PLN's renewable energy development strategy outlined in the 2021-2032 RUPTL aims to increase renewable energy capacity and meet Indonesia's net zero emissions target by 2060. Key points include:
1) Renewable energy capacity will increase from 8.2GW in 2021 to 28.9GW in 2030, making up 51.6% of total power generation capacity.
2) Private sector investment will play a major role, developing 56.3% of renewable energy capacity and 63.7% of solar PV capacity.
3) Challenges to developing renewable energy include improving local content, ensuring adequate financing and technology, and coordinating supply and demand.
3. www.pln.co.id |
Trilemma in Energy Transition
3
Affordable
Sustainable
Reliable
Decarbonization
Decentralization
Digitalization
Energy transition is driven by 3D:
• By 2060 electricity become the central energy carrier
• Gross electricity consumption would more than double, 85%
will come from renewable power
• The grid should be “more flexible” to integrate with much RE
and all energy sources
❑ Increase efficiency, reliability, and resilience
through automation and digitization along
the electricityvalue chain
❑ Increase customer engagement to
become “PROSUMER”(decentralization)
❑ Increase the penetration of renewable
energy through a flexible grid (de-
carbonization)
4. RECAP: PLN will continue to implement all energy transition
initiatives, to walk the net zero 2060 commitment
1.Renewable Energy Certificates
Short-term (2021-30) goal:
Over-deliver on NDC
Renewables
De-dieselization
Coal plant retirement
Biomass co-firing
Energy efficiency &
grid loss improvement
Gas expansion
Clean coal
A
Long-term (2031-60) goal:
Achieve Net Zero Emission
B
Electric Vehicles
Rooftop solar
Energy as a Service
REC1 / Carbon credits
Emissions trading scheme
C
More than USD 700 Bn total investment cost to reach net zero emission by 2060
Build a capable organization supported by innovative technologies, financing, and policies
D
Aspiration
Net Zero emissions by 2060
Shift away from high
carbon power generation
Growth powered with new
technologies / businesses
Develop supporting
technologies and ecosystem
Renewables
+ Battery Storage
+ Interconnections
Hydrogen co-firing
Nuclear
Carbon Capture Utilization
& Storage (CCUS)
Additional coal plant
retirement
www.pln.co.id | 4
5. In maintaining momentum from COP26, PLN has
implemented eight lighthouse initiatives on energy transition
Initiate study on carbon
capture & storage (CCUS)
implementation
Expand the electric
vehicles ecosystem
Plan and finance early
retirement of coal plants
Build more renewables
plants capacity
Enable renewable
consumption through
Green energy as a service
Pilot hydrogen and
ammonia co-firing
Roll-out smart grid &
control system in several
islands
Decarbonize coal and gas
plants
Expand renewable capacity
and its supporting systems
Lighthouse initiatives:
Develop green ecosystem
1
3
5
7
Implement biomass co-
firing and enhance the
biomass supply chain
2
4
6
8
www.pln.co.id | 5
6. Five unlocks needed for PLN’s journey to achieve net zero
emission 2060
Access to lower cost of financing, development
grants and G2G support
1. Capital outlay for generation, transmission and distribution expansion, and CCUS
Investment and technology sharing in
Hydrogen, BESS, and CCS, also domestic
industry readiness to support the transition
Policy support such as carbon market policy,
domestic market prioritization of biomass, import
tariff removal for EV, and CFPP retirement
Retraining and repurposing of existing
resources through local community development
and alternative job opportunities
Dimension
Price
Financing
Policy
Technology
Just transition
Incremental electricity cost of ~3.5 c/kWh to
customer, ~9 c/kWh for NZE scenario vs. 5.5
c/kWh for Business-as-Usual in 2060
Large-scale capital outlay1 of ~700 billion USD
(cumulative) for PLN
High upfront cost preventing uptake of low
carbon end-uses such as Electric Vehicles
Early-stage technology such as Hydrogen
cofiring, BESS and CCS to be deployed at scale
Negative social impact from coal plant early
retirement and transitioning to renewable energy
Key challenges Unlock needed
Subsidies / compensation / other mechanism
to reduce impact to electricity customers
www.pln.co.id | 6
8. www.pln.co.id |
Electricity Demand Forecast in 2021-2030
8
5.40%
4.91%
New
Commitment
Demand
Economy Recovery
6.66%
5.22%
Average 10 years
Average 5 years
6.42%
5.93%
For moderate scenario, as an
impact of Covid pandemic,
energy sales target was
delayed 3 years compared to
the target before Covid
pandemic (R0).
