The document discusses the US "Asia pivot" strategy announced in 2011 to increase diplomatic, military, and economic engagement with Asia. It notes rising budget deficits and declining public support for reducing the deficit and defense spending. The document also examines the "Air-Sea Battle" concept for ensuring US access to Asia in the face of challenges. It discusses the US Marine Corps' posture in the Pacific and challenges of distributed basing. The concluding section notes budget constraints could limit the Asia pivot unless defense strategy and funding are better aligned.
Heritage Foundation has issued a set of five simple actions Congress must take in order to meet the electoral mandate of the American people. These five priorities represent the bare minimum of what is expected of our new representatives.
Defending Defense: Setting the Record Straight on U.S. Military Spending Requ...The Heritage Foundation
Since the end of the Cold War, administrations of both political parties have underfunded the military, first harvesting a “peace dividend” by reducing the size of the force and then repeatedly postponing investments needed to replace worn out equipment and preserve the technological advantages that have been a traditional source of American strength. Now, just as this strain on the military—engaged in today’s persistent irregular wars, yet unable to prepare fully for the wars of the future—reaches a point of crisis, come new calls to cut the Defense Department’s budget, amplified by the fears of a faltering economy, the federal government’s desire to boost spending elsewhere, and its inability to rein in other spending. Yet the arguments frequently made for Pentagon spending cuts are concocted from a mix of faulty analysis and out-of-context “facts.”
This section of Solutions for America discusses national defense in relation to Constitutional rights. It also addresses key problems with the current defense system and how to resolve them.
Nelson Mandela
Let the strivings of us all, prove Martin Luther King Jr. to have been correct, when he said that humanity can no longer be tragically bound to the starless midnight of racism and war.
Let the efforts of us all, prove that he was not a mere dreamer when he spoke of the beauty of genuine brotherhood and peace being more precious than diamonds or silver or gold.
Let a new age dawn!
~ Nobel Peace Prize 1993, Acceptance and Nobel Lecture
Heritage Foundation has issued a set of five simple actions Congress must take in order to meet the electoral mandate of the American people. These five priorities represent the bare minimum of what is expected of our new representatives.
Defending Defense: Setting the Record Straight on U.S. Military Spending Requ...The Heritage Foundation
Since the end of the Cold War, administrations of both political parties have underfunded the military, first harvesting a “peace dividend” by reducing the size of the force and then repeatedly postponing investments needed to replace worn out equipment and preserve the technological advantages that have been a traditional source of American strength. Now, just as this strain on the military—engaged in today’s persistent irregular wars, yet unable to prepare fully for the wars of the future—reaches a point of crisis, come new calls to cut the Defense Department’s budget, amplified by the fears of a faltering economy, the federal government’s desire to boost spending elsewhere, and its inability to rein in other spending. Yet the arguments frequently made for Pentagon spending cuts are concocted from a mix of faulty analysis and out-of-context “facts.”
This section of Solutions for America discusses national defense in relation to Constitutional rights. It also addresses key problems with the current defense system and how to resolve them.
Nelson Mandela
Let the strivings of us all, prove Martin Luther King Jr. to have been correct, when he said that humanity can no longer be tragically bound to the starless midnight of racism and war.
Let the efforts of us all, prove that he was not a mere dreamer when he spoke of the beauty of genuine brotherhood and peace being more precious than diamonds or silver or gold.
Let a new age dawn!
~ Nobel Peace Prize 1993, Acceptance and Nobel Lecture
The Army War College annual Strategy conferences are generally a decade or more ahead of what the generals can handle. This is a summary of the 2008 conference.
Lecture 7 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - SpaceStanford University
Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition,TIGPC, Gordian knot Center, DIME-FIL, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, ms&e296, raj shah, stanford, Steve blank, AI, ML, AI/ML, china, unmanned, autonomy, space, space force, general Raymond, space command
With the Obama Administration’s pivot to the Asia-Pacific region, IHS attended the Pacific Operational S&T Conference and Exhibition on 5-8 March in Honolulu, Hawaii, for an update on US Pacific Command’s (PACOM) priorities and challenges.
This presentation provides selected IHS analysis of the event, its themes, outcomes and implications.
