of 3
Meteorological Centers
• Washington, DC
• Moscow, Russia
• Melbourne, Australia

10. Processing
• From these centers, info is sent to National Centers for
Environmental Predictions (NCEP).
• Focus for US wx predictions
• Super computer does the forecasting
• 20,000 different types of text reports
• 6,000 different graphic reports

11. Dissemination
• Info produced by the NCEP is sent to NWS Facilities across the
country.
• Some NWS’s have Wx Forecast Offices (WFO’s)
• NEXRAD

12. A forecast is just that, an educated
guess.
Remember, the further ahead in time
the forecast is, the less accurate it
becomes.

13. Printed WX Reports
• METAR
• TAF
• Area Forecast
• Winds & Temp Aloft

14. METAR
• Aviation Routine Weather Report
• Once an hour
• If a significant change to one or more items in the METAR,
then the Non-Routine METAR (SPECI) is released.

15. METARKCSG131351Z00000KT9SM CLR
20/16RMKAO2 SLPNOT02000161$
• METAR – Type of report
• KCSG – Station Identifier
• 131351Z – Time of report
• 00000KT – Wind Information
• 9SM – Visibility
• CLR – Weather (Sky Condition)
• 20/16 – Temperature/Dew point
• RMK – Remarks
• AO2 – Precipitation Discriminator
• SLPNO – Sea level pressure not operational
• T02000161 – True Temp & Dew Point

16. METAR
• Visibility
• Prevailing is what a person will see
• RVR is a machine (transmissometer)
• If less than 6SM, it has to tell you why
• FG,BR,HZ,FU

17. METAR
• Sky conditions are reported in 1/8 coverage
• Reported as AGL
• CLR – Sky is Clear
• FEW – There are few clouds, Zero to 2/8
• SCT – Clouds are Scattered, 3/8 – 4/8
• BKN – Cloud Layer is Broken, 5/8 -7/8
• OVC – The Cloud Layer is Overcast, 8/8
• Can report Cloud type also.
• TCU
• CB

18. KORD 131451Z VRB03KT 8SM -RA FEW012 SCT046 OVC055 13/11
A3009 RMK AO2 TSE00RAE1354B10 SLP188 OCNL LTGICCG DSNT E-
SE CB DSNT E-SE P0006 60010 T01330106 51017

19. Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)
• Valid for 24 Hours
• Comes out every 6 hours (Four times a day)
• 0000Z, 0600Z, 1200Z, 1800Z
• Can be amended
• All cloud heights are AGL

20. TAF
KORD 131505Z 1315/1418 36008KT P6SM BKN050 BKN090
FM131700 35009G17KT P6SM SCT040 SCT100 BKN250
FM131900 34013G22KT P6SM FEW050 SCT250
FM140000 33008KT P6SM SCT250
FM141300 28008KT P6SM BKN250

21. TAF
• OVC010CB
• BECMG 0610
• TEMP0 1923
• -TSRA
• PROB30 0004

22. Aviation Area Forecast (FA)
• Covers a wide region
• Used when your destination does not have a TAF
• Good for enroute wx
• Good for 12 hours
• Comes out 3 times a day
• 0000Z, 0800Z, 1600Z
• May have a categorical outlook
• 6 Hours

23. FA
• 4 main parts
• Communication & Product Header
• Precautionary Statement
• 2 weather sections
• Synopsis
• VFR Clouds & Weather

24. FA

25. MIAC FA 131310
AMD SYNOPSIS AND VFR CLDS/WX
SYNOPSIS VALID UNTIL 140300
CLDS/WX VALID UNTIL 132100...OTLK VALID
132100-140300
NC SC GA FL AND CSTL WTRS E OF 85W
SEE AIRMET SIERRA FOR IFR CONDS AND MTN
OBSCN. TS IMPLY SEV OR GTR TURB SEV ICE
LLWS AND IFR CONDS. NON MSL HGTS
DENOTED BY AGL OR CIG.
SYNOPSIS...CDFNT XTRM SW OH SEWD ACRS
SRN WV-SWRN VA-NERN NC MOVG SWD. BY
18Z WRMFNT WRN OH-SWRN WV-SWRN VA-
WRN NC-SERN NC INTO CSTL WTRS. BY 03Z
LOW E CNTRL OH. CDFNT SWRN WV-SWRN VA-
NWRN NC- SERN NC INTO CSTL WTRS. CDFNT
MIDDLE TN-NWRN AL TO SERN LA. BY 15Z
CDFNT CNTRL GA-FL PNHDL INTO NERN GULF
MEX DSIPTG 18Z-21Z.

