Foresight scoping visit to Colombia


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Foresight scoping visit to Colombia

  1. 1. Opportunities for Engagementwith the University of Manchester & Futures Diamond UK Science and Innovation Delegation to Colombia Bogota-Medellin-Cali, Colombia (16-20 April 2012)
  2. 2.  Fastest climber in Shanghai Ranking 50% increase in research grant income since 2004 3rd or 4th in RAE2008 – depending on measures used Major improvement in total third-party investment in University intellectual property as evidenced by the dramatic increase in invention disclosures (up 56%) and licenses issued (up 123%); Substantial transformation of the physical infrastructure of the campus with more than £400m invested through the largest capital programme ever undertaken by a UK university in modern times
  3. 3. Manchester: Britains greatest university?It now has more working Nobel Laureates than any university in thecountry – and a history of discoveries that have shaped theworld, writes Jonathan Brown - 9 October 2010
  4. 4. Dalton Nuclear InstituteManchester Cancer Research Centre Brooks World Poverty Institute
  5. 5. Band 1China, Europe, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and U.S.A.Band 2Australia, Brazil, Canada, Gulf States, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Taiwan.Band 3Rest of the World
  6. 6. Industrial research income Non-EU IndustryEU Industry 16% 11% UK Industry 73%
  7. 7. We aim to commercialise the intellectual property that we generate Our motives  To fulfil a public mission (economic and social impact) by ensuring that our work is commercialised  To attract the best academics  To at least break-even on University cash invested
  8. 8. 1. Research themes2. Technology strategy and innovation management3. Services and organisational innovation4. Science, innovation policy and strategic intelligence (foresight & horizon scanning)5. Innovation and sustainability6. Innovation, innovation systems and economic development
  9. 9. 1. Evaluation of Science and Technology Policies2. Foresight: Horizon-scanning and Scenarios3. Key Issues and Strategies4. Science Technology and Innovation Policy
  10. 10. 1. MSc Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship2. MSc Accounting and Finance3. MSc Analytics: Operational Research and Risk Analysis4. MSc Chinese Business and Management5. MSc Corporate Communications and Reputation Management6. MSc Finance and Business Economics7. MSc Finance8. MBus Global Business Analysis9. MSc Healthcare Management10. MSc Human Resource Management and Industrial Relations11. MSc Human Resource Management and Comparative Industrial Relations (International)12. MSc Information Systems: Business IT13. MSc Information Systems: e-business Technology14. MSc Information Systems: Organisations and Management15. MSc International Business and Management16. MSc Management17. MSc Managerial Psychology18. MSc Marketing19. MSc Operations, Project and Supply Chain Management20. MScOrganisational Psychology21. MSc Quantitative Finance: Financial Engineering22. MSc Quantitative Finance: Risk Management
  11. 11.  Duration: 12 months full-time or 24 months part-time Our masters looks at how:  new ideas become successful products  entrepreneurial expertise creates growth  companies harness knowledge to remain competitive  knowledge shapes society and vice versa  climate change can be tackled with new technology  to overcome the practical challenges associated with creating a new entrepreneurial venture  economies can be transformed through successive gales of creative destruction?
  12. 12. 1. Target and build-up centers of excellence in universities,2. Bring business and HEI cultures closer by ensuring that business and academic leaders network and that this is matched by networking at middle rank.3. The universities should develop concerted strategy for interacting with business networks and helping to create new networks where they do not exist. They should also be prepared to drop those that outlived their purpose.4. The City-Regional Development Agency along with businesses and universities should consider mapping and evaluating their networks as first step to broader proactive strategy. More systematic use made of existing networks to get access to prime movers and shakers nationally and worldwide.5. Universities provide physical space for networks at their entrepreneurial interfaces such as incubators.
