Foresight is a systematic, Key/Emerging/Frontier Issues Environmental Scanning participatory, prospective and Horizon Scanning policy-oriented process which, with ART the support of environmental and Anticipating horizon scanning approaches, is Recommending aimed to actively engage key Transforming stakeholders into a wide range of TEEPSE futures activities anticipating, Technological recommending and transforming Economic (ART) technological, economic, Environmental Political environmental, political, social and Social ethical (TEEPSE) futures. Ethical
1. Economic challenges need to engage business through a combination of supply-side measures for promotion of RTD and demand- side measures to create innovation-friendly markets – see Aho Group Report2. Social and environmental challenges causes and consequences of issues such as climate change, food and energy security and the ageing society initial drive will have to come from governments.3. Science and technology collective ability to respond to opportunities in frontier research GCs must be relevant, feasible and have research dimension
1. Water security and vulnerability 12. Work-life balance and2. Energy security and vulnerability mental health3. Health, illness and well-being 13. Science, technology and4. Sustainability and climate ethics change 14. Crime, security and justice 15. Governance, democracy5. Ageing and demographic issues and citizenship6. Food security and culture 16. Coexistence and conflict7. Globalisation and localisation 17. Social pathologies and8. Social cohesion and diversity ethics9. Technological security, hazard 18. Social exclusion, poverty and risk and affluence10. Consumption and behavioural 19. Economic prosperity and change growth dynamics 20. Urban and rural dynamics11. Innovation, knowledge and 21. Education and skills technology dynamics dynamics
Need for a broad research agenda Forward-looking addressing ‘wicked’ problems Practices Players interconnecting knowledge Outcomes resolving conflicts in: ▪ definitions Robust methodology ▪ methodology Explanatory ▪ policy responses Participatory Exploratory Need for a deep research agenda Advisory Addressing grand challenges Worldviews approach Addressing grand responses Conservative Reformist Addressing emerging issues Radical Addressing knowledge governance Applying a ‘worldviews’ approach
1st messageThere are many ways of addressing GCs and shaping our future…
ADDRESSING GRAND CHALLENGES, GRAND RESPONSES, EMERGING ISSUES AND KNOWLEDGE GOVERNANCE INForesight & Horizon Scanning (FHS)
1 consensus about the need to address GCs Classifying GCs huge amount of information on GCs Economic problem of effective knowledge management (e.g. impact Social & of climate change on cities, consequences of ageing Environmental population for workforce skills, etc.). Science and technology problem of interactions between various GCs (e.g. impact of climate change on water and food security, impacts of Selecting GCs ageing or migration). Geographical problem of Information overload, with studies at various relevance levels of granularity, and considerable controversy in many RTD relevance topics. Socio-economic feasibility problem that GCs are NOT just “big problems”. They represent agendas for RTD, innovation and the development Defining GCs space of conducive environments for adoption of innovations. Strata problem of classifying GCs in terms of: Linkages ▪ Geographical relevance Borders of strata Control mechanisms ▪ Knowledge domain and RTD relevance ▪ Feasibility as an economic or social investment
2 GRs to GCs will almost certainly require: Applying multiple interdisciplinary knowledge development approaches to GRs multi-stakeholder contributions to and Interdisciplinary applications of this knowledge base Multi-stakeholder a policy mix of actions (developing a policy Policy mix roadmap that spans several traditionally distinct policy domains). Promoting stakeholder engagement through: Far too often specific efforts to address GCs – Delphi surveys such as geoengineering plans, or calls for massive Expert workshops change in consumer behaviour, smart metering and Gaming activities carbon taxes (all these in the context of Scenario building energy/climate change challenges) – are conceptualised in very narrow ways. Roadmapping Visualisation tools The social resistance, technical difficulties, leads and lags in adjustment and transition, are poorly taken Networking tools into account. Etc.
3 Applying horizon scanning & issue mapping Developing a robust Mapping issues against GCs and GRs emerging issues MAP Monitoringissues Assessing factors shaping the trajectories of Analysing issues ▪ GCs Positioningissues ▪ GRs Paying particular attention to Mapping emerging ‘issues’ such as: ▪ Seeds of change (“weak signals”) Weak Signals and ▪ Potential surprises (“wild cards”) potential Wild cards Key technologies Using bottom-up approaches such as surveys, Visions & scenarios TEEPSE drivers citizen panels and web-based crowdsourcing SWOT & GCs for the analysis of emerging issues relevant to Roadmaps GCs &GRs Models Etc.
4 Effective knowledge governance (KG) requires: Overcoming language barriers, cultural differences, Identifying the right balance of methods competition and fragmentation of knowledge across supporting: disciplines, professions, and localities. Knowledge push Exploiting creative environments, commercialisation, standardisation and innovations (technological & social) Knowledge pull Governance involves the codification of knowledge and the Using a wide range of development of mechanisms to: KG strategies: Improve access/location Balancing interactivity Promote validation/evaluation Responding to ‘hot’ Assess implications for action (both present and future) & current topics Promoting ‘gaming’ KG must be supported by social technologies: ▪ rating situating and interconnecting codified knowledge ▪ scoring situating and interconnecting knowledge communities ▪ user rights enabling better communication and networking between experts and stakeholders of different types ▪ badges & titles ▪ Etc.
5 Effective use of ‘worldviews’ approach requires interactive/participatory settings capable of: A worldviews approach can help to identify: Identifying key features of different worldviews Key features ▪ using deskwork Key limitations ▪ using workshops by proponents, or Key similarities ▪ using experts familiar with the worldviews Key ‘boundary ▪ enabling direct comparison around specific points objects’ Identifying key limitations in their abilities to grasp major problems and solutions Worldviews approach Identifying key points of potential agreements about Conservative gaps in knowledge (though not necessarily about how Reformist to most effectively resolve these). Radical Identifying key “boundary objects” for potential Etc. agreement about key features of a phenomenon, and alignment in terms of action without necessarily achieving consensus about many other things
2nd messageWe use a wide range of tools to supportforesight & horizon scanning processes addressing Grand Challenges…
3rd message We use networked innovation approaches to provideinformation technology (IT) and software solutions togovernment, business, research and education actors at local, national and international levels.
The Innovation Systems Companywww.futuresdiamond.com“ Foresight Knowledge System ” A European Union supported platform aimed to explore, share and analyse forward-looking practices, players and outcomes in the world. 1 http://www.mappingforesight.eu
The Innovation Systems Companywww.futuresdiamond.com“ Horizon Scanning Platform ” A horizon scanning system on key issues affecting the future of the health and social care workforce planning in the United Kingdom. 2 Beta 1.1 to be launched in April 2012
The Innovation Systems Companywww.futuresdiamond.com“ Emerging Issues Platform ” An interactive system to map emerging issues, future shakers (wild cards) and shapers (weak signals) of science, technology and innovation in the world. 3 http://bank.iknowfutures.eu
The Innovation Systems Companywww.futuresdiamond.com“ Stakeholder Engagement System ” An participatory system aimed to improve short-medium-to-long-term decision-making of public, private & international actors. 4 http://delphi.iknowfutures.eu