This document discusses using system dynamics models derived from intentional models to simulate strategic alternatives for enterprises. Intentional models capture why and how enterprises operate but are static, while system dynamics models are useful for simulation but at a higher level of abstraction. The authors propose a method to transform intentional models into initial system dynamics models by mapping intentional elements like actors, tasks and goals to system dynamics stocks, flows and converters. Relationships between intentional elements would be realized as different types of links between system dynamics elements. This would generate initial structural system dynamics models of strategic alternatives for further simulation analysis. However, more work is needed to incorporate simulation equations that reflect the semantics and key variances between alternatives.

1. Toward Structured Simulation of
What-If Analyses for Enterprises
Sagar Sunkle, Suman Roychoudhury,
Hemant Rathod, and Vinay Kulkarni
Tata Research Development and Design Center,
Pune, India.

2. Motivation
• Intentional Models-
– Prescriptive; capture why enterprises do what they are doing and
how they are doing it
– Static; early efforts at simulation, but scalability remains an issue
• System Dynamics (SD) Models-
– Useful for analysis of aggregates-
– Pertinent to intentional models at higher level of abstraction to evaluate
alternate courses of action to achieve strategic goals
• Use case- Business Transformation due to Change Drivers
– Simulation models derived from intentional models could be used to
study planned courses of action before committing to one
– Intentional models could be large; difficult to obtain simulation models
by hand

3. Intentional Models
Intentional Metamodel
• Actors carry out behavior (tasks) to achieve goals
– In doing so, actors depend on each other and use resources
• (Hard) goals may be achieved with qualitative
aspects/properties pertaining to tasks- these are (soft) goals
• Individually, tasks, resources, and (hard/soft) goals are always
with respect to an actor

4. System Dynamics Models
InFlow
OutFlow
Stock
Feedback
Adapted From:http://www.naturalthinker.net/
• Stocks, flows and converters [variables/feedback] are the
key concepts
– Flows add up to or remove from stocks
– Converters affect the flows
– Stocks, flows, and converters can be grouped into modules

5. Intentional and SD Concepts
Intentional
Elements
SD Elements Both Signify
Actors Modules Active nature; often contain or control
rest of the entities
Tasks Converters and
Flows
Behavior
Resources
(Hard/Soft) Goals
Stocks Passive nature; State; both change based
on [intentional or causal] relations with
other entities; in case of goals,
satisfaction level changes
• Intentional tasks could be realized as SD converters
or flows
- Which is more apt? Converters cannot directly influence behavior of the
stocks; esp. if a task was means to a hard goal, utilized a resource, or
contributed to soft goal, it must be a flow rather than a converter
• Requires elaborating relations between SD elements

6. SD Metamodel

7. Context-based Transformation
• There is no SD metamodel that describes SD concepts by specializing
relations between SD elements
• Relations between SD elements are represented by generic LINK
concept- There are four different kinds of links namely, a FlowLink,
StockLink, ModuleLink and ConverterLink
• The sub-link types help in capturing intentional element contexts
– Based on it, decomposition relation between a task into another task from
intentional models can be realized as any one of FlowFlow, ConverterFlow,
FlowConverter, ConverterConverter links
Task Relation Goal Task realized as
Task
AND
(Hard/Soft) Goal Flow
(Parent)
Decomposition
Task
(Child)
OR Mean-End (Hard) Goal Flow
Task Contribution (Soft) Goal Flow
A task that does not relate to (Hard or Soft) goal [for instance, it is an
intermediate child task of another task] is realized as a Converter

8. SD Models of Strategic Alternatives
Create SD models for alternatives by
following OR links between Means
(Tasks) and Ends (Goals) and building
upon SD model created till that point

9. Simulating Strategic Alternatives
Positive contribution in Alternative 1 by task A to softgoal leads to
reaching desired level of satisfaction of the hard goal A earlier
Alternative 1 Alternative 2

10. Validation?
• Merits
– First cut structural SD models can be quickly obtained
– Given this SD model, simulation expert needs to discuss with
domain experts in terms of how stocks and flows in this model
change with respect to their original counterparts
– Context-based transformation based on metamodel relations
enables traceability, but-
• Only small intentional models transformed to SD
equivalents
• Intentional Models may contain types and instances- such
as a role and actors of that role type. In SD, they will be
available at the same level of abstraction
– Standard SD does not have types and instances for stocks and flows

11. Yet to Do
• Only structural transformation; no support for simulation
equations
– The semantics of label propagation from intentional models should
reflect in the ways SD elements affect each other
– Key points of variance between strategic alternatives should reflect
prominently in the SD simulation

12. Question?
You can reach me at sagar.sunkle@tcs.com