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Popper (2012) Grand challenges and STI foresight

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Popper (2012) Grand challenges and STI foresight

  1. 1. Grand Challenges and S&T Foresight
  2. 2.  Foresight is a systematic,  Key/Emerging/Frontier Issues  Environmental Scanning participatory, prospective and  Horizon Scanning policy-oriented process which, with  ART the support of environmental and  Anticipating horizon scanning approaches, is  Recommending aimed to actively engage key  Transforming stakeholders into a wide range of  TEEPSE futures activities anticipating,  Technological recommending and transforming  Economic (ART) technological, economic,  Environmental  Political environmental, political, social and  Social ethical (TEEPSE) futures.  Ethical
  3. 3. 1. Economic challenges  need to engage business through a combination of supply-side measures for promotion of RTD and demand- side measures to create innovation-friendly markets – see Aho Group Report 2. Social and environmental challenges  causes and consequences of issues such as climate change, food and energy security and the ageing society  initial drive will have to come from governments. 3. Science and technology  collective ability to respond to opportunities in frontier research GCs must be relevant, feasible and have research dimension
  4. 4. 1. Water security and vulnerability 12. Work-life balance and 2. Energy security and vulnerability mental health 3. Health, illness and well-being 13. Science, technology and 4. Sustainability and climate ethics change 14. Crime, security and justice 15. Governance, democracy 5. Ageing and demographic issues and citizenship 6. Food security and culture 16. Coexistence and conflict 7. Globalisation and localisation 17. Social pathologies and 8. Social cohesion and diversity ethics 9. Technological security, hazard 18. Social exclusion, poverty and risk and affluence 10. Consumption and behavioural 19. Economic prosperity and change growth dynamics 20. Urban and rural dynamics 11. Innovation, knowledge and 21. Education and skills technology dynamics dynamics
  5. 5.  Need for a broad research agenda  Forward-looking  addressing ‘wicked’ problems  Practices  Players  interconnecting knowledge  Outcomes  resolving conflicts in: ▪ definitions  Robust methodology ▪ methodology  Explanatory ▪ policy responses  Participatory  Exploratory  Need for a deep research agenda  Advisory  Addressing grand challenges  Worldviews approach  Addressing grand responses  Conservative  Reformist  Addressing emerging issues  Radical  Addressing knowledge governance  Applying a ‘worldviews’ approach
  6. 6. 1st message There are many ways of addressing GCs and shaping our future…
  7. 7. 3 4 5 1 2
  9. 9. 1  consensus about the need to address GCs  Classifying GCs  huge amount of information on GCs  Economic  problem of effective knowledge management (e.g. impact  Social & of climate change on cities, consequences of ageing Environmental population for workforce skills, etc.).  Science and technology  problem of interactions between various GCs (e.g. impact of climate change on water and food security, impacts of  Selecting GCs ageing or migration).  Geographical  problem of Information overload, with studies at various relevance levels of granularity, and considerable controversy in many  RTD relevance topics.  Socio-economic feasibility  problem that GCs are NOT just “big problems”. They represent agendas for RTD, innovation and the development  Defining GCs space of conducive environments for adoption of innovations.  Strata  problem of classifying GCs in terms of:  Linkages ▪ Geographical relevance  Borders of strata  Control mechanisms ▪ Knowledge domain and RTD relevance ▪ Feasibility as an economic or social investment
  10. 10. 2  GRs to GCs will almost certainly require:  Applying multiple  interdisciplinary knowledge development approaches to GRs  multi-stakeholder contributions to and  Interdisciplinary applications of this knowledge base  Multi-stakeholder  a policy mix of actions (developing a policy  Policy mix roadmap that spans several traditionally distinct policy domains).  Promoting stakeholder engagement through:  Far too often specific efforts to address GCs –  Delphi surveys such as geoengineering plans, or calls for massive  Expert workshops change in consumer behaviour, smart metering and  Gaming activities carbon taxes (all these in the context of  Scenario building energy/climate change challenges) – are conceptualised in very narrow ways.  Roadmapping  Visualisation tools  The social resistance, technical difficulties, leads and lags in adjustment and transition, are poorly taken  Networking tools into account.  Etc.
