Key economic indicators in America’s residential real estate market, including mortgage origination volume, housing supply, credit availability and real estate pricing trends.
Update on National Commercial Real Estate Markets
"Commercial real estate sales transactions
picked up in the fourth quarter, but full –year
transactions were 32% below last year’s level." - NAR
In a time of high uncertainty 2 sectors stood out, Apartments and Industrial Real Estate.
Economic conditions always impact demand, construction, absorption rates, availability and vacancy rates.
These are major considerations for those looking to:
- Purchase commercial property for their business
- Those looking to obtain a commercial real estate loan
- Investors looking to find stable investment assets
- Landlords trying to determine lease concessions
- Tenants decisions on lease terms and options to renew negotiations
TRREB reported 4,581 home sales in January 2020 – up by 15.4 per cent compared to January 2019 and up by 4.8 per cent compared to December 2019.
“Steady population growth, low unemployment and low borrowing costs continued to underpin substantial competition between buyers in all major market segments,” said TRREB President Michael Collins.
The average selling price in January was up by 12.3 per cent, driven by the detached houses & condominium apartments.
Update on National Commercial Real Estate Markets
"Commercial real estate sales transactions
picked up in the fourth quarter, but full –year
transactions were 32% below last year’s level." - NAR
In a time of high uncertainty 2 sectors stood out, Apartments and Industrial Real Estate.
Economic conditions always impact demand, construction, absorption rates, availability and vacancy rates.
These are major considerations for those looking to:
- Purchase commercial property for their business
- Those looking to obtain a commercial real estate loan
- Investors looking to find stable investment assets
- Landlords trying to determine lease concessions
- Tenants decisions on lease terms and options to renew negotiations
TRREB reported 4,581 home sales in January 2020 – up by 15.4 per cent compared to January 2019 and up by 4.8 per cent compared to December 2019.
“Steady population growth, low unemployment and low borrowing costs continued to underpin substantial competition between buyers in all major market segments,” said TRREB President Michael Collins.
The average selling price in January was up by 12.3 per cent, driven by the detached houses & condominium apartments.
Arbor Small Multifamily Report Q1 2020Ivan Kaufman
The nation’s rental market has a total of 41.9 million renter-occupied housing units as of 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest American Community Survey. Small multifamily, which includes apartment properties of 5 to 49 units, represented 33% (13.7 million units) of the total rental market.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | January 2018 | Credit Quality at a CrossroadsMercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
HouseCanary President, JP Ackerman presented to 100+ leaders from the 55+ Council at the Southern California Home Builder's Association on January 15th, 2015. The discussion was focused on Winning With the 55+ Age Segment, and contained insights on the 55+ growth opportunity and ways to operationalize at local level to maximize growth.
U.S. National Housing Market Update - January 2020Scott Rodgers
Slide deck showing residential real estate housing market data. This is for the United States housing market and was created in January 2020. I also publish a local Denver real estate market update blog post on my website. Please do not hesitate to reach out if you have any questions or comments, or are interested in buying or selling Denver real estate - http://www.ThePeak.com
Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. Ivan Kaufman
The growing acceptability and adoption of work-from-home setups are framing housing decisions across the board, boosting demand for exurban housing options. However, as many of the accommodative features in the CARES act expire, the likelihood of increased tenant performance issues in the coming months remain high. All else equal, while the single-family rental sector will continue to work some COVID-related performance issues, it is as well insulated as any residential product type over the medium term.
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1Ivan Kaufman
Unsurprisingly, COVID-19 is the unavoidable and overarching theme across all areas of commercial real estate - the singe family rental (SFR) sector is no exception.
The Wright Report is perfect bathroom reading to help understand local real estate. Well, maybe for some. This is a very detailed report to unpack the housing market in Northern California as well as other national economic influences. What is making value move? And where have values been moving? Compiled by Real Estate Broker Joel Wright (and yours truly contributed a couple pages). Counties covered include: Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado & San Joaquin.
Please also find attached our Real Estate Supplement. In it you will read about how issuance of bonds backed by commercial properties is on track to beat last year's supply and yield premiums for bonds backed by commercial property loans have narrowed. Also, Jefferies CMBS veteran Lisa Pendergast says she expects CMBS spreads to narrow by year end, while Fannie Mae economists Douglas Duncan and Patrick Simmons argue that a slowdown in the growth of the labor force suggests more modest prospects for the demand for new housing and construction. Emile J. Brinkmann, the chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, probes how state regulations will affect the pace of foreclosures and delinquencies. Nicolas Retsinas of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing has some advice for lawmakers on GSE reform and Donald Trump offers a characteristically confident view that the recovery in real estate. If you have any comments or feedback for future real estate issues please contact arozens@bloomberg.net.