  13. 13. 6. Engage locally based business education in developing leaders and managers equipped to work in networked knowledge capital.7. Engage business in mentoring university staff in terms of understanding the business environment.8. Focus on a knowledge-based inward investment strategy9. Promote the ‘Knowledge Capital’10. Foster a ‘can-do’ culture
  14. 14.  Horizon Scanning (HS) is a structured  NEF Issues  New and continuous activity aimed at  Emerging monitoring, analysing and positioning  Frontier (MAP) ‘frontier issues’ that are  MAP relevant for policy, research and  Monitoring strategic agendas. The types of issues  Analysing mapped by HS include new/emerging:  Positioning trends, policies, products, services, st  Agendas akeholders, technologies, practices,  Policy behaviours, attitudes, ‘surprises’  Research (wild cards) and ‘seeds of change’  Strategy (weak signals).
  15. 15.  Foresight is a  Key/Emerging/Frontier Issues  Environmental Scanning systematic, participatory, prospecti  Horizon Scanning ve and policy-oriented process  ART which, with the support of  Anticipating environmental and horizon  Recommending scanning approaches, is aimed to  Transforming actively engage key stakeholders  TEEPSE futures into a wide range of activities  Technological anticipating, recommending and  Economic transforming (ART)  Environmental  Political technological, economic, environm  Social ental, political, social and ethical  Ethical (TEEPSE) futures.
  16. 16.  Weak Signals are ambiguous events, often  Influenced by referred to as “seeds of change”, providing  Mental frameworks advance intelligence or “hints” about potentially  Subjective interpretations important futures, e.g. Wild Cards, challenges and opportunities. Weak Signals lie in the eye of  Limited information the beholder and are often influenced by the  Time/Context mental frameworks and subjective  i3 uncertain issues interpretations of individuals with limited information about emerging  Interpretation trends, developments or issues in a particular  Importance time and context. Their “weakness” is directly  Implications proportional to levels of uncertainty about their interpretations, importance and implications in  Pseudo-evidence-based the short-medium-to-long-term. Weak Signals are  Unclear observables unclear observables warning us about the possibility of future “game changing” events.  Creativity-based  Game changing events
  17. 17. strategies 1st messageThere are many “futures” around us…
  18. 18. Innovation Systems Our Mapping Foresight work has produced a > 1000 Mapping vast amount of futures-related information cases mapped Foresight unprecedented in the world > 2000 Identified Key Lessons Our Mapping Foresight activities have been + useful to understand foresight practices Findings in Europe and other world regions 846 cases mapped Mapping > 1600 Foresight identified & Forecasting 767 Introducing cases mapped Wild Cards & > 1400 Introducing Weak Signals identified networking (WI-WE) (SNA) and systems 437 systemic + cases mapped analyses Web 2.0 scanning > 800 into + identified Foresight 100 Bottom-up cases mapped Evaluation (Foresight Ark) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-2012
  19. 19. 2nd message There are many waysof shaping our future…
  20. 20. NEWForesight & Horizon Scanning (FHS) Process Management Framework
  21. 21. 3 4 51 2
  22. 22. 3rd messageWe have some tools to supportforesight & horizon scanning…
  23. 23. NEWMethodology Toolkit 44 methodology toolkit
  24. 24. Top-Down Horizon Scanning Horizon Scanning Outward-LookingInward-Looking Strategy 1 Strategy 2 ILTD OLTD YOUR AREA OF CONCERN Horizon Scanning Horizon Scanning Strategy 3 Strategy 4 ILBU OLBU Bottom-Up
  25. 25. So far… 969 files forunregistered users vs. 1061 files for iKnow members
  26. 26. New iKnowFuturesproposal submitted to the EC 1700+members in 80countries By 9.2.2012Since Feb 2011
  27. 27. The iScanisan advanced strategicintelligence, f oresight and horizon scanning search engine. A kind of “Issues Google”
  28. 28. 1,000+ issues mapped against EC FP7 Themes, FRASCATI,NACE sectors andGrand Challenges
  29. 29. Mapping Wild Cards Mapping Weak Signals Nomination Nomination 1. source 1. source 2. theme 2. theme 3. sub-theme 3. sub-theme 4. references 4. references 5. short name / headline 5. short name / headline 6. Abstract 6. abstract likelihood Description18 7. Description 1. manifestation 1. typology 2. potential implications 2. importance 3. importance Analysis Analysis early indicators 1. filterscriteria 1. 2. main drivers 2. main drivers 3. risks & opportunities 3. risks & opportunities 4. stakeholders’ actions 4. stakeholders’ actions Interconnection Interconnection 1. Grand Challenges 1. Grand Challenges 2. thematic relevance 2. thematic relevance 3. ERA relevance 3. ERA relevance 4. research-friendly strategies 4. research-friendly strategies 5. RTD & STI policy relevance 5. RTD & STI policy relevance