26. . NC ...UPDT CSTL PLAIN...SCT080 BKN150 TOP
FL250. 17Z BKN100. ISOL -SHRA/ -TSRA. CB
TOP FL380. OTLK...VFR. 00Z MVFR BR.
PIEDMONT...BKN100 LYRD FL250. ISOL -SHRA.
14Z BKN080. ISOL -SHRA. OTLK...VFR.
APLCNS...BKN120 LYRD FL250. IN VLYS VIS 3SM
BR. 13Z BKN070 LYRD FL200. SCT -SHRA.
OTLK...VFR. . SC CSTL PLAIN...SCT100 BKN CI.
13Z BKN100 LYRD FL200. ISOL -SHRA. 18Z
SCT100 BKN CI. OTLK...VFR.
PIEDMONT...SCT120 BKN CI. OCNL BKN120
LYRD FL200. ISOL -SHRA. BECMG 1518 SCT100
BKN CI. OTLK...VFR. APLCNS...SCT060 BKN100
TOP FL200. ISOL -SHRA. OTLK...VFR. . GA
APLCNS-N GA...BKN090 LYRD FL250. WDLY SCT
-SHRA. 13Z BKN100 TOP 150. OTLK...VFR.
CNTRL GA...SCT060 BKN090 LYRD FL220. OCNL
BKN060. VIS 5SM WDLY SCT -SHRA BR. BECMG
1517 SCT060 SCT100. OTLK...VFR

27. . SWRN GA...SCT020 BKN080 TOP 140. OCNL
BKN020. ISOL -SHRA. VIS OCNL 3SM BE. 13Z
SCT050 SCT100. 17Z ISOL -SHRA. OTLK...VFR.
SERN GA-CSTL PLAIN...SCT050 BKN090 TOP
120. OCNL VIS 3SM BR. ISOL -SHRA. 15Z
SCT050 SCT100. OTLK...VFR. . FL ...UPDT W
PNHDL...SCT025 BKN090 TOP 120. OCNL
BKN025 TOP 040. VIS 5SM BR. 13Z SCT040. 16Z
ISOL -SHRA. OTLK...VFR. E PNHDL...SCT100. VIS
5SM BR. 13Z SCT050. 16Z ISOL -SHRA.
OTLK...VFR. N FL...SCT070 SCT CI. VIS 3SM BR.
13Z SCT040. OTLK...VFR. CNTRL FL...SCT070
BKN CI. OTLK...VFR. S FL...BKN050 BKN120
LYRD FL250. OCNL BKN035. ISOL -SHRA. 20Z
SCT050 BKN100. OTLK...VFR. FL KEYS...SCT020
BKN090 LYRD FL250. OCNL BKN050. VIS 5SM
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. CB TOP FL450. OTLK...VFR. .
CSTL WTRS ...UPDT ATLC WTRS NC...SCT070
BKN100 LYRD FL250. ISOL -SHRA/-TSRA. CB
TOP FL400. BECMG 1821 BKN090. VIS 5SM SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA. CB TOP FL370. OTLK...MVFR
SHRA.

28. SC-GA - W HLF...SCT100 BKN CI. BECMG 1821
OCNL BKN100 TOP 140. WDLY SCT -SHRA.
OTLK...VFR. E HLF...SCT030 BKN080 TOP 150.
WDLY SCT -SHRA/ISOL -TSRA. CB TOP FL400.
OTLK...VFR. FL PBI NWD-E 80W SRN
THIRD...BKN070 TOP 120. WDLY SCT -SHRA.
15Z SCT -TSRA. CB TOP FL430. OTLK...VFR.
RMNDR...SCT090 BKN CI. 15Z OCNL BKN090
TOP 140. WDLY SCT -SHRA. OTLK...VFR. PBI
NWD-W 80W...SCT070 BKN CI. 18Z SCT040
SCT100 BKN CI. OTLK...VFR. S PBI THRU FL
STRAIT...BKN050 LYRD FL250. VIS 5SM SCT
TSRA. CB TOP FL450. OTLK...VFR. GULF WTRS E
OF 85W S RSW...BKN070 LYRD FL250. SCT -
TSRA. CB TOP FL450. BECMG 1821 SCT080 BKN
CI. ISOL -SHRA. OTLK...VFR. RMNDR S
HLF...SCT060 BKN CI. OTLK...VFR. N
HLF...SCT050. BECMG 1618 ISOL -SHRA.
OTLK...VFR. ....

