The document provides an analysis of purchasing managers' index (PMI) survey data for various economies and sectors globally and regionally. Some key points from the PMI surveys discussed in the document include:
- Global and eurozone economic growth eased in April according to the PMI data, with all eurozone sectors still contracting.
- The UK and Republic of Ireland saw a pick-up in business activity in April, while Northern Ireland's rate of contraction remained unchanged.
- Northern Ireland's manufacturing sector was growing over the last three months according to the PMI data, while its services and construction sectors remained contracting.
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slide pack September 2013Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, September 2013, including comparisons between sectors and between NI, RoI, UK and global economics
Slide pack for the latest Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report, October 2013, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - November 2013Richard Ramsey
Slide pack re the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), November 2013. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
A slide pack re the June 2014 UIster Bank NI PMI, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slidepack. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector. May 2014 Survey Update
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, April 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for Ulster Bank NI PMI, April 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slides illustrating data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI for August 2013, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, March 2015Richard Ramsey
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI for March 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slide pack September 2013Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, September 2013, including comparisons between sectors and between NI, RoI, UK and global economics
Slide pack for the latest Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report, October 2013, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - November 2013Richard Ramsey
Slide pack re the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), November 2013. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
A slide pack re the June 2014 UIster Bank NI PMI, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slidepack. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector. May 2014 Survey Update
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, April 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for Ulster Bank NI PMI, April 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slides illustrating data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI for August 2013, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, March 2015Richard Ramsey
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI for March 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, January 2014Richard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slidepack, January 2014. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, December 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, December 2014, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack, Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, December 2013Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the December 2013 Ulster Bank NI PMI, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack Ulster Bank NI PMI February 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI February 2014, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack, Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, February 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, February 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI Slide Pack August 2016Richard Ramsey
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, August 2016 including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK regions and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, May 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, May 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, June 2016, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Steven Jagger kpmg report on jobs in MaySteven Jagger
Availability of permanent candidates falls at sharpest rate since November 1997. Key points from the May survey:
Permanent placements and temporary billings continue to rise strongly, despite sharply falling candidate availability
Further strong rise in permanent salaries, while temp pay growth accelerates
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, October 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), October 2014 Survey (Update Issued 10th November 2014)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, May 2016, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report, April 2017, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slidepack, March 2017, including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Slide Pack - Jan...Richard Ramsey
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Growth of business activity remains solid, but inflationary pressures intensify.
The Northern Ireland private sector started 2017 on a positive note, with further increases in output, new orders and employment recorded in January. That said, rates of expansion eased from the end of last year. Meanwhile, price pressures continued to intensify, with rates of inflation for both input costs and output prices among the sharpest in the survey’s history.
Slide pack for the Bank NI PMI April 2016, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack Ulster Bank NI PMI January 2016Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the January Ulster Bank NI PMI, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) December 2016Richard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dslidepack. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack, Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, August 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, August, 2014. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, January 2014Richard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slidepack, January 2014. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, December 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, December 2014, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack, Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, December 2013Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the December 2013 Ulster Bank NI PMI, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack Ulster Bank NI PMI February 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI February 2014, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack, Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, February 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, February 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI Slide Pack August 2016Richard Ramsey
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, August 2016 including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK regions and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, May 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, May 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, June 2016, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Steven Jagger kpmg report on jobs in MaySteven Jagger
Availability of permanent candidates falls at sharpest rate since November 1997. Key points from the May survey:
Permanent placements and temporary billings continue to rise strongly, despite sharply falling candidate availability
Further strong rise in permanent salaries, while temp pay growth accelerates
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, October 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), October 2014 Survey (Update Issued 10th November 2014)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, May 2016, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report, April 2017, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slidepack, March 2017, including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Slide Pack - Jan...Richard Ramsey
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Growth of business activity remains solid, but inflationary pressures intensify.
The Northern Ireland private sector started 2017 on a positive note, with further increases in output, new orders and employment recorded in January. That said, rates of expansion eased from the end of last year. Meanwhile, price pressures continued to intensify, with rates of inflation for both input costs and output prices among the sharpest in the survey’s history.