9. www.pln.co.id |
Role of Private Sector in the Power Development Plan
9
▪ Renewable energy will be 51.6% of the
total power plan development plan.
▪ PLN will support the major role of private
sector in the electricity infrastructure
development, which 64.8% of power plant
(including thermal and renewable energy)
will be developed by IPP.
▪ IPP will develop about 56.3% of renewable
energy and 63.7% of solar PV.
▪ For on-grid solar PV, 54.4% will be
developed by IPP.
▪ The future renewable energy development
will be joint-cooperation with PLN’s
subsidiary companies.
On-Grid Solar PV MWp Porsi
PLN 1.476 45,6%
IPP 1.760 54,4%
Total 3.236
Solar PV MWp Porsi
PLN 1.701 36,3%
IPP 2.979 63,7%
Total 4.680
Renewable Energy MWp Porsi
PLN 9.144 43,7%
IPP 11.779 56,3%
Total 20.923
Renewable Energy (RE) Portion 51,6%
IPP Portion 64,8%
RE IPP Portion 56,3%
Solar PV IPP Portion 63,7%
On-Grid Solar PV IPP Portion 54,4%
Developer MW Portion
PLN 14.269 35,2%
RE 9.144
Non RE 5.125
IPP 26.306 64,8%
RE 11.779
Non RE 14.527
Total 40.575
Power Plant MW Portion
RE 20.923 51,6%
Non RE 19.652 48,4%
Total 40.575
10. www.pln.co.id |
51.6% of Power Development Plan is Renewable Energy
(Based on RUPTL 2021-2030)
10
19.7
GW
20.9
GW
Gas PP
Coal PP
40.6
GW
RE (51.6%)
New and Renewable Energy Power Plant will dominate the additional
capacity of power plant (51.6%) with 24.8% total energy mix in 2030
Others
Solar PV
Hidro
Geothermal
Notes :
*) Existing Contract, Construction Stage
Total
Capacity
(GW)
RE
Capacity
(GW)
Energy
Mix
(%)
2021¹ 2025 2030
63 90 99
8.2 18.6 28.9
12.6 23 24.8
Total Capacity and Energy Mix
• In order to achieve energy mix target EBT 23%, additional
RE capacity of 10.6 GW is needed.
• Initiative cofiring biomass PLTU is expected to increase the
energy mix.
1
2
Thermal (48.4%)
11. www.pln.co.id |
Renewable Energy Development Plan
11
By Year (MW)
By Region (MW)
No Renewable Energy Capacity 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total
1 Geothermal PP MW 136 108 190 141 870 290 123 450 240 808 3.355
2 Hydro PP MW 400 53 132 87 2.478 327 456 1.611 1.778 1.950 9.272
3 Minihydro PP MW 144 154 277 289 189 43 - 2 13 6 1.118
4 Solar PV MWp 60 287 1.306 624 1.633 127 148 165 172 157 4.680
5 Wind Power MW - 2 33 337 155 70 - - - - 597
6 Biomass/Waste PP MW 12 43 88 191 221 20 - 15 - - 590
7 Base Load RE MW - - - - - 100 265 215 280 150 1.010
8 Peaker RE MW - - - - - - - - - 300 300
MW 752 648 2.026 1.670 5.546 978 991 2.458 2.484 3.370 20.923
Total
No Pembangkit - EBT Kapasitas Jamali Sumatera Kalimantan Sulawesi MPNT Total
1 Geothermal PP MW 1.915 1.180 - 75 185 3.355
2 Hydro PP MW 3.903 2.682 1.153 1.444 90 9.272
3 Minihydro PP MW 418 426 28 156 91 1.118
4 Solar PV MWp 2.906 193 304 176 1.101 4.680
5 Wind Power MW 260 110 70 130 27 597
6 Biomass/Waste PP MW 232 117 86 50 106 590
7 Base Load RE MW - 230 100 230 450 1.010
8 Peaker RE MW 300 300
MW 9.634 5.237 1.741 2.261 2.050 20.923
Total
12. www.pln.co.id |
Energy Mix Projection (Low Carbon Scenario)
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RE : 23,0% Gas : 15,6%
Coal : 61,0% Oil : 0,4%
23% of RE share by 2025, which consists
of: 8% hydro, 7.3% geothermal, 1.8% wind
and solar, and 5.8% from others (biomass,
waste.).
