Slides illustrating data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI for August 2013, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slidepack. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector. May 2014 Survey Update
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
A slide pack re the June 2014 UIster Bank NI PMI, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the latest Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report, October 2013, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slide pack September 2013Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, September 2013, including comparisons between sectors and between NI, RoI, UK and global economics
Slide pack re Ulster Bank NI PMI September 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, September 2014, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - November 2013Richard Ramsey
Slide pack re the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), November 2013. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slidepack. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector. May 2014 Survey Update
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
A slide pack re the June 2014 UIster Bank NI PMI, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the latest Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report, October 2013, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slide pack September 2013Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, September 2013, including comparisons between sectors and between NI, RoI, UK and global economics
Slide pack re Ulster Bank NI PMI September 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, September 2014, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - November 2013Richard Ramsey
Slide pack re the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), November 2013. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, October 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), October 2014 Survey (Update Issued 10th November 2014)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack, Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, August 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, August, 2014. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack, Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, December 2013Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the December 2013 Ulster Bank NI PMI, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, December 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, December 2014, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, March 2015Richard Ramsey
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI for March 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, May 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, May 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, January 2014Richard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slidepack, January 2014. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, April 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for Ulster Bank NI PMI, April 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, January 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, January 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack Ulster Bank NI PMI February 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI February 2014, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack, Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, February 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, February 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Chart pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI January 2018 including analysis of global, eurozone, UK, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI Slide Pack August 2016Richard Ramsey
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, August 2016 including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK regions and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, October 2015, including sectoral analysis and analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack, September 2015Richard Ramsey
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, September, 2015, including analysis of of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI for August 2015, including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK regions, NI and Republic of Ireland performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, October 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), October 2014 Survey (Update Issued 10th November 2014)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack, Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, August 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, August, 2014. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack, Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, December 2013Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the December 2013 Ulster Bank NI PMI, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, December 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, December 2014, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, March 2015Richard Ramsey
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI for March 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, May 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, May 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, January 2014Richard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slidepack, January 2014. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, April 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for Ulster Bank NI PMI, April 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, January 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, January 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack Ulster Bank NI PMI February 2014Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI February 2014, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack, Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, February 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, February 2015, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Chart pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI January 2018 including analysis of global, eurozone, UK, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI Slide Pack August 2016Richard Ramsey
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, August 2016 including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK regions and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, October 2015, including sectoral analysis and analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack, September 2015Richard Ramsey
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, September, 2015, including analysis of of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI for August 2015, including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK regions, NI and Republic of Ireland performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) January 2017Richard Ramsey
Growth of business activity remains solid, but inflationary pressures intensify - The Northern Ireland private sector started 2017 on a positive note, with further increases in output, new orders and employment recorded in January. That said, rates of expansion eased from the end of last year. Meanwhile, price pressures continued to intensify, with rates of inflation for both input costs and output prices among the sharpest in the survey’s history.
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report, July 2017, including analysis of global, eurozone, UK, UK regions, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, October 2016, including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, November 2015, including sectoral analysis and analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, May 2016, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) November 2020. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2020 Slide PackRichard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) September 2020 - Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
September 2020 Survey Update
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
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If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
2. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3‐month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.
3. Global output growth accelerates in August…
Global Output - PMI
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-07 Feb-08 Jan-09 Dec-09 Nov-10 Oct-11 Sep-12 Aug-13
Total Manufacturing Services
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction
4. … with both manufacturing & services sectors posting
growth in the Eurozone
Eurozone PMIs: Output
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13
Composite (M&S) Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices
ExpansionContraction
5. Top performers within manufacturing incl. US, Denmark, UK
& NI. Underperformers incl. BRICs /Asia, Greece & Australia
PMIs: Manufacturing Output August 2013
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
S.Korea
Australia
India
Indonesia
France
Greece
Vietnam
Taiwan
Brazil
Singapore
Russia
China
Mexico
Turkey
Canada
Spain
Israel*
Ireland
Global
Switzerland
EZ
Japan
Austria
Italy
EU
Germany
Netherlands
Czech
Poland
NI
S.Africa
N.Zealand*
UK
US
Denmark
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices,
*July, for the US ISM is used.