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said, “Although housing values were generally slightly positive over the month, the trend has clearly weakened since mid-to-late March, when social distancing policies were implemented and consumer sentiment started to plummet.”
The capital city markets generally showed a weaker performance relative to the regional markets, with the combined capital cities index up 0.2% in April compared with a 0.5% rise across the combined regional markets.
Thomvest Ventures Research's 2023 Housing Market Health Check analyzes shifting dynamics impacting supply, demand, affordability, mortgage activity and loan performance. Key takeaways: plunging affordability threatening homebuyers, construction lagging enduring demand, forecasted sales rebound after significant 2023 declines, and delinquencies remaining near historic lows despite uncertainty. The report offers insight into the market's sharp cooldown while providing an optimistic long view.
The Thomvest Housing Report includes data through Q3 2022 and attempts to provide helpful KPIs related to the overall health of the U.S. residential real estate market in 2022, as well as a discussion of how real estate technology companies are adapting in this environment.
The median price of existing home sales is up 38% since March 2020. Mortgage rates are up over 3 percentage points in the past eight months, the first time we have seen anything like that since 1980/81. The combination of the two has caused affordability to deteriorate faster than at any point in our time series.
Arbor Small Multifamily Report Q1 2020Ivan Kaufman
The nation’s rental market has a total of 41.9 million renter-occupied housing units as of 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest American Community Survey. Small multifamily, which includes apartment properties of 5 to 49 units, represented 33% (13.7 million units) of the total rental market.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | January 2018 | Credit Quality at a CrossroadsMercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
HouseCanary President, JP Ackerman presented to 100+ leaders from the 55+ Council at the Southern California Home Builder's Association on January 15th, 2015. The discussion was focused on Winning With the 55+ Age Segment, and contained insights on the 55+ growth opportunity and ways to operationalize at local level to maximize growth.
U.S. National Housing Market Update - January 2020Scott Rodgers
Slide deck showing residential real estate housing market data. This is for the United States housing market and was created in January 2020. I also publish a local Denver real estate market update blog post on my website. Please do not hesitate to reach out if you have any questions or comments, or are interested in buying or selling Denver real estate - http://www.ThePeak.com
Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. Ivan Kaufman
The growing acceptability and adoption of work-from-home setups are framing housing decisions across the board, boosting demand for exurban housing options. However, as many of the accommodative features in the CARES act expire, the likelihood of increased tenant performance issues in the coming months remain high. All else equal, while the single-family rental sector will continue to work some COVID-related performance issues, it is as well insulated as any residential product type over the medium term.
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1Ivan Kaufman
Unsurprisingly, COVID-19 is the unavoidable and overarching theme across all areas of commercial real estate - the singe family rental (SFR) sector is no exception.
The Wright Report is perfect bathroom reading to help understand local real estate. Well, maybe for some. This is a very detailed report to unpack the housing market in Northern California as well as other national economic influences. What is making value move? And where have values been moving? Compiled by Real Estate Broker Joel Wright (and yours truly contributed a couple pages). Counties covered include: Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado & San Joaquin.
Please also find attached our Real Estate Supplement. In it you will read about how issuance of bonds backed by commercial properties is on track to beat last year's supply and yield premiums for bonds backed by commercial property loans have narrowed. Also, Jefferies CMBS veteran Lisa Pendergast says she expects CMBS spreads to narrow by year end, while Fannie Mae economists Douglas Duncan and Patrick Simmons argue that a slowdown in the growth of the labor force suggests more modest prospects for the demand for new housing and construction. Emile J. Brinkmann, the chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, probes how state regulations will affect the pace of foreclosures and delinquencies. Nicolas Retsinas of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing has some advice for lawmakers on GSE reform and Donald Trump offers a characteristically confident view that the recovery in real estate. If you have any comments or feedback for future real estate issues please contact arozens@bloomberg.net.
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said, “Although housing values were generally slightly positive over the month, the trend has clearly weakened since mid-to-late March, when social distancing policies were implemented and consumer sentiment started to plummet.”
The capital city markets generally showed a weaker performance relative to the regional markets, with the combined capital cities index up 0.2% in April compared with a 0.5% rise across the combined regional markets.
Thomvest Ventures Research's 2023 Housing Market Health Check analyzes shifting dynamics impacting supply, demand, affordability, mortgage activity and loan performance. Key takeaways: plunging affordability threatening homebuyers, construction lagging enduring demand, forecasted sales rebound after significant 2023 declines, and delinquencies remaining near historic lows despite uncertainty. The report offers insight into the market's sharp cooldown while providing an optimistic long view.
