The document discusses the state of the U.S. economy and small business credit environment. It provides data and charts on topics such as the federal budget deficit, GDP growth, employment, inflation, housing market, and small business sentiment. The economy is showing some signs of recovery but growth remains weak, unemployment is high, and small businesses continue to struggle with access to credit.
The document analyzes freight costs and identifies store direct shipments as a major factor. Specifically, store direct shipments of non-toy items like optical drives significantly increase freight costs due to their high average sales price compared to toy items. Actions are recommended to stop shipping non-toy items store direct, ship toy items in 10-packs to lower costs, and change the metric for toy item freight out from a percentage of revenue to a cost per unit.
The document provides an overview of housing and labor market trends, with a focus on national trends and trends specific to Nevada. It summarizes that while the national unemployment rate dipped below 9%, recovery in the labor market remains elusive. The Case-Shiller and FHFA home price indices show continued softness in the national housing market. Nationally, mortgage delinquencies dropped in 2010 but over 4.5 million homes remain in distress. Modifications under HAMP decreased and obtaining permanent modifications remains challenging for borrowers. Many states face severe budget shortfalls. In Nevada, the unemployment rate fell below 14% but remains the highest in the country, and house prices are falling to 2003 levels.
Why has multifamily investment been so hot, especially in D.C.? What are some of the underlying economic and demographic fundamentals driving the multifamily market?
This document summarizes a presentation given by Mark Mulhern, Senior Vice President and CFO of Progress Energy, at a Power & Gas Leaders Conference on September 24, 2008. The presentation discusses Progress Energy's strategy of securing its energy future through significant rate base growth, nuclear expansion projects, and maintaining a supportive regulatory environment. It provides an overview of Progress Energy's utilities in North Carolina and Florida, outlines major capital investment projects, and reviews the company's financial position and objectives to achieve steady earnings growth.
The document provides an investor briefing for Bemis Company. It summarizes Bemis' business profile including its global presence, vertical integration, and key financial metrics. The briefing also outlines Bemis' strategic priorities to optimize its scale, grow in target areas like medical packaging, and accelerate innovation in materials and packaging features. Guidance is given for 2013 with adjusted EPS expected between $2.30 to $2.45 and cash flow from operations above $430 million.
The document provides an overview of Tulare County's economic situation. It discusses how Bill Watkins will provide context on the county's economy and challenges it faces. It then outlines topics to cover, including the state of the US and California economies and how real estate values will be slow to recover. In the final section, it will analyze specifically Tulare County's economic indicators and situation.
EAS Genesis Fund Fact Sheet - January 2010jackfgonzalez
The document summarizes the EAS Genesis Fund, a flexible allocation mutual fund that aims to generate positive returns over 3-year periods while capturing less downside than the market. It allocates across conservative, moderate, and aggressive sub-strategies and uses tactical overlays to hedge and potentially generate alpha. As of January 2010, it has outperformed the S&P 500 since inception in 2008 with less volatility, while its current asset allocation is 36% in a conservative hybrid strategy and 14% in cash.
U.S. Airlines: Their Nascent Recovery and the Benefits to the NationAdina Young
The US airline industry is climbing out of huge financial losses from 2001-2011 totalling $62.3 billion and has achieved modest profitability in recent years. However, airlines remain less profitable than other segments of the travel industry value chain. While operational performance is strong with high on-time arrival rates and low passenger complaint rates, the financial condition of most US airlines remains precarious, with only one currently holding investment-grade credit ratings. New regulations proposed for 2012 threaten to undermine the industry's nascent recovery.
The document analyzes freight costs and identifies store direct shipments as a major factor. Specifically, store direct shipments of non-toy items like optical drives significantly increase freight costs due to their high average sales price compared to toy items. Actions are recommended to stop shipping non-toy items store direct, ship toy items in 10-packs to lower costs, and change the metric for toy item freight out from a percentage of revenue to a cost per unit.
The document provides an overview of housing and labor market trends, with a focus on national trends and trends specific to Nevada. It summarizes that while the national unemployment rate dipped below 9%, recovery in the labor market remains elusive. The Case-Shiller and FHFA home price indices show continued softness in the national housing market. Nationally, mortgage delinquencies dropped in 2010 but over 4.5 million homes remain in distress. Modifications under HAMP decreased and obtaining permanent modifications remains challenging for borrowers. Many states face severe budget shortfalls. In Nevada, the unemployment rate fell below 14% but remains the highest in the country, and house prices are falling to 2003 levels.
Why has multifamily investment been so hot, especially in D.C.? What are some of the underlying economic and demographic fundamentals driving the multifamily market?