Slide pack for the Bank NI PMI April 2016, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack Ulster Bank NI PMI January 2016Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the January Ulster Bank NI PMI, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) December 2016Richard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dslidepack. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack, Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, August 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, August, 2014. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack re Ulster Bank NI PMI September 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, September 2014, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, January 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, January 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI for August 2015, including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK regions, NI and Republic of Ireland performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, October 2015, including sectoral analysis and analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack, September 2015Richard Ramsey
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, September, 2015, including analysis of of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, October 2016, including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, November 2015, including sectoral analysis and analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI - April 2018 SlidepackRichard Ramsey
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector. April 2017 Survey Update. Richard RamseyChief Economist Northern Ireland. Issued 14th May 2018.
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different sectors.
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report, July 2017, including analysis of global, eurozone, UK, UK regions, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack Ulster Bank NI PMI February 2016Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, February 2016, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) November 2020. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2020 Slide PackRichard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) September 2020 - Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
September 2020 Survey Update
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Today sees the release of January data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – saw the Northern Ireland private sector move towards stabilisation amid a reduction in near-term uncertainty. Business activity fell at a softer pace thanks to broadly unchanged new order volumes. Meanwhile, firms raised their staffing levels for the second month running and business confidence was the highest since April 2018.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
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when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
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2. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3‐month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.
3. Global output growth eases in April…
Global Output - PMI
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13
Total Manufacturing Services
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction
4. … but all sectors within the Eurozone are still contracting
Eurozone PMIs: Output
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13
Composite (M&S) Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices
ExpansionContraction
5. Australia, Spain & France post the steepest falls in
manufacturing output. Denmark posts strongest gain
PMIs: Manufacturing Output April 2013
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Australia
Spain
France
Greece
Italy
Poland
EZ
Ireland
EU
Germany
Austria
NI
Netherlands
Canada
Singapore
India
Turkey
UK
Czech Republic
China
Global
Russia
Vietnam
Israel*
Indonesia
Brazil
Taiwan
Japan
S.Africa
Mexico
N.Zealand*
Switzerland
US
S.Korea
Denmark
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices,
*March
UK, NI & RoI
6. Services output expanding for BRICs, US, Japan, UK &
Ireland. Australia, France & Spain post the steepest declines
PMIs: Services Output April 2013
40 45 50 55 60
Australia
France
Spain
Italy
EZ
EU
Germany
NI
India
China
Brazil
Emerging Markets
Japan
Global
UK
Russia
US*
Ireland
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices, *
US Non-manufacturing which is wider than
services
€
7. The four largest economies within the eurozone are now
contracting
Composite PMIs
(Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
ContractionExpansion
8. The US & China signal a loss in momentum in April
Composite PMIs
(Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13
Eurozone US (ISM) China UK
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction
9. … but Japan’s PMI overtakes the US and China. A
depreciating yen is aiding Japanese manufacturing…
Manufacturing PMIs
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13
US (ISM) China Japan Eurozone
Source: Markit Economics
ContractionExpansion
10. … but strong Aussie $ and a slowdown in Asia is
pushing Australia ‘Down Under’
Australia - PMI
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Dec-07 Aug-08 Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13
Manufacturing Services No Change
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
ContractionExpansion
11. UK & the RoI post a pick-up in business activity in April
whilst the rate of contraction remains unchanged for NI
Private Sector Business Activity - PMIs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit & Ulster Bank NI PMI: 50 = threshold
between expansion / contraction
ExpansionContraction
**PMI Surveys Exclude Agriculture & Public Sector**
12. PMI is more negative than DFP’s new private sector composite index
suggests (combines DFP indices for construction, services, agriculture & industrial production)
NI Private Sector Output Index Versus NI PMI
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2002 Q4 2004 Q2 2005 Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q4 2010 Q2 2011 Q4 2013 Q2*
PSO Q/Q%
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
PMI
NI PSO Index Left Hand Scale UB PMI Right Hand Scale
Source: New DFP Northern Ireland Composite Economic
Index (NICEI) & Ulster Bank / Markit Economics NI PMI,
* refers to April 2013
50 mark is the threshold for expansion / contraction with PMI
Expansion
Contraction
13. NI output, new orders and employment all post
modest contractions over the last 3 months
NI Private Sector Activity
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13
Business Activity New Business Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionContraction
14. Pace of contraction in NI new orders continues. Rate
of growth eases in RoI & accelerates in the UK
Private Sector New Orders
Monthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-03 Apr-05 Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
OrdersincreasingOrdersContracting
15. NI’s levels of work outstanding sees its pace of decline
ease markedly over the last 3 months
Private Sector Backlogs
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Apr-03 Dec-04 Aug-06 Apr-08 Dec-09 Aug-11 Apr-13
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
IncreasingDecreasing
16. The pace of decline in export orders eases in April
NI New Export Business
Monthly
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-03 Apr-05 Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13
New Export Orders No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
GrowthAcceleratingContractionAccelerating
17. PMI underestimated job gains in Q2 & Q3 (relative to official jobs
survey) marginal job losses in Q4 2012. PMI signals a flat Q1 2013
NI Employment: PMI v QES*
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jun-03 Sep-04 Dec-05 Mar-07 Jun-08 Sep-09 Dec-10 Mar-12 Apr-13
PMI Index
-1.5%
-1.3%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.5%
-0.3%
0.0%
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%
1.0%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job
losses
Job
gains
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the
number of jobs in NI & includes the public sector
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI
Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion /
contraction,PMI 3mth averages except April-13
(monthly)