  11. 11. 3  Applying horizon scanning & issue mapping  Developing a robust  Mapping issues against GCs and GRs emerging issues MAP  Monitoringissues  Assessing factors shaping the trajectories of  Analysing issues ▪ GCs  Positioningissues ▪ GRs  Paying particular attention to  Mapping emerging ‘issues’ such as: ▪ Seeds of change (“weak signals”)  Weak Signals and ▪ Potential surprises (“wild cards”) potential Wild cards  Key technologies  Using bottom-up approaches such as surveys,  Visions & scenarios  TEEPSE drivers citizen panels and web-based crowdsourcing  SWOT & GCs for the analysis of emerging issues relevant to  Roadmaps GCs &GRs  Models  Etc.
  12. 12. 4  Effective knowledge governance (KG) requires:  Overcoming language barriers, cultural differences,  Identifying the right balance of methods competition and fragmentation of knowledge across supporting: disciplines, professions, and localities.  Knowledge push  Exploiting creative environments, commercialisation, standardisation and innovations (technological & social)  Knowledge pull  Governance involves the codification of knowledge and the  Using a wide range of development of mechanisms to: KG strategies:  Improve access/location  Balancing interactivity  Promote validation/evaluation  Responding to ‘hot’  Assess implications for action (both present and future) & current topics  Promoting ‘gaming’  KG must be supported by social technologies: ▪ rating  situating and interconnecting codified knowledge ▪ scoring  situating and interconnecting knowledge communities ▪ user rights  enabling better communication and networking between experts and stakeholders of different types ▪ badges & titles ▪ Etc.
  13. 13. 5  Effective use of ‘worldviews’ approach requires interactive/participatory settings capable of:  A worldviews approach can help to identify:  Identifying key features of different worldviews  Key features ▪ using deskwork  Key limitations ▪ using workshops by proponents, or  Key similarities ▪ using experts familiar with the worldviews  Key ‘boundary ▪ enabling direct comparison around specific points objects’  Identifying key limitations in their abilities to grasp major problems and solutions  Worldviews approach  Identifying key points of potential agreements about  Conservative gaps in knowledge (though not necessarily about how  Reformist to most effectively resolve these).  Radical  Identifying key “boundary objects” for potential  Etc. agreement about key features of a phenomenon, and alignment in terms of action without necessarily achieving consensus about many other things
  14. 14. 2nd message We use a wide range of tools to support foresight & horizon scanning processes addressing Grand Challenges…
  15. 15. NEW Methodology Toolkit 44 methodology toolkit
  16. 16. 3rd message We use networked innovation approaches to provide information technology (IT) and software solutions to government, business, research and education actors at local, national and international levels.
  17. 17. “ Futures Thinking Applied ” 1 2 3 4
  18. 18. The Innovation Systems Company “ Foresight Knowledge System ” A European Union supported platform aimed to explore, share and analyse forward-looking practices, players and outcomes in the world. 1
  19. 19. The Innovation Systems Company “ Horizon Scanning Platform ” A horizon scanning system on key issues affecting the future of the health and social care workforce planning in the United Kingdom. 2 Beta 1.1 to be launched in April 2012
  20. 20. The Innovation Systems Company “ Emerging Issues Platform ” An interactive system to map emerging issues, future 'shakers' (wild cards) and 'shapers' (weak signals) of science, technology and innovation in the world. 3
  21. 21. The Innovation Systems Company “ Stakeholder Engagement System ” An participatory system aimed to improve short-medium-to-long-term decision-making of public, private & international actors. 4
  22. 22. “ Thank you for your attention ” 