This document summarizes a presentation given by Mark Mulhern, Senior Vice President and CFO of Progress Energy, at a Power & Gas Leaders Conference on September 24, 2008. The presentation discusses Progress Energy's strategy of securing its energy future through significant rate base growth, nuclear expansion projects, and maintaining a supportive regulatory environment. It provides an overview of Progress Energy's utilities in North Carolina and Florida, outlines major capital investment projects, and reviews the company's financial position and objectives to achieve steady earnings growth.
The document provides an investor briefing for Bemis Company. It summarizes Bemis' business profile including its global presence, vertical integration, and key financial metrics. The briefing also outlines Bemis' strategic priorities to optimize its scale, grow in target areas like medical packaging, and accelerate innovation in materials and packaging features. Guidance is given for 2013 with adjusted EPS expected between $2.30 to $2.45 and cash flow from operations above $430 million.
The document provides an overview of Tulare County's economic situation. It discusses how Bill Watkins will provide context on the county's economy and challenges it faces. It then outlines topics to cover, including the state of the US and California economies and how real estate values will be slow to recover. In the final section, it will analyze specifically Tulare County's economic indicators and situation.
EAS Genesis Fund Fact Sheet - January 2010jackfgonzalez
The document summarizes the EAS Genesis Fund, a flexible allocation mutual fund that aims to generate positive returns over 3-year periods while capturing less downside than the market. It allocates across conservative, moderate, and aggressive sub-strategies and uses tactical overlays to hedge and potentially generate alpha. As of January 2010, it has outperformed the S&P 500 since inception in 2008 with less volatility, while its current asset allocation is 36% in a conservative hybrid strategy and 14% in cash.
U.S. Airlines: Their Nascent Recovery and the Benefits to the NationAdina Young
The US airline industry is climbing out of huge financial losses from 2001-2011 totalling $62.3 billion and has achieved modest profitability in recent years. However, airlines remain less profitable than other segments of the travel industry value chain. While operational performance is strong with high on-time arrival rates and low passenger complaint rates, the financial condition of most US airlines remains precarious, with only one currently holding investment-grade credit ratings. New regulations proposed for 2012 threaten to undermine the industry's nascent recovery.
This document discusses the strategy and performance of ICICI Group. It outlines opportunities in the growing Indian economy driven by factors like rising incomes and consumption. ICICI's strategy is to enhance its leadership in domestic retail banking while leveraging its corporate relationships and global capabilities in investment banking. It aims to capitalize on opportunities in insurance, asset management, and international banking to serve the Indian diaspora. Key subsidiaries and recent financial highlights are also mentioned.
Tim Pulido, President & CEO with 30 years of restaurant industry experience, presents his outlook for 2012 and the brand strategies necessary to win in the New Normal.
The document discusses the current state of the cattle and feed markets and how they are impacting livestock producers. Corn and feed prices have risen significantly, putting pressure on cattle prices. Livestock producers are receiving lower prices for their cattle while paying higher costs for feed. This supply and demand imbalance has created confusion and challenges for the livestock industry over the next few years until market conditions improve.
The local housing market report for Austin, Texas in the third quarter of 2009 found:
- The median home price was $189,100, down slightly from a year ago but higher than the national median of $177,900.
- Existing home sales growth remained sluggish at -1.9% compared to 5.9% nationally.
- Job losses continued in Austin but at a lower rate than the national average, and the unemployment rate of 7.2% was below the 9.8% national rate.
- Housing affordability was better than historical averages and stronger than the national market due to lower mortgage payments as a percentage of income.
Nevada Association For Court Career Advancement Presentation Finalintegreat
The document provides statistics about Nevada's economy and rankings over the past 10 years. It shows that Nevada ranked #1 in population, employment, and income growth during that period. It also ranks highly in terms of business tax climate and as a destination for retirees. However, more recent data shows Nevada ranking near the bottom in terms of job growth during the recession. Unemployment has risen significantly in Nevada, particularly in Las Vegas.
This document is a submission from Restaurant & Catering Australia to the Australian Government Regulation Taskforce regarding regulatory burdens on the restaurant industry. Some key areas of regulation identified that impose significant burdens include:
- Superannuation requirements
- Food safety regulation including mandatory food safety plans
- Industrial requirements including sole traders/partnerships
- GST compliance due to exemptions for some food items
Recommendations are provided for each area to reduce compliance costs and burdens.
The document discusses marketing trends in Indonesia in 2012 and beyond. It notes the rise of the middle class in Indonesia and changing consumer behaviors. Some key points include the emergence of "Consumer 3000" who have higher buying power, are more knowledgeable and connected; the mass luxury explosion as more products become affordable; and food trends focusing on health, convenience and indulgence. It also discusses the competitive landscape and importance of integrated marketing communications, storytelling and buzz marketing.