The Thomvest Housing Report includes data through Q3 2022 and attempts to provide helpful KPIs related to the overall health of the U.S. residential real estate market in 2022, as well as a discussion of how real estate technology companies are adapting in this environment.
The median price of existing home sales is up 38% since March 2020. Mortgage rates are up over 3 percentage points in the past eight months, the first time we have seen anything like that since 1980/81. The combination of the two has caused affordability to deteriorate faster than at any point in our time series.
Residential Housing Market Outlook - NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence YunWRAR
Housing Market Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings
Washington, D.C.
May 12, 2011
CannonDesign’s Cost Estimating team offers clients an in-depth understanding of initial construction cost, life cycle cost, schedule and construction delivery strategies to complement the firm’s design talent.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2014Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Auto Dealer Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2014Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Auto Dealer Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Quarterly Market Review National & Regional real estate review for Q4 2022 from partner economist with MLSListings “The MLSListings area is disproportionately tied to the tech sector, and after booming for several years in tandem with the stock market, is returning to more sustainable levels. I do not foresee any prolonged decline
in MLSListings area home prices on the horizon and expect that year-over-year price declines will be roughly 15% of their peak. Further, I anticipate that the market will pick up again in late 2023 as the Fed prepares to lower interest rates.”
Similar to U.S. Housing Market Overview, September 2021 (20)
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The SVN® organization shares a portion of their new weekly listings via their SVN Live® Weekly Property Broadcast. Visit https://svn.com/svn-live/ if you would like to attend our weekly call, which we open up to the brokerage community.
Need MCA leads? No sweat! MCAs are great for small biz funding. Learn how to snag top-notch leads: businesses needing cash, with repayment ability, decision-makers, and accurate contacts. Use content, social ads, lead platforms, partnerships, and capture processes for quality leads.
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One FNG by Group 108 Sector 142 Noida Construction UpdateOne FNG
One FNG by Group 108 is launching a new commercial project in Sector 142 Noida. Office space and high street retail shops on the FNG and Noida Expressway. For more information visit the website https://www.onefng.com/
Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024: Focus o...Joseph Lewis Aguirre
Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024: Focus on Public Safety as Job #1, Engagement, Wealth of HOA, Branding, Communication, Culture, Civic Responsibility
Rixos Tersane Istanbul Residences Brochure_May2024_ENG.pdfListing Turkey
Tersane Suites Residences is a luxurious real estate project located in the heart of Istanbul, next to the beautiful Golden Horn. This unique development offers hotel concept residences with Rixos management, making it the perfect choice for both homeowners and investors.
The Tersane Suites Residences offers a wide range of options, from studio apartments to spacious four-bedroom units, all designed to the highest standard. The suites are finished with high-quality materials and feature modern, open-plan living spaces, fully-equipped kitchens, and large balconies with stunning views of the city and sea.
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The Tersane Suites Residences also offers a great opportunity for investors, as it provides a rental guarantee program. This means that investors can enjoy a steady income stream, with the peace of mind that their property is being managed by a reputable and experienced team.
The location of Tersane Suites Residences is also unbeatable, with easy access to the city’s main transportation links and within close proximity to the historic center, making it the perfect base for exploring all that Istanbul has to offer.
Torun Center Residences Istanbul - Listing TurkeyListing Turkey
THERE IS LIFE IN ITS CENTER!
The most energetic spot of the city that will add utterly different pleasures to your life, with a park that will make Istanbul breathe, delighting indoor and outdoor bistros, cafes, restaurants, the brand-new Food Hall concept, where dozens of unique tastes are served together, market area, cinema, theater, fitness club, SPA and event venue...
All the pleasures that will enrich your lives are awaiting you on the most beautiful side of the city, at Torun Center Residences. In Mecidiyeköy, where the heart of Istanbul beats, business, life and entertainment opportunities are located at the exact center, at Torun Center, the most beautiful side of the city.
Penthouse apartments and different styles of flats from 1 + 1 to 4 + 1, from 100 to 425 square meters in a 42-story residence tower, have been designed for those who want to live in the center of magnificence. Torun Center is the redefinition of a better life with specially landscaped floor gardens, apartment options with private balconies, and automatic glass systems equipped with Trickle Ventilation that offers clean air comfort.
Business and life in the same place
Excellent service
Torun Center has many delightful details, from a swimming pool to sunbathing and resting terrace. With 24/7 concierge services, 24/7 security, valet, technical service, closed-circuit camera system (CCTV), central heating and cooling system, it makes your life easier.