UK, NI & RoI
€
6. The US, UK & Ireland post the fastest rate of service
sector output growth in August
€
PMIs: Services Output August 2013
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Australia
India
Italy
France
Brazil
Spain
EZ
Emerging Markets
Japan
Russia
Germany
China
EU
Global
NI
UK
Ireland
US*
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices, *
US Non-manufacturing which is wider than
services
€
7. Three of the four largest economies within the eurozone
are now expanding
Composite PMIs
(Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-07 Feb-08 Jan-09 Dec-09 Nov-10 Oct-11 Sep-12 Aug-13
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
ContractionExpansion
8. Acceleration in growth for the US, UK, China & the
Eurozone
Composite PMIs
(Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-08 Jan-09 Dec-09 Nov-10 Oct-11 Sep-12 Aug-13
Eurozone US (ISM) China UK
Source: Markit Economics PMIs, US includes construction
ExpansionContraction
9. All major economies posting an improvement in August
Manufacturing PMIs
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-08 Jan-09 Dec-09 Nov-10 Oct-11 Sep-12 Aug-13
US (ISM) China Japan Eurozone
Source: Markit Economics
Contraction
Expansion
10. But outside of China, Russia is the only one of the
BRIC economies in expansion mode (> 50.0)
Composite PMIs
(Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-07 Feb-08 Jan-09 Dec-09 Nov-10 Oct-11 Sep-12 Aug-13
Brazil Russia India Emerging Markets No Change
Source: Markit Economics
ContractionExpansion
11. … with a strong Aussie $ and a slowdown in Asia is
pushing Australia ‘Down Under’ too
Australia - PMI
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-07 Feb-08 Jan-09 Dec-09 Nov-10 Oct-11 Sep-12 Aug-13
Manufacturing Services No Change
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
ContractionExpansion
12. NI, UK & the RoI all post strong rates of growth in August. NI
firms record their fastest rate of growth since March 2007
Private Sector Business Activity - PMIs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit & Ulster Bank NI PMI
50 = threshold between expansion / contraction
ExpansionContraction
**PMI Surveys Exclude Agriculture & Public Sector**
13. PMI suggests growth in DFP’s new private sector composite index
(combines indices for construction, services, agriculture & industrial production) in Q2/Q3 2013
NI Private Sector Output Index Versus NI PMI
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2003 Q1 2004 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3*
PSO Q/Q%
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
PMI
NICEI Left Hand Scale PMI Right Hand Scale
Source: New DFP Northern Ireland Composite Economic
Index (NICEI) & Ulster Bank / Markit Economics NI PMI ,
* average for June & July
50 mark is the threshold for expansion / contraction with PMI
Expansion
Contraction
E i
14. NI firms report an increase in business activity, new
orders & employment over the last 3 months
NI Private Sector Activity
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
Business Activity New Business Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
ExpansionContraction
15. Forward looking indicators suggest more growth in all
three economies in the months ahead
Private Sector New Orders
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Aug-03 Apr-05 Dec-06 Aug-08 Apr-10 Dec-11 Aug-13
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
OrdersincreasingOrdersContracting
16. Surge in demand is leading to backlogs of work in
NI & the UK
Private Sector Backlogs
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Aug-03 Apr-05 Dec-06 Aug-08 Apr-10 Dec-11 Aug-13
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
IncreasingDecreasing
17. NI firms post the first increase in export orders since
October 2007
NI New Export Business
Monthly
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Aug-03 Aug-05 Aug-07 Aug-09 Aug-11 Aug-13
