Dr. Rafael Popper presented on the evolution of foresight from version 2.0 to 3.0. He discussed examples of current Foresight 2.0 approaches like the Millennium Project and iKnow Project. Early signals of Foresight 3.0 include the CfWI Horizon Scanning Hub and CASI Project, which integrate research and technology development. Key challenges in moving from 2.0 to 3.0 include managing stakeholder behavior change, quality controlling intelligence, and balancing long-term sustainability with business models. Opportunities lie in exploiting smart specialization, establishing authority through champions, and clearly linking intelligence to policy priorities. The way forward involves cooperation across strategic intelligence communities, funding 3.0

1. Dr. Rafael Popper, PhD
Foresight and STI Policy, HSE Annual Research Conference, Moscow, 31 October 2013

2. Towards Foresight 3.0
• Strategic Intelligence 2.0 vs 3.0
• Examples of Foresight 2.0
– Millennium Project
– iKnow Project
• Early steps towards Foresight 3.0
– Smart research (R) + technology development (TD)
• CfWI HS Hub
• CASI
• Key Challenges and Opportunities
• The way forward…
Dr. Rafael Popper
Towards Foresight 3.0
2

3. Strategic Intelligence
Process Elements

4. Strategic Intelligence
2.0 vs 3.0

5. Strategic Intelligence
Process Elements

6. Strategic Intelligence
Process Elements

7. On Stakeholders
Foresight 2.0
– Roles
– ‘owners’ &
‘contributors’
responsible of
content production/
maintenance
Foresight 3.0
– Roles
– ‘owners’ responsible of systems wireframes
and content production/maintenance
– developers responsible for systems innovation,
upgrades and technology development
– contributors responsible for content validation
and functionality requests
– Experience
– Experience
– real-time and
– real-time, dynamic and tailored response to
dynamic response to
intelligence needs
user input
– Participation
– Participation
– mass participation as
– subject-matter experts and intelligence
main target
analysts as main targets
Dr. Rafael Popper
Towards Foresight 3.0
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8. On Intelligence
Foresight 2.0
– Folksonomy
– free classification of
information
Foresight 3.0
– Folktology
– system ‘owners’ proposing/adapting
ontological classifications and properties
– allowing free tagging and user-relevant
baskets of information
– Mainly Bottom-up
– Mixed Top-Down and Bottom-Up
– Users add content
– ‘owners’ add & commission content for
for others to use and
target/interested audiences to access (freely)
share
– target/interested audiences contribute on
win-win basis (access to intelligence and tools)
– Selling point: Basic trust
– contributions
available for the
world to use, reuse,
or re-purpose
Dr. Rafael Popper
– Selling point: Gained authority
– contributions regarded as state-of-the-art
intelligence for key audiences
– Thematic/sectoral knowledge hub
Towards Foresight 3.0
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9. On Business model
Foresight 2.0
– Long tail
– costs and ROI
through service
subscriptions or
‘sponsorships’
Foresight 3.0
– Long neck (with complementary long tail strategy)
– costs and return on investment (ROI) through
quality intelligence rather than quantity
– ‘serving’ well-defined master(s)
– Freemium
– Multi-level servitisation ecosystem
– basic services for
– commissioned intelligence services and
free and charging a
tailored-systems development services
premium for adds-on
– selected high-quality content freely available
for targeted outreach services
– Supply-driven
– ‘owners’ promoting
access to digital
resources and
information
crowdsourcing
Dr. Rafael Popper
– Ecosystem needs (or demand) driven
– ‘owners’ and contributors aiming to fill
knowledge gaps and promote forward-looking
responses to well-defined ecosystem
opportunities and challenges
Towards Foresight 3.0
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10. Examples of
Foresight 2.0

11. Examples of Strategic Intelligence 2.0
Millennium Project
Non-for-profit organisation
Collaborative RTD project
(1996-ongoing)
(2009-11) + “metamorphosis”
49 partners in 40+ countries
8 partners in 5 countries
“… global foresight network of
Nodes, information, and
software, building a global
collective intelligence system…”
Dr. Rafael Popper
iKnow Project
“… consortium-based RTD
developing concepts and tools
for interconnecting knowledge
on issues potentially shaking or
shaping the future of science,
technology and innovation in
Europe and the world...”
Towards Foresight 3.0
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12. Early signals of
Foresight 3.0