Delightful details
The two-story Torun Center Lounge, with its indoor and outdoor seating areas, children's playroom, private dining and TV lounge, promises unforgettable memories to you and your loved ones with its unique Istanbul view.
Neighboring to the most pleasant square of Istanbul
A few steps from the Torun Center Residences, you can reach the city's most modern city square and open the doors of a quality city life. Torun Center Residences brings together on the same project the long-awaited city life for Istanbul and gourmet restaurants, cafes, gym and SPA, and state-of-the-art cinema and Artı Stage, hosting the most famous plays of the season.
Located at the intersection of alternative public transportation options such as the metro and Metrobus, Torun Center comes to the fore as the most accessible office for both sides of Istanbul. With a central location and rich transportation lines, Torun Center offices make life easier for employees and increase productivity.
Lixin Azarmehr, a Los Angeles-based real estate development trailblazer, co-founded JL Real Estate Development (JL RED) in 2015 and serves as its CEO. Her expertise has propelled the firm to specialize in luxury residential and mixed-use commercial projects, with a portfolio that features upscale retail spaces and sophisticated care facilities.
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Experience unmatched luxury at Elegant Evergreen Homes, offering exquisite 2, 3, and 4 BHK apartments in the serene locality of Yelahanka, Bangalore. These meticulously crafted homes blend modern design with timeless elegance, providing a harmonious living environment. Enjoy top-tier amenities and a prime location, making Elegant Evergreen Homes the ideal choice for discerning homeowners.
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Welcome to KA Housing, a distinguished real estate development nestled in the heart of Eyüpsultan, one of Istanbul’s most promising districts.
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1. U.S. Housing Market Health Check
Key economic indicators in America’s residential real estate market
Prepared by Nima Wedlake
September 2021
Thomvest Ventures Research
3. The Schiller home
price index has far
exceeded 2007 levels
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, 1987
-
2021
- Home prices have grown rapidly in the
years following the Great Recession.
- Between 2012 and 2020, home prices
grew 5.8% annually, compared to 8.7%
annual home price appreciation
between 1999 and 2007.
- Between 2020 and 2021, the home
price index grew by 16.4% — a single-
year record.
- Home prices dropped about 35%
between mid-2006 and early 2009 in
the
f
irst nationwide decline since the
Great Depression. They have since
recovered, and are now at more than
120% of their prior peak level in 2007.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
100
150
200
250
300
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
1
226.9
Mar ’06
- The National Home Price Index tracks the purchase price and resale value of single-family homes. It covers the nine major U.S. census divisions.
16.4% CAGR
9.7% CAGR
274.6
May ’21
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today
4. Many markets have
experienced explosive
year-over-year growth
in home values
Year-over-Year Home Price Index Growth, by U.S. Metro (August 2021)
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)
Boise City, ID
Austin, TX
Missoula, MT
Phoenix, AZ
Truckee, CA
Stockton, CA
Spokane, WA
Reno, NV
Salt Lake City, UT
San Diego, CA
Riverside, CA
Colorado Springs, CO
Tampa, FL
Las Vegas, NV
Seattle, WA
Charlotte, NC
Atlanta, GA
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX
San Francisco, CA
10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
18%
21%
21%
22%
23%
23%
26%
27%
27%
27%
28%
28%
30%
31%
32%
32%
35%
45%
46%
- All major U.S. metros experienced
growth in home values, but smaller
metro areas such as Boise, Idaho and
Austin, Texas experienced the most
meaningful growth, driven by
homebuyer demand for more space
and relative value.
- Many credit the rise of remote work as
a key driver of price appreciation in
these markets. Realtor.com Chief
Economist Danielle Hale:
“This past year, we’ve all become more
reliant on technology to work, learn,
and maintain personal connections.
The technology hubs that make this
possible are thriving, as are their
housing markets,”
5. U.S. Mortgage A
ff
ordability (% of Median Income), 1990
-
2020
14.8% in Q4 2020
Historically low
mortgage rates have
improved mortgage
a
ff
ordability
- While home prices have increased,
mortgage costs as a percentage of
household income has actually
declined relative to Great Recession
levels.
- This is due in part to declining
mortgage rates, tightened credit
standards, and wage growth.
- Mortgage costs relative to median
income dropped below 15% in 2020,
driven by declining mortgage rates.
