This document outlines a proposal for a thesis project to conduct integrated large-scale modeling and analysis of the Turkish energy system. It begins by explaining that keeping global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius is important to avoid worst impacts of climate change. It then provides background on Turkey's growing carbon emissions over time. The remainder of the document discusses different modeling approaches researchers have used, including top-down macroeconomic models and bottom-up engineering models, as well as hybrid approaches. It provides examples of specific models and explains how models like TIMES and TIMES-MACRO work to minimize energy system costs while meeting demand and policy constraints. The goal of the proposal is to use an integrated modeling framework to analyze Turkey's energy system and policy options

1. ENERGY, ECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENT INTEGRATED LARGE SCALE
MODELING AND ANALYSIS
OF
!
“THE TURKISH ENERGY SYSTEM”
Thesis Proposal

2. Why?
What?
How?
When?
Presentation Agenda

3. Why?

5. 2

6. 2degrees
Celsius
is
the maximum
amount of
the temperature
increase

8. 2degrees
Celsius
is
the maximum
amount of
the temperature
increase

10. Turkey’s performance on emissions
Total CO2 Emissions from the Consumption of Energy (Million Metric Tons) (Turkey)
0
75
150
225
300
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
263,54
257,03
272,9
280,19
250,96
230,9
210,47
206,03
194,53
184,18
201,93
181,61184,13182,28
169,11
153,19
139,95
144,58
138,06137,29
129,48
119,96
103,46
109,7105,7
93,11
8278
73
63
69

11. What?

12. What?
Researchers do up to now

13. Top Down
Bottom Up

14. Market equilibrium approach Optimization approach
Higher sectoral aggregation Better engineering / technology
description
Endogenous representation of
most macroeconomic
parameters like prices and
demand elasticities
Better for policy analysis involving
impact assessment of technology
and fuel mix within a sector
Top Down
Bottom Up

15. Top Down
Bottom Up
Top-down models evaluate the system from aggregate economic variables,
whereas bottom-up models consider technological options or project-specific
climate change mitigation policies (IPCC)
!
!
!
!
The bottom-up
models capture technology in the engineering sense: a given technique
related to energy consumption or supply, with a given technical performance
and cost.
!
!

16. Top-Down Models
IAM
Econometric
Equilibrium
IO

17. Top-Down Models
IAM Econometric
Equilibrium
IO
Input-Output models are applied to investigate direct and indirect economic and sectoral
effects of the demand driven policies.
!
They show the process by which inputs in one industry sector produce outputs for
consumption or for input into another industry
!
The major limits of IO models are that they can only be used on a national level; in the original
format IO models do not cover substitution and feedback effects and neglect inter-sectoral
substitution effects (Rosenbluth, 1968)
MIS ( Macroeconomic Information System)
MEPA (Massaschusetts Economic Policy Analysis)

18. Top-Down Models
IAM
Econometric
Equilibrium
IO
Econometric models correlate the energy demand with other macro-economic
variables.
Econometric models are comprised of econometrically estimated equations that
do not consider equilibrium assumptions.
!
Models of this kind include economic structure in detailed way (Löschel, 2002).
POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long Term Energy Systems)
QUEST (A Macro-economic model for EU Countries)

19. IO
Top-Down Modelsnometric
Equilibrium
IAM
An integrated assessment (IA) model is defined as a combination of
scientific and socioeconomic aspects of climate change (Bernstein et al.,
1997)
!
IA models miss the links between economic growth and population
growth and advances in technology. In most of the IAM, it is not clear
why some aspects of climate change are included and others not.
DICE (Dynamic Integrated Climate Change)
MERGE (An Integrated Assessment Model for Global Climate Change)
CETA (A Model for Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment)
GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model)
IMAGE (ntegrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect)

20. nometric
IO
Top-Down ModelsEquilibriumIAM
!
General equilibrium models enable studying price-dependent interactions
between the energy system and the rest of the economy (Löschel, 2002).
!
Each sector is represented by a production function, which is designed to
simulate the potential substitutions between the main factors of production
!
!
!
!
!
GREEN (A Global Model for Quantifying The Costs of Policies to Curb CO2 Emissions)
GEM-E3 (Computable General Equilibrium model for Studying Economy-Energy-Environment Interactions)
SGM (Second Generation Model)
HERMES (Harmonized Econometric Research for Modeling Economic Systems)
GTAP-E (GlobalTrade Analysis Project - Energy)