2014 TechAmerica Foundation Vision Forecast OverviewCompTIA
The TechAmerica Foundation’s Vision Federal Market Forecast projects federal budgets in line with the Bipartisan Budget Act until policy choices crystalize after 2015. TechAmerica Foundation’s 50th annual Vision Federal Market Forecast Conference runs two days starting tomorrow at the Fairview Park Marriott in Falls Church, Va.
“Despite budget pressures, the federal government remains a large potential market for companies that are fully invested in it,” said Elizabeth Hyman, executive vice president, TechAmerica. “The Vision Forecast helps IT companies gain a competitive edge in the federal marketplace by gleaning valuable insight into the future of government spending.”
The overall forecast sees long-term economic challenges limiting federal IT budget growth, but opportunities still exist. The civil IT budget is flat in near term, but should grow with discretionary spending. The defense IT budget faces near-term pressure with inflation-level increases over five years.
The on-book unclassified IT budget will be $73.7 billion for fiscal year 2015. Without reform measures, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other mandatory expenses plus interest payments are set to rise to 79 percent of federal outlays by fiscal year 2024, leaving only a modest amount of room for discretionary expenditures.
THE MILITARY POWER OF GREAT POWERS AND THE LOSS OF UTILITY OF THE ARMED FORCE...Fernando Alcoforado
This article aims to demonstrate that the great powers have acquired such military power that it has rendered the armed forces of the vast majority of countries in the world useless. The deterrent military power against external threats from the vast majority of countries in the world has become irrelevant in the contemporary era with the use by the great powers of an immense arsenal of nuclear weapons and modern cyber war. The view that each country must have its armed forces to defend its territories to deter external threats has become irrelevant because the vast majority of countries in the world have armed forces based on obsolete structures from the past. This fact makes military spending in almost all countries of the world unproductive, making it unnecessary the existence of armed forces whose military spending should be used in economic sectors most relevant to the economic and social development of many countries.
The Army War College annual Strategy conferences are generally a decade or more ahead of what the generals can handle. This is a summary of the 2008 conference.
Lecture 7 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - SpaceStanford University
Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition,TIGPC, Gordian knot Center, DIME-FIL, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, ms&e296, raj shah, stanford, Steve blank, AI, ML, AI/ML, china, unmanned, autonomy, space, space force, general Raymond, space command
With the Obama Administration’s pivot to the Asia-Pacific region, IHS attended the Pacific Operational S&T Conference and Exhibition on 5-8 March in Honolulu, Hawaii, for an update on US Pacific Command’s (PACOM) priorities and challenges.
This presentation provides selected IHS analysis of the event, its themes, outcomes and implications.
2014 TechAmerica Foundation Vision Forecast OverviewCompTIA
The TechAmerica Foundation’s Vision Federal Market Forecast projects federal budgets in line with the Bipartisan Budget Act until policy choices crystalize after 2015. TechAmerica Foundation’s 50th annual Vision Federal Market Forecast Conference runs two days starting tomorrow at the Fairview Park Marriott in Falls Church, Va.
“Despite budget pressures, the federal government remains a large potential market for companies that are fully invested in it,” said Elizabeth Hyman, executive vice president, TechAmerica. “The Vision Forecast helps IT companies gain a competitive edge in the federal marketplace by gleaning valuable insight into the future of government spending.”
The overall forecast sees long-term economic challenges limiting federal IT budget growth, but opportunities still exist. The civil IT budget is flat in near term, but should grow with discretionary spending. The defense IT budget faces near-term pressure with inflation-level increases over five years.
The on-book unclassified IT budget will be $73.7 billion for fiscal year 2015. Without reform measures, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other mandatory expenses plus interest payments are set to rise to 79 percent of federal outlays by fiscal year 2024, leaving only a modest amount of room for discretionary expenditures.