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today
10%
20%
30%
Q
1
1
9
9
0
Q
1
1
9
9
2
Q
1
1
9
9
4
Q
1
1
9
9
6
Q
1
1
9
9
8
Q
1
2
0
0
0
Q
1
2
0
0
2
Q
1
2
0
0
4
Q
1
2
0
0
6
Q
1
2
0
0
8
Q
1
2
0
1
0
Q
1
2
0
1
2
Q
1
2
0
1
4
Q
1
2
0
1
6
Q
1
2
0
1
8
Q
1
2
0
2
0
23.9% in Q3 2006
Source: National Association of Realtors
6. Median Days on Market for Sold Homes, 2012
-
2021
Strong homebuyer
demand is leading to
quick sales — about two
weeks from list to close
- In May 2021, 57% of homes that went
under contract had an accepted o
ff
er
within the
f
irst two weeks on the
market.
- 44% of homes that went under
contract had an accepted o
ff
er within
one week of hitting the market.
Source: Red
f
in
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
7
-
2
0
1
2
0
1
-
2
0
1
3
0
7
-
2
0
1
3
0
1
-
2
0
1
4
J
u
l
2
0
1
4
0
1
-
2
0
1
5
0
7
-
2
0
1
5
0
1
-
2
0
1
6
0
7
-
2
0
1
6
0
1
-
2
0
1
7
0
7
-
2
0
1
7
0
1
-
2
0
1
8
0
7
-
2
0
1
8
0
1
-
2
0
1
9
0
7
-
2
0
1
9
0
1
-
2
0
2
0
0
7
-
2
0
2
0
0
1
-
2
0
2
1
0
7
-
2
0
2
1
97 Days in Feb ‘12
15 Days in July ‘21
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today
7. For Sale Housing Inventory (in Millions) by Month, 2012
-
2021
Homes available for
sale are at multi-year
lows, exacerbating
housing supply issues
- The number of homes for sale in the
U.S. reached a multi-decade low in
2021, driven by the rapid pace of
existing home sales combined with
the limited inventory of newly
constructed homes.
- Active listings (the number of homes
listed for sale at any point during the
period) fell 49% from the same period
in 2019.
- Some industry analyst expect
inventory to climb heading into 2022,
as many would-be sellers have held o
ff
listing while they remain protected by
foreclosure moratoriums and
forbearance programs.
0.5M
1.0M
1.5M
2.0M
2.5M
0
7
-
2
0
1
2
0
1
-
2
0
1
3
0
7
-
2
0
1
3
0
1
-
2
0
1
4
J
u
l
2
0
1
4
0
1
-
2
0
1
5
0
7
-
2
0
1
5
0
1
-
2
0
1
6
0
7
-
2
0
1
6
0
1
-
2
0
1
7
0
7
-
2
0
1
7
0
1
-
2
0
1
8
0
7
-
2
0
1
8
0
1
-
2
0
1
9
0
7
-
2
0
1
9
0
1
-
2
0
2
0
0
7
-
2
0
2
0
0
1
-
2
0
2
1
0
7
-
2
0
2
1
2.16M Listings in May ‘12
Source: Red
f
in
820K Listings in July ‘21
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today
8. Average Sale Price-to-List Price Ratio for Sold Homes, 2012
-
2021
In 2021, homes are
selling for more than
their list price, signaling
strong buyer demand
- The average sale-to-list price ratio,
which measures how close homes are
selling to their asking prices, reached
a record high 102.5% in 2021, signaling
the competitive nature of today’s
housing market.
- 50% of homes sold above list price, up
from 33% a year earlier. This measure
has been falling since the four-week
period ending July 11, when it peaked
at 55%.
Source: Red
f
in
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
101%
102%
103%
104%
105%
0
7
-
2
0
1
2
0
1
-
2
0
1
3
0
7
-
2
0
1
3
0
1
-
2
0
1
4
J
u
l
2
0
1
4
0
1
-
2
0
1
5
0
7
-
2
0
1
5
0
1
-
2
0
1
6
0
7
-
2
0
1
6
0
1
-
2
0
1
7
0
7
-
2
0
1
7
0
1
-
2
0
1
8
0
7
-
2
0
1
8
0
1
-
2
0
1
9
0
7
-
2
0
1
9
0
1
-
2
0
2
0
0
7
-
2
0
2
0
0
1
-
2
0
2
1
0
7
-
2
0
2
1
96% in Feb ‘12
102.5% in July ‘21
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today
9. 600
1,200
1,800
2,400
3,000
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
2
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
8
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
8
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
8
2
0
2
0
Annual U.S. Housing Construction Starts (in Thousands of Units), 1980
-
2021
New construction
starts have yet to
recover following the
Great Recession
- Lack of new housing supply is a major
contributor to home price
appreciation — housing completions
have trailed household growth in
every year since following the Great
Recession.
- Some 12.3 million American
households were formed from January
2012 to June 2021, but just 7 million
new single-family homes were built
during that time.
