NYU CUSP Capstone Project, in which we applied + revised the methodology of the Urban Displacement Project from UC Berkeley (2015) to the New York Metro Region using census data, in order to portray the dynamics of demographics, economy and housing in NY - Website: udpny.org (check out the map and the ‘mobility opportunities explorer’ in particular; also, under ‘About’ page you will find detailed explanations about the data, methodology, the full report and collaborations)

1. Urban Displacement Project
for the Greater New York
Capstone Project | NYU CUSP 2018
Sponsor: Local Initiatives Support Corporation (LISC NYC)
CUSP Mentor: Prof. Neil Kleiman; UCB Mentor: Prof. Karen Chapple
Team: Ruben Hambardzumyan, Hao Xi, Gerardo Rodriguez, Dana Chermesh

2. Motivation #1
Displacement WHO??
Mayor De Blasio, 2014
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
A need for greater
understanding of
Residential Displacement
phenomenon and its
political-economical roots
amongst policy makers

3. Motivation #1
Displacement WHO??
MayorDeBlasio,2014
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
The Housing New York
(2014) plan designated
15 neighborhoods to
accommodate additional
density and development

4. Motivation #1
Displacement WHO??
MayorDeBlasio,2014
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Many of these neighborhoods faced
Rapidly changing Housing Market
even before the rezoning were approved

5. oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Motivation #2
Why Region?
“A New Yorker’s View of the world” // The New Yorker, March 1976

6. oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
31 Counties
NY - NJ - CT
Context
New York Metro Region

7. oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Context
Urban Displacement Project (UDP)
Bay Area, UC Berkeley by Prof. Karen Chapple, 2015
Displacement Exclusion<< GENTRIFICATION >>
Loss of
low-income
households
Low Migration
of low-income
households

8. oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
US Census Bureau Data: 1990-2000-2015
Context
Urban Displacement Project (UDP)
Bay Area, UC Berkeley by Prof. Karen Chapple, 2015

9. Income Built
Environment
Race Education Housing
Market
Transit Migration
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Context
Urban Displacement Project (UDP)
Bay Area, UC Berkeley by Prof. Karen Chapple, 2015

10. oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Displacement Typologies >>
LI-not
changing
Advanced
Gentrification
Advanced
Exclusion
Context
Urban Displacement Project (UDP)
Bay Area, UC Berkeley by Prof. Karen Chapple, 2015

11. oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Methodology Validation
& Revision
Make it Interactive!
UDP Application to the
NY Metro Region
Methodology
01
02
03

12. oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
UDP Application to the
NY Metro Region
01
US Census Bureau Data
UDP Methodology
Interviews
<< Data driven >> << Community Engagement >>

13. UDP Application to the
NY Metro Region
01
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
• Decennial Census 1990
• Decennial Census 2000
• American Community Survey (ACS)
5-years estimates, 2012-2016
<< Data driven >>
US Census Bureau Data
UDP Methodology

14. UDP Application to the
NY Metro Region
01
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
US Census Bureau Data
<< Data driven >>
UDP Methodology
Preliminary results - Displacement Typologies

15. UDP Application to the
NY Metro Region
01
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Interviews
• Academia
• Local organisations
• Community representatives
<< Community Engagement >>

16. UDP Application to the
NY Metro Region
01
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Interviews
• Academia
• Local organisations
• Community representatives
<< Community Engagement >>

17. 01
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
<< Community Engagement >>East Bronx

18. 01<< Community Engagement >>East Bronx
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement

19. 01<< Community Engagement >>East Bronx
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement

20. oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
01<< Community Engagement >>East New York (Brooklyn)

21. << Community Engagement >>
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
01East New York (Brooklyn)

22. UDP Application to the
NY Metro Region
01
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
NotLosingLowIncomeHouseholds
AtRiskofGentrificationand/orDisplacement
OngoingGentrificationand/orDisplacement
NotLosingLowIncomeHouseholds
AtRiskofExclusion
OngoingExclusion
AdvancedExclusion
AdvancedGentrification
Are we missing
something?

23. UDP Application to the
NY Metro Region
01
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Are we missing
something?
Displacement
GentrificationX
V

24. UDP Application to the
NY Metro Region
01
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Are we missing
something?
Displacement
GentrificationX
V
Business Model?!

25. UDP Application to the
NY Metro Region
01
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Are we missing
something?
Displacement
GentrificationX
V
X
- Not driven by the flow of
creative class >> upper class;
- No Neighborhood Improvements
seem to occur;
- Aggressive Landlords
- LI displace VLI

26. UDP Application to the
NY Metro Region
01
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Displacement
GentrificationX
V

27. Methodology Validation & Revision
02
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
K-Means Clustering Webinars
<< Data driven >> << Community Engagement >>
Geographically Weighted
Regression
* Machine Learning
* Spatial Explanatory Analysis

28. Methodology Validation & Revision
02
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
K-Means Clustering
<< Data driven >>
Geographically Weighted
Regression
* Machine Learning
* Spatial Explanatory Analysis

29. Methodology Validation & Revision
02
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
K-Means Clustering
<< Data driven >>
Eight Typologies
<< >>
Eight Clusters
1. Population
2. Number of households
3. Median income
4. Median housing value
5. Median rent
6. % of renters
7. % of college educated
8. % of non-white households
Variables of Change
of the following:
* Machine Learning

30. Methodology Validation & Revision
02
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
K-Means Clustering
<< Data driven >>
Eight Typologies
<< >>
Eight Clusters
* Machine Learning
True-Positive Matrix

31. Methodology Validation & Revision
02
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
<< Data driven >> relevant patterns
Cluster no.3 —
Advanced Gentrification
40%
compatibility

32. Methodology Validation & Revision
02
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
<< Data driven >> relevant patterns
Cluster no.3 —
Advanced Gentrification
40%
compatibility

33. How well does the set of
variables spatially explain
low-income population change?
Methodology Validation & Revision
02
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
<< Data driven >>
Geographically Weighted
Regression
* Spatial Explanatory Analysis

34. Methodology Validation & Revision
02
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
<< Data driven >>
Geographically Weighted
Regression
Overall R2 = 0.3
* Spatial Explanatory Analysis

35. Methodology Validation & Revision
02
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Webinars
<< Community Engagement >>

36. Methodology Validation & Revision
02
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Webinars
<< Community Engagement >>
✓ 3 Sessions
✓ +15 Organisasions
✓ +30 Participants

37. UDPNY Revised Typologies + Map
02
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
LowIncome
Middle-HighIncome
Not Losing Low Income Households
At Risk of Gentrification
and/or Displacement
Ongoing Gentrification
and/or Displacement
Not Losing Low Income Households
At Risk of Exclusion
Exclusion
Advanced Gentrification
VLI
VLI - Highly Vulnerable

38. oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
UDPNY Revised Typologies + Map

39. CHECK OUT our UDPNY Website +
Mapping tools @ udpny.org
03
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement

40. Discussion & Implications
oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
- Inform policy makers and local
initiatives regarding the
relationship between planning
and displacement
- Empower local Communities
with mitigating gentrification
externalities
- Original UDP revision + update
- General + reproducible >
Go Global!

41. oftheGreaterNewYork
Gentrification&Displacement
Thank you