THE MILITARY POWER OF GREAT POWERS AND THE LOSS OF UTILITY OF THE ARMED FORCE...Fernando Alcoforado
This article aims to demonstrate that the great powers have acquired such military power that it has rendered the armed forces of the vast majority of countries in the world useless. The deterrent military power against external threats from the vast majority of countries in the world has become irrelevant in the contemporary era with the use by the great powers of an immense arsenal of nuclear weapons and modern cyber war. The view that each country must have its armed forces to defend its territories to deter external threats has become irrelevant because the vast majority of countries in the world have armed forces based on obsolete structures from the past. This fact makes military spending in almost all countries of the world unproductive, making it unnecessary the existence of armed forces whose military spending should be used in economic sectors most relevant to the economic and social development of many countries.
Lecture 8 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - CyberStanford University
Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition,TIGPC, Gordian knot Center, DIME-FIL, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, ms&e296, raj shah, stanford, Steve blank, AI, ML, AI/ML, china, unmanned, autonomy, Michael Sulmeyer, cybercom,USCYBERCOM
The resilient U.S. late-cycle expansion contributed to a stalling pattern in ...Kumaran637735
The resilient U.S. late-cycle expansion contributed to a stalling pattern in disinflationary trends, another Fed rate hike, and rising long-term Treasury-bond yields
A theoretical Framework on Inflation and Retirement:
Improvements in longevity as well as declining fertility rates have led to an aging demographic across developed nations. These tendencies, alongside several decades of low inflation have led to shifts in pension and retirement policies across developed nations. It goes without saying that Retirement security remains a shared concern, one that has heightened as inflation has returned to the global landscape, adding further uncertainty to the financial security of retirees. From a policy perspective, monetary policy is the most blunt tool within the macroeconomic toolkit whereas retirement has increasingly become a household-level savings, investment and decumulation problem. Given the dependency of policy on inflation expectations and that of inflation expectations on household-level decision-making, we present elements of an incipient framework that may be used to integrate household and firm-level decision making into the contemporary macroeconomic policy toolkit.
The Finnish and Swedish accessions to NATO—even though incomplete as of now—have been interpreted in some corners as the beginning of the end for neutrality. Not picking sides in a war of aggression is untenable, they hold, cheering the decisions of some former neutrals to give up their signature foreign policies while berating those who still do not send weapons to Ukraine or sanction Russia. Whatever one’s stance on the policy side is, one point has been lost in the debate: neutrality is not a question of ideology but a fact of conflict dynamics. It just won’t go away. Not even the two World Wars or the 40 years of the Cold War could get rid of the “fence-sitters.”
Neutrality, always and everywhere, is a reaction to conflict(s). The current one over Ukraine is no exception, giving rise to neutral policies in roughly two-thirds of the world. It is a moot question if there should be neutrality or not. Nonaligned behavior of third-party states is a fact of international life and will remain one. There are really only two questions that matter: First, which neutrals will leave the stage, and which ones will be born? Second, will the neutrals play a constructive role in the new global conflict, or will they be relegated to the margins?
This talk will disentangle the neutrality debate by differentiating the legal components from the political and strategic aspects and discuss recent neutrality developments in Europe, Asia, and the Americas.
Dual citizenship was once universally reviled as a moral abomination, then largely marginalized as an anomaly. During the twentieth century, states were able to police the status and manage incidental costs to the extent that full suppression proved impossible. More recent decades have seen wide acceptance of dual citizenship as those costs dissipated for both states and individuals. Powerful nonresident citizen communities have played a crucial role in winning recognition of the status. A handful of states -- Japan notable among them -- have held out against this clear trend and increasingly vocal emigrant and immigrant constituencies and children of bi-national couples. This session will situate Japan's resistance to dual citizenship in a global historical context.
November 28, 2022
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government has given the go-ahead for a major redevelopment of Jingu Gaien, the cluster of sports facilities and green space adjacent to the National Stadium in Sendagaya. The project has recently become a focus of attention in Tokyo, with many people from across the political spectrum speaking out with concerns about the project.
The redevelopment plan is made possible by a loosening of height restrictions in the area that was implemented in conjunction with the Olympics, and former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori was involved in conceptualization of the plan. The redevelopment will eliminate nearly a thousand trees, two historic stadiums and several public sports facilities, and put in three high rise office buildings.
In this presentation activist Rochelle Kopp will describe the various concerns and issues related to the Jingu Gaien redevelopment project and how she and some other activists and academics are speaking out against the plan and urging that Governor Koike withdraw it and start over with input from the public and experts.