New Export Orders No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
GrowthAcceleratingContractionAccelerating
18. PMI underestimated job gains in 2012 (relative to official jobs survey).
PMI signals a return to employment growth in Q3 2013
NI Employment: PMI v QES*
35
40
45
50
55
60
Sep-03 Dec-04 Mar-06 Jun-07 Sep-08 Dec-09 Mar-11 Jun-12 Aug-13*
PMI Index
-1.5%
-1.3%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.5%
-0.3%
0.0%
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%
1.0%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job
losses
Job
gains
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number
of jobs in NI & includes the public sector
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI
Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion /
contraction,PMI 3mth averages except * average of
July & August
19. Firms within the UK, RoI & NI all post strong
employment gains in August
Private Sector Employment Levels
Monthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
JobGainsJobLosses
20. Private sector’s profitability squeeze eases
NI Private Sector Profit Squeeze
3 Month Moving Average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
Output Prices Input Prices No Change
Inflation
Deflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Profits
squeeze
Price of goods &
services falling
22. PMIs experience a heatwave in August with strong
growth reported everywhere…
Output / Business Activity
August 2013
50 = No change
60.7
58.4
57.2
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
NW SE Lon SW UK EM East WM NI Scot Wal Y&H NE RoI
PMI index
ExpansionContraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
23. … all the UK regions post growth over the last 3 months
Output / Business Activity
3 months to August 2013
50 = No change
54.8 55.0
58.8
40
45
50
55
60
65
NW Lon SE UK SW WM East Y&H Scot Wal EM NE NI RoI
PMI Index
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionContraction
24. …but NI is the only UK region to post a decline in
output over the last 12 months
Output / Business Activity
12 months to August 2013
50 = No change
53.1 52.9
48.3
40
45
50
55
60
Wal Lon Y&H NW SE Scot UK East EM WM SW NE NI RoI
PMI index
ExpansionContraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
25. All the UK regions and the Republic of Ireland post
employment growth in August …
Employment Levels
August 2013
50 = No change
51.8
50.9
53.6
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
WM NW Scot SW East NI NE UK Lon Y&H EM SE Wal RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingDecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
26. … and over the last 3 months to August
Employment Levels
Last 3 months to August 2013
50 = No change
52.3
50.3
54.1
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
WM NW SW East Lon Scot UK Wal SE NE Y&H EM NI RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingDecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
27. NI posts the steepest decline in employment & RoI the
sharpest rise over the last 12 months
Employment Levels
12 months to August 2013
50 = No change
50.7
52.3
48.5
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
WM EM SE East Scot Wal UK SW Lon NW Y&H NE NI RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingDecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
29. All three broad UK sectors witness a marked
acceleration in output growth in August
UK Business Activity / Output - PMIs
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-07 Feb-08 Jan-09 Dec-09 Nov-10 Oct-11 Sep-12 Aug-13
Services Manufacturing Construction
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction
30. UK economic growth accelerates in Q2 & Q3
UK GDP versus UK Composite PMI
UK Composite includes Construction
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3*
PMI Index
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
GDP Q/Q
GDP Q/Q PMI PMI No Change
Source: ONS & Markit Economics, * refers to July & August
31. RoI’s services sectors an acceleration in output growth
while construction remains sub-50 – but only just
RoI Business Activity - PMIs
3 month moving average
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-07 Feb-08 Jan-09 Dec-09 Nov-10 Oct-11 Sep-12 Aug-13
Manufacturing Services Construction No Change
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction
32. All three broad sectors reported increased levels of
business activity in the 3 months to August 2013…
NI Private Sector Output
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionContraction
33. …with all sectors reporting job gains over the last 3
months
NI PMI - Employment Index
3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13
Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
JobGainsJobLosses
34. NI’s manufacturing sector posts an acceleration in
business growth & new orders over the last 3 months
NI Manufacturing Activity
3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
Business activity New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
PMI
GrowthacceleratingContractionaccelerating
35. The UK, RoI and NI all witness an acceleration in
manufacturing output during the last 3 months
Manufacturing Output
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ContractionExpansion
36. The UK posts the strongest growth in new orders
Manufacturing New Orders
3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ContractionExpansion
37. N.Ireland is outperforming its European competitors
Manufacturing Output - PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-07 Feb-08 Jan-09 Dec-09 Nov-10 Oct-11 Sep-12 Aug-13
RoI Italy Spain Greece NI
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
ContractionExpansion