This document discusses the economic crisis and recession. It analyzes multiple factors that contributed to the problems, including the housing crisis, overleveraged financial institutions, falling asset prices, and a weak household balance sheet both in the US and globally. It examines trends in areas like inflation, interest rates, home prices, mortgage originations, derivatives, and consumer spending to explain how imbalances developed over time. The document concludes that this crisis is more secular and global in nature rather than a "normal" crisis, and will take time to work through reduction of debt and risk.
The document provides an economic update from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It includes:
1) A summary of FOMC forecasts for real GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation rates for 2012-2014 which generally predict moderate economic growth and contained inflation.
2) Data and charts on components of the economy such as consumption, investment, manufacturing, and lending which show recent trends and fluctuations.
3) The Philadelphia Fed's current and leading economic activity indexes for April 2012 which indicate differing growth predictions across regions in the next 6 months.
CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton Young provides an economic update to the Murrieta Temecula Group and the Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors
This presentation discusses capitalizing on the gold bull market. It provides an overview of Newmont Mining Corporation, including that it is a world leading gold company and the only major US gold company. It also provides financial and operating highlights for 2006, including equity gold sales and costs applicable to sales. Projections and opportunities for 2007 are discussed for various regions and mines, with costs applicable to sales expected to increase approximately 25% compared to 2006 due to rising input costs.
Ángel Ron: Competir en tiempo de crisis: un entorno desafiante para los banco...Banco Popular
The document discusses the challenging environment for retail banks due to deleveraging economies, low interest rates, and deleveraging banks. It summarizes Banco Popular's strategy of adapting ahead of peers by focusing on risk management, liquidity, and solvency during the crisis. It argues that in the current environment of austerity, banks must focus on managing spreads and margins, cost control, risk management, and capital to remain profitable. Banco Popular has demonstrated a robust business model through the economic cycle.
The document contains a business strategy metrics dashboard that tracks key performance indicators such as average days of receivables and payables, cash on hand, customer retention rates, new R&D ideas generated, CRM adoption rates, and average quality assurance scores on a monthly basis. It shows the company met most of its goals around increasing customer retention and CRM adoption rates as well as maintaining high quality standards over the course of the year.
This document provides an economic forecast and analysis for the City of Seattle. It summarizes key factors that led to the current recession, including asset bubbles, cheap credit, loose lending standards, and the bursting of the housing bubble. It then analyzes recent economic indicators and forecasts a major regional recession for the Puget Sound area, with peak job losses of over 30,000. Revenue forecasts predict declines for sales tax, B&O tax, and natural gas utility tax due to weakness in construction, retail, and energy prices.
The document discusses dynamic business planning. It summarizes that traditional planning is periodic rather than continual and does not account for rapidly changing environments. Dynamic planning involves continual communication across the organization, getting stakeholders involved, and planning for uncertainty. It advocates balancing planning and action by considering different scenarios and rapidly adjusting plans in response to feedback and changing conditions.
Small Business Role in Development of EconomyFahad Ali
Small businesses in Pakistan, such as cigarette, paan, and drink shops, make a significant contribution to the country's GDP. Including their revenues could boost economic development and growth. Based on observations of shops in Lahore's Defense area, these small businesses generate average daily incomes of Rs. 2,000-3,500 and monthly profits of Rs. 20,000-25,000, with some larger shops making over Rs. 100,000 per month. Including these revenues in GDP calculations could increase Pakistan's economic performance and progress.
This document provides guidelines for creating an effective business plan, including the purpose and qualities of an effective plan, target audiences, common plan sections and their contents, and tips for the executive summary, company description, product/service, market analysis, marketing plan, operational plan, management team, financial plan, funding, and conclusion sections. The key sections of a business plan are outlined as the executive summary, company description, product/service, market analysis, marketing plan, operational plan, management team, and financial plan. An effective plan clearly presents the business or product, target market, marketing strategy, operational details, management team, and financial projections.
Chapter 20 lc business business the economy com devDave Dempsey
The document provides an overview of community development and economic concepts. It discusses what an economy is and different types of economies. It also examines factors of production and various economic variables that impact businesses. Community development is defined as efforts by local communities to solve economic and social problems. Examples are given of local development projects and benefits they provide. Several organizations that support community development through training, grants and other assistance are also outlined.