November 17, 2022
8 November 2022 was the last day of voting for the US midterm elections. These elections reflected the mood of American voters and give us some idea of the future course of American policy and of the political and ideological balance of power in the United States. They will also affect the ability of the Biden Administration to pursue its agenda.
Professor Yashiro, one of Japan's leading economists, will look at the results of Abenomics (a term coined to describe Japan's economic policy while Shinzo Abe was premier) and Prime Minister Kishida's plans for what he calls a "New Capitalism."
Observers of Japanese security and foreign policies have largely focused on analyzing Japanese policies in the area of traditional security. However, they would be remiss to disregard the string of new developments that have been occurring in Japan – namely that of “economic security.”
Prompted by rising U.S.-China competition, Japan has been undergoing rapid change in its economic security policies over the last few years. These changes range from organizational transformation to new legislation as well as increasing support for the private sector. This trend is likely to accelerate under the incoming Kishida administration, which has created a new ministerial post for economic security.
How has Japan’s economic security policy evolved in the last few years? What kind of changes will we likely see in Japan’s economic security policies under the Kishida administration? What impact will this “economic security awakening” in Japan have on Japan-U.S. and Japan-China relations? How should Japan cooperate with other key actors, such as the European Union, the Quad countries, the Five Eyes states, and Southeast Asian countries?
This seminar will address these critical questions and more with Akira Igata, who has been advising international organizations, the Japanese government, bureaucracy, and the private sector in economic security issues for many years.
Speaker Biography:
Akira Igata is Executive Director and Visiting Professor at the Center for Rule-making Strategies at Tama University. He is also the Economic Security Advisor for the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China and Senior Adjunct Fellow at Pacific Forum, a U.S.-based think tank. He advises Japan’s bureaucracy, politicians, and private sector as well as international organizations on economic security issues.
A half a year ago, the prospect of an LDP presidential election did not inspire flights of the imagination. After all, what could break the hammerlock the top three party factions – the Hosoda, the Aso and the Nikai – had upon the process of selecting the party leader? Who or what could outmaneuver the wily LDP Secretary-General Nikai Toshihiro, whom two prime ministers in a row found themselves powerless to budge from his post at the apex of the party’s secretariat?
Over the summer of 2021, however, several factors became catalysts for changes in the party’s internal power structures. A presidential campaign like any other had unfolded, with the faction leaders and the party’s senior officials left gasping as erstwhile subordinates have run away with the narrative and the initiative. So many assumptions about how the LDP “works” have been challenged that the unprecedented situation of half of the candidates being women has been largely subsumed.
What will we have learned from this election? Michael Cucek will offer his views, along with suggestions of avenues of future research into the contemporary LDP.
Closed Loop, Open Borders: Wealth and Inequality in India
Speaker:
Anthony P. D’Costa, Eminent Scholar in Global Studies and Professor of Economics College of Business, The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations
Speaker: Yu Koizumi, Project Assistant Professor, University of Tokyo
Presentation: Russian Military Posture in Northern Territory
Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations
Speaker: Elena Shadrina, Associate Professor, Waseda University
Presentation: What to Expect for Russia-Japan Relations: Contemplation against a Backdrop of Social and Economic Situation in Russia
Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations
Speaker: James D. J. Brown, Associate Professor of Political Science at Temple University, Japan Campus
Presentation: Japan-Russia Joint Economic Projects on the Disputed Islands: What are they good for?
More from Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies (ICAS) at TUJ (20)
Biological screening of herbal drugs: Introduction and Need for
Phyto-Pharmacological Screening, New Strategies for evaluating
Natural Products, In vitro evaluation techniques for Antioxidants, Antimicrobial and Anticancer drugs. In vivo evaluation techniques
for Anti-inflammatory, Antiulcer, Anticancer, Wound healing, Antidiabetic, Hepatoprotective, Cardio protective, Diuretics and
Antifertility, Toxicity studies as per OECD guidelines
Operation “Blue Star” is the only event in the history of Independent India where the state went into war with its own people. Even after about 40 years it is not clear if it was culmination of states anger over people of the region, a political game of power or start of dictatorial chapter in the democratic setup.