The RE will gradually increase to 24.8% by
2030 , while coal will be reduced.
Strategy to meet 23% RE target :
▪ Diesel power plant conversion to
renewable energy (De-dieselization).
▪ RE Plan increase up to 10.6 GW,
including solar PV 4.7 GW and wind
power 0.6 GW.
▪ Biomass co-firing for PLN’s CFPP with
10-20% of biomass, equivalent to 2.700
MW with 13 million tons of biomass
per year.
▪ PLTU retirement 1 GW (Muarakarang,
Tambaklorok and Gresik) in 2030.
290,5
TWh
354,4
TWh
445,1
TWh
425,4
TWh
406,6
TWh
388,4
TWh
372,0
TWh
336,1
TWh
319,4
TWh
304,4
TWh
RE : 24,8% Gas : 15,4%
Coal : 59,4% Oil : 0,4%
RE : 12,6% Gas : 16,6%
Coal : 67,0% Oil : 3,8%
13. 13
Challenges in the Development of Renewable Energy in Indonesia
Local Content
(TKDN)
Supply & Demand
Technology, Tariff,
Financing
Project
Implementation
• TKDN improvement & implementation
programs need to be supported by
technology mastery and domestic
industrial readiness.
• The need for synchronization of
funding with TKDN policies both
technical and economic aspects.
Power plant development needs to
consider the harmonization of supply
& demand, economics, and
reliability. Readiness is not only on
the supply side of generators but also
on the demand growth.
• Technological innovation encourages
the creation of more competitive
prices, so it is necessary to establish
a reasonable and fair tariff structure
on a business-to-business basis.
• Competitive funding is needed and
adaptive to regulations in Indonesia.
• Ease of licensing and land
preparation as a key issue in project
execution.
• Ease of access and project location.
• Geothermal development requires an
exploration stage to ensure the
availability of geothermal resources
with a fairly high degree of
uncertainty, which can impact
development costs.
14. Tantangan dalam Penyusunan Draft RUPTL 2023-2032
▪ Berdasarkan Peraturan Presiden No. 112 tahun 2022, RUPTL ditetapkan oleh Menteri setelah berkoordinasi
dengan menteri yang menyelenggarakan urusan pemerintahan di bidang badan usaha milik negara dan menteri
yang menyelenggarakan urusan pemerintahan di bidang keuangan negara dengan mempertimbangkan:
a. aspek keseimbangan antara penyediaan (supply) dan permintaan (demand);
b. kesiapan sistem ketenagalistrikan; dan
c. kemampuan keuangan negara
▪ Pemenuhan target bauran EBT sebesar 23% pada tahun 2025.
▪ Pembangunan infrastruktur ketenagalistrikan untuk melayani Additional Demand KTT yang belum ada dalam
RUPTL sebelumnya.
▪ Early retirement PLTU batubara akan berdampak pada kondisi sistem dan finansial PLN.
▪ Pembangunan Ibu Kota Negara (IKN)
▪ Kesiapan sistem dalam mengantisipasi masuknya pembangkit VRE yang massif.
▪ Isu short circuit level di sistem Jawa, Madura dan Bali
▪ Target JETP pada 2030 untuk mencapai emisi yang lebih rendah (290 JtT dari sebelumnya 357 jtT) dan target
EBT yang lebih tinggi 34%.