Chapter 19 lc business business organisationsDave Dempsey
This document discusses different types of business organizations including sole traders, partnerships, limited companies, public limited companies, cooperatives, franchises, and semi-state bodies. It provides information on their formation, ownership, management, finance, profits, risks, and reasons for changing between different structures. Specifically, it outlines the key advantages and disadvantages of each type of business organization.
This document discusses the strategy and performance of ICICI Group. It outlines opportunities in the growing Indian economy driven by factors like rising incomes and consumption. ICICI's strategy is to enhance its leadership in domestic retail banking while leveraging its corporate relationships and global capabilities in investment banking. It aims to capitalize on opportunities in insurance, asset management, and international banking to serve the Indian diaspora. Key subsidiaries and recent financial highlights are also mentioned.
Tim Pulido, President & CEO with 30 years of restaurant industry experience, presents his outlook for 2012 and the brand strategies necessary to win in the New Normal.
The document discusses the current state of the cattle and feed markets and how they are impacting livestock producers. Corn and feed prices have risen significantly, putting pressure on cattle prices. Livestock producers are receiving lower prices for their cattle while paying higher costs for feed. This supply and demand imbalance has created confusion and challenges for the livestock industry over the next few years until market conditions improve.
The local housing market report for Austin, Texas in the third quarter of 2009 found:
- The median home price was $189,100, down slightly from a year ago but higher than the national median of $177,900.
- Existing home sales growth remained sluggish at -1.9% compared to 5.9% nationally.
- Job losses continued in Austin but at a lower rate than the national average, and the unemployment rate of 7.2% was below the 9.8% national rate.
- Housing affordability was better than historical averages and stronger than the national market due to lower mortgage payments as a percentage of income.
Nevada Association For Court Career Advancement Presentation Finalintegreat
The document provides statistics about Nevada's economy and rankings over the past 10 years. It shows that Nevada ranked #1 in population, employment, and income growth during that period. It also ranks highly in terms of business tax climate and as a destination for retirees. However, more recent data shows Nevada ranking near the bottom in terms of job growth during the recession. Unemployment has risen significantly in Nevada, particularly in Las Vegas.
This document is a submission from Restaurant & Catering Australia to the Australian Government Regulation Taskforce regarding regulatory burdens on the restaurant industry. Some key areas of regulation identified that impose significant burdens include:
- Superannuation requirements
- Food safety regulation including mandatory food safety plans
- Industrial requirements including sole traders/partnerships
- GST compliance due to exemptions for some food items
Recommendations are provided for each area to reduce compliance costs and burdens.
The document discusses marketing trends in Indonesia in 2012 and beyond. It notes the rise of the middle class in Indonesia and changing consumer behaviors. Some key points include the emergence of "Consumer 3000" who have higher buying power, are more knowledgeable and connected; the mass luxury explosion as more products become affordable; and food trends focusing on health, convenience and indulgence. It also discusses the competitive landscape and importance of integrated marketing communications, storytelling and buzz marketing.
This document discusses the economic crisis and recession. It analyzes multiple factors that contributed to the problems, including the housing crisis, overleveraged financial institutions, falling asset prices, and a weak household balance sheet both in the US and globally. It examines trends in areas like inflation, interest rates, home prices, mortgage originations, derivatives, and consumer spending to explain how imbalances developed over time. The document concludes that this crisis is more secular and global in nature rather than a "normal" crisis, and will take time to work through reduction of debt and risk.
The document provides an economic update from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It includes:
1) A summary of FOMC forecasts for real GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation rates for 2012-2014 which generally predict moderate economic growth and contained inflation.
2) Data and charts on components of the economy such as consumption, investment, manufacturing, and lending which show recent trends and fluctuations.
3) The Philadelphia Fed's current and leading economic activity indexes for April 2012 which indicate differing growth predictions across regions in the next 6 months.
CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton Young provides an economic update to the Murrieta Temecula Group and the Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors
This presentation discusses capitalizing on the gold bull market. It provides an overview of Newmont Mining Corporation, including that it is a world leading gold company and the only major US gold company. It also provides financial and operating highlights for 2006, including equity gold sales and costs applicable to sales. Projections and opportunities for 2007 are discussed for various regions and mines, with costs applicable to sales expected to increase approximately 25% compared to 2006 due to rising input costs.
Ángel Ron: Competir en tiempo de crisis: un entorno desafiante para los banco...Banco Popular
The document discusses the challenging environment for retail banks due to deleveraging economies, low interest rates, and deleveraging banks. It summarizes Banco Popular's strategy of adapting ahead of peers by focusing on risk management, liquidity, and solvency during the crisis. It argues that in the current environment of austerity, banks must focus on managing spreads and margins, cost control, risk management, and capital to remain profitable. Banco Popular has demonstrated a robust business model through the economic cycle.