18. The UK & the RoI record further job gains in April.
Conversely, firms in NI report a fall in employment levels
Private Sector Employment Levels
Monthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
JobGainsJobLosses
19. Strong input cost inflation coupled with output price
deflation means the profitability squeeze continues
NI Private Sector Profit Squeeze
3 Month Moving Average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13
Output Prices Input Prices No Change
InflationDeflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Profits
squeeze
Price of goods &
services falling
21. 3 UK regions post a contraction in business activity
Output / Business Activity
April 2013
50 = No change
48.9
51.0
52.1
40
45
50
55
60
Wal Y&H EM Lon Scot UK SE East SW NW WM NE NI RoI
PMI index
ExpansionContraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
22. The North East posts the sharpest rate of decline over the
last 3 months followed by NI…
Output / Business Activity
3 months to April 2013
50 = No change
48.7
51.3
50.9
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
Wal Y&H Lon Scot EM SE East UK NW WM SW NI NE RoI
PMI Index
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionContraction
23. …but NI has posted the steepest decline over the
last 12 months
Output / Business Activity
12 months to April 2013
50 = No change
51.5
51
45
40
45
50
55
Lon Y&H Wal EM Scot SE WM UK East NW SW NE NI RoI
PMI index
ExpansionContraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
24. Four English regions & NI report falling employment
levels in March …
Employment Levels
April 2013
50 = No change
50.7
51.0
47.3
44
46
48
50
52
54
WM SE Wal EM Scot UK East SW Lon NE NW Y&H NI RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingDecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
25. …and 4 UK regions (incl. NI) post job losses over last 3
months…
Employment Levels
Last 3 months to April 2013
50 = No change
48.4
50.6
51.3
44
46
48
50
52
54
WM SE Wal East EM Scot Lon UK NE SW NW NI Y&H RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingDecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
26. NI posts the steepest decline in employment over the
last 12 months
Employment Levels
12 months to April 2013
50 = No change
50.1
51.2
47.7
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
EM WM SE Scot East UK Y&H Wal Lon SW NW NE NI RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingDecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
28. UK service sector growth accelerates in April with
manufacturing back above the 50 threshold
UK Business Activity / Output - PMIs
20
30
40
50
60
70
Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13
Services Manufacturing Construction
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction
29. ‘Triple-dip’ recession avoided. UK composite PMI for
April suggests further growth in Q2
UK GDP versus UK Composite PMI
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006
Q3
2007
Q2
2008
Q1
2008
Q4
2009
Q3
2010
Q2
2011
Q1
2011
Q4
2012
Q3
2013
Q2*
PMI Index
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
GDP Q/Q
GDP Q/Q PMI PMI No Change
Source: ONS & Markit Economics, * refers to Apr-13 only
30. RoI’s services sector sees a pick up in growth but the rate
of decline accelerates for construction & manufacturing
RoI Business Activity - PMIs
3 month moving average
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13
Manufacturing Services Construction No Change
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction
31. NI services & construction sectors contracting but
manufacturing is growing
NI Private Sector Output
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13
Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
PMI
ExpansionContraction
32. …with all three sectors reporting falling employment
levels
NI PMI - Employment Index
3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13
Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
JobGainsJobLosses
33. Manufacturing posts output & new orders growth over
the last three months with modest fall in employment
NI Manufacturing Activity
3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13
Business activity New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
GrowthacceleratingContractionaccelerating
34. NI outperforming the UK and the RoI in terms of
manufacturing output growth
Manufacturing Output
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ContractionExpansion
35. NI posts the strongest growth in new orders
Manufacturing New Orders
3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ContractionExpansion
36. N.Ireland is outperforming its European competitors,
aided by sterling’s ongoing weakness
Manufacturing Output - PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13
RoI Italy Spain Greece NI
Source: Markit Economics PMIs, NI is 3 month moving average
ContractionExpansion
37. Cost price inflation easing for local manufacturing firms
and output prices are rising (return of pricing power)
NI Manufacturing Input & Output Inflation