29. FA
• Clouds Height is MSL unless otherwise noted

30. Winds & Temperatures Aloft
Forecasts (FD)
• True North
• Speed shown in Knots
• Temps in Celsius
• DOES NOT include levels within 1,500 feet of station elevation
• Temperatures not forecasted for the 3,000-foot level OR if
station elevation is within 2500
• All temps over FL240 are negative
• All wind velocities over 100 have special coding

31. FD
• VALID 131800Z FOR USE 1400-2100Z. TEMPS NEG ABV 24000
• FT 3000 6000 9000 12000 18000 24000 30000 34000 39000
• EYW 1907 2307+15 2305+11 2407+06 3011-06 2919-16 262131 243041 234153
• JAX 2707 2815+12 2619+06 2628+02 2851-06 2757-19 267732 269241 259652
• MIA 0408 1708+14 1912+10 2310+05 2727-06 2621-15 253131 243641 244953
• MLB 9900 2415+13 2621+10 2626+04 2732-06 2742-16 265631 255741 256553
• PFN 2707 2917+11 2721+06 2825+04 2732-06 2745-20 267134 258841 249352
• PIE 9900 2713+14 2619+09 2624+04 2825-05 2739-17 265931 256141 246452
• TLH 2707 2718+11 2724+05 2729+03 2840-06 2749-19 267533 269041 259552
• ATL 2405 2506+09 2707+03 2511-02 2937-10 2864-20 276237 267944 268952
• CSG 9900 2715+09 2809+04 2917+01 2944-08 2763-20 276436 269042 269352
• SAV 2408 2808+10 2619+05 2621-01 2852-08 2859-19 276934 269641 760551
• HAT 9900 2407+13 2611+04 2821-03 2725-15 2633-27 277637 279442 278751
• ILM 2513 2906+12 2610+04 2717-01 2719-15 2729-25 279134 279142 279851
• RDU 1009 2209+11 2706+04 2715-03 2608-15 2816-27 274940 278642 278451
• CAE 9900 9900+10 2811+04 2615-02 2716-14 2860-20 277735 268843 269852
• CHS 2209 2608+10 2720+05 2819-01 2733-13 2871-19 277135 269741 760352
• FLO 1805 9900+11 3013+04 2815-01 2814-14 2626-25 279034 278943 279751
• GSP 9900 9900+10 2608+03 2409-02 2512-13 2716-24 288335 277744 268951
• 2XG 2310 2313+12 2522+08 2734+02 2653-07 2661-18 268131 269041 269753

32. FD
• Winds over 100 knots
• 760551
• 76 05 51
• Wind direction, subtract 50
• Wind Velocity add 100
• Keep the temp as is
• So, Winds are 260 @ 105 knots w/ temp of -50C

33. Weather Briefing
• 1-800-WX-BRIEF or 1-800-992-7433
• Not your old wx briefing service
• Now run by Lockheed Martin
• They know who you are when you call them
• Quicker filing with the new services, because they have all of
your info on file

34. Weather Briefing
1. Adverse Conditions
2. VFR Flight not Recommended
3. Synopsis
4. Current Conditions
5. Enroute Forecast
6. Destination Forecast
7. Winds & Temps Aloft
8. Notices to Airmen
9. ATC Delays
10. Requests for Pireps
11. EFAS
12. Other Information

35. Wx Briefing
• Standard
• Abbreviated
• Outlook

36. Wx Briefing
• EFAS
• Flight Watch
• 122.0

37. Wx Briefing
• TWEB
• Transcribed Weather Broadcast
• Transmitted over select VOR’s & NDB’s

38. Wx Briefing
• HIWAS
• Hazardous In-flight Weather Advisory Service
• On selected VOR’s
• Center will advise if updated