  30. 30. Delphi results on September 2011 60 60 900+ ISSUES. Key facts 4000+ assessments to and figures 60 Wild Cards 700+respondents 2500+ assessments to 60 Weak Signals
  31. 31. Wild Cards Delphi Wild Cards headline navigation panel Comments & full preview Description & Desirability Issue Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking Importance for STI policy in Your Country & EUassessment 1- Physical infrastructure Potential 2 - Virtual infrastructure impacts on 3 - Social welfare (in Your Country 4 - Economy platform & the EU) Preparedness 5 - Security 6 - Policy & governance 7 - Environment & ecosystems (iDelphi) ERA relevance 8 - STI systems Policy advice Current signals indicating WI plausibility Future signals indicating WI plausibility Wild Cards headline navigation panel Analysis & Submission panels
  32. 32. CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars AGR Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change CAP Administration rather than results a priority SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security NUC Development of new materials Weak ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world Signals SPA Privatisation of space flights NAN Implantable electronics leaving no trace40% SSH Concerns over socio-economic and humanities research "downgrade" NUC Small-scale nuclear power plant operatingmatch CAP CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars Administration rather than results a priority Top 10 SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security Weak ICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform Signals ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world for ICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications AGR Bees be no more, less food than before UK ENV ENV Growing environmental legal class actions on no-win no-fee basis Emergence of secondary carbon financial vehicles HEA Increasing Self-Medication
  33. 33. Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures Social welfare Economy Security Policy & governance Environment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems Suicide bombing in Stockholm Sec Pol SoW 100%Ph-I Env 75% Sec 50% No strict global rules Growing privatisation Sec Pol Eco on nuclear security 25% of war 0% Scientists predict Nuclear power plants mobile phone viruses Sec STI Vi-I Eco Sec built in third world Eco will become a serious countries threat
  34. 34. We promote knowledge transfer and dissemination of key resultsNational Expert Policy ERAStudies Interviews Alerts Toolkit
  35. 35. From farmer to consumer: Diversifying cropproduction and consumption.Overreliance on a few core crops (e.g. wheat)makes food production and consumptionvulnerable to any type of disruption. Were a newwheat disease to develop it could have severeimplications for food markets worldwide, whichcould have unforeseen consequences such asstarvation, civil unrest and high food prices.There is a need to prepare for diversifying foodproduction and consumption in order to avoidsuch consequences. Farmers need to be assistedin order to better diversify their crops andconsumers should be made aware of a greatervariety of food products…
  36. 36. New Horizon Scanning Systemdelivering products & serviceswhich meet the needs of seniorleaders and workforce plannersin health & social care in the UK Research Technology Development Networked Innovation
  37. 37. Foresight: Exploring the Future, Shaping the Present A course for sponsors and practitioners of foresight 25th June - 29th June 2012  The course is aimed at:  Course directors  sponsors of foresight projects  Prof Ian Miles  foresight practitioners  Dr Rafael Popper  entrepreneurs  Dr OzcanSaritas  senior managers  company directors  Course fee  The full residential fee is £1,950 per person fee includes all the course materials, accommodation for five nights (June 26th to June 30th inclusive) and all meals.  Discount for early bookings and Colombian nationals  This year we are offering a discount to participants whose application is received before 16th April. For applications received by this date the course fee will be reduced to £1,800 GBP. Colombian nationals will receive the same discount for registrations before 22nd May.  Registration  Please use the downloadable registration form and return it to Lisa Gledhill by fax to +44 161-275-0923 or email