- Supply chain issues caused by the
pandemic have also impacted the
pace of construction, according to
Pulte CEO Ryan Marshall:
“Shortages for a variety of building
products, combined with increased
production volumes across the
homebuilding industry, are directly
impacting our ability to get homes
closed to our level of quality over the
remainder of 2021.”
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
2.1M Starts
2005
1.4M Starts
2020
1.07M
Avg. yearly starts, 2011
-
2020
1.73M
Avg. yearly starts, 2000
-
2007
11. Mortgages rates
dropped to historical
lows in 2020, and
remain below 3%
Average Rate for Conforming 30
-
Year Fixed Rate Mortgage, 1972
-
2021
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1
9
7
2
1
9
7
4
1
9
7
6
1
9
7
8
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
5
1
9
8
7
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
1
- Despite historically high home prices,
home a
ff
ordability is low relative to
historical standards due to a dramatic
decline in mortgage rates.
- For context, every 100 basis point
decrease in mortgage interest rate
increases “buying power” by ~15% —
meaning prospective buyers can
a
ff
ord to purchase more expensive
homes.
2.87% in July 2021
6.57% in August 2007
Source: Freddie Mac
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today
12. Total U.S. Mortgage Debt Balance (in Trillions, USD), 2003
-
2021
$2T
$4T
$6T
$8T
$10T
$12T
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
$10.44T in Q2 2021
$9.29T in Q3 2008
Total outstanding
mortgage debt has
surpassed Great
Recession levels
- While total debt has grown, its growth
rate over the last several years is much
lower (5%) than annual debt growth
seen prior to the Great Recession
(12%).
- Home values have grown more rapidly
in the period following the Great
Recession — the aggregate value all
U.S. owner-occupied homes is more
than $36 trillion.
12% CAGR
5% CAGR
Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today
13. 200
400
600
800
1000
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
Mortgage Credit Availability Index, 2004
-
2021
119.1 in July 2021
Peak of 868.7 in June 2006
Credit availability
dropped at the start of
the pandemic & is well
below pre-GFC highs
- The Mortgage Credit Availability Index
is calculated using several factors
related to borrower eligibility (credit
score, loan type, loan-to-value ratio,
etc.).
- Credit availability spiked during the
Great Recession, and declined sharply
due to regulatory changes, as well as
updates to bank underwriting policies.
- The credit availability index dropped
sharply in March 2020, as a result of
tightening credit standards during the
COVID
-
19 pandemic.
- The recent decline in credit availability
is primarily impacting the jumbo and
non-QM space — jumbo credit
availability experienced a 36.9%
month-over-month decline in
mid-2020.
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today
14. U.S. Mortgage Originations (in Billions, USD), 2003
-
2021
$300B
$600B
$900B
$1,200B
$1,500B
Q
2
2
0
0
3
Q
2
2
0
0
4
Q
2
2
0
0
5
Q
2
2
0
0
6
Q
2
2
0
0
7
Q
2
2
0
0
8
Q
2
2
0
0
9
Q
2
2
0
1
0
Q
2
2
0
1
1
Q
2
2
0
1
2
Q
2
2
0
1
3
Q
2
2
0
1
4
Q
2
2
0
1
5
Q
2
2
0
1
6
Q
2
2
0
1
7
Q
2
2
0
1
8
Q
2
2
0
1
9
Q
2
2
0
2
0
Q
2
2
0
2
1
$1.06T in Q3 2003
Mortgage origination
volume skyrocketed in
2020 due to record-
low interest rates
- Mortgage originations spiked in the
years preceding the Great Recession,
driven by relaxed credit standards and
an active housing market.
- In Q2 2021, origination volume
reached a record level of $1.22T,
surpassing volumes seen prior to the
Great Recession.
Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
$1.22T in Q2 2021
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today
16. Quarterly U.S. Cash-Out Re
f
inance Volume (in Billions, USD), 1994
-
2021
$20B
$40B
$60B
$80B
$100B
Q
1
1
9
9
4
Q
1
1
9
9
5
Q
1
1
9
9
6
Q
1
1
9
9
7
Q
1
1
9
9
8
Q
1
1
9
9
9
Q
1
2
0
0
0
Q
1
2
0
0
1
Q
1
2
0
0
2
Q
1
2
0
0
3
Q
1
2
0
0
4
Q
1
2
0
0
5
Q
1
2
0
0
6
Q
1
2
0
0
7
Q
1
2
0
0
8
Q
1
2
0
0
9
Q
1
2
0
1
0
Q
1
2
0
1
1
Q
1
2
0
1
2
Q
1
2
0
1
3
Q
1
2
0
1
4
Q
1
2
0
1
5
Q
1
2
0
1
6
Q
1
2
0
1
7
Q
1
2
0
1
8
Q
1
2
0
1
9
Q
1
2
0
2
0
Q
2
2
0
2
1
Home Equity Cashed Out
2nd Mortgages/HELOC Consolidation
Cash-out re
f
inancings
have increased to
more than $75B in
quarterly volume
- Home equity withdrawal amounts
ballooned between 2005 and 2007 to
more than $80 billion per quarter.