The people of Punjab felt alienated from main stream due to denial of their just demands during a long democratic struggle since independence. As it happen all over the word, it led to militant struggle with great loss of lives of military, police and civilian personnel. Killing of Indira Gandhi and massacre of innocent Sikhs in Delhi and other India cities was also associated with this movement.
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptxPavel ( NSTU)
Synthetic fiber production is a fascinating and complex field that blends chemistry, engineering, and environmental science. By understanding these aspects, students can gain a comprehensive view of synthetic fiber production, its impact on society and the environment, and the potential for future innovations. Synthetic fibers play a crucial role in modern society, impacting various aspects of daily life, industry, and the environment. ynthetic fibers are integral to modern life, offering a range of benefits from cost-effectiveness and versatility to innovative applications and performance characteristics. While they pose environmental challenges, ongoing research and development aim to create more sustainable and eco-friendly alternatives. Understanding the importance of synthetic fibers helps in appreciating their role in the economy, industry, and daily life, while also emphasizing the need for sustainable practices and innovation.
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...Levi Shapiro
Letter from the Congress of the United States regarding Anti-Semitism sent June 3rd to MIT President Sally Kornbluth, MIT Corp Chair, Mark Gorenberg
Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202
The French Revolution, which began in 1789, was a period of radical social and political upheaval in France. It marked the decline of absolute monarchies, the rise of secular and democratic republics, and the eventual rise of Napoleon Bonaparte. This revolutionary period is crucial in understanding the transition from feudalism to modernity in Europe.
For more information, visit-www.vavaclasses.com
Acetabularia Information For Class 9 .docxvaibhavrinwa19
Acetabularia acetabulum is a single-celled green alga that in its vegetative state is morphologically differentiated into a basal rhizoid and an axially elongated stalk, which bears whorls of branching hairs. The single diploid nucleus resides in the rhizoid.
Macroeconomics- Movie Location
This will be used as part of your Personal Professional Portfolio once graded.
Objective:
Prepare a presentation or a paper using research, basic comparative analysis, data organization and application of economic information. You will make an informed assessment of an economic climate outside of the United States to accomplish an entertainment industry objective.
Model Attribute Check Company Auto PropertyCeline George
In Odoo, the multi-company feature allows you to manage multiple companies within a single Odoo database instance. Each company can have its own configurations while still sharing common resources such as products, customers, and suppliers.
Natural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama University
Public Lecture Presentatin Slide (6.11.2013): Jason Wheelock: Understanding the Asia Pivot
1. 1
Jason Wheelock
Visiting Fellow, the National Institute for Defense Studies and Council
on Foreign Relations-Hitachi International Affairs Fellow in Japan
June 11, 2013
These views are the presenter’s and should not be interpreted as that of
the Congressional Budget Office.
Understanding the Asia Pivot
2. 2
Introduction to Asia Pivot
• Fall of 2011 Obama Administration issued a series of announcements regarding an expanded
diplomatic, military and economic focus on Asia.
• Obama speech to the Australian Parliament and US as a Pacific nation (November 2011).
• Clinton Foreign Policy Article-Cost Benefit Approach to US Engagement (November 2011).
• Pivot Versus Rebalance-Politicians Pivot/Generals and Admirals Rebalance.
3. 3
Deficits Projected in CBO’s May 2013 Baseline and Under an Alternative Fiscal Scenario
Total
2014- 2014-
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2023
In Billions of Dollars
CBO's May 2013 Baseline
Revenues 2,813 3,042 3,399 3,606 3,779 3,943 4,103 4,280 4,494 4,732 4,959 17,769 40,336
Outlays 3,455 3,602 3,777 4,038 4,261 4,485 4,752 5,012 5,275 5,620 5,855 20,163 46,677
____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ______ ______
Deficit -642 -560 -378 -432 -482 -542 -648 -733 -782 -889 -895 -2,394 -6,340
Debt Held by the Public at the
End of the Year 12,036 12,685 13,156 13,666 14,223 14,827 15,537 16,330 17,168 18,118 19,070 n.a. n.a.
