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Toward a general measure of landscape
connectivity for climate change
Jennifer Costanza
Curtis Belyea, James Watling, Ron Sutherland, Nick Haddad
Biological Conservation 142 (2009) 14-32
Increasing connectivity consistently ranks as the
most popular strategy for climate change
2009, Biological Conservation
Big, bold plans for landscape
connectivity are emerging
Theobald et al. 2012 Conserv.Lett.WA Connected Landscapes Project
Courtesy of Ron SutherlandFrom the Wildlands Network
Connectivity planning in the Southeast
Black bear
(Ursus americanus)
Rafinesque’s big-eared bat
(Corynorhinus rafinesquii)
Timber rattlesnake
(Crotalus horridus)
Approach: connectivity for multiple species
Research questions
• Where are the most and least threatened connections
for each species?
• Do species vary in the climate change threat to their
connectivity?
Alternative resistance surfaces
Niche model Empirical (literature)
Red High resistance
Blue Low resistance
Expert opinion
(surveys)
Black bear
Mapping connectivity
Resistance surface Habitat nodes Connections
Linkage Mapper software: least-cost paths between nodes
Future threat is change in suitability
Black bear
percent change in suitability
recent to 2050, A2 scenario
Red Decrease
Blue Increase
Red Large decrease
Orange Moderate decrease
Blue Increase
Black bear
niche resistance, Linkage Mapper
Change in habitat suitability
BatSnake Bear
Changes in suitability by ecoregion
Red = largest decrease
Blue = increase
Which links connect to important nodes?
Change in Integral Index of Connectivity for nodes
(Pascual-Hortal and Saura 2006)
Dark blue =
10% most
important
nodes
Black bear
Where are the important links that are most
and least threatened?
BatSnake Bear
Red = 10% most threat
Blue = 10% least threat
Summary
• We mapped climate change threat to habitat connections for
three species in the Southeast
• On average, suitability decreased within mapped
connections, and species were similar in average amount of
climate change threat
• The geography of climate change threat varied by species
• We are doing parallel work to examine effects of future land
use change on connections

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Toward a general measure of landscape connectivity for climate change

  • 1. Toward a general measure of landscape connectivity for climate change Jennifer Costanza Curtis Belyea, James Watling, Ron Sutherland, Nick Haddad
  • 2. Biological Conservation 142 (2009) 14-32 Increasing connectivity consistently ranks as the most popular strategy for climate change 2009, Biological Conservation
  • 3. Big, bold plans for landscape connectivity are emerging Theobald et al. 2012 Conserv.Lett.WA Connected Landscapes Project
  • 4. Courtesy of Ron SutherlandFrom the Wildlands Network Connectivity planning in the Southeast
  • 5. Black bear (Ursus americanus) Rafinesque’s big-eared bat (Corynorhinus rafinesquii) Timber rattlesnake (Crotalus horridus) Approach: connectivity for multiple species
  • 6. Research questions • Where are the most and least threatened connections for each species? • Do species vary in the climate change threat to their connectivity?
  • 7. Alternative resistance surfaces Niche model Empirical (literature) Red High resistance Blue Low resistance Expert opinion (surveys) Black bear
  • 8. Mapping connectivity Resistance surface Habitat nodes Connections Linkage Mapper software: least-cost paths between nodes
  • 9. Future threat is change in suitability Black bear percent change in suitability recent to 2050, A2 scenario Red Decrease Blue Increase
  • 10. Red Large decrease Orange Moderate decrease Blue Increase Black bear niche resistance, Linkage Mapper Change in habitat suitability
  • 11.
  • 12. BatSnake Bear Changes in suitability by ecoregion Red = largest decrease Blue = increase
  • 13. Which links connect to important nodes? Change in Integral Index of Connectivity for nodes (Pascual-Hortal and Saura 2006) Dark blue = 10% most important nodes Black bear
  • 14. Where are the important links that are most and least threatened? BatSnake Bear Red = 10% most threat Blue = 10% least threat
  • 15. Summary • We mapped climate change threat to habitat connections for three species in the Southeast • On average, suitability decreased within mapped connections, and species were similar in average amount of climate change threat • The geography of climate change threat varied by species • We are doing parallel work to examine effects of future land use change on connections