The document contains a business strategy metrics dashboard that tracks key performance indicators such as average days of receivables and payables, cash on hand, customer retention rates, new R&D ideas generated, CRM adoption rates, and average quality assurance scores on a monthly basis. It shows the company met most of its goals around increasing customer retention and CRM adoption rates as well as maintaining high quality standards over the course of the year.
This document provides an economic forecast and analysis for the City of Seattle. It summarizes key factors that led to the current recession, including asset bubbles, cheap credit, loose lending standards, and the bursting of the housing bubble. It then analyzes recent economic indicators and forecasts a major regional recession for the Puget Sound area, with peak job losses of over 30,000. Revenue forecasts predict declines for sales tax, B&O tax, and natural gas utility tax due to weakness in construction, retail, and energy prices.
The document discusses dynamic business planning. It summarizes that traditional planning is periodic rather than continual and does not account for rapidly changing environments. Dynamic planning involves continual communication across the organization, getting stakeholders involved, and planning for uncertainty. It advocates balancing planning and action by considering different scenarios and rapidly adjusting plans in response to feedback and changing conditions.
Small Business Role in Development of EconomyFahad Ali
Small businesses in Pakistan, such as cigarette, paan, and drink shops, make a significant contribution to the country's GDP. Including their revenues could boost economic development and growth. Based on observations of shops in Lahore's Defense area, these small businesses generate average daily incomes of Rs. 2,000-3,500 and monthly profits of Rs. 20,000-25,000, with some larger shops making over Rs. 100,000 per month. Including these revenues in GDP calculations could increase Pakistan's economic performance and progress.
This document provides guidelines for creating an effective business plan, including the purpose and qualities of an effective plan, target audiences, common plan sections and their contents, and tips for the executive summary, company description, product/service, market analysis, marketing plan, operational plan, management team, financial plan, funding, and conclusion sections. The key sections of a business plan are outlined as the executive summary, company description, product/service, market analysis, marketing plan, operational plan, management team, and financial plan. An effective plan clearly presents the business or product, target market, marketing strategy, operational details, management team, and financial projections.
Chapter 20 lc business business the economy com devDave Dempsey
The document provides an overview of community development and economic concepts. It discusses what an economy is and different types of economies. It also examines factors of production and various economic variables that impact businesses. Community development is defined as efforts by local communities to solve economic and social problems. Examples are given of local development projects and benefits they provide. Several organizations that support community development through training, grants and other assistance are also outlined.
Chapter 19 lc business business organisationsDave Dempsey
This document discusses different types of business organizations including sole traders, partnerships, limited companies, public limited companies, cooperatives, franchises, and semi-state bodies. It provides information on their formation, ownership, management, finance, profits, risks, and reasons for changing between different structures. Specifically, it outlines the key advantages and disadvantages of each type of business organization.
Audio available here https://archive.org/details/PracticalBusinessPlanning_542
This is a presentation of my 25 years of experience operating small businesses that won many awards including sharing the top 10 Best Employers Award with Nokia, Cisco and Apple from the Australian Graduate School of Business and the Australian Financial Review.
Franchising has a long history dating back to medieval times, but is widely believed to have started with Albert Singer and the Singer Sewing Machine Company in the 1850s. Singer created a network of dealers who paid a fee to sell sewing machines within their territories, establishing one of the first franchise models. Franchising expanded in the late 1800s with industries like breweries and utilities. Modern business format franchising became popular post-World War II with chains like McDonald's. The Philippine franchising industry has grown significantly in the last 20 years from around 50 players to over 1,300 franchise concepts today, generating $11 billion for the economy.
This document provides an overview of marketing strategies and tactics for small businesses. It defines marketing as everything done to promote a product or service to potential customers. It emphasizes understanding customers, conducting market research, developing a marketing plan including goals, strategies and tactics. The document discusses branding, positioning, and the marketing communications mix of advertising, sales promotion, public relations and direct marketing. It stresses measuring the results of marketing efforts and provides additional resources for small businesses.
In this presentation, we will help you understand about franchising, history, types, various advantages and disadvantages of franchising.
To know more about Welingkar School’s Distance Learning Program and courses offered, visit: http://www.welingkaronline.org/distance-learning/online-mba.html
The document provides an overview of franchising, including what a franchise is, examples of franchises, factors for success or failure, and revenue streams. It discusses that a franchise involves a franchisor granting a license to a franchisee to use their business model and brand name. Successful franchises view it as a long-term partnership, provide comprehensive training, undertake research and development, and tie franchisor income to franchisee success. Now may be a good time to franchise as people seek new opportunities and franchises generally have higher success rates than independent businesses.