38. Cost price inflation remains for local manufacturing
firms but pricing power is returning
NI Manufacturing Input & Output Inflation
3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
InflationDeflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Profits
squeeze
39. PMI signals job gains in Q1 2013 followed by a fall in in
Q2 2013 and another rise in Q3
NI Manufacturing Employment: PMI v QES*
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Sep-03 Dec-04 Mar-06 Jun-07 Sep-08 Dec-09 Mar-11 Jun-12 Aug-13*
PMI Index
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in
QES Series
Job
losses
Job
gains
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment
Survey of the number of jobs in NI firms
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI
Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion /
contraction,PMI 3mth averages except * average of
July & August
40. Recent growth in NI service sector output / orders is
feeding through into higher levels of employment…
NI Service Sector (excludes Retail)
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
Business activity New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
GrowthacceleratingContractionaccelerating
41. In July, all three economies post output growth for the
first time since 2007. Growth accelerates in August…
Services Output
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
ContractionExpansion
42. … and strong new orders growth in the same three
economies
Services New Orders (excluding Retail )
3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ContractionExpansion
43. NI’s services sector sees inflationary pressures ease
NI Services Input & Output Inflation
3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
InflationDeflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Profits
squeeze
44. …with employment levels picking up in July & August
in N.Ireland
Services Employment
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
UK RoI NI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ContractionExpansion
45. The services PMI finally shows employment growth after
5 years of decline
NI Services Employment: PMI v QES*
40
45
50
55
60
65
Sep-03 Dec-04 Mar-06 Jun-07 Sep-08 Dec-09 Mar-11 Jun-12 Aug-13*
PMI Index
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job
gains
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of
jobs in NI and includes the public sector
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI
Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion /
contraction,PMI 3mth averages except * average of
July & August
46. Retailers experience a retail boom in July & August
Northern Ireland Retail PMI
3 monthly average
25
35
45
55
65
75
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
Business Activity New Orders Backlogs No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionContraction
47. Profits squeeze on local retailers eases significantly due
to increased pricing power
NI Retail Input & Output Inflation
3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Aug-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13
Input Costs Output Prices No Change
InflationDeflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Profits
squeeze
48. NI construction sector still reports growth in output
and orders. But employment dips in August
NI Construction PMI
3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
Feb-09 Nov-09 Aug-10 May-11 Feb-12 Nov-12 Aug-13
Output New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics, Ulster Bank PMI
ExpansionContraction
50 = No change
49. …but the profits squeeze continues
NI Construction Sector Profits Squeeze
3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-09 Nov-09 Aug-10 May-11 Feb-12 Nov-12 Aug-13
PMI Index
Input Prices Output Prices No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank PMI
InflationDeflation
50. NI PMI has been a reasonably good predictor of actual
job losses in the official employment surveys (QES)
NI Construction Employment: PMI v QES
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Sep-03 Dec-04 Mar-06 Jun-07 Sep-08 Dec-09 Mar-11 Jun-12 Aug-13*
PMI Index
-10.0%
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job
gains
*QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI
Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion /
contraction,PMI 3mth averages except * average of
July & August
51. UK (59.1) & NI (51.9) construction sectors post healthy
rates of growth in August. With RoI almost flat (49.7)
Construction Sector Output - PMI
3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
Feb-09 Nov-09 Aug-10 May-11 Feb-12 Nov-12 Aug-13
PMI Index
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction
52. New orders in the UK & NI have been rising over the
last 3 months but NI posts a dip in August (47.5)
Construction Sector New Orders - PMI
3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
Feb-09 Nov-09 Aug-10 May-11 Feb-12 Nov-12 Aug-13
PMI Index
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction
53. Growth opportunities for NI firms within GB market
particularly within the house building sector…
UK Construction Activity - PMIs
3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Civil Engineering Activity
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction
54. …but fewer opportunities in the RoI, with civil
engineering remaining particularly weak
Republic of Ireland Construction Activity - PMI
3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-07 Mar-08 Apr-09 May-10 Jun-11 Jul-12 Aug-13
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Engineering Activity
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
ExpansionContraction
50 = No change
55. Slide 55
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