3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
InflationDeflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Profits
squeeze
38. PMI signals job gains in Q1 2013 followed by a fall in
employment levels in April
NI Manufacturing Employment: PMI v QES*
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jun-03 Sep-04 Dec-05 Mar-07 Jun-08 Sep-09 Dec-10 Mar-12 Apr-13
PMI Index
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in
QES Series
Job
losses
Job
gains
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment
Survey of the number of jobs in NI firms
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI
Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion /
contraction,PMI 3mth averages except April-13
(monthly)
39. RoI & UK growth continues while NI’s pace of decline
eases
Services Output (excluding Retail)
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ContractionExpansion
40. New orders growth slowing in the RoI & picking up in the
UK. Meanwhile NI is still contracting albeit at a weaker rate
Services New Orders (excluding Retail )
3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ContractionExpansion
41. NI’s services sector raised prices for its goods &
services in April for the first time since September 2008
NI Services Input & Output Inflation
3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
InflationDeflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Profits
squeeze
42. …with employment levels still falling in NI over the
last three months
Services Employment
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13
UK RoI NI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ContractionExpansion
43. The services PMI underestimated modest employment
gains in Q2-Q4 & signals modest decline in Q1 2013
NI Services Employment: PMI v QES*
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jun-03 Sep-04 Dec-05 Mar-07 Jun-08 Sep-09 Dec-10 Mar-12 Apr-13
PMI Index
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job
gains
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number
of jobs in NI and includes the public sector
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI
Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion /
contraction,PMI 3mth averages except April-13
(monthly)
44. Local retailers still reporting falling orders & activity
Northern Ireland Retail PMI
3 monthly average
25
35
45
55
65
75
Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13
Business Activity New Orders Backlogs No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionContraction
45. Profits squeeze on local retailers appears to be easing
NI Retail Input & Output Inflation
3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13
Input Costs Output Prices No Change
InflationDeflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Profits
squeeze
46. NI construction sector still in the midst of a severe downturn
NI Construction PMI
3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
Feb-09 Dec-09 Oct-10 Aug-11 Jun-12 Apr-13
Output New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics, Ulster Bank PMI
ExpansionContraction
50 = No change
47. …with profits squeeze continuing
NI Construction Sector Profits Squeeze
3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-09 Dec-09 Oct-10 Aug-11 Jun-12 Apr-13
PMI Index
Input Prices Output Prices No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank PMI
InflationDeflation
48. NI PMI has been a reasonably good predictor of actual
job losses in the official employment surveys (QES)
NI Construction Employment: PMI v QES
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jun-03 Sep-04 Dec-05 Mar-07 Jun-08 Sep-09 Dec-10 Mar-12 Apr-13
PMI Index
-10.0%
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job
gains
*QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI
Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion /
contraction,PMI 3mth averages except April-13
(monthly)
49. UK, RoI & NI all post contractions in construction output
Construction Sector Output - PMI
3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
Feb-09 Dec-09 Oct-10 Aug-11 Jun-12 Apr-13
PMI Index
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction
50. … and with new orders falling in NI, UK & RoI
Construction Sector New Orders - PMI
3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
Feb-09 Dec-09 Oct-10 Aug-11 Jun-12 Apr-13
PMI Index
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction
51. Growth opportunities for NI firms within GB will wane
as activity eases
UK Construction Activity - PMIs
3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Civil Engineering Activity
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction
52. Lack of opportunities in the RoI with all construction
sub-sectors declining in April
Republic of Ireland Construction Activity - PMI
3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Engineering Activity
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
ExpansionContraction
50 = No change
53. Slide 53
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