The document provides an overview of Oklahoma's state budget trends from FY 2002 to FY 2010. It finds that while the state saw revenue growth during economic boom years of FY 2006 to FY 2008, budget cuts in previous years and ongoing tax cuts have left the state underfunding most public services. The state now faces major revenue shortfalls in FY 2010 as the recession has significantly reduced tax collections, with the shortfall for the full year estimated at $700 million or 13.7% below appropriated amounts.
The document discusses the potential economic effects of President Obama's tax plan in West Virginia. It finds that from 2011 to 2020, West Virginia would lose an average of 3,712 jobs annually, see household disposable income reduced by $1,187 on average each year, and individual income taxes increased by $1.61 billion in total over that period. The tax hikes proposed in the plan would significantly impact the state's economy, particularly in terms of job losses and changes to personal income levels.
The document summarizes Bill Johnson's presentation at the Morgan Stanley Global Electricity & Energy Conference on April 3, 2008. The presentation outlines Progress Energy's strategy to secure its energy future through operational excellence, growth prospects like rate base expansion, and maintaining constructive regulation. It highlights Progress Energy's two regulated utilities with strong growth prospects and discusses key strategic issues like US climate change policy and needed new baseload capacity like the proposed Levy County nuclear project.
The document is a financial update from the CFO of Pitney Bowes to investors regarding the company's financial performance and forecasts. It provides details on revenue, earnings, expenses and other metrics for 2005-2008. It also discusses growth initiatives across business segments and transition initiatives to improve processes and reduce costs. The company expects continued revenue growth of 3-13% across segments in 2008 and beyond.
The document is a financial update from the CFO of Pitney Bowes to investors regarding the company's financial performance. It provides details on revenue, earnings, expenses and other metrics for 2005-2008. It also discusses growth initiatives across different business segments and transition initiatives to improve processes and reduce costs. Long term targets are provided for revenue growth of 8-15% and EPS growth of 6-13% annually.
Similar to The U.S. Economy & Small Business Credit (20)
1. The U.S. Economy & Small Business Credit
Eugenio J. Aleman, Director and Senior Economist
March 14, 2013
2. Let’s Look at the Federal Government
Federal Budget Surplus or Deficit
12-Month Moving Sum in Billions of Dollars
$400 $400
$200 $200
$0 $0
-$200 -$200
Fiscal Conservatism? Where? -$400 -$400
When? -$600 -$600
-$800 -$800
-$1,000 -$1,000
-$1,200 -$1,200
-$1,400 -$1,400
Surplus or Deficit: Jan @ -$1,030 Billion
-$1,600 -$1,600
67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 2
3. Real GDP Growth
U.S. Real GDP
Bars = Compound Annual Rate Line = Yr/Yr % Change
10% 10%
8% 8%
6% 6%
4% 4%
2% 2%
U.S. real GDP growth recovered 0% 0%
somewhat, but remains weak
-2% -2%
-4% -4%
-6% -6%
Real GDP: Q4 @ 0.1%
-8% -8%
Real GDP: Q4 @ 1.6%
-10% -10%
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 3
4. U.S. Nonfarm Employment
Nonfarm Employment Change
Change in Employment, In Thousands
600 600
400 400
200 200
0 0
Employment turned the corner
in October of 2010, but it is still -200 -200
weak
-400 -400
-600 -600
-800 -800
Monthly Change: Feb @ 236.0 Thousand
-1,000 -1,000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 4
5. U.S. Employment By Industry
U.S. Employment by Industry
Year-over-Year Percent Change of 3-M Moving Average
Total Nonfarm
Trade, Trans. & Utilities
Government
Educ. & Health Svcs.
While employment growth has Prof. & Bus. Svcs.
More
been broad based, the Number of
Leisure & Hospitality
government sector has Employees
continued to struggle Manufacturing
Financial Activities Less
Construction
Other Services
February 2013
Information
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 5
6. Government Employment
U.S. Government Employment Composition
State
Government,
23%
It is not the Federal
Government!