- Origination volume has spiked again in
the last 2 years, driven by the low
interest rate environment and
economic impact of COVID
-
19 on
many households.
Source: Freddie Mac
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today
17. Tappable Equity of U.S. Mortgage Holders (in Trillions USD), 2004
-
2021
$2T
$4T
$6T
$8T
$10T
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
H
1
2
0
2
1
$2.2T in 2011
Aggregate home
equity in excess of
mortgage balances
reached $9.2T in 2021
- “Tappable Equity” is the equity
available on all residential properties
with an existing mortgage, before
reaching a current CLTV of 80%.
- Tappable equity reached an all-time
high of $9.2 trillion in 2021.
- The average owner with tappable
equity has $170,000 available to
borrow against.
- Housing equity as a share of
aggregate home values grew from
36.7% in 2009 to 60.4% in 2020,
according to the Urban Institute.
$9.2T in 2021
Source: Black Knight
18. Number of U.S. Mortgage and Home Equity Accounts (in Millions), 2003
-
2021
20M
40M
60M
80M
100M
120M
Q
2
2
0
0
3
Q
2
2
0
0
4
Q
2
2
0
0
5
Q
2
2
0
0
6
Q
2
2
0
0
7
Q
2
2
0
0
8
Q
2
2
0
0
9
Q
2
2
0
1
0
Q
2
2
0
1
1
Q
2
2
0
1
2
Q
2
2
0
1
3
Q
2
2
0
1
4
Q
2
2
0
1
5
Q
2
2
0
1
6
Q
2
2
0
1
7
Q
2
2
0
1
8
Q
2
2
0
1
9
Q
2
2
0
2
0
Q
2
2
0
2
1
Peak of 98.1M accts. in Q1 2008
Peak of 24.2M accts. in Q4 2007
Mortgage
Home Equity
80.8M accts. in Q2 2021
13.1M accts. in Q2 2021
The total number of
active mortgages is
nearly 20 million less
than its 2008 peak
- While total mortgage debt is at a
record high, the aggregate number of
mortgages is low relative to historical
standards.
- Despite the mortgage origination
boom in 2020 and 2021, the total
number of mortgage accounts has
remained
f
lat and the number of
HELOC accounts has declined.
Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
19. New Seriously Delinquent (90+ Days) Balances by Loan Type (% of Balance), 2003
-
2021
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Q
2
2
0
0
3
Q
2
2
0
0
4
Q
2
2
0
0
5
Q
2
2
0
0
6
Q
2
2
0
0
7
Q
2
2
0
0
8
Q
2
2
0
0
9
Q
2
2
0
1
0
Q
2
2
0
1
1
Q
2
2
0
1
2
Q
2
2
0
1
3
Q
2
2
0
1
4
Q
2
2
0
1
5
Q
2
2
0
1
6
Q
2
2
0
1
7
Q
2
2
0
1
8
Q
2
2
0
1
9
Q
2
2
0
2
0
Q
2
2
0
2
1
Mortgage
Home Equity
Delinquency rates for
mortgages and home
equity loans are near
historic lows
- Following the Great Recession,
mortgage delinquency rates have
stayed low by historical standards.
- 30 days or more delinquency rate for
January 2020 was 3.5% — the rate was
the lowest for a January in at least 20
years.
- Mortgage forbearance programs have
suppressed delinquencies by allowing
borrowers impacted by COVID
-
19 to
defer payment for a period of time.
Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today
0.33% in Q2 2021
20. Number of New Foreclosures and Bankruptcies (in Thousands), 2003
-
2021
200
400
600
800
1000
Q
2
2
0
0
3
Q
2
2
0
0
4
Q
2
2
0
0
5
Q
2
2
0
0
6
Q
2
2
0
0
7
Q
2
2
0
0
8
Q
2
2
0
0
9
Q
2
2
0
1
0
Q
2
2
0
1
1
Q
2
2
0
1
2
Q
2
2
0
1
3
Q
2
2
0
1
4
Q
2
2
0
1
5
Q
2
2
0
1
6
Q
2
2
0
1
7
Q
2
2
0
1
8
Q
2
2
0
1
9
Q
2
2
0
2
0
Q
2
2
0
2
1
New Foreclosure New Bankruptcy
The number of U.S.
foreclosures and
bankruptcies is down
meaningfully
- Approximately 71,000 individuals had
a new foreclosure notation added to
their credit reports in Q4 2019,
remaining very low by historical
standards.
Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today
21. U.S. Age Distribution (in Millions), 2020
3.5M
4.0M
4.5M
5.0M
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
4.8M
29 year-olds
4.4M
33 year-olds
An impending boom in
f
irst-time buyers may
drive continued
demand for housing
- The median age of a
f
irst time
homebuyer is 33— there are 4.4
million 33 year-olds in the U.S. vs.
more than 4.8 million 29 year-olds.
- As Americans in their late twenties age
into the home purchase market over
the next 2
-
4 years, we expect a period
of sustained housing demand.
- However, we also expect accelerated
supply of properties over the next
decade as baby boomers transition
out of their homes.
Median Age of First-
Time Homebuyer
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division; Population estimate as of July 2020
23. Indicators of Mortgage Borrower Credit Quality, 2007 vs. 2020
The U.S. housing market
was “healthier” prior to
the pandemic vs. the
period preceding the
Great Recession
- In Q1 2020, homeowners were in
stronger equity positions relative to
2007 — fewer had mortgages (62% vs.
68%) and those that did had a lower
loan-to-value ratio (53.3% vs. 61.8%).
- There were fewer high-risk mortgage
products in 2020 vs 2007, including
60% fewer subprime loans and 75%
fewer adjustable rate mortgages.
- The mortgage payment to income
ratio was lower in 2020 relative to
2007 (20.9% vs. 31.8%)
- The roughly 7.5M homeowners who've
been in a forbearance plan at some
point since the start of the pandemic
represent 15% of all mortgaged
properties
Metric Great Recession
(Entering 2007)
COVID
-
19
(February 2020)
Percent of Homeowners w/ a Mortgage 68.4% 62.9%
Number of Active Mortgages 53.7M 52.9M
Percent of Homeowners w/ Less Than 10% Equity 14.5% 6.6%
Total Market CLTV 57.4% 52.3%
Average Current CLTV 61.8% 53.3%
Average DTI at Origination 34.5 33.5
Average Original Credit Score 708 736
Average Current Credit Score 713 747
Mortgage Delinquency Rate 4.92% 3.28%
Mortgage Payment to Income Ratio 31.8% 20.9%
Number of Active Subprime Loans 5.1M 1.98M
Number of Active ARM Mortgages 12.89M 3.2M
ARM Mortgages Scheduled to Reset w/in 3 Years 4.95M 320K
GNMA/GSE Share 63% 75%
Source: Black Knight & Urban Institute
24. National Delinquency Rate — First Lien Mortgages, 2019
-
2021
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Q
1
2
0
1
9
Q
2
2
0
1
9
Q
3
2
0
1
9
Q
4
2
0
1
9
Q
1
2
0
2
0
Q
2
2
0
2
0
Q
3
2
0
2
0
Q
4
2
0
2
0
Q
1
2
0
2
1
Q
2
2
0
2
1
Q
3
2
0
2
1
3.2% = Record Low DQ Rate
4.5% = Avg. DQ Rate, 2000
-
2005
4.14%
Jul ’21
Delinquency rates have
normalized to historical
averages after spiking
to nearly 8% in 2020
- The national delinquency rate saw a
5% reduction in July, and at 4.14% is
within a single percentage point of its
pre-pandemic level.
- While overall delinquency volumes
continue to edge closer to pre-
pandemic levels, some 1.45 million
borrowers remained 90 or more days
past due – but not yet in foreclosure –
at the end of July.
7.76%
May ’20
Source: Black Knight
25. Breakdown of All Past Due Mortgages (30+ Days) — As of June 2021
Most mortgages that
are 30+ days past due
have entered into
forbearance or loss
mitigation programs
- While more than 1.5 million 30+ day
delinquencies remain during the
COVID
-
19 pandemic, the vast majority
(94%) of those delinquent loans are
either in a forbearance plan or active
loss mitigation with their servicer.
- Two-thirds of borrowers who are 30
days or more past due on their
mortgage have opted into forbearance
programs.
- 17% of delinquent borrowers have not
entered into a forbearance program.
- About half of all mortgages that went
into forbearance programs during the
pandemic are now back to
“performing” status.
Source: McDash Flash, McDash Primary, Black Knight
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Pre-COVID Deliquencies Post-COVID Deliquencies
273,000
296,000
100,000
102,000
195,000
100,000
1,074,000
323,000
Active Forbearance
Active Loss Mitigation
Removed from Forbearance
Never Forbearance