21. nometric
IO
AGE vs CGE
EquilibriumIAM
The existence of equilibrium is gathered via the standard Arrow–Debreu
exposition, then solve for market clearing price vector by means of Scarf’s
Algorithm.
!
On the other hand CGE models consist of macro balancing equations,
and unknowns solvable as simultaneous equations (Smale, 1981).

22. Bottom Up
Bottom-up models represent the energy system with a technology rich
description and put the emphasis on the correct description of energy
sources and technologies
!
Such models often neglect the macroeconomic impacts of energy
policies.
EFOM (Energy Flow Optimization Model)
MARKAL (Market Allocation Model)
MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Systems and Their General Environment)
MIDAS (Multinational Integrated Demand and Supply Model)

23. Bottom-up Models
Simulation
Accounting
Optimization

24. Bottom-up Models
imulation
imization
Accounting
Accounting models describe the physical flows of energy.
!
Models that belong to this class, rather than simulate the behavior of a
system in which outcomes are unknown, require modelers to determine
outcomes beforehand (Mundaca and Neij, 2010).
NIA (National Impact Analysis)
LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System Model)!
BUENAS (Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System)

25. Simulation
Bottom-up Models
timization
Accounting
Simulation models provide a descriptive quantitative illustration of energy
production and consumption based on exogenously determined scenarios
(Mundaja, Neij, 2012)
!
These models are used to represent observed and expected microeconomic
behavior that is not related to an optimal or rational pattern.
!
They simulate the behavior of consumers and producers under various conditions.
!
REEPS (Residential End-Use Energy Planning System)
!
MURE (Mesures d‘Utilisation Rationnelle de l’Energie)
!
NEMS-RSDM (National Energy Modelling System - Residential
Sector Demand Module)

26. Bottom-up Models
Accounting
imulation
Optimization
The system cost is minimized, or welfare maximized (if the
model is a partial equilibrium model the consumer and
producer surplus is typically maximized)
!
!
Underlying assumption of optimization methodologies is that
all acting agents behave optimal under given constraints

27. Hybrid
These groups of models combine technological explicitness of bottom-up
models with the economic comprehensiveness of top-down models
TIMES-MACRO, MARKAL-MACRO, CIMS, NEMS!
ENVEES, ETA-MACRO, HERMES-MIDAS, SCREEN, MESSAGE-MACRO!

28. How?

29. How?
to conduct a model

30. TIMES
TIMES is a dynamic, bottom-up, large-scale, linear optimization
modeling framework for energy systems
!
It is designed to be deployed on a multi-period horizon to
minimize the total discounted energy system cost.
!
Quantities and prices of various fuels and other necessary
commodities of the energy sector come to equilibrium in each
period
!
TIMES also considers new technologies that will be available in
the future

31. Reference case projections of end-use energy service demands (e.g.,
residential lighting, steel production and the like) are provided
by the user for each region.
!
The user provides estimates of the existing stock of energy related
equipment in all sectors in the base year, and the characteristics of
available future technologies, future sources of primary energy supply
and their potentials.
TIMES

32. Using these as inputs, the model aims to supply energy services at
minimum global cost by simultaneously making decisions on
equipment investment, equipment operation, primary energy supply,
and energy trade.
TIMES

33. TIMES
MACRO
ignore the
interdependencies
of the energy
sector with the
remaining economy
MACRO depict the economic relationships of the entire
economy, enable one to study the interconnections
between economic development and energy demand.
Since this is done
on a more
aggregate
level, detailed
technology related
information cannot
be derived from
top-down models
TIMES describe the energy sector in technology-rich
way

34. TIMES-MACRO
TIMES MACRO
Energy Demand
Energy Costs
Labor
Consumption
Investment
Capital
Concept of the linkage for a single-region TIMES-MACRO model

35. When?

37. Thanks…