Alternative Fiscal Scenario
Revenues 2,813 2,988 3,305 3,519 3,696 3,862 4,022 4,198 4,409 4,643 4,864 17,369 39,505
Outlays 3,455 3,671 3,881 4,156 4,393 4,632 4,934 5,209 5,485 5,836 6,082 20,733 48,279
____ ______ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______
Deficit -642 -683 -577 -637 -697 -770 -912 -1,010 -1,076 -1,193 -1,219 -3,364 -8,774
Debt Held by the Public at the
End of the Year 12,036 12,808 13,477 14,193 14,965 15,798 16,771 17,841 18,973 20,228 21,503 n.a. n.a.
Fiscal Environment
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Updated Budget Projections: Fiscal
Years 2013 to 2023 (May 2013)
4. 4
Deficit Reduction and Public Opinion
• In January 2013 Pew
Foundation Poll, 72 percent of
respondents felt reducing the
budget deficit was a top
priority for the President and
Congress.
5. 5
Defense Spending and Public Opinion
• The wars are winding down and fewer people see defense spending as a high priority. China and
other security problems are offset by domestic concerns.
6. 6
FY0
0
FY0
1
FY0
2
FY0
3
FY0
4
FY0
5
FY0
6
FY0
7
FY0
8
FY0
9
FY1
0
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
FY1
4
FY1
5
FY1
6
FY1
7
FY1
8
Other 9 6 3 8 3 7 1
War 0 23 17 73 91 76 116 166 187 146 162 159 115 81 88 37 37 37 37
Base 279 287 328 365 377 400 411 432 479 513 528 528 530 525 527 541 551 560 569
Total 287 316 345 438 468 479 535 601 666 666 691 687 645 574 615 578 588 597 606
Intial BCA Caps 527 540 551 563 576
Seq/Adj Caps 493 475 488 499 511 524
287
316
345
438
468 479
535
601
666 666
691 687
645
574
615
578 588 597 606
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
BudgetAuthorityin$Billions
DoD Topline and Budget Control Act
Other
War
Base
Intial BCA Caps
Seq/Adj Caps
Data source for “Base,” “War,” and “Other” funding: Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller)/Chief
Financial Officer, Fiscal Year 2014 Budget Request and FY 2013 Update, April 2013. Amounts for “Initial BCA
Caps” and “Seq/Adj Caps” based on presenter’s analysis of the Budget Control Act.
7. 7
Budget in Constant FY 2014 $
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Other 12 8 0 0 0 4 10 4 0 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
War 0 32 23 95 116 92 137 192 209 161 175 168 119 82 88 36 36 35 35
Base 401 398 445 480 480 488 486 497 537 567 569 558 550 501 527 533 535 533 530
Total 414 437 468 576 596 584 632 693 746 736 745 726 669 584 615 570 571 568 565
Intial BCA caps 527 533 534 536 537
Sequester/Adj Caps 475 481 484 486 489
414
437
468
576 596 584
632
693
746 736 745 726
669
584
615
570 571 568 565
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
BudgetAuthority
Observation #1: Using DoD FY2014 deflators to adjust for inflation, DoD’s Base Budget grew
in real terms by roughly 3.6% annually between 2000 and 2010. In 2000, DoD Base Budget
was $401 billion in FY2014 dollars and grew to $569 billion in 2010, as measured in 2014
dollars.
Observation #2: Using 2000 as the starting point, the cumulative increases in defense
spending between 2001 and 2013 were approximately $1.2 trillion. In comparison, the cost of
the war, measured in FY 2014 dollars, was approximately $1.5 trillion over the same period.
Source data: Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller)/Chief Financial Officer, Fiscal
Year 2014 Budget Request and FY 2013 Update, April 2013.
8. 8
“Retrenchment” versus “Foreign Policy
Begins at Home”
• In foreign policy circles, the term word retrenchment is often associated with
debates on reducing the size of US overseas commitments. The US has five
allies who fall under security treaties (Japan, ROK, Thailand, Australia, and
the Philippines). Prospects of a reduced military spending cause alarm and
raise fears of abandonment amongst allies and other security partners.