Local
Government,
64%
Federal
Government,
13%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 6
7. Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
12% 12%
10% 10%
8% 8%
Not as high as during the 1980s
recession, but more damaging
6% 6%
4% 4%
Unemployment Rate: Feb @ 7.7%
2% 2%
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 7
8. The Employment Situation
Labor Force Participation Rate
16 Years and Over, Seasonally Adjusted
68% 68%
67% 67%
66% 66%
One of the reasons for the
decline in the unemployment
rate is tied to the drop-off in the 65% 65%
labor force participation rate
64% 64%
Labor Force Participation Rate: Feb @ 63.5%
63% 63%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 8
9. Mean Duration of Unemployment
Mean Duration Unemployment
Average Weeks Unemployed
44 44
Average Duration of Unemployment: Feb @ 36.9
40 40
36 36
32 32
Duration of unemployment 28 28
shows a struggling labor market 24 24
20 20
16 16
12 12
8 8
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 9
10. Unemployment by Education Level
Unemployment Rate by Education Level
February 2013
14% 14%
12% 12%
10% 10%
8% 8%
College graduates have the edge
even in the worst recession since 6% 6%
the depression
4% 4%
2% 2%
0% 0%
No High School High School Some College College Degree
Diploma Diploma
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 10
11. Consumer Price Index
U.S. Consumer Price Index
Both Series are 3-Month Moving Averages
9% 9%
6% 6%
3% 3%
0% 0%
Consumer prices are slowing
once again -3% -3%
-6% -6%
-9% -9%
CPI 3-Month Annual Rate: Jan @ 0.3%
CPI Year-over-Year: Jan @ 1.7%
-12% -12%
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 11
12. The U.S. Economy
On this side of the wall:
Inflation & stagnation =
stagflation
On this side of the wall:
1930’s depression/
Japan-like depression
The Humpty-Dumpty Economy
The U.S. Economy sat on a wall,
The U.S. Economy had a great fall.
All the king's Treasury-men,
And all the king's Federal Reserve-men,
Couldn't put The U.S. Economy together again.
Economics 12
21. Your House As Seen By:
And…
Your County’s Tax Assessor…
Economics
22. New Home Sales
New Home Sales
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, In Thousands
1,500 1,500
1,300 1,300
1,100 1,100
900 900
New home sales are still low but
improving
700 700
500 500
300 300
New Home Sales: Jan @ 437,000
3-Month Moving Average: Jan @ 402,667
100 100
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 22
23. Housing Starts
Housing Starts
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, In Millions
2.4 2.4
2.0 2.0
1.6 1.6
As well as housing starts 1.2 1.2
0.8 0.8
0.4 0.4
Housing Starts: Jan @ 890K
0.0 0.0
87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 23
24. Existing Home Sales
Existing Single-Family Home Resales
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate - In Millions
7.0 7.0
6.0 6.0
5.0 5.0
Existing home sales are
relatively strong
4.0 4.0
3.0 3.0
Existing Home Sales: Jan @ 4.3 Million
2.0 2.0
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 24
25. Home Prices
Home Prices
Year-over-Year Percentage Change
24% 24%
20% 20%
16% 16%
12% 12%
8% 8%
4% 4%
Home prices are finally showing 0% 0%
signs of recovery
-4% -4%
-8% -8%
-12% -12%
Median Sale Price: Jan @ $174,100
-16% Median Sale Price, 3-M Mov Avg: Jan @ 10.9% -16%
FHFA Purchase Only Index: Dec @ 5.8%
-20% -20%
S&P Case-Shiller Composite-10: Dec @ 5.9%
-24% -24%
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
Source: National Association of Realtors, FHFA, S&P Case-Shiller and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 25
26. Home Mortgages
Real Estate Lending
By Commerical Banks, Year-over-Year Percent Change
25% 25%
20% 20%
15% 15%
Home mortgages have been
10% 10%
declining for the past four years
and are just recently showing
5% 5%
some improvement
0% 0%
-5% -5%
Real Estate Loans: Jan @ 1.3%
-10% -10%
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 26
27. Negative Equity
Negative Equity Mortgages - By State
Percent of Mortgages Outstanding
Utah 18.5
As of Q3 2012
Washington 18.6
Oregon 18.6
New Jersey 19.9
Virginia 20.0
New Hampshire 20.3
Rhode Island 22.1
Idaho 22.3
Maryland 22.9
O…M…G…? Ohio 23.8
Illinois 25.4
California 28.3
Michigan 32.0
Georgia 35.6
Arizona 38.6
Florida 42.1
Nevada 56.9
US 22.0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Source: FHFA and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 27
29. Small Business Sentiment
Regulation, taxes and poor
sales as lead concerns
Source: NFIB and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 29
30. Small Business Sentiment
Small Businesses are still
feeling as if in recession
Source: NFIB and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 30
31. Small Business Sentiment
Expectations of the future
