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Statistics of Transportation safety by Courtney Quarles
What is Probability? Two types of Probability: 		-Theoretical probability 		-Empirical probability Theoretical Probability: Applies to situations in which the sample space only contains equally likely outcomes, all of which are known. Empirical Probability: Applies to situations on which we observe the frequency of occurrence of an event.
Words to know Experiment:		Any occurrence for which the outcome 			is uncertain, denoted by E. Sample space: 	The set of all possible outcomes of an 			experiment, denoted by S. Computing Empirical Probability The empirical probability of event E is P(E)   =   Observed number of times E occurs                   Total number of observed occurrences
Probability of an Event Not Occurring  The Probability of an event not occurring The probability that an event E will not occur is equal to 1 minus the probability that it will occur. P(not)  =  1 -  P(E)
Or Probabilities with Mutually Exclusive Events Mutually Exclusive events If it is impossible for events A and B to occur simultaneously, the events are said to be mutually exclusive. Or  Probabilities with mutually Exclusive Events If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
What is the probability of not dying on an airplane? P (not)  =  1 -  P(E) P (not dying in airplane) = 1- P (not dying in airplane) P = 1 - (1/11,000,000) P = 0.9999999091
What is the probability of not dying on a Motorcycle? P (not)  =  1 -  P(E) P (not dying in motorcycle) = 1 – P (not dying in motorcycle) P = 1 – (1/1020) P = 0.9990196078
What is the probability of not getting struck by a metro bus? P(not)  =  1 -  P(E) P(not dying bicycling accident) = 1 - P(not dying in bicycle accident ) P = 1 – (1/4919) P = 0.9997967066
What is the probability of dying on the subway metro bus? P (not)  =  1 -  P(E) P (not dying on the subway) = 1- P (not dying on the subway)
What is the probability of dying in a Motor vehicle? P (not)  =  1 -  P(E) P (not dying in motor vehicle accident) = 1- P (not dying in motor vehicle accident) P = 1 - (1/84) P = 0.9880952381
Works Cited  Odds of Dying in Plane Crash. 2009. 6 December 2009. <http://www.rc-trucks.org/odds-of-dying-in-plane-crash.htm> Britt, Robert Roy. “The Odds of Dying.” 2009. 5 December 2009. <http://www.livescience.com/environment/050106_odds_of_dying.html>   Kebabjian, Richard. “Plane crash Info.” 2009. http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm Bureau Of Transportation Statistics. 2009. 6 December 2009. <http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_01.html>

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Transportation Stat Courtney Quarles

  • 1. Statistics of Transportation safety by Courtney Quarles
  • 2. What is Probability? Two types of Probability: -Theoretical probability -Empirical probability Theoretical Probability: Applies to situations in which the sample space only contains equally likely outcomes, all of which are known. Empirical Probability: Applies to situations on which we observe the frequency of occurrence of an event.
  • 3. Words to know Experiment: Any occurrence for which the outcome is uncertain, denoted by E. Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment, denoted by S. Computing Empirical Probability The empirical probability of event E is P(E) = Observed number of times E occurs Total number of observed occurrences
  • 4. Probability of an Event Not Occurring The Probability of an event not occurring The probability that an event E will not occur is equal to 1 minus the probability that it will occur. P(not) = 1 - P(E)
  • 5. Or Probabilities with Mutually Exclusive Events Mutually Exclusive events If it is impossible for events A and B to occur simultaneously, the events are said to be mutually exclusive. Or Probabilities with mutually Exclusive Events If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
  • 6. What is the probability of not dying on an airplane? P (not) = 1 - P(E) P (not dying in airplane) = 1- P (not dying in airplane) P = 1 - (1/11,000,000) P = 0.9999999091
  • 7. What is the probability of not dying on a Motorcycle? P (not) = 1 - P(E) P (not dying in motorcycle) = 1 – P (not dying in motorcycle) P = 1 – (1/1020) P = 0.9990196078
  • 8. What is the probability of not getting struck by a metro bus? P(not) = 1 - P(E) P(not dying bicycling accident) = 1 - P(not dying in bicycle accident ) P = 1 – (1/4919) P = 0.9997967066
  • 9. What is the probability of dying on the subway metro bus? P (not) = 1 - P(E) P (not dying on the subway) = 1- P (not dying on the subway)
  • 10. What is the probability of dying in a Motor vehicle? P (not) = 1 - P(E) P (not dying in motor vehicle accident) = 1- P (not dying in motor vehicle accident) P = 1 - (1/84) P = 0.9880952381
  • 11. Works Cited Odds of Dying in Plane Crash. 2009. 6 December 2009. <http://www.rc-trucks.org/odds-of-dying-in-plane-crash.htm> Britt, Robert Roy. “The Odds of Dying.” 2009. 5 December 2009. <http://www.livescience.com/environment/050106_odds_of_dying.html>   Kebabjian, Richard. “Plane crash Info.” 2009. http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm Bureau Of Transportation Statistics. 2009. 6 December 2009. <http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_01.html>