• Given the current fiscal environment, DoD is beginning the process to think
about the size, rolls and operations in a peacetime environment. Secretary
Hagel ordered a Strategic Choices and Management Review.
• Many analysts are now advocating a “Foreign Policy Begins at Home”
approach. Richard Haas states in his new book that “Core Defense
Spending” can be reduced to slightly below $500 billion without jeopardizing
American security.
9. 9
Air Sea Battle
• First mentioned in 2010 QDR, but did not receive much widespread attention until an article in
American Interest by General Schwartz and Admiral Greenert in February of 2012 that
outlined the concept and need for Air Sea Battle (ASB).
• Premise #1: Anti-Access Area Denial (A2AD) strategies and capabilities of potential
adversaries will erode the ability of the US military to project power to “hot spots” and will
erode security guarantees of the US, which will undermine US political influence.
• Premise #2: US military must retain ability to ensure access to all areas of the globe because
American interests are global and threats to US interests can develop from anywhere in the
World. Evidence provided was Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, and Operations Desert Shield and
Desert Storm.
• Premise #3: A fixed focus on a particular geography and reliance on large, expensive
overseas installations is out of date.
• Budget Question: What will it cost for the US to field the necessary capabilities to ensure
access to critical regions, such as the Asia-Pacific or Southwest Asia (i.e. the Middle East),
and what tradeoffs, such as a much US ground forces, will be considered. The Air Sea Battle
Office was established, in part, to ensure such funding for such capabilities is retained despite
the constrained defense budget.
10. 10
First and Second Island Chains and Air
Sea Battle
Source: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment. Greg Jaffe, Gene
Thorp, Bill Webster/The Washington Post. Published on August 1, 2012.
11. 11
Other Threats to US Forces in Asia
Pacific
Source: “Kim Jong Un Reveals His ‘US Mainland Strike
Plan’,” March 29th, 2013. Daily Mail.
North Korean Missile
Ranges (Max):
Nodong: 1,000 km
Taepodong-1: 2,200 km
Musadan: 4,000 km
Taepodong-2: 6,000 km
Source: BBC News, North
Korea Missile Program, April
12, 2013
How will capabilities of North Korea
and China evolve? Will a move to
Guam, which won’t be completed
till at least 2020, provide
significantly more protection than
the current posture?
12. 12
USMC Pacific Posture
• DoD’s stated policy is to have approximately 22,000 Marines west of the
International Dateline, the vast majority of which are assigned to Japan. That
was the goal before the pivot and will continue under the proposed
rebalancing.
• However, as of December 31, 2012, the number of Marines in East Asia and
the Pacific was about 19,000, with 18,676 in Japan. Because of OCO
deployments the number of units on Okinawa via Unit Deployment Plans is
less than before the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
• The current posture places the vast majority of the 22,000 Marines at bases
in Okinawa and the Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in Yamaguchi
Prefecture.
• The future posture calls for the 22,000 Marines to be in Okinawa, Iwakuni,
Guam and Australia.
13. 13
USMC Posture Challenges
• Command and Control because of the separation of HQ units at different
locations. Current the III Marine Expeditionary Force, the III Division, and the
III Marine Expeditionary Brigade HQs are all in Okinawa. Not the case under
the proposed posture.
• Tyranny of Distance in the Pacific and the effect on war plans and other
operational considerations, especially in light of an amphibious sealift
shortfall.
• Breaking up USMC presence into small, geographically distributed pieces
could result in a loss of economies of scale.
• Long Construction Timetable
• Costs
14. 14
Final Thoughts
• DoD faces challenges if they are faced with flat or declining budgets. Real
growth in the defense budget allowed for DoD to maintain personnel levels
during a time of significant increases in personnel and operation and
maintain costs.
• DoD might be faced with significant reductions in personnel levels for ground
forces that could affect basing plans for US forces.
• The current law (the Budget Control Act), long-term budget situation, and
diminished support for defense spending could significantly constrain
defense spending over the next decade.
• Although the Asia-Pacific is a region of great importance to the United
States, much more work is needed to make sure the structure, strategy and
funding of DoD is aligned if the “pivot” to Asia is to be successful.