are very weak, but the same
thing happened in the
1990s
Source: NFIB and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 31
32. Small Business Sentiment
Small Business surveys
remain weak
Source: NFIB and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 32
33. Small Business Sentiment
Small Business following
consumer confidence very
closely
Source: NFIB and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 33
34. Small Business Sentiment
According to Small
Businesses, the economy
remains in recession
Source: NFIB and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 34
35. Small Business Sentiment
It is clear that weak sales
are behind the weakness
felt by Small Businesses
Source: NFIB and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 35
36. Small Business Credit
Small Businesses are not
borrowing
Source: Federal Reserve Bank and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 36
37. Small Business Credit
Credit access has improved
but remains above pre-
recession levels
Source: Federal Reserve Bank and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 37
38. Small Business Credit
Credit demand is weak but
improving
Source: Federal Reserve Bank and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 38
39. Small Business Credit
Lending standards have
loosened considerably
Source: Federal Reserve Bank and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 39
40. ISM Manufacturing Index
ISM Manufacturing Composite Index
Diffusion Index
65 65
60 60
55 55
Manufacturing has weakened 50 50
but it is back to expansion
territory 45 45
40 40
35 35
ISM Manufacturing Index: Feb @ 54.2
12-Month Moving Average: Feb @ 51.8
30 30
87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
Source: Institute for Supply Management and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 40
41. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
ISM Non-Manufacturing
Composite Index
65 65
60 60
55 55
But the service economy
50 50
continues to move along
45 45
40 40
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index SA: Feb @ 56.0
35 35
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Source: Institute for Supply Management and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 41
43. Household Debt
Household Debt Service Ratio
Debt Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
14.5% 14.5%
14.0% 14.0%
13.5% 13.5%
13.0% 13.0%
12.5% 12.5%
U.S. Households are ready to
start borrowing 12.0% 12.0%
11.5% 11.5%
11.0% 11.0%
10.5% 10.5%
DSR: Q3 @ 10.6%
10.0% 10.0%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Source: The Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 43
44. Consumer Confidence
Consumer Confidence Index
Conference Board
160 160
140 140
120 120
100 100
Consumer confidence is still
very weak for a strong recovery 80 80
60 60
40 Confidence Yr/Yr % Chg: Feb @ -2.8% 40
Confidence: Feb @ 69.6
12-Month Moving Average: Feb @ 66.6
20 20
87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
Source: The Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 44
45. Personal Saving Rate
Personal Saving Rate
Disp. Personal Income Less Spending as a % of Disp. Income
15% 15%
12% 12%
9% 9%
The best news is that the saving
rate has improved
6% 6%
3% 3%
Personal Saving Rate: Jan @ 2.4%
Personal Saving Rate, 12-Month M.A.: Jan @ 3.8%
0% 0%
60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 45
46. Mortgage and Treasury Rates
Conventional Mortgage Rate vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield
Percent
7.0% 7.0%
6.0% 6.0%
5.0% 5.0%
Mortgage interest rates are 4.0% 4.0%
starting to edge up again but
from a very low base
3.0% 3.0%
2.0% 2.0%
Conventional 30-Year Fixed Mortg. Rate: Feb @ 3.53%
10-Year Yield: Feb @ 2.02%
1.0% 1.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 46
47. Global Forecast
Wells Fargo International Economic Forecast
(Year-over-Year Percent C hange)
GDP CPI
2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
Global (PPP weights) 2.7% 2.8% 3.7% 4.2% 3.9% 4.3%
Global (Market Exchange Rates) 1.5% 1.6% 2.4% n/a n/a n/a
1
Advanced Economies 1.2% 1.2% 2.3% 2.1% 1.3% 1.8%
United States 2.2% 2.0% 2.3% 2.1% 1.6% 2.1%
Eurozone -0.5% -0.1% 1.8% 2.5% 1.3% 1.7%
United Kingdom 0.2% 1.1% 2.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.1%
Growth will remain positive but Japan 1.9% 0.4% 2.5% 0.0% -0.2% 0.1%
Korea 2.1% 2.8% 4.3% 2.2% 2.6% 3.1%
weak Canada 1.8% 1.5% 2.6% 1.5% 1.1% 2.0%
1
Developing Economies 4.4% 4.7% 5.4% 6.7% 7.0% 7.2%
China 7.7% 8.1% 8.4% 2.7% 3.0% 3.5%
India 5.0% 5.7% 6.5% 9.7% 9.0% 9.3%
Mexico 4.1% 3.3% 3.4% 4.1% 4.1% 4.8%
Brazil 0.8% 2.2% 4.2% 5.4% 6.3% 6.1%
Russia 3.4% 3.1% 3.7% 5.1% 6.0% 5.5%
Forecast as of: February 6, 2013
1
Aggregated Using PPP Weights
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics 47