13. Towards ‘smart complementarity’
research
(R)
Dr. Rafael Popper
technology
development
(TD)
Towards Foresight 3.0
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14. Early steps towards Strategic Intelligence 3.0
CfWI Horizon Scanning Hub
Non-for-profit organisation
Collaborative RTD project
(2010-ongoing)
(2014-2017)
7 partners in the UK
19 partners in 12 countries
“… national authority on
workforce planning and
development, providing advice
and information to the health
and social care system in the
United Kingdom…”
Dr. Rafael Popper
CASI Project
“…consortium-based RTD
promoting Public Participation
in Developing a Common
Framework for Assessment and
Management of Sustainable
Innovation (SI)...”
Towards Foresight 3.0
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15. From Strategic Intelligence 2.0 to 3.0
2009
2010
Dr. Rafael Popper
2011
2012
2013
2014
Towards Foresight 3.0
2015
2016
2017
2018
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16. From Strategic Intelligence 2.0 to 3.0
2009
2010
Dr. Rafael Popper
2011
2012
2013
2014
Towards Foresight 3.0
2015
2016
2017
2018
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17. Towards ‘smart technology specialisation’
Futures Diamond Ltd.
SME (Prague-Manchester)
(2011-ongoing)
“… IT company specialised
in the development of
tailored solutions for
research and innovation
communities and
projects…”
Dr. Rafael Popper
Towards Foresight 3.0
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18. Key Challenges
Strategic Intelligence 2.0
Strategic Intelligence 3.0
– Stakeholders
– Stakeholders
– gate keeping dilemma, marketing,
– behavioural/paradigm change
spam, uninformed enthusiasts
in the intelligence community
– legitimacy in terms of the actors
– fragmentation leading to
carrying their own vision's flag
disperse efforts and stubborn
– ‘Lone Ranger’ effect
non-strategic competition
– Intelligence
instead of complementation
– quality control & noise management
(prisoner's dilemma)
– lack of protocols and procedures for
– ‘champion of champions’
data analysis, transformation of data – Intelligence
into intelligence for decision-makers
– managing intelligence
– decontextualised mapping of TEEPSE
gathering and analysis
context of issues & analysts
protocols and procedures
– long-term sustainability
– managing access to privileged
– Business model
and high-quality intelligence
– ‘Jack of all trades, master of none’
– Business model
– R+TD marriage management
– Long neck vs. Long tail tension
Dr. Rafael Popper
Towards Foresight 3.0
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19. Key Opportunities
Strategic Intelligence 2.0
Strategic Intelligence 3.0
– Stakeholders
– exploiting the emerging
‘crowdsourcing bubble’
– Intelligence
– unscrutinised intelligence
– ‘collective’ intelligence
illusion => pseudo-legitimacy
– abusing ‘big data’ hype
– Business model
– reinventing the wheel
– exploiting fragmented and
uncoordinated STI systems
– short-term and one-off
contracts without major
accountability
– detached from long-term STI
systems success
– Stakeholders
– exploiting ‘smart specialisation’
– authority & legitimacy of champions
– Intelligence
– focused yet 360 degree
– de facto and robust quality control
– clear data metamorphosis protocols
and procedures
– clear link to priority- and strategysetting processes
– clear link to (supra)national STI policy
– Business model
– distributed intelligence hubs
– paradigm- and vision-setting
– capacity and skills development
– rolling/growing contracts to develop
knowledge-based products/services
Dr. Rafael Popper
Towards Foresight 3.0
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20. The way forward…
•
•
•
•
•
Recognising the need for Foresight +
Building cooperation bridges between
complementary strategic intelligence
communities
Funding, supporting and studying
strategic intelligence 3.0 cases
Recognising the need for Networks of
Intelligence Ecosystems (NIE)
Promoting robust and strategic
research (R) and technology
development (TD) partnerships
– Demonstrating that real RTD
solutions can better to inform
decision-making
– Developing and applying more
research-oriented technology
solutions
Dr. Rafael Popper
Towards Foresight 3.0
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21. Dr. Rafael Popper, PhD
Rafael.Popper@manchester.ac.uk - Rafael.Popper@futuresdiamond.com
Research Fellow | Manchester Institute of Innovation Research | University of Manchester
Professional Advisor | Centre for Workforce Intelligence
CEO & Innovation Director | Futures Diamond, Ltd.
Foresight and STI Policy, HSE Annual Research Conference, Moscow, 31 October 2013
Towards Foresight 3.0
